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I agree Mr Betyar but the latest one at 6.6 pence (circa CAD 0.10) with strong possibility that one could make 6-7X or more over the next 18 months - 2 years is a pretty good bet....Nevertheless reading the rest of the analyst's comments I liked confirmation of the j.v.'s imminent start of the work programme.. ..and news of the revamped NT government's backing of the Beetaloo project. I also welcomed the more detailed explanation of 'proration' units including why POQ et al are insisting on it in the new agreement.

What I'm looking for next is a more detailed summary of the new partners' j.v. agreement as and when it is signed ....and before the end of the year a new investors' presentation plus news of Management's intentions to present the case to Bryan Sheffield's private equity investors in the US and to other specialist oil and gas funds in North America.

In the meantime I found the Herald Tribune article that was highlighted on the Empire Investor Relations page worth a read and I recommend everyone on this board should sign up for all news releases from TBN and EEG if they have not already done so.

Cenkos issue a BUY recommendation for their clients on Falcon shares this morning.

I hope Mr Betyar I might have answered part of your question below. ...We're definitely better off with Bryan Sheffield leading the j.v. on the next round rather than Mr Calabria. On the other hand it would have been even nicer if Bryan Sheffield would have decided to do the next stage solely with us, but it was not to be. Very clearly Bryan Sheffield concluded rightly at the the time he had little or no chance to get such a favourable personal deal with the Falcon team.....

I have sympathy with you Mr Wetwater. It is sometimes quite difficult to ignore some of the trolls' foolish posts on this board. On the other hand I learned early on from others it's much more rewarding to simply filter these posts out.

As for prospects for Falcon what has not changed since September 20. We investors, are still waiting for the two horizontal wells in Phase III to commence drilling. ...Of course we lost 5-6 weeks sorting out the j.v. but given the twin-news that we'll be starting before the end of this month and the Tamboran partnership's confidence that some of that time will be made up, we should still hear some news in mid-January 2023.

I think all parties Including Bryan Sheffield) are confident (and maybe more confident) now that everyone is on board together that the two horizontal wells will yield good results. What I hope we'll also receive are indications that drill times can be shortened and drill costs can be reduced. Success on both counts will certainly improve probability of commercial development of the Basin and boost the value of Falcon's properties in the first half of next year.

The new j,v. too gives us a little extra money in 2023 and much improved internal checks and protection for us as the minority partner in the j.v. In essence it protects us against other parties wasting our money and backing us into a corner.
What it's also going to do if all goes well in Phase III is to make Falcon a prime takeover target next year and give Falcon's management a lot more options on a refinancing or an outright sale.

In summary POQ and the board have successfully bought the company more time this month (when the tectonic plates move), and kept us all very much in the game.

Mr Smallfish9 it normally pays to filter out much of the rubbish that Mr Oleo writes….

i fully agreewith your conclusions Mr Newtofo

Good idea Mr Longknife but in the meantime don't waste any time reading posts by persons who sold their Falcon shares at least 12 months ago.

IMHO a sensible approach is to roll forward in your mind and anticipate what might be Falcon's position in 6-7 months time. The 2 horizontal wells would have been fracked and the partners will have the results of the drilling. It might not be as good news as we all hope but on the other hand the odds are the news will be very favourable. If the latter, Falcon's position would have exponentially improved and give the Company many more options than it has today...In the meantime what the board has achieved is to not only successfully buy the Company more time (and bit more cash) but also enhance the internal checks and the 'optionality' of the parties in the whole deal , and in particular protect the minority investor (Falcon) from early dismissal.

Mr Hardrock will also tell you above all the first of the two horizontal wells will now be spudded before the end of the month.

One final point don't overlook that royalties on Falcon's acreage total 4% (2% for BS and 1% for Bayliss and 1% for the local people) and 9.3% on the Tamboran partnership land (1% for the local people, 1% for Bayliss, 5.5^ for Origin and 2.3% for BS). That could be very positive for our company next year...

That’s wrong Mr Longknife. If you had listened to the call you would have heard POQ give a strong hint who the party was. I think the numbers you are using are misleading you…,

Mr Nervesof steel a recording will be available....

I'm looking forward now to the 10 o'clock call this morning. On the face of it Falcon has secured (through extra funding) their position until completion of the original Phase III, built in more internal checks in the (new) joint venture and taken steps to ensure the Company retains all its options next year post the drilling results.

I'm guessing where Falcon are today (pre the drilling and fracking of the two horizontal wells) proved too hard a sell in a 4 week period in the uncertain 'risk-off' markets. That hopefully will be a lot less so in 6 months time, and we can add Bryan Sheffield and/or the 'Tamboran' partnership to the list of big O&G players and the long list of national oil companies in SE Asia who will have the necessary time for their DD. At that stage Falcon Australia's 22.5% share will be worth relatively more than TBN's share in the Beetaloo if drilling results meet Mr Ritter's high expectations and odds on the probability of Beetaloo commercial development would have improved.....

Mr Wetwater, It will depend on the exact wording in the Agreement. Under normal circumstances Falcon Australia would have been given the option of offering a cash equivalent. What's more if it were seen that Falcon was offering Origin some certainty in reducing their write off at their next accounting year end CEO Calabria would look rather foolish if he wanted to challenge it in court.

Have a read also of the Cenkos report on the 20 September. In the meantime what's the red herring is what Bryan Sheffield paid Falcon earlier this year and the value he's agreed with Mr Ritter.

