Member Info for BorntoBouggie

Sadly I agree with you Mr Chargas.....but I still retain a realistic hope in due course of USD 1.00

I agree with you Mr Wetwater that in most disputes everyone normally prefers compromise. Similarly you also raise the good point that if Falcon should advance further there is merit in the argument that our partners have to be acceptable to the Australian Federal Government and the Northern Territories. Furthermore the names put forward must have not only drilling capability but a track record that shows they have the skills to treat with all the stakeholders in the Beetaloo Basin and the Authorities in Darwin and Canberra..

I'm hoping our team are at least taking local advice talking say to a party like Macquarie Group who have a big presence in London too, and who inevitably have more regular contact with the international players than any business located so far away in Europe.

My other wish is that our team not only gets the right balance of risk and reward in the new set-up but at least starts from the right base when seeking their key objective which includes effectively getting the company further funded in a programme beyond the original Phase 3 with little or no dilution. The latter of course had not been on the table before and now only presents itself through the exclusivity status we've been given through the team's original negotiation with Origin.

I think it's more sensible for all to focus on Mr Wetwater's (latest post and in the meantime I recommend it normally pays to look to Mr Newtofo for advice on the company's logistics in the Beetaloo.

As for Mr W's latest listing 4 different scenarios:

1) Agreed
2) I don't see this alternative as very likely. TBN in reality has nothing to bring to the party and their involvement is very likely to cause several political problems at the Federal and Northern Territories level, ...and the local land owners. won't be too happy either. What's more why would we at this stage want to get involved with the Ritter gang who will likely find themselves involved in legal challenges.....If we are to hold out our hand to part of the Tamboran consortium it's far more likely we would offer B.S. and family a minority interest but that will only happen if the gentleman can satisfactorily explain his earlier actions.
3) Mr Mr W's Alt. 3 is very similar to his Alt. 2. A more likely scenario would be the Sheffield family sit down with Falcon (and A.,N other party/parties) and agree terms whereby BS et al significantly increase their stake, but the j.v. has better safeguards built in for the minority shareholders
4) Falcon enters into a short term agreement with the new consortium with additional safeguards than are currently on the table that allows us to work with the 'Origin' rig and has improved internal checks introduced on how the work will be carried out and how the operator reports directly to the individual companies. However the consortium would also have to agree to an open sale process after Phase 3. There's also a 4(b) option if Falcon can raise enough money to partner on satisfactory terms beyond the Phase 3 programme.

What's the big unknown is how detailed is Falcon's option to match the 'Tamboran consortium@ bid. And what leeway for example do they have to offer a cash alternative to the Origin Energy royalty. Notwithstanding these unknowns I'm absolutely sure neither Mr Calabria nor Ritter and his gang would want Falcon to test any of this in the courts.

Ritter and his gang and the unfortunate BS and his group now know they have got themselves into a mess. What's worse Ritter and his gang have further dug their graves by misleading many investors by not telling them clearly up front that the money they have raised is for an asset they are not yet in a position to buy. What's more some of the press must now be anxious that they too might find themselves legally exposed because they failed to check out what TBN was claiming.

Mr Ritter's behavior since TBN came to Market is terrible Inter alia he's not been open with the Market on all the royalties payable on his original acreage. He's picked unnecessary fights with Santos and the local land owners. He's even held in contempt by a Senate committee of the Federal government. My money is therefore on Options 1,2 or 3 and the worse scenario is we make a 5-6X multiple investing at these

I can obviously Mr Dprussky understand why you might want to put a bit of gloss on Mr Ritter and his company Tamboran. Quite simply you have bought on a hunch and definitely not on any analysis of their financial numbers, some TBN shares and sold your FOG shares. Amazingly as luck would have it in the last week you’ve woken up with the amazing news that a larger company has gifted their oil and gas assets to TBN. That is marvellous news of course but before you spend the winnings you need be clear in your mind that this is not a done deal and there’s quite a few hurdles that the Ritter gang have to get over.

First and foremost Falcon Australia has an exclusive right to match the ‘Tamboran’ bid and the exclusivity means Mr Ritter doesn’t get a send chance to raise his offer.

Second the Ritter gang needs to receive the approval of the Federal Government and Mr Gummer”s ruling Labour Party in the Northern Territories.

And third there are increasing concerns as to why Mr Calabria sought to sell his oil and gas assets in Beetaloo at a discount to what it seems to many people are not the sort of people one would want to do business with.

Mr Ritter has no successful drilling record. The only well TBN has been involved in was their 25% partnership in a well with Santos which was subject to a nasty legal battle between the 2 parties (which TBN los).. And as for TBN’s Maverick well even you must now realise they didn’t understand the rules which is why they have had to put it on hold in the second half of this year…Maybe it’s best we should simply wish you good fortune in your new venture and leave it at that…

This is clearly not your subject Mr Oleo..,,

Anything around these levels Mr Poods has got to be a good one way bet and you won't be surprised therefore that I was happy to add 10% to my position the other day when the shares were temporarily weak.

