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About 1% less Mr Sandydune. Important to note too that TBN on its own did the deal with Origin, BS did not support TBN when he found out, and FOG a few weeks later successfully completed a separate deal with TBN. All in all TBN now recognises that it had not been very clever trying to do a deal behind its partners' backs. Its needs to raise more cash quite soon was therefore inevitable but what has happened since, TBN has gone through its cash pile even quicker than many expected.

Have a look at the rules in London. Everyone I'm sure has complied with them. Given the numbers in this instance BS would not have been obliged to inform Falcon if he had bought or sold Falcon shares. I would still though encourage one of you next Thursday to ask how Falcon caught up with him....or did BS just mention it in a call. I'm hoping they discovered it when BS cast all his votes kindly supporting all the AGM resolutions

Personally I'm very pleased to read that when the shares wrongly fell back last September I was in there alongside BS scooping up shares. On the other hand I did not foresee that almost 9 months later I would be looking to see if Tamboran {TBN} could raise enough money in equipment sales to keep its air conditioning on.

Real news must be now imminent.

I have no doubt whatsoever we are going to see much higher turnover in Falcon’s stock on AIM in London and the exchanges in North America in the next 3 weeks or so before the NR. Transaction size is also set to increase.

As I anticipated over the weekend on this board, London was always going to play catch up with North America once we returned to our office desks this week.

The other side of the pond were much quicker last week to understand the significance of the NT government giving the green light to the Beetaloo in the very near future.

In the meantime it’s also clear why Tamboran shares continue to underperform given their numbers update in their latest quarterly operations.

It’s less than 4 weeks before all will be revealed formally by the partners in a NR. So much depends on it but at least Falcon has another chance if everything turns out not sufficiently quite right. The NT and Federal governments will also be watching closely. Good flow rates must be delivered if the governments are able to overcome all the unnecessary hysteria still emanating from some quarters. They will also want assurances (and suitable evidence) that in due course all the ‘minnows’ will be replaced.

I expect more buying on both sides of the pond in the next few weeks, partly because many larger investors appreciate not only the scale of cost savings in future but also the dramatic improvement to the numbers the partners will get from the equipment that has been shipped over from the US.

Not everything is clear yet on the ground and a formal NR is not now expected for another 4 weeks. However Falcon shares have been strong recently in Canada and the USA in the last 72 hours and closed at CAD 0.195 on the TSX and around USD 0.145 in the US. Given current CAD/GBP (c.1.70) and USD/GBP (c. 1.145) exchange rates trading on the other side of the pond this points to further upside for FOG shares next week since they closed this afternoon at only GBP 0.093 bid and GBP 0.094 offer in London.

In the meantime I’m not too surprised that TBN shares have not responded so positively to their update given the shrinking of their cash position since their last update.

At the end of last year other posters called you out for all your negative posts and writing very little constructive. It’s in your interest to make more effort to try and gain respect from others on this board and recognise that all key shareholders in Falcon and those who have to deal with POQ do not share your personal opinions.

Always delighted to read wise words from MrPoods - and his latest missives from Mexico - and supportive comments, always welcome from Mr Newtofo.

What’s definitely the case and theirs no change than before is that anll eyes will be on the fracking results on the first of the Part III horizontal wells when it comes. Initial results will be near the end of April and 30 day figures one month later and the partners no doubt when the time comes discussing amongst themselves how best not to confuse the market like other oil minnows with too many different figures….The fact that BS and others will want to sit down with leading politicians (if results are as favourable as some clearly hope) and sensibly contribute to helping them hammer out a policy that will allow a very low CO2 play help to deliver the go to fossil fuel prior to Green hydrogen et al is key. Delivering the green agenda not just in Australia but across the whole of East and south east Asia, like it or not is all important.

Nonetheless what comes next if incorporating a 3 kilometre horizontal well will add certainty that commercial development will be backed in the markets and allow the Australian government to achieve all its global commitments. But there will be a price. The Federal government will want financial certainty too. Companies like Tamboran, EEG and Falcon will have to be replaced by entities with the resources to develop over decades the Beetaloo. Tamboran has very much overstretched itself with the acquisition it alone negotiated alone with Origin. Consequently Falcon unlike Tamboran with a much lower ORRI and less cash commitments to its partners will realise relatively more than its partner.

But we’re all going to have to be patient - not just another 3 weeks or so but another 4 weeks after that . There may not be the level of speculative run up one might have expected before Tamboran’s formal announcement whenever it comes in the second quarter. But let’s hope a large flare picked up by the satellite in the interim helps keep to a minimum the never ending drip of retail sellers on the TSX and AIM…

it.s great for you hiding behind a pseudonym but i'm very confident indeed you are going to have to eat your words by the end of the next quarter.

Hello Mr Greenlanteren or Mr Camelot or Mr Bigones,we know you write your stuff under different names and recommend each other.Why you do it despite not owning any shares is quite beyond so many of us....

The team intend to frack up to 24 intervals in the horizontal. Timing will though be more or less depending on the geology and then they will move on to the next stage.. i'm hoping and expecting to hear the results before the end of next month.But if they look good the team will want to start to get the message out beforehand....

The H&P equipment at great cost is now on its way from the US. The plan is it will drill a 3 kilometre horizontal in the second well increasing the drilling distance from from 2.875,000 metes to 6,000 metres and I presume fracks at 72 intervals. This new equipment is transformational The market will quickly want to discount this ....

i'm really looking forward to the next 4 days at Cheltenham. i think the Brits will do a little bit better than last year but the Irish will still dominate again.