What I think is worth working out Mr Newtofo is how much Origin have valued their 5.5% royalty. What I'm effectively looking for are the figures Origin have in their spread sheet for total commitment on the Origin/Falcon j.v.,the AU$ 80 million unspent at end July 2022, monies receivable under the 'Tamboran' deal plus the 5.5% royalty and how much Origin told its shareholders they expect to write off in their books if the 'Tamboran' deal is completed.

IMHO the figure that Origin.assumes for the royalty is the figure than any court would expect Falcon to lay on the table in their matched bid.

And my understanding and I'm sure you picked up over the years the same is that POQ has kept particularly close to half a dozen players helped of course by the fact that they've wanted to keep close to Falcon too.Fortunately the company has also kept its own data room fully up to date and on the accounting and legal side kept everything clean. Our CFO is going to have a very helpful role in the next few weeks and it's fortunate too that BS topped up our working capital.

Of course not ..Mr Scinceday1. Origin is not in a position to sell to 'Tamboran' and Falcon Australia has until 19 October 2022 to have in place an MOU with a third party(ies).

Mr Wetwater, the answer to your question surely is Falcon needs the two horizontal wells drilled and fracked. Value can only be created with the results.

Absolutely right Mr Newtofo. Falcon whatever happens is carried for the 2 planned horizontal wells. But note too that Mr Sheffield's Newco who are partnering TBN in the proposed deal are also being carried in the 2 wells.

The more I study the terms the more I realise that Bryan Sheffield would have been swayed by the better terms he could extract from the Ritter gang compared with what would likely have been on the table from Falcon - another good example being the 2.3% royalty sweetener on the Origin acreage, but whatOrigin and Mr Sheffield have done ihas raised the hurdle that the Ritter gang must overcome if the Beetaloo Basin is to be commercially developed.

In the rush to push this deal through very clearly the Tamboran parties have taken a flyer on who the Falcon have been engaging with in recent years. The break-up with Hess historically was more one individual, since departed, who underestimated POQ. The two companies have always stayed close. So has one of the British companies, Santos and Connocco Phillips and one of Pioneer's closest rivals in the US. Another very interested party has been Inpex. And if the Falcon deal is going to be done in stages, then post the fracking of the 2 horizontal wells there will be a queue of national oil companies in south and south east Asia who will commit to undertake the work to go through the data room to work out how a deal might work for them, simply because they won't be up against a tight pipeline. The latter will be interested too in long term contracts..And what I further anticipate is that Falcon would have noted too a drilling company's willingness to fund part of the cost of the two horizontal wells themselves.....

Like Mr Newtofo and a few others I'm convinced that this deal was done behind the back of Falcon, and Mr Ritter and his gang are now preying that Falcon cannot make any use of their exclusivity that they now find themselves. You can actually see Mr Ritter's desperation in the TBN broker's report this morning when it exaggerates the significance of TBN's MOU and boasts too about its relationship with its j.v. partner Santos despite their legal fisticuffs and the two parties falling out, and the local people on its properties.

Notwithstanding that BS will not want to lose the prize because he picked the wrong partner partly because he gave too much credence to Mr Calabria's argument that a Russian's c.3.5% interest in the original Falcon/Origin j.v. (which had been effectively dealt with by the US government in 2018) somehow ruled Falcon out.

If BS now wants to pivot again he of course has the right to do so but he can expect that a gracious Falcon will in future require further checks and balances in order to encourage him not to let them down again. Leaving aside emotions and personalities I'm guessing that's one of the easier deals to put together but there will have to be some give and take.

Falcon's number one item on its agenda is to complete the Phase III programme where it has a carried interest and then be able to chose what it should do next. What it doesn't want is to be boxed in, in six or nine months time by the Ritter gang who very clearly have earned their dreadful record down under with the Australian Government's senate making its views now crystal clear..

Mr Longknife I think you miss my point. The analyst has set out what Tamboran could achieve if its Origin deal goes through. Of course it does not what if the deal does not go through. In fact it doesn’t even mention that Origin is not yet in a position to complete its sale.

What I had hoped that you might glean from the report is what would be the effect on Falcon shares if POQ and the team can put something together. And I had hoped that you would have not overlooked either the relative strength of Falcon’s position relative to TBN’s given the different levels of royalties on the 4.6 million acres in the Beetaloo.

Personally I believe success will more depend on the board getting the balance right between risk and reward and being seen to be not overplaying their hand. It’s also going to be about our Board’s ultimate decision when weighing up the pros and cons on whether they should set out to finance now the next three years or should they do it in stages.

One final point….What I got most out of the report is TBN is not relying on Helmrich and Payne (who are described as the largest but not the best player in the US) to deliver lower drilling costs. It doesn’t therefore give TBN an advantage. And in this context IMHO the Falcon Board traditionally has had vey close links to the US market which will working in its favour in the few weeks.

Mr Longknife can i recommend you read the two Hannam analyst's reports published in London this morning which can be accessed through the Tamboran Investor Relations page.

The reports are very bullish on Tamboran's prospects, despite their royalty liabilities on their existing acreage and their new acreage if the Origin deal completes.On the latter TBN are paying 1% to the local people, 5.5% to Origin and 2.3% to Brian Sheffield. or 8.8% in total. The comparative figure on Falcon's acreage is 3%.

Dear oh dear Mr Oleo you do deserve to be continued to be called out again - this time by Mr Beetaloo. I’m now going to do what I should have done before and filter you out.