I don't rule out either one of the US big players or as Mr VM suggests, a regional player who historically has been close to the Beetaloo wanting now to have a go on this through Falcon. I equally believe that one should not rule out Bryan Sheffield either, who must realise now he should not have placed too much emphasis during his DD (when preferring TBN) of any difficulty historically caused to POQ and the team inheriting a Russian minority shareholder.

The US government of course in 2018 had effectively frozen the Russian's interest in Falcon and it was never going to be a problem for the joint venture partners since the frozen stake had represented hardly a 3.5% interest. Moreover the records showed that prior to 2018 the Russian holder had in all instances behaved most honorably post the Bruner era.

It doesn't need this board to tell Bryan Sheffield he made a mistake getting into bed with the Riddle gang. No doubt his father, who previously had been a non exec on the Santos board already must be echoing Mr Newtofo's opinion on Mr Riddle, and making it crystal clear to his son he's not the sort of person he should want to tie up with in a foreign country. Some of Mr Riddle's actions in the past 2/3 years in Australia , often picking a fight with various parties including the Senate, quite frankly makes him an unacceptable risk.

Despite Mr Calabria's concerns around fossil fuels and the level of financial write off caused by the untimely exit from the Beetaloo, IMHO I think the company on reflection would now more readily accept an all cash bid from Falcon and its new partner(s), ....It would also cut the risk of creating for Origin Energy so unnecessarily almost pariah status....I echo too Mr Origin789's opinion that the Riddle gang must be Mr Gummer's Labour party's worst nightmare in the NT

Sometimes more is said across the table behind close doors rather than openly through a press release. It won't therefore surprise you that it's now my understanding that not everyone agreed with Mr Calabria when he pushed through his Board his deal with TNB et al over the Beetaloo assets.

It's one thing to pretend cynically that ESG thoughts was what was behind the Beetaloo exit deal rather than a cash flow business decision to sell the gas and retain Origin's high CO2 coal interests but it 's quite another to take the risk that this deal cannot be easily pushed through with the various Authorities at the Australian end.

The Board knew that Falcon would likely be very unhappy with them dealing behind their back and not wanting to replace Origin Energy with a business with a much weaker balance sheet and such a poor reputation. The Board knew too that there inevitably would be investor fall out if Mr Riddle et al failed to scale their legal hurdles.

Australian analysts close to the Company tell my colleagues that Mr Calabria's judgement was questioned over his decision to enter into deal discussions with the Riddle gang whose modus operandi would have required them to ask Australian investors to put their money down whilst not declaring up front to them that A.N.Other party (Falcon Australia - Origin's partner for 9 years) could legally block.the deal. What's more the Market is increasingly hearing that members of the Board highlighted the reputation risk to Origin Energy itself and all its stakeholders of being seen to want to deal with a bunch of people who in the past have blotted their copybook when falling out with the large Australian Group Santos and totally unnecessarily getting themselves into dispute with local landowners in the Basin.. In their mind this is not the Origin way but this also puts the Company in a very bad light when TBN et al will have to seek in due course the approval for the deal from the Australian Federal government and Mr Gummeer's Northern Territories Labourv government..

The Australian Senate requested three times Mr Riddle to appear before them and Mr Riddle ignored them on each occasion.. In the end the Senate have now had to order him to attend. This is not good news for Tamboran and not good news either for any other party who is linked to the Riddle gang.

IMHO I would not want to put any money on the Riddle gang having success with this and all the signs are the Market now thinks the same. If Falcon can find for itself within the time frame a suitable partner pressure will inevitably mount on Mr Calabria for his errors of judgement

Interesting sell-off in TBN shares on the ASX over night before a very late small rally. This is not the performance one would expect from the Market believing that Mr Riddle and his business has pulled off his Beetaloo coup.

Out in the real world Mr Uncle Buck various parties are now seriously beginning to look into who or what has induced Mr Calabria to make his recent decision(s). If Phase III as as a result is held up for a few weeks as a result of Falcon being in a position to examine its options surely it has to be a plus point even for someone like you with your background.

We live in ‘choppy’ times. The vix index in the US is a warning us all..:,..and we don’t even know who is going to replace Mr Putin …and might that person be worse….

What we’re looking for is the right partner that can contribute in a number of roles;.. and a deal that offers shareholders the right balance of risk and reward in the light of the fortuitous position we find ourselves in exclusivity to consider 0articipating in this reverse takeover.

If Mr Riddle is uncomfortable with something he has a tendency to ignore it and pretend it doesn’t exist. Calabrian obviously knew and the jury will ultimately need to know whether he was kept in the dark or whether when it came to the test he was not up to International cross border finance.

FOG’s exclusivity really helps. Getting to HoTs ought then be quite easy with the fight party but the buy side financial, commercial and legal DD will take all the time which is why the ‘partner’ that Falcon works with has to be experienced in our sector with familiarity of the Beetaloo a big bonus …

It’s a good thing that Falcon has a bit of working capital to complete this deal

Yes I believe that Mr Stebil is almost certainly right since the all the parties would have realised when the deal was drawn up the deal might be treated under the AIM reverse takeover rules.

