Member Info for BorntoBouggie

Hi Mr Sneakysnake,...like Mr Newtofo I remain bullish on this stock, although i recognise of course that my opportunity to monetize my asset is still dependent on future drilling results.
From my look-out:
A) Empire remains interesting to ORG and FOG,. Its fracing results during the 3Q from their wet gas well not far from our property will heighten further interest in the Beetaloo Basin..
B) Tamboran has lost near all credibility on the ASX. They've fallen out with Santos and they have only possibly one last spin with their Maverick well. It was probably not the best investment made by the Sheffield family in recent periods. Only positive for them. I suspect, is that it put them on notice of a possible deal with FOG over their royalty option.
C) The Bayliss family decision not to allow FOG to roll-over the royalty option at a price linked to the cost of money ultimately occurred because they concluded the odds that the Beetaloo is now going to be commercially developed has significantly improved. Fortunate for us therefore that POQ was able to strike such a good deal with our new shareholder.
D) ORG was slow to realise that suitors were unlikely to look seriously at their farm down deal before they could see the results of this year's drilling program.
E) FOG had significant input into the revised 2022 ORG/FOG drilling program. Analysts down under have welcomed the greater emphasis on now achieving key objectives in 2022 and making it easier for the companies and/or others to plan for next year.
F) Analysts down under confidently expect the wells will be spudded during the 3Q with first results by the end of the year. The location of the wells means the work will not be hampered by the start of the rainy season.
G) Analysts argue that upside for LNG is much greater than Brent oil. Despite this would-be suitors will look for evidence that the cost of drilling wells in the Basin can/will come down.
H) After the Federal election Down Under the political climate remains positive and there's no change in the level of political support in the NT.
I) It's clearly a positive that the partners are seriously planning for first shipments in the next 2 years. At the very least if we get good flows at the end of this year suitors will be further attracted by the prospect of early payback.
J) FOG's successful additional capital raise gives management more flexibility at the end of the year either to go another round or hold-out for a premium offer next year.
K) On balance potential upside for all FOG shareholders has clearly increased this year, despite the rising cost of money. The hurdle rate for commercial development of the Basin has also further reduced. UK shareholders have the additional bonus of currency movements in their favour.
L) If we do get positive news at the end of the year more analysts will cover the stock and the ability to buy and sell will significantly improve.

Just for the record , l’m very pleased indeed with both appointments to the board. Those stepping down have done good service but we’re now in a new era and different skills will be required.

POQ’s tenure at the helm has been characterised at every juncture by his clever moves to keep the company’s options open this month, next month, 12 months forward and over even longer periods . When Hess sought to ‘blackmail’ us early on in his tenure during the j/v he expertly took them on and made the timely switch to Origin….when the Moratorium (and then Covid)caused us long delays after 2016 again he was quick on his feet to get new funding in and retain our position last year and this etc etc. And I have little doubt his quick action when BS came a calling has put our company in its strongest position we’ve been in for a very long time.

Origin has flagged they would like to complete a significant farm down of their stake in the Beetaloo in 2022. Many bees are around the honey pot. Many of them are also contemplating what to do with all the retail holders of Falcon shares and how relevant is Tamboran and Empire.

Quite clearly our Board has reached the view first to redesign the j/v drilling programme so we can firstly a) optimise what we might learn from the 2022 exercise, b) expand further our knowledge of the site and c) increase the prospect of provable reserves,…and secondly put us in a position that if we do not get ourselves a’good offer’ for our assets we can successfully stay in the game in 2023 or longer with the prospect of further ratcheting up the shares’ value,

Biggest boost to the value of our asset will come when the Market perceives commercial development is not a 1 in 10 chance but a 50% probability…,

The full Cenkos report is of course very good news and echoes what some of us like you Mr Newtofo have been expressing during the past 12 months. I’m full of praise too of POQ’s latest news release this morning that was wonderfully understated unlike some of the Bruner nonsense from the distant past. In fact I’m sure the latter would not have gone unnoticed by BS either, given his recent experience with Tamboran before Christmas last year. We’re not going to need 3 ‘minnows’ longer term operating in the Beetaloo with 3 CEO’s, 3 CFO’s, company secretaries, public relations experts, auditors, SE fees etc etc…

However not everything has gone 100% our way this year. The higher liquid gas prices and the strengthening dollar on the one hand increased our odds that we might soon have a commercial find but on the other we experienced that the Baylis family became more difficult to negotiate with an extension to the royalty. BS also spotted this but POQ fortunately was also wise to the changing situation and extracted nicely from BS an agreement to subscribe for new shares at a premium….and what’s more BS used hisconnection to help us to bring Tom Layman on board.

