Member Info for BorntoBouggie

So what you are trying to infer Mr Oleo is that POQ does not make presentations at conferences. That's pretty damning but that's not true Mr Oleo, so why do you write it.

Quite frankly Mr Oleo I take a pretty dim view of your plethora of negative posts and your silly obsession with southern Africa under your name and your other pseudonyms, almost ever since you joined this board in 2019. You may find it rather cute to write anonymised mistruths about the CEO, the board of directors, the company and indirectly Bryan Sheffield and other senior gentlemen who represent Daly Waters and Liberty on the Falcon board. On the other hand you win no plaudits because people have noticed you are more often than not totally disdainful of facts and figures in quarterly and annual statements, independent brokers' reports and detailed comments by qualified experts on the Beetaloo Basin, You even try to pretend you don't understand that Falcon Oil and Gas is not an Operator, and has a duty of care to husband its cash resources wisely.

Do you not think Mr Oleo, the time has now come for you to take the advice of others and move on. rather than risk getting yourself into a lot of trouble....

I always respect Hardrock's wise counsel. On his last post I fully endorse his comments in Paragraphs 2 and 3 and am minded also to suggest a Paragraph 4 that highlights that TBN and Daly Waters' investors, annoying for them, will have to pick up yet again the bill, which is not so small as the TBN gentleman sought to intimate om the 'Call'. The SS2 and SS3 wells are very, very close together and TBN would have been told that it's therefore rather dangerous to work on both at the same time...and {at least some} down time is inevitable. IMHO it's not too clever therefore that the gentleman leading on the 'Call' thought it wise to communicate to the Market a 19+ 30 day flow rate for the SS3 well even if he hopes his team's error does not warrant a problem of the scale that Hardrock cautiously advised in his worst case scenario in paragraph 1.

On the positive side I'm very pleased indeed today with Schlemiel's news from the NT . Some activist lawfare these days has to be curtailed not just in the NT, when it takes on the form of quasi fascist behaviour.

Last June's article in Hart Energy {that Fitz65 reposted on Hot Copper} was almost as detailed and as enticing a message as the most recent Chuck Yates interview on LinkedIn and YouTube. Thank you Newtofo for highlighting them here again. Thankyou too for drawing our attention to the Smallfish comments on the same day. All of them reiterate just how attractive and how big a prize the Beetaloo is. Sadly what this also does is increase annoyance and frustration, particularly where it matters in the US, about all the operations' errors {that are not down to H&P and Liberty} that have plagued this story since Origin stepped down in September 2022.

Tamboran {TBN} senior management burnt all their bridges down under very quickly on or after September 2022 {as shareholders inter alia repeatedly suffered dilution} and had to move to the US in June last year. TBN again is now struggling for many of the same reasons and the company has further lost crucial credibility when trying to explain away what has gone on since June 2023 on the SS2, SS2B and the SS3.....Thank you therefore Wetwater, for sharing with us what you did.

Fracking of SS3 has been put on hold and results won't now start coming through until June. The fact that SS3 fracking had started before the halt might increase the degree of difficulty of undertaking reinforcement of whole or part of the casing.

SS2B figures' release dates are unchanged. TBN told analysts that SS2B and SS3 figures will be at least as good relatively speaking as the SS1. This is an operations problem. It's not a geology issue.

Planned farm out by TBN was confirmed by TBN. Company is not certain now that 4 wells will be drilled and fracked in the next stage as per their original 2025 programme. Enough detail was provided to inform the analysts that more money will have to be raised to complete the next 3 or 4 wells.

Confirmation made on the call these 2 exploration wells will be more expensive than future wells.

Talks are now going on with Santos to encourage them to recommence work on their acreage.

No further detail offered on the checkerboard agreement.

TBN CEO sought to emphasise that connecting Beetaloo gas through pipelines had huge economic and environmental advantages compared with importing LNG from the US. or from the Middle East.

