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And what would happen if TBN was based in the UK? Clearly the Authorities would have stepped in right now and put his share issue on hold and we would have a sub judicial issue around any topic concerning Mr Riddle’s suitability to be a Director of a public company and Mr Calabria would be getting a much harder time explaining his strategy and being put on the spot as to why at this point of time he had dump his gas asset…
Whoever takes this deal forward, dealing inter alia with the reverse takeover rules and possible lack of clarity over ‘matching the Sheffield/TBN offer ought to be in a good position to push this deal through.
Rather funny peculiar all the negative vibes come from those who no longer hold any FOG shares.,,
I think the Market and the Authorities very soon are going to take a long look at the cowboy Mr Riddle and his various claims and pronouncements about himself and his near shell company Tamboran.
Why is there little mention of all the royalties on the TBN land?
Why did they fall out with Santos?
Why did they not come clean that their Maverick well could not be fracked until 2023?
Why don’t they tell investors up front that Origin Energy cannot at this stage sell their Beetaloo acreage to TBN and TBN can’t buy it…?
Mr Riddle and TNB is not a company the board of FOG wants to get into bed with.Conversely the fOG board must be very wary of Mr Calabria. No one believes his nonsense about our Russian shareholder whose shareholding was frozen by the US in 2018 and it makes no sense either to dump his Gas and retain instead all his coal interests.
Me Greenwood I rather think the Authorities would take a dim view of an issuer if it buried something that put into doubt whatever is written in the preceding 37 pages of a presentation that seeks to raise money for a specific transaction . They will pick up too that this inconvenient piece of information is not mentioned in theTBN’s management interviews.
Mr Calabria is in a position to clarify what is happening. He must know this now.
You do seem to be rather struggling with all this Mr Schlemiel.The last thing that Mr Riddle and Mr Calabria would have wished would have been to let Falcon know what they were up to.
May I humbly suggest that you should more accurately read into this bogus interview that third parties are now contacting the Financial Review and The Australian in Australia and the ASX and bringing to their attention the misleading statements by TBN and requesting Origin and TBN issue statements asap at the very least indicating that their deal is on hold for a month and may not go through. What’s more investors are going to ask if the ASX should put on hold as well the TBN share issue. I have no doubt either that third parties will draw the ASX et al ‘s attention inter alia to the press release(s) on the Falcon oil and Gas website and the house broker CENKOS ‘ analyst’s latest comment on this deal and what are clearly now Falcon Managment’s intentions.
Absolutely right Mr Beetaloo. TBN would have to invest in something else….but on the other hand they might be forced to return all the money raised and deal with the consequences of misleading the Market.
It’s quite simple Wetwater. If Falcon decides, and the odds are it will, exercise its very valuable pre-emotion right Riddle and his Tamboran board are going tot be up the creek in ….I do hope too that Mr Calabria has taken all necessary steps with the ASX to inform the Market that Origin Energy is not for the moment in a position to complete their deal with Tamboran.
All this of course is Mr Calabria and Me Riddle’s worst nightmare. Mr Calabria is going to be further tested if trying to keep Origin’s proposed royalty if it is to be payable by a company whose holding company has a Russian shareholder (albeit frozen since 2018)..,,,and very sadly too Bryan Sheffield’s grand plan is not looking too good and he must be wondering if people around him have let him down very seriously.
Good stuff Mr Wetwater. Right on the button…In my mind he’s not too much different from Mark Bruner…,Quite frankly I don’t rule out BD wanting now to do a pivot on this and arguing (and there’s merit in this) that the approach to Origin Energy made more sense in the first instance if it went through TBN rather than Falcon Australia.
Turning to Falcon’s options, we can do a partnership deal with a trade partner or finance partner. We can look to finance the next 3 years or look to finance it through stages,
Falcon needs circa AU$140M (US$93-95M) plus the cash equivalent of royalties to complete the original Phase III programme. And if the parties can agree that TOG Group ORRI deal might be a good basis, they will only have to reach agreement on the vendor’s additional 3.5% royalty which is clearly worth less proportionally.
I think the Falcon board, the Australian Federal Government, the Northern Territories and BS and family with reason are very confident indeed that there’s plenty of gas in the Beetaloo. It’s only a question of the cost it will require to extract it.
IMHO the odds on a deal are quite good it’s really a debate around price and the pros and cons around financing the next 3 years in stages which one might envisage would give us the optimum return.
Absolutely right Mr Newtofo. If there’s to be a dispute it will likely be between Origin Energy and Falcon Australia debating what is the value of the Origin 5.5% royalty in October 2022 (I.e. before the completion and fracking of the two planned horizontal wells)…What’s more if it can’t be settled before the parties go to court the TBN/Origin deal will be toast.
I bet BS is not too pleased he’s found himself mixed up in this mess and one should not therefore rule out Mr Riddle and friends being dumped and kicked into touch. TBN and/or Origin clearly did not think this deal through and one or both of have intentionally or otherwise misled various parties on this proposed deal.
Can I suggest FOG shareholders this evening should continue to monitor TBN’s shares on the ASX since any continued weakness will give further warning that the planned deal is not going to happen.
I’m still struggling to understand why some of you just don’t get it. I understand why you want to take at face value Mr Riddle’s comments. As of yesterday Origin Energy is not in a position to sell in the next 30 days its 77.5% interest in the Beetaloo Basin and TBN is in no position to raise the money on the ASX to complete the deal…and this situation will only change if Falcon Australia’gives its approval.