Today’s news also indicates further progress and yet another signal, one of many in the last 12 months, that the Company is firmly on the front foot. The programme has been nicely tweaked and we’re clearly using some of our new funds to ensure we follow through better on our successes last Autumn.

It’s been a long wait but if we can prove to the Market that the Beetaloo is a commercial find Falcon shares will be significantly higher by the end of the year…

Mr Wetwater I have slightly different reading of the latest press release. Obviously POQ has put matters straight but I think it's more fair to point out that the Origin PR team had two goes trying to make an accurate comment on this in recent weeks but each time lack of understanding of general accounting or some other reason precluded them from stating the facts. ...Origin is not in partnership with an entity in which a Russian entity has a direct investment. Secondly Lamesa's investment in the whole Beetaloo project (assuming Origin meets all their legal commitments) is c.3.42% only and is subject to US and Canadian (since 2018), and now UK and Australian sanctions in March 2022. And thirdly Lamesa have no involvement whatsoever in the management of the project. If matters remain unchanged and there is an offer for the shares of Falcon Oil and Gas in future i have no concern that the Authorities in the UK and/or Canada will have the means to ensure that the value of Lamesa shares are not credited to the owner's account.

Nevertheless the mess with the Origin press releases however stupid do not come close to the outcry created this week by the Tamboran (TBN) PR team and the company's senior management. Investors on the ASX have obviously taken the view that Mr Joel Riddle comes from the Marc Bruner school in the US and have dismissed his latest comments and presentation as simply not credible. I don't think he'll get a second chance and the best he can hope for (if his Maverick well works) is that the Sheffield family (who are not represented on the board of TBN) or A.N. Other investor pursuing Falcon and Origin buys out the company at the same time. No doubt Santos (his original partner) have fingers crossed that this happens too. In the meantime broking analysts down under have advised Mr Reilly that he needs to spend more time now sorting out the various layers of royalties still overhanging the company's land interests if investors are to give him any more money.

Elsewhere Russia has effectively blocked an Iran deal and in the next 2 years or so European countries intend to wean themselves off Russian gas if the Russian Authorities don't pull the plug earlier. The probability that the Beetaloo Basin will be commercially developed is therefore increasing by the day and IMHO raises the prospect that some time in the 3Q this year we'll have the prospect of monetising whole or part of FOG's assets.

I had not read previously ORG's 1 March 2022 press release. It's poorly worded and draws attention to the fact that ORG's investor relations department have little or no idea of basic accounting. IMHO Mr Dprussky & Mr Newtofo in the circumstances have been rather polite about this episode. The Origin Board owe POQ and the Falcon board a humble apology and must find an opportune moment to put right any confusion they created amongst ASX investors .
Personally I'm actually rather sorry in this case that one of our directors has had to step down. Going back to the last days of the Bruner era Falcon shareholders would not have not been able to get rid of Bruner and his family if our Russian friend and colleagues had not picked up the telephone to US investors in New York and on the west Coast to agree to work together to oust the family at the company's AGM. What's more in the difficult period that followed when others rolled up their sleeves to turn the disastrous position around Lamasa Holdings' representatives have always been constructive and helpful & given the officers of the Company their full support. Going forward of course I would expect our management will still continue to give them the respect that they are entitled to as an important institutional investor..

Like everyone on this board I'm horrified by the Putin war in Ukraine. Our world has changed. The KGB clique will ultimately have to be replaced if we are to recover to where we were before. Mr Sheffield's comments to the FT this afternoon that US congressmen are being totally unrealistic when they are calling for all countries to stop buying Russian oil is undoubtedly correct. New supply cannot be conjured up overnight and he echoed Goldman Sachs' opinions when he ri stated that demand will only meaningfully reduce if oil were trading nearer USD 200. I'm also concerned that doing a deal with the mullahs in Tehran will not be too helpful either. Our world surely does not need yet another unstable regime to threaten stability.