I understand where Darrnitagain and DrPrussey are coming from they made a big mistake and sold out of FOG and they know it.But some of the other comments on this board are in cloud cookoo land. TBN if the Phase III part i frack goes well they have the problem of somehow raising money and they will only achieve it if BS underwrites the offer..That's very unlikely . the recent posters on this board have overlooked that if BS wants a greater share of the Basin he now has his own vehicle for a direct investment and appreciates all the brownie points he wilt gain from the Fed government in Canberra if he takes out TBN.
Fortunately the FOG position after the deal lat October and unlike TBN ha set itself up for an auction. I don't know which corporate or which national oil and gas company will come after us but i'm prety confident we'll have at least 3 in the last round of bidding next year.

We might get a short announcement as to how many fracks were completed next week but the important stuff will come in April

FOG management pre - POQ originally turned down the EEG land. it has the merit of spreading the risk. But nothing would encourage me to buy into Mr Ritter's company

What with Mr Greenwood. ?? I gather reading a balance sheet is not one of your inherited skills….

take it reading a balance sheet is not an inherited skill

Well said Hardrock

Interesting Mr Ord2000. Personally I would focus more on rates earned on shipments to South Korea

You are not going to handle on volumes and margins until we see the next former P3 well in the 2Q.

What’s more the most dramatic change will occur when analysts and investors change their discount factors.

And as for monetisation we will also need the support of Canberra.

Good morning Mr Newtofo. Before the figure announcements next quarter I’m sure your price range looks about right. But we’ll have to wait for the numbers.

However where we differ is timing. Every bidder wants to have more and more info before they make their move but I’ll be astonished if at least two players don’t break ranks and pre empt all the others. End 2023 1H 2024.

In the meantime and no real surprise now the Market knows how few options TBN has left itself with new funding. The premium for TBN shares over FOG shares has now completely gone.

I therefore again want to take my hat off to POQ and the team who continues to look after our interests. Now we only need a small break and get as some expect, fingers firmly crossed, close to a match with latest Marcellus figures next quarter.

Actual numbers are important. Third parties will be also watching what will come next. 10 year Fed money near 4% and rising means there will be more emphasis these days on going into production and higher probability of commercial development therefore is more important to share values than changing a few hectares to P1,P2 or P3.

Reiterating again what I’ve written earlier I think we can count on (if Ritter is right) a 3X bump in the share price and that will be simply achieved following analysts’ changes in their discount rates. But what will follow next from a 5 number or more is the Market will quickly anticipate that speculation will start that TBN and FOG will be replaced with new partners to meet the government’s needs in Canberra.

This won’t be a repeat of a stock that goes up and falls back.2023 is going to be very different from earlier periods.. The type of investor in FOG going forward is going to be very different than the ones in recent years.

Many thanks Mr Laminnow. The Hannam analyst report has a number of good dates on as and when the info will flow through from the fracks

Also helpful he/she sets out on what basis she/ he sets his/her target share price if results are as good as hoped (>5) He says he’s very comfortable with a 3x target from these levels for the share price given commerciality of the Basin will surely follow. What I like too is what he presumes to be the next 2 wells during the rest of the year which will raise expectations of the bigger boys taking over……A good thing thing therefore POQ has retained all his options for FOG..!! .

Mr Northern Magic the key comment in the Cenkos report was his remark that anything over 3 would lead to the consortium pressing on with commercialisation. And if we do achieve 5 like we did nearly 6 years ago, and all the improvements in the sciences since make this likely , the whole market will upgrade their discount factors that they apply in their spread sheets to calculate their new target price per share. Even an average move from 10 to 30% will help treble the shares and the market over time could well move itself higher

We’re not going to have to wait long now.. And my best advice is readers should follow closely Mr Newtofo and Mr Hardrock Cafe.,.,,,

Back to the headlines, the focus down under and from Dublin is very clearly coming with an underlying message that we now have the A team looking after our interests .

Our cautious CEO knows we only need a three reading but Tamboran has no shame to call it pre frack above 5. I’m getting increasingly bullish we may even get a little more.
I also like the new science that we can test up to 24 sites which will allow them to keep the average up.

In fact I’m already thinking ahead how exciting the market will become when considering what will follow this well.

This leopard has not changed his spots. The Federal government’ is not going to be 100% confident dealing with BS and 2 minnows. TBN knows this will be an issue for them once they’re cornered and have to raise some money. The real prize is Fog. And what’s so good about this are all the successful steps taken by POQ and the Board to maximise our options.

This morning’s movement on AIM was quite nice . But this week/last week are clearly only the start before we ultimately monetise our asset

MrSclemeil you receive a copy of the Cenkos broker analyst report on FOG on the basis that you fully comply with their conditions.

I don’t understand why you do not. Please do not repeat your illegal actions in future. Otherwise you’ll be likely banned

If you don’t understand this message please ring Cenkos and they’ll advise you appropriately and very firmly.

Forget some of the gossip.. I believe Hardrock Fracer has his ear in the right drinking hole.
As for TBN the market is increasingly aware that any fund raising is dependent on BS. Fortunately POQ no surprise has kept his Company’s many options open.,
Please note too that most of the TBN premium over FOG shares has been lost in the market this year.It took time but FoG shares in due course will soon trade at a premium to TBN shares