Reporters Down Under are reporting that the local business community in Darwin 'is abuzz with rumours of a high-profile US visitor to the Northern Territory in the next few months.' Speculation about this has increased in recent weeks driven by NT News journalists and business leaders reluctant to confirm or deny less they jeopardise the plans..

Those words in the video 805slo don't IMHO rule out a farm down which is significant given that most of the other options are not readily available. TBN can't access bank finance like EEG; it's too early to forward sell the gas as a pipeline has not yet been built; and attempting another share issue is very challenging given mixed success last time when raising only USD 75 million when they were looking for a lot more..

Bringing in a new party like Inpex at this stage will likely prove very positive indeed for everyone currently involved {including Falcon}, subject to fingers crossed good 'frack news' in the Spring..

Thank you Hardrock for drawing our attention to, and from time to time sharing with us your Northern Territories industry newsletter. It looks like a valuable source of information. Whoever is undertaking the task in the MacArthur Basin I'm sure in the summer when results are published, it will shine an important light for EEG itself, Daly Waters, Falcon et al on the potential value of the shallower acreage in the Beetaloo and MacArthur Basins. Personally, I'm guessing that if a provider switch was made it would have followed a Liberty decision to take a minority stake in EEG.

Turning to the US, thank you Wetwater for sharing with us confirmation that the checkerboard agreement has been agreed by the parties. This was an important next step and improves TBN's prospects of completing a successful farm down that will help them fund their next four wells in the Shenandoah. Bringing in a {big} new player will help further underline too Beetaloo's enhanced status {assuming of course the SS2B and SS3 come up to the partners' expectations - see also this week's TBN and Falcon NRs}.

In the meantime the new Chuck video this week, {presented at the US oil and gas annual conference in Houston, Texas} includes more valuable insight from Bryan Sheffield not only about Falcon's and his own involvement in the project but the contribution too he foresees that companies like Schlumberger, Halliburton and Liberty in future will give to help halve operating costs in the Basins.

Can I suggest Hardrock you phone and ask them direct....and whilst you are on the phone ask them too what flow rate they and the company would judge as commercial, and what rate have they applied in their numbers. They seem to have quite a lot of respect for EEG's CEO.

This broker does not cover Falcon.

It's definitely the RaaS team's understanding that Liberty are working too with Liberty. Bryan Sheffield took steps early on that lessons learned during testing in the Beetaloo Basin should be properly shared.

I'm quite confidents we'll hear SS2 B and SS4 numbers in early April after fracking and soaking {see Wetwater's comments too}.

The Australian broker RaaS issued Monday morning an update on Empire Energy Group {EEG}. EEG are hoping to commence commercial production during the 3Q 2025 from the Beetaloo Basin, subject to gas flow testing {by Liberty} through their Carpentaria-5H 3.31 kilometre horizontal well, finalisation of remaining approvals with an on=country meeting with the Northern Land Council {set for April}, and the mobilisation of their gas plant {probably around mid-year}.

Their 3.31 kilometre horizontal well is five and a half inch cased and cemented with fracking set to commence at the beginning of the 2Q, and is capable of being fracked in 60 stages or more. RaaS express confidence that minimum commercial flow rates are expected to be significantly exceeded. {See link to the full Raas report on the EEG website}.

Positive results from EEG will be positive too for Falcon, TBN and Daly Waters given the fact that EEG's acreage is adjacent to acreage owned by Falcon et al.

Like Falcon and EEG, Bryan Sheffield has a minority stake in EEG.

I think Mr Oleo it best I let you stew in your own beers. I'm sorry Falcon's board of Directors did not decide to ask you to join them, when you dropped them a line before the last AGM. But I don't now see any reason why we on this board should be some form of substitute for you.

Maybe the best advice for you is to go away and play some Fantasy Football - at least you might start to learn what happens when you don't have the money to do what you want and/or you have to make choices on how to achieve the highest returns.