In the meantime iI’s nice that there’s been more follow through this afternoon (and with higher turnover) in the FOG share price which continues to recover.Some of you might even suspect that the Market does not share some of the naysayers’ views.
Yes Mr Nervesofsteel. It confirmed to me that I should have every confidence that I was right to add another 10% to my holding yesterday morning/afternoon.
I also discerned from the note that there might be different legal opinions as to what might be the value of Origin Energy’s 5.5% royalty in this deal in the middle of next month.
Either various parties were very negligent when putting together this deal ( e.g. very surprising indeed in this instance that the people involved took certain things for granted) or some of the principals were very economic with the truth when seeking third party sets of approvals.
I do rather think some of you on this board should sign up, if you can, to read the latest (confidential) CenkoS’ analyst report. At least it will then make some peoples’ comments on this board somewhat better informed.
Nice to see this morning FOG shares in London are beginning to recover their equilibrium. In the meantime I don’t see Mr Riddle and TBN being able to complete their fund raising plans until FOG makes clear what are its intentions on its pre-emptive right …and if there’s a risk of a legal challenge that results further delay, this would scupper the Origin Energy/TBN deal.
In the meantime I think it’s worth reading some of the macro numbers that our company broker have set out in their report yesterday. If it’s correct to assume FOG’s pre-emptive right gives it effective exclusivity FOG itself has made itself by this week’s action a very valuable asset and/or a very attractive partner to develop circa 4.5 million acres in the Beetaloo Basin.
And one further point that perhaps should be raised, that no don’t is giving rise for concern to the TBN and Origin Energy boards. If there’s any ambiguity over FGOGcand Falcon Australia’s pre-emptive right, under what jurisdiction will it be settled in court…
A very good post this afternoon by Mr tdafalcon. I agree too with Mr Newtofo that BS , although a very welcome change from the confused Origin Energy board, is a party that POQ and our Chairman will recognise they must protect all shareholders’ interests by making full use of all the takeover rules on the London AIM and the TSX.
I’m very happy this evening that the shares have rebounded in North America and I personally had the confidence to add another 10% to my position this morning.
What’s intriguing me too this evening, and no doubt we’ll find out in due course, how detailed are FOG’s pre- emptive rights (e.g, how do they value in October 2022 the new 5.5% Origin royalty) and is this pre-emotive right in effect an exclusive right for FOG in this deal.
Personally I think that BS was surely right to work through TBN… Using Falcon would surely have been embarrassing for the Origin Energy board. But we have moved on now. Falcon can be seen in the light of their pre- emption right.
One last thought iMHO BD and his family are very successful business people. They’re not going to ruin their reputations now by getting involved in anything underhand.
Mr Oleo I’m not quite where you are coming from You have this fixation over South Africa that is so corrupt it’s no longer even able to supply energy to its people and its President has had to cut short his trip to the UK to attend her Majesty’s funeral.
FoG’s partner in the Beetaloo is set to change. We still hold our 22.5% interest. FOG’s outlook almost certainly has improved. I’ve happily bought more FOG shares on AIM this morning at well below 7 pence per share
Important not to overlook that UK investors investing in FOG shares through the UK AIM exchange get significant tax benefits which we would want to hang onto until we can fully monetise our asset….:
In the meantime it’s worth looking again at the two recent presentations made by Mr Close on behalf of TBN. He has no doubt whatsoever that the Basin holds multi TCFs of gas. What we’re all now trying to prove up are companies’ capabilities of reducing the cost of extracting the gas. Whether the new Tamboran consortium or A.N. Other party takes on this role in 2022 and 2023 the upside potential for FOG shares over the next 9 months or so ought to be at least a 5-6x multiple from here if the probability of commercial development can be proven…,,
Hi Mr Newtofo nothing yet received…can you check the number including country code
Congrats a very thoughtful post Mr Newtofo... I’m sure you are right to assume that no one had any advantage leaking to Falcon details of the proposed deal in advance.
I think Mr Riddle might not have built into his strategy this turn of events from his rival Falcon. If nothing else Mr Riddle might now feel he needs to have a word with BS on what inducement could be offered to Falcon to persuade POQ et al to support the deal.
Mr Newtofo’s other suggestion that Santos might be an interested party also makes much sense. In the meantime I’m pleased. Falcon shares had good support this afternoon in the US and Canada.
This is primarily a Bryan Sheffield (BS) deal and in this instance TBN is his preferred vehicle given the fact it would have been too embarrassing if FOG would have been put forward instead.
I’m not familiar with the terms of FOG’s preemptive rights on this deal but it’s clearly not practical for our company to consider competing with BS on this transaction . If we want to consider becoming involved it would have to be, given the likely timeframe, with the full support of BD and friends.
As for the Guardian article, careful reading indicates no no comment that our 2 horizontal wells will now be four and it makes clear that the parties have included terms that drilling need no longer be held up pending completion of this deal. What surprised me most was not the writers’ strange opinion that the Federal Government might plump for an energy rationing policy and continued reliance on coal, but just how much Mr Calabria and his board of directors had been spooked by the Russian investor’s circa 3.5% stake in the project. Could they really have been so ignorant of the actions of the US government in 2018 to place heavy restrictions on the investor’s shareholding in FOG.
Mr Longknife, the Tamboran consortium no doubt will have to commit to fund in full Origin’s requirement under Phase III of the original BV agreement with Falcon Australia.
Utter nonsense to suggest that FOG shares should have any reason to ‘tank’ on Tuesday morning. Mr Calabria and his board simply wanted to exit at any price..,.