Mr Sheffield's narrative on all the hurdles that companies like Pioneer would have to go through in the next 2 years or so to contribute to the US regaining production levels previously attained during the Trump period were particularly relevant to readers on this board. Companies like Pioneer have to take on Wall Street investors who continue to favour more distributions over investment. Previous drilling support teams that have have been laid off will have to be rehired. And the level of new investment would be significant if wells were to be reopened or new wells drilled and larger storage and greater pipeline facilities created..... There's also the challenge of the time that would lapse before new US capacity could replace capacity loss created by a whole or part shut-out of Russian gas.

Falcon have clearly a window of opportunity over the next 12 months if ORG can successfully frack one of their horizontal wells. USD100 + is very good for Fa

Many thanks Mr Babajanas for posting this link to the POQ interview. In the call POQ further clarifies how he sees the company’s prospects in 1H 2022 and what are its objectives over the rest of the year.

Very sensible comment Mr Tsoprano1

The risks today Uncle Buck are considerably less than they there 6/7 months ago and of course the company under POQ has come a long way since the bad old days of Bruner and his family. Rogue royalty agreements have been negotiated down, and the earlier disasters of Hess walking out on Fal and the NT government imposing a moratorium are now behind us.

What's not changed yet is the market's perception as to whether the Beetaloo is going to be commercially developed . On the other hand there has been a number of events in the last 12 months that justifies the re-rating of Falcon shares and allowing them to come off their lows. In particular, inter alia:

A) Rising energy prices in Asia which has reduced significantly the hurdles companies like Falcon and Origin must overcome if the Market is to value the shares on the basis that the Beetaloo is going to be commercially developed.
B) Investors in N.America and Australia recognise the big strides that companies like Schlumberger have been recently making in helping bring down drilling costs. The company is reporting latest quarterly figures this week and analysts are already lining up to publish new overweight recommendations on the basis that Schlumberger amongst its peers has transformed itself into an increasingly successful technology business.
C) Both main parties in the NT and at Federal level are positive
on the Beetaloo development.
D) Successful flotation and secondary placement last year by Tamboran on the ASX that also brought in, albeit so far on only a small basis, the Sheffield family (Pioneer Resources) who previously had historic links to the Basin through Santos.
E) Positive drilling news from Origin/Falcon in September/October last year on the Velkeri S2-1 vertical well and the important update on the Amungee NW-!H horizontal well, and the OK/quite good results from the two Santos/Tamboran horizontal well results a couple of weeks ago.
F) Real evidence that the Amungee is prevalent right across the whole of Origin?falcon's property in the Beetaloo Basin
F) Falcon insiders (directors and executives) last month buying Falcon shares in the secondary market
G) POQ's successful negotiation of a timely revised agreement with Origin of our farm out agreement last year.

Whatever successes or failures Schlumberger have with Origin et al in the next 12 months I find it very hard to believe that anyone will not want to take on Falcon's position for hardly GBP100 per acre.On other hand reasonable promise of commercial development whether it derives from Origin?falcon, EEG or Tamboran drilling will transform the outlook for Falcon shares.

In the meantime I repeat what I opined earlier that what's different in 2022 and not in place in recent years is that Falcon and Cenkos (have a story to take to larger investors who have a better grasp of the risks and rewards in this type of situation and real visibility on how Falcon's assets will be monetised by the end of this ye

Wise words Mr Poods. I also share with you Mr Newtofo's sentiments.

Since POQ's presentation I've picked up the phone to two of the brokers who follow EEG. As you would expect they had warm words to say about Mr Underwood (I would of course not have expected any different) but their confidence about the whole Beetaloo and its future commercial development was based more on conversations they have had with Santos and Origin around the attractions of the geology and similar research undertaken by UBS and others in the US with those more familiar with similar challenges.

There are though concerns around the technology and delivery. One would not expect anything different. For a company like Falcon this will effect the exit price it might ultimately receive end 2022/1H 2023.