This weekend Tamboran {TBN} and Falcon shares are cheap. But going forward, in terms of which company is capable of delivering the biggest accretive gain for their shareholders, surely most people on this board will not disagree with the large Canadian firm who is beginning to sing our praises and is full of praise of the deal Falcon signed up to with TBN in October 2022 at the time of the Origin deal.

TBN is hell bent on a strategy that somehow its CEO can create a new Exxon down under. Yes the company is making a\ lot of noise and bringing to everyone's attention prospects for the Beetaloo Basin, but what in reality it's achieving, inter alia is finding itself having to fund 50% of the cost of the next 4 wells in the small postage stamp area {and all the G&A around it} that will have to be funded by a farm down {of significant size} of its acreage in the Basin...... Compare this with the strategy of the Falcon board, to make full use of the options it negotiated earlier, and let its partners prove up for them value of their Vedlkeri B in the deeper areas of the Basin, and still retain a portion of the current postage stamp drilling area.

What's more if Liberty come through successfully too on EEG's horizontal well in the summer Falcon {and Daly Waters} will highlight this too and talk up the Velkeri B's value outside the deeper areas of the Beetaloo.

Riddle did all investors and companies involved in the Beetalo a lot of good equally in his Chuck Yates interview earlier this month. Many of the right people won't watch it now but will watch it at the US oil & gas conference early next month & again when Liberty come through with the TBN numbers in April/May, & those for EEG' at the end of the 2Q. On the other hand Riddle is Riddle, always more interested in his own ego, who ought to feel some remiss after this interview for his exaggerations & omissions, & making the same mis-statements that he made pre confirmation of the SS1 numbers.

I agree with Wetwater and Newtofo on this. Those guys who participate on the Australian Hot Copper board are increasingly irrelevant as Riddle has been forced to walk away from the Market down under, because he did everything to demonstrate that he cared so little for the interests of most investors who supported TBN when it floated {& after} on the ASX market. In fact the extent of dilution that Riddle has put investors through was further highlighted this month when a US broker analyst issued a report with a target price {of USD 32 - which is a lot less than the equivalent price in AUD when the company originally floated down under & less too than pre Riddle's Origin deal} for TBN shares, assuming positive {I would have preferred he had said 'IF'} results are forthcoming in April/May from Liberty

I assume Newtofo however had a dual reason for raising the matter. We still have a few people on this board who have been slow to understand the Falcon board's strategy, not dissimilar to Alex Underwood's EEG, which is sensibly to carefully husband their companies' cash. Hopefully it will become more clear to all as and when TBN need to raise more funds to meet its 50% commitment on the next 4 wells {and that's dependant on Liberty} the company will have suffered further dilution probably in the form of a farm down with the aim of not just proving how good are the figures in the postage stamp area where they are drilling but also how attractive in terms of value for all the partners is the whole deep acreage where the Velkeri B is located....and surely all the partners {Daly Waters in particular} gain too if Liberty deliver good numbers for EEG mid year as well.

What I'm hoping for, & most of you probably the same, that IF Liberty delivers, the Markets will not only recognise that they are wrongly valuing TBN's share of Velkeri B in the deep locations in the Beetaloo at hardly USD 800 per acre they are applying no value at all for everything else; & they also recognise that they are wrongly valuing Falcon shares at an unjustified discount to TBN at only c. USD 300 per acre on the same basis..... Personally I'm more in Oilcounrtry99's camp, with risk much reduced. TBN this weekend is wrongly valued {based on ordinary shares issued only} at less than USD 300 per acre, and Falcon {based on shares issued and unissued share options}.at c. USD 110 per acr

Thank you Hardrock for putting up the original link on LinkedIn. Thank you too Newtofo for giving us the same on Youtube..The TBN share price mentioned in the interview confirms that the film editing had been completed some time early last week and may lie behind the short term bounce in TBN shares before the weekend. However so far few people have seen it yet. more will view it through through Brian Sheffield's friend Chuck Yates' blog and will gain more headlines again at the US annual oil and gas conference in early February and as and when the drilling and fracking results will come through in April.