On potential bidders I agree with Mr Newtofo’s list but I would add BS and/or family funds with similar backgrounds and/or private equity funds active in this sector.

The Beetaloo location is a big plus in transaction.

Let’s see what Bryan Sheffield does next. I like to think he was badly misled by Messrs Calabria and Riddle and/or their advisers. He definitely knows now the current Origin negotiated deal is not likely to go through.

His advisers I expect will now be telling him if he is to pursue the Beetaloo asset in a meaningful way he needs to mend fences pdq with the Falcon board but present to them a new offer that they might consider and be competitive. He will also be made aware that Falcon could well be in a position to deliver a better deal with Mr Calabria if for example there is no clarity around the immediate value of the royalties.

One cannot over emphasise the value to Falcon that it now finds itself with its preemptive clause.

And what would happen if TBN was based in the UK? Clearly the Authorities would have stepped in right now and put his share issue on hold and we would have a sub judicial issue around any topic concerning Mr Riddle’s suitability to be a Director of a public company and Mr Calabria would be getting a much harder time explaining his strategy and being put on the spot as to why at this point of time he had dump his gas asset…

Whoever takes this deal forward, dealing inter alia with the reverse takeover rules and possible lack of clarity over ‘matching the Sheffield/TBN offer ought to be in a good position to push this deal through.

Rather funny peculiar all the negative vibes come from those who no longer hold any FOG shares.,,

I think the Market and the Authorities very soon are going to take a long look at the cowboy Mr Riddle and his various claims and pronouncements about himself and his near shell company Tamboran.

Why is there little mention of all the royalties on the TBN land?

Why did they fall out with Santos?

Why did they not come clean that their Maverick well could not be fracked until 2023?

Why don’t they tell investors up front that Origin Energy cannot at this stage sell their Beetaloo acreage to TBN and TBN can’t buy it…?

Mr Riddle and TNB is not a company the board of FOG wants to get into bed with.Conversely the fOG board must be very wary of Mr Calabria. No one believes his nonsense about our Russian shareholder whose shareholding was frozen by the US in 2018 and it makes no sense either to dump his Gas and retain instead all his coal interests.

Me Greenwood I rather think the Authorities would take a dim view of an issuer if it buried something that put into doubt whatever is written in the preceding 37 pages of a presentation that seeks to raise money for a specific transaction . They will pick up too that this inconvenient piece of information is not mentioned in theTBN’s management interviews.

Mr Calabria is in a position to clarify what is happening. He must know this now.

You do seem to be rather struggling with all this Mr Schlemiel.The last thing that Mr Riddle and Mr Calabria would have wished would have been to let Falcon know what they were up to.

May I humbly suggest that you should more accurately read into this bogus interview that third parties are now contacting the Financial Review and The Australian in Australia and the ASX and bringing to their attention the misleading statements by TBN and requesting Origin and TBN issue statements asap at the very least indicating that their deal is on hold for a month and may not go through. What’s more investors are going to ask if the ASX should put on hold as well the TBN share issue. I have no doubt either that third parties will draw the ASX et al ‘s attention inter alia to the press release(s) on the Falcon oil and Gas website and the house broker CENKOS ‘ analyst’s latest comment on this deal and what are clearly now Falcon Managment’s intentions.

Absolutely right Mr Beetaloo. TBN would have to invest in something else….but on the other hand they might be forced to return all the money raised and deal with the consequences of misleading the Market.

It’s quite simple Wetwater. If Falcon decides, and the odds are it will, exercise its very valuable pre-emotion right Riddle and his Tamboran board are going tot be up the creek in ….I do hope too that Mr Calabria has taken all necessary steps with the ASX to inform the Market that Origin Energy is not for the moment in a position to complete their deal with Tamboran.

All this of course is Mr Calabria and Me Riddle’s worst nightmare. Mr Calabria is going to be further tested if trying to keep Origin’s proposed royalty if it is to be payable by a company whose holding company has a Russian shareholder (albeit frozen since 2018)..,,,and very sadly too Bryan Sheffield’s grand plan is not looking too good and he must be wondering if people around him have let him down very seriously.

Good stuff Mr Wetwater. Right on the button…In my mind he’s not too much different from Mark Bruner…,Quite frankly I don’t rule out BD wanting now to do a pivot on this and arguing (and there’s merit in this) that the approach to Origin Energy made more sense in the first instance if it went through TBN rather than Falcon Australia.

Turning to Falcon’s options, we can do a partnership deal with a trade partner or finance partner. We can look to finance the next 3 years or look to finance it through stages,

Falcon needs circa AU$140M (US$93-95M) plus the cash equivalent of royalties to complete the original Phase III programme. And if the parties can agree that TOG Group ORRI deal might be a good basis, they will only have to reach agreement on the vendor’s additional 3.5% royalty which is clearly worth less proportionally.

I think the Falcon board, the Australian Federal Government, the Northern Territories and BS and family with reason are very confident indeed that there’s plenty of gas in the Beetaloo. It’s only a question of the cost it will require to extract it.

IMHO the odds on a deal are quite good it’s really a debate around price and the pros and cons around financing the next 3 years in stages which one might envisage would give us the optimum return.