At this stage the general view down under is if Origin/Falcon and their contractor Schlumberger are able to deliver reasonable/OK flows from one of the planned horizontal wells in the next 6/7 months or so, suitors will be knocking on POQ's door well before the end of this year and GBP 0.50 per share ought to be minimum compensation on offer to shareholders from a more experienced team to take the project forward. Conversely if flows from one of the horizontal wells is nearly as good as the extrapolated figures from the 2016 well it's not pie in the sky that Falcon will be offered double the figure above and possibly more if longer term gas prices in Asia remain high and at significant premiums to prices in the US. Don't forget the USD 1,000 per acre referred to in the conference call and the presentation is based on periods of time when energy prices were a lot less than today.

Interestingly what a successful frack will also mean is that the Falcon share price will very quickly this year respond positively and EEG and Tamboran shares will follow them higher . That's why all the CEOs are talking to each other.

I'also picked up in my conversations that there's speculation that the Sheffield family, who at present have only a small interest in the Basin through their 7.5% interest in Tamboran, might also become a much bigger player in the Basin's future development if the Tamboran maverick well delivers the goods during the summer this year. And it's speculation around this that might give POQ an option to offer Falcon shareholders the chance to roll their interests into another vehicle that will speed up what happens next from other sources once the 30 day flow figures are published later in the year.

In the meantime I continue to foresee further success for our management team and Cenkos to attract larger investors to take a stake, in particular those who understand more the risks and rewards and where the company now finds itself at the beginning of 2022.

The OK/solid numbers this week from Santos/TBN took me back 14-15 years to my notes of dinners I had at the time in London and in Ripley (not far from Exxon's offices in Leatherhead), with Ben Law and one other. How Falcon had become from very early on a cash cow almost solely for Bruner and his family and a gentleman in Switzerland was a distressing early topic of conversation,but there was genuine excitement later that the the cleaner company and the one to follow would be Petrohunter who had in some areas albeit on a smaller scale, similar geology to what was prevalent right across the core Beetaloo Basin that Falcon had acquired earlier. Some of you might recall why things did not play out as planned for Petrohunter. Unfortunately its downfall was partly caused by Bruner pushing through a 5% royalty payable on any gas and oil commercially extracted from the property just before he was forced to step down from Falcon. That royalty seriously of course undermined its value and Bruner was no longer in a position to inspire confidence and trust in the Markets. Today the Market knows that TBN has acquired this acreage but it's only a minnow that is just starting on a road to get itself funding and it starts from a position where it's not getting on too well with its partner (Santos), nor are its relations with the contractor on a very good footing. It's strategy is going to be much dependent on fracking success on their EP136 maverick well and it explains why at least IMHO the higher market cap for TBN compared to Falcon could never be justified.
Falcon itself has been in the Basin over 15 years. Origin has been either closely monitoring (when Hess were in the chair) or in partnership with Falcon for more than 10 years. Development of the Beetaloo is only going to be done on terms that suits the owner of the 4.6 million acres. Other parties who hope they might instead take the lead are probably not thinking logically but I'm all for putting a little pressure on Falcon and Origin in the next 12-18 months if it means they keep their eye on the ball.
I don't think TBN have any monopoly on a SubService Dynamics product. At least one member of Origin/Falcon's two boards knows them very well, and others linked to Origin/Falcon are very familiar with the SSD product(s) and how they could contribute to the development of the Basin in future (Velkerri B & C and the Kyalla).
Introducing to the board Joe Nally has clearly had a positive impact. Some people's perceptions previously was confused by two members of the board being linked to Gasprom. It was also the case that the original champion of this investment had somehow got himself into difficulties in Italy. By appointing Joe Nally and strengthening links with Cenkos, has helped attract a number of new investors whose time horizons stretch beyond a week or two as they understand how big the prize might be as when FOG's assets are monetized. Some of them I'm sure will accumulate more.....