Despite Falcon and our CEO only getting a short refence right at the end {and Alex Underwood and Empire Energy Group none at all} I have no doubt now that Falcon, EEG and TBN will equally benefit as Falcon have clearly beefed up their team in North America in recent months. as not only are they subject to less royalties {as Newtofo regularly reminds us, it's set to suffer far less dilution in the next 2 years. In fact that's even more likely now as Riddle seems to confirm in this interview that funding issues dictate that TBN too will be seeking a sale next year. Also the attention will be on EEG during the second half this year when the company comes through with their own horizontal results and highlights again what they have achieved by better husbanding of their cash.

SS2B and SS4 all important retention rates will help determine what sort of offers we receive in future. What's more, what must be becoming more clear to all sensible people that there's been a significant reduction of risk in this Falcon play in the past 24-30 months {despite some of the hiccups}, and Bryan Sheffield, H&P and Liberty are continuing to play a critical part in proving up potential upside.

Meanwhile Riddle of course has as usual raised expectations - partly because he needs more money to drill the next 4 wells next year.{an amount likely at least similar to what was raised when the the company was introduced to the US market}. In the interview - and the Market will move more about this in future, IF fracking results can better the SS1 figures and H&P and Liberty can demonstrate significant cost savings are possible when we switch from exploration to production mode....

I don't rate you Mr Longknife. For someone who so nonsensically messed up how to do a relatively simple sum and wrongly told this discussion board that as a result of the Falcon board of directors' actions, the company had effectively thrown away almost 10% of their acreage {down from 22.5% to 20.5%} in the Beetaloo Basin, I'm quite frankly surprised that you continue to show your face and pretend you are someone whose advice should be taken at all seriously. No one is keeping you here. If you and others do not understand or agree with management's strategy why not move on to sunnier climbs.

I take a lot more seriously Newtofo, Fracme's and Wetwater's comments this afternoon. Real experts like Bryan Sheffield, his father and senior management teams at Liberty and H&P have said in writing similar positive things and their money where their mouth is. Newtofo has also taken the time to spell out some of the reasons why serious investors rate more highly Falcon stock than Tamboran the pretend operator. Not only does Tamboran receive no fee for what it misleadingly claims it's doing, it has lost the confidence of institutional investors down under {EEG is much preferred} as Tamboran's Management seem almost hell bent on diluting significantly existing shareholders.

good morning wetwater, sadly, i rather think you are wasting your time with mr oleo who has been ******** and squealing on this site about one thing or another {including the karoo basin in corrupt, unsafe, too dangerous to do business in south africa} for the last 4-5 years. like mr longknife and others none of them read or even to comprehend quarterly and annual reports and accounts, cash flow statements and irr analysis, yet still try to pretend to others that they know what they are talking about. what's more to make their cases too often what they say is inconsistent, obvious mathematical errors are often made, and they clearly have so very little to add in terms of industry knowledge or corporate finance expertise.

in this latest case messrs mirob and beetaloo show that they and others far better understand {than mr longknife} roughly what the numbers were that the falcon board analysed before making their strategic decisions on participation. the company in effect rightly decided that it should reduce its participation from 22.5% to c.10% in the postage stamp area thereby reducing its investment in the relatively expensive exploration wells to be drilled and fracked in 2h 2025.... the company has effectively saved itself c.45 million capex with the quid pro quo for this it still owns 99% of its acreage that it owned before in the beetaloo. you can presume too that the board factored in that not only did they not have usd45 million in cash in their bank account to readily invest , they did not want either to raise the money by selling assets or seriously diluting existing shareholders for this opportunity, as higher returns could be made on this money elsewhere.

a lot is riding on liberty in the next 8 weeks or so.. i'm hopeful.