Mr Riddle does rather seem to have slightly overplayed his hand in the last couple of weeks or so. The results are OK. They're what might some describe as quite solid but expectations were possibly/probably a bit better. The shares closed on Monday night at AUD 0.37 cents. They are trading mid afternoon today (down under) at 32.5/33 cents bid and 35 cents ask. it's never been easy to trade in any size in this counter. Trading reflects this and is quite light - a bit over one million shares - equivalent to circa GBP 200,000 and a market cap of circa GBP 135-140 million. The shares remain relatively more expensive than Falcon's despite all the evidence suggesting that Origin/Falcon 4.6 million acres is where one wants to be in the Beetaloo..

Santos/Tamboran drilled two horizontal wells. Origin/Falcon will clearly note very little variance between the two depths.

I take it Mr Riddle's 'secret weapon' which he pictorially reveals and offers an outline explanation on page 4 of his press release, is not intended necessarily to excite the public markets but will be more focused in future on a different audience. TBN's statements however contrast with Frank Underwood's opinion yesterday in the EEG press release that the Schlumberger teams were fully conversant with latest technology. I'm happy therefore that Falcon/Origin are underpinned by the independent work undertaken on their behalf in the Amungee NW1H in August/September last year. I fully endorse therefore Mr Newtofo's opinion, and Origin's share out-performance so far today on the ASX with 5.2 million shares traded surely reflects this.

Contrasting with what is happening elsewhere I suspect we might see quite a bit of corporate finance activity in the next 12 months or so in this segment of the E&P market. Not many places have this political and energy market backdrop.

Falcon/Origin's attention will now be increasingly focused this year on their two 2,000 metre horizontals. Origin like Santos at least are in a position to command the Schlumberger A team, and that's possibly another reason I struggle a little to understand the Mr Riddle and the Mr Underwood approaches where they favour more a UDI. Many of us learnt that lesson at least during the former times of Mr Bruner when Exxon came on the scene in Hungary. I hope in due course Origin/Falcon will give us more detail on timing of the phase III programme.

Thank you Mr Schlemiel for the link to the Origin quarterly report. EEG also presented on the ASX this morning a cash flow report as the end of December 2021 (which showed a cash balance of AUD 25.76 million), and an activities report that goes into some detail about their progress in particular during the last 6 months on the Carpentaria 2H well in EP167 in the Beetaloo sub-basin. Managing Director Frank Underwood plans to frack their (1005 owned) 1345 metre horizontal well on the site after the wet season ends in the first half of this year. My reading of their report and their hiring of Netherland, Sewell and Associates (NSAI) to update their earlier report, points to a planned fund raising in the next 6 months and/or a farm out deal if he can find a partner. The 18 page report is worth a read.

In terms of Origin's latest update most standout paragraph is on page 3 where Mr Calabria confirms that Connoco Phillips have exercised their pre-emption rights in relation to Origin's sale of 10 per cent of its shareholding in Origin's upstream associate company Australia Pacific LNG. However Origin remains upstream operator and will retain a 27.5% interest....The report also confirms on page 9 that FYTD exploration and appraisal capex was AUD 22 million, AUD 9 million during the 3 months ending 30 September and AUD 13 million for the quarter ending 31 December 2021. The previous FYTD figure was AUD 20 million (i.e. AUD 2 million less) when a lot of the work was done on the Kyalla. Meanwhile the Santos share price continues to reflect Brent crude trading at USD 91,29.

Thanks Mr Newtofo. It's very helpful for the board that you have reminded everyone of the costly work undertaken in the Kyalla in 2020/21 and earlier investments prior to the NT lock down. AUD 100 million is surely around the maximum figure left in the j.v. budget which leaves Falcon only having to pick up (applying Falcon's numbers) the bill for 22.5% of (25% of AUD 100 million). That's just over AUD 5.6 million or USD 4.million, which confirms the company's statement that it can be easily funded from current cash balances.I also concur that it's just possible later this year/early next (subject to positive news shortly on the EP161) that the two partners, Origin and Falcon, in putting together their data room identify a shortfall which they can readily correct but requires additional monies. And if that were to occur no doubt any small share dilution would be part of the decision making process.

I agree too that we should not want to get ahead of events. However, at this stage, the Market knows that if news is reasonably good early next month on EP161, any bidder for Falcon will almost certainly be offered an agreement for at least part of Origin's stake at the same time because such is the size of any commitment required to develop the Falcon/Origin's 4.6 million acres in the Beetaloo Basin it's too large for Origin.

Thanks Mr Newtofo for drawing attention to the revised company presentation on the Falcon website. The team are now clearly warming to the task. The second, third and fourth bullet points on Slide 23 in particular caught my eye.

No doubt the 30 day reading at EP161 at the end of this month will continue to be eagerly awaited.

I agree too with Mr Origin 789's comments that TBN need to seek a partner to develop EP136 et al ,and more equity to retain their stake in the EP 161 Santos joint venture. On the other hand Falcon's market cap already factors in its funding arrangements with Origin....

Further to my previous post on the market caps of the different players in Beetaloo the other day I need to post a correction. My original source ft.com showed incorrectly TBN's number of shares in issue and its market cap. It had not taken into account TBN's c!00 milion share placement in November last year. TBN's market cap as at the close this weekend (AUD 0.37 per share)was AUD 276.5M (GBP 146.3M). This makes them 35% more expensive than Falcon's market cap (GBP 108.5M), based on their London close on AIM on Friday. Falcon shares therefore remain relatively cheap, reflecting their past management and the fact that TBN's shares are more tightly held.

Thank you Mr Olea for posting the Hannam & Partners 30 September equity research note on TBN. IMHO it should be read front to back. (Thank you also Mr Newtofo for reposting it). In particular what stood out for me was:

A) Their comment on page 34 on TBN's overriding royalty interests that are payable to the Bayliss family, Petrohunter (the former Bruner company) et al. Falcon/Origin in recent years have cancelled most of these. TBN will need to do the same in due course but at a time when the prospect of future commercial development is more likely.

B) Their comment on page 19 under the Economic Incentives heading that the NT government has a regulated structure in place for the pastoralists and traditional land owners to receive compensation.
C) Their comments on page 25 that the mid Velkerri B shale reservoir properties based on geologic attributes are analogous to the Marcellus. They further add that the Marcellus shale is the most prolific shale in the United States
D) Their explanation why on pages 19, 20 and 21 why there's the realistic prospect that the Beetaloo and Greater McArthur Basins becoming a world class shale gas play., as so many fundamentals are already proven.

Can I ask you Mr Olea, as when Santos/TBN issue their 30 day update in EP161, that if you have the time can you post the summary Hannam & Partners research summary update to this board.

The fact that Falcon intends to monetize its Beetaloo assets in the next 12-18 months, and there's increasing proof that that the Velkerri B shale is ubiquitous across the whole region ....and the relative attractions of the Falcon portfolio compared to TBN's assets leans me to the view that the market will continue to favour Falcon over TBN. Notwithstanding that both shares will respond positively if 30 day flow results due shortly don't disappoint.

Thanks Mr Hardrock for your update. In my own analysis I'm assuming that if results are positive at the end of the month TBN will want to go ahead with their well but will take extra caution with their paperwork.

Like Mr Newtofo I'm less excited with the minnow EEG . Even so with a market cap of AUD 214M (GBP 112M) this morning with the share price trading at AUD 0.34 cents their value is very similar to TBN's. Sadly for Mr Underwood investors down under will prefer to follow the Sheffield family.

The F.I.N. term resonates within my family too.