Dear, dear, dear Mr Longknife. almost every time you post you still do not fail to surprise many of us as to your level of ignorance. You are not the only one but to have no knowledge or interest whatsoever in balance sheets and P&L accounts, or the cash flows of a business is somewhat unusual.. However in this latest case, in a sector where farm in and farm out deals are so prevalent, you have truly excelled yourself by pleading on this board such ignorance as to how a partnership in this industry works where one party claims it is playing an Operator's role. Is a party a real Operator if it has never undertaken such a role before? Does a real Operator sit back and so weakly accept that its partners pay it nothing for its services? Why does this party too pick up some elements of the costs and other partners absolutely none of it at all.. Yes Mr Longknife, you have got it wrong again. TBN is not a real operator.

I am very sorry, Mr Longknife, you continue to struggle to understand what is happening here and what are the prospects for the 3 minnows, TBN, the pretend operator not only with little or no past experience and still hoping to learn on the job in future but also little grasp on how to run a public company; ..........Empire, with land outside the Beetaloo Basin, definitely well led and making out the best despite a poor hand: ........and Falcon - a different type of animal to TBN and EEG, whose relative attractions will become increasingly evident next year if the checkerboard agreement kicks off between TBN and BS and family and friends. and Liberty comes through with a successful SS2 and SS3 frac.

I wanted to offer separately my congrats to Mr Fracme as to his spot around the inconsistency of TBN's two latest news releases, last Wednesday and last Monday morning...!!

I rather think if some of you had heard Riddle on the conference call, not only would you have been concerned about all the areas he admits, he's learning on the job, but when it comes to numbers he was very muddled indeed yet still showed reluctance to ask his CFO to step in to aid him..

On the 5% issue Mr Fracme, the board of directors had to decide at the end of March this year how much Falcon would invest in the 2024 and 2025 drilling programmes. The early date of course was driven by Tamboran's need to have Falcon's committed number before its prospectus {seeking to raise USD 150 million} could be put to bed and before Tamboran itself had made another series of errors that caused it to have to delay the start of the SS2 and SS3 drilling 2024 drilling programme near 2 months until the end of August 2024. IMHO Mr Wetwater has got it right. The Falcon board rightly analysed the situation and concluded rather than invest 10% in the next six wells for a 17.5% stake it need invest 5% only in the expected very expensive SS2 and SS3 we, and the same again or not in the 2025 programme for a maximum 10% stake.

The board of directors' reasoning was that the six well 2024/25 programme would if successful prove up not only the circa 50--51,000 acreage {since reduced to c.46,000 acres} in the postage stamp area but also the area of similar geology, thickness and depth {over one million acres} in the rest of the c.4.5 million acres {that's divided into 6 blocs under the Daly Waters/TBN checkerboard agreement} of the Beetaloo - where Falcon still retains its 22.5% stake.

Fracking successfully a 1,7 kilometre horizontal well and achieving a 10+ flow test in the SS2 will be good news indeed if it occurs, but we're now more reliant than before that we can still prove that we can complete and successfully frac our first 3 kilometre well on the SS3 - and both fracs are going to be now completed during the wet season in the NT....

One other titbit of news. Why do none of you US posters not have a view, good or bad, that the CEO of one of our partners {Liberty } is very probably leaving us soon, as the Trump team are putting him forward for the Cabinet post of Energy Minister.

.....that the size of the postage stamp area has been reduced almost 10% because the partners called a halt on the second SS2 well after 1800 metres {i.e. less than the 2,500 metres that is the agreed benchmark in the partners' agreement. Why won't he report that as matters currently stand falcon owns 10% of the postage stamp area but is required to invest only 5% of the cost of the two wells this year and the rest of the pilot drilling programme in 2025.

In the meantime the Company's broker in London has acknowledged in a note the possible opening at a future date of drilling in the Karoo in South Africa, which will led by a government entity. Rules and modus operandi need be established first and the critical lack of water in the area has to be overcome.