End of year Santos/TBN press release was positive. Successful fracks have been completed. Gas has risen to the surface.Thanks to Hydro we know gas continues to flow. Results are eagerly awaited down under and on this side of the world at the end of this month. Investors hope the flows will be large enough for analysts and the Australian government to start to discount that the Beetaloo will be commercially developed in the next few years. The Sheffield family with pre-knowledge from Santos (and all their past experience in the USA with Pioneer) have raised investors' hopes by coming on board with Tamboran.
Santos market cap is >ASX 24B (GBP12.7B) this morning down under. Beetaloo is not material. Rising energy prices are. The conglomerate Origin has greater direct interest than Santos, but its market cap is ASX 10.4B (GBP 5.5B) this morning with the share price trading at ASX 5.90.
The TBN market cap is ASX 207 million (GBP 109M) this morning with the share price trading at ASX 0.39 cents TMN shares are tightly held. The company is funding 25% of the cost of the two EP161 wells at EP161. It intends to fund 100% of another well in the same vicinity if the Santos well is successful. The share float is relatively small. It's very unlikely indeed that those who have heard rumours as to the success or otherwise at EP 161 would trade in Tamboran shares. As and when news is released no doubt the shares will respond.
Falcon shares are quoted on AIM in London and on the TSX. They also trade OTC in the USA. Market cap tonight is c.GBP 123 M. Their 22.5% stake in 4.6 million acres in the Beetaloo Basin values is equivalent to c.GBP120 per acre at these levels. Two horizontal wells will be drilled and fracked by Origin/Falcon this year hopefully to prove up the earlier Amungee results. Falcon is covered for the full costs of these two wells in 2022 by its farm-out agreement with Origin. Equally important Falcon intends to monetize its 22.5% Beetaloo stake at the end of 2022 or 1H 2023.The 50% rise in the Falcon share price in the new year is simply bringing it more in line with TBN's. Unlike TBN Falcon has been an active investor in the Beetaloo for more than 10 years. It had first pick of the land in the Beetaloo Basin. Its property interests (c. 1 M acres) far larger than TBN's. It benefited considerably when Hess walked away after originally being in a a farm-out agreement with Falcon. The value of Falcon's investment over the years has benefited from the Brunei family (and lawyers since) having to give up most of their royalty interest, and a more sensible agreement being negotiated with its landowners. Positive support from all political parties In the Northern Territories and more recently from the Federal government has also helped. The turnaround in energy prices and the supply outlook further underpins prospects of commercial development.

IMHO investors will continue to favor Falcon over TBN

Good turnover in London this week. Relatively little in the US OTC market. a bit more on the TSX.

Hydro's satellite pictures, for which we're all grateful , show that gas continues to flow to the surface at the Santos/ Tamboran Tanumbirini EP161 site. Santos own 30 day readings at the end of this month are now increasingly eagerly awaited Down Under on the ASX and this has been similarly mirrored this week on the TSX and AIM on our side of the world. Origin's shares this week, no surprise, after the return of many to their desks after their Summer break, has started to anticipate possible good news since the relative strength of their shares is clearly not just a reflection of strong energy prices.

The Santos news, when it comes, will tell us where Origin and FOG shares are going in 2022 and 1H 2023. Any repeat of Origin/Falcon's flows in the Amungee well in 2016 and August/September 2021 will transform analysts Beetaloo Basin perceptions and convince most to adjust their spread sheets not just to reflect increased pay grades across the Beetaloo and Greater McArthur properties but also the need to apply lower discount rates to their numbers as the probability of commercial development would have substantially increased. And the two together of course will give us our higher NPV's and a big bounce in the shares of all the companies involved.

Sometimes on this board investors have been critical of Origin's thorough approach and unwillingness to carry on in any way in a cavalier fashion. Last year (unlike EEG) they did not get mixed up in jumping the gun to obtain money on offer from the Federal Government without full compliance to the rules. They also do not have a similar problem as Santos this week of leaving themselves open to a property speculator acquiring a piece of Origin/Falcon land and holding parties to ransom. I rather shudder to think how exposed we might have been if Bruner and his cronies were still running Falcon today.

Nevertheless the Santos legal case is still an irritant but how great an irritant we'll have to wait to see as it will be dependent on how large the farmer's land is and how much it overlaps the Santos/Tamboran acreage.

IMHO Origin?FOG investors' focus in the next two weeks will focus more on the fact that we have the same geology as prevalent at EP161 everywhere across our 4.6 million acres in the Beetaloo Basin. In some areas the depth of the mid-Velkeri B shale formation is not so great as EP161. In others its very similar. In all areas the thickness of the 'mid Velkeri' B shale formation is circa 50 metres or more and very similar to the Santos/Tamboran properties.

Overall I remain quite hopeful. Many of you should feel the same.

Mr Newtofo, I think around the middle of next week will be a better guide when people down under return to their work, but even then I'm not sure that Tamboran shares with their low float will give you the best guide.

In the meantime near all the workforce on site are sheltering in your favourite pub and local hostelry in Daly Waters as the local district has been heavily battered by high winds and heavy rains.