The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
Can I also suggest readers of this board take a little time to google Falcon's website www.falconoilandgas.com that this year has been significantly improved.
Timing Northern Magic is 1Q 2024, if flow rates measure up to expectorations..
In the London markets confidence has been fuelled by results from the DFIT at the SS1 well and the fact that the Daly Waters team effectively took control at SS1 after the Riddle team was found wanting earlier this year.
The recent decision by analysts at Tennyson Securities to join Cavendish {nee Cenkos} to cover Falcon on AIM in London has also improved sentiment and their lengthy first report they issued at the end of October has been well received.
What we're all simply waiting for is 'proof in the pudding' next month. Before that occurs one might see satellite pictures of flaring at the SS! on this board.
10 fracks over 500 metres wont take too long to complete by this time next week and the team overseen by the Daly Waters team hopefully will be able to get going well before Christmas with their 30 day test work.
we're now into the Christmas party scene particularly in London and Toronto. After New Year interest if all goes according to plan will pick up in the U.S.
Bryan Sheffield's move to raise a USD 100 million + private equity fund to be targeted 'down under' and the decisions around the redomicile and transformation of TBN shows us the confidence of Daly Waters and partners.
More important Origin 789 the uncertainties created by the Beetaloo predominately in the hands of a couple of minnows will be substantially reduced. What's more BS and partners taking formal control not only opens access to all the capital markets but a complete overhaul on how management husband their resources.
Don't overlook either the Tamboran flotation is going to be welcomed by the Australian Federal Government and the Northern Territories.
The analysts and London AIM are looking for very good news in the !Q 2024. The Us also anticipates that the minnow Tamboran will be transformed by its p[process to come to the US market.
The market specialists are increasingly confident that Falcon will have a happy New Year
I hundred per cent agree Wetwater....I recognise too Hardrock's continued astute and accurate observations.
All the recent announcements in Australia and here in Europe tell us that from next month TBN will be transformed and become a well capitalised company in the US, led by a well respected management team led by Bryan Sheffield and partners.
If we receive positive results from the two wells drilled in 1H 2024 probability of future commercial development will of course increase and if that were to occur one can expect analysts will re-rate significantly TBN and falcon shares. In the meantime this week the two Falcon brokers in London have advised the market that their target prices are 36/37 pence per share. There is also a lot of confidence in Australia from independent observers who have visited the SS1 site that the BS Daly Waters team working closely with H and P [and Australian sub-contractors} have successfully brought all their US experience to the drilling and fracking exercise.
About 1% less Mr Sandydune. Important to note too that TBN on its own did the deal with Origin, BS did not support TBN when he found out, and FOG a few weeks later successfully completed a separate deal with TBN. All in all TBN now recognises that it had not been very clever trying to do a deal behind its partners' backs. Its needs to raise more cash quite soon was therefore inevitable but what has happened since, TBN has gone through its cash pile even quicker than many expected.
Have a look at the rules in London. Everyone I'm sure has complied with them. Given the numbers in this instance BS would not have been obliged to inform Falcon if he had bought or sold Falcon shares. I would still though encourage one of you next Thursday to ask how Falcon caught up with him....or did BS just mention it in a call. I'm hoping they discovered it when BS cast all his votes kindly supporting all the AGM resolutions
Personally I'm very pleased to read that when the shares wrongly fell back last September I was in there alongside BS scooping up shares. On the other hand I did not foresee that almost 9 months later I would be looking to see if Tamboran {TBN} could raise enough money in equipment sales to keep its air conditioning on.
Real news must be now imminent.
I have no doubt whatsoever we are going to see much higher turnover in Falcon’s stock on AIM in London and the exchanges in North America in the next 3 weeks or so before the NR. Transaction size is also set to increase.
As I anticipated over the weekend on this board, London was always going to play catch up with North America once we returned to our office desks this week.
The other side of the pond were much quicker last week to understand the significance of the NT government giving the green light to the Beetaloo in the very near future.
In the meantime it’s also clear why Tamboran shares continue to underperform given their numbers update in their latest quarterly operations.
It’s less than 4 weeks before all will be revealed formally by the partners in a NR. So much depends on it but at least Falcon has another chance if everything turns out not sufficiently quite right. The NT and Federal governments will also be watching closely. Good flow rates must be delivered if the governments are able to overcome all the unnecessary hysteria still emanating from some quarters. They will also want assurances (and suitable evidence) that in due course all the ‘minnows’ will be replaced.
I expect more buying on both sides of the pond in the next few weeks, partly because many larger investors appreciate not only the scale of cost savings in future but also the dramatic improvement to the numbers the partners will get from the equipment that has been shipped over from the US.
Not everything is clear yet on the ground and a formal NR is not now expected for another 4 weeks. However Falcon shares have been strong recently in Canada and the USA in the last 72 hours and closed at CAD 0.195 on the TSX and around USD 0.145 in the US. Given current CAD/GBP (c.1.70) and USD/GBP (c. 1.145) exchange rates trading on the other side of the pond this points to further upside for FOG shares next week since they closed this afternoon at only GBP 0.093 bid and GBP 0.094 offer in London.
In the meantime I’m not too surprised that TBN shares have not responded so positively to their update given the shrinking of their cash position since their last update.
At the end of last year other posters called you out for all your negative posts and writing very little constructive. It’s in your interest to make more effort to try and gain respect from others on this board and recognise that all key shareholders in Falcon and those who have to deal with POQ do not share your personal opinions.
Always delighted to read wise words from MrPoods - and his latest missives from Mexico - and supportive comments, always welcome from Mr Newtofo.
What’s definitely the case and theirs no change than before is that anll eyes will be on the fracking results on the first of the Part III horizontal wells when it comes. Initial results will be near the end of April and 30 day figures one month later and the partners no doubt when the time comes discussing amongst themselves how best not to confuse the market like other oil minnows with too many different figures….The fact that BS and others will want to sit down with leading politicians (if results are as favourable as some clearly hope) and sensibly contribute to helping them hammer out a policy that will allow a very low CO2 play help to deliver the go to fossil fuel prior to Green hydrogen et al is key. Delivering the green agenda not just in Australia but across the whole of East and south east Asia, like it or not is all important.
Nonetheless what comes next if incorporating a 3 kilometre horizontal well will add certainty that commercial development will be backed in the markets and allow the Australian government to achieve all its global commitments. But there will be a price. The Federal government will want financial certainty too. Companies like Tamboran, EEG and Falcon will have to be replaced by entities with the resources to develop over decades the Beetaloo. Tamboran has very much overstretched itself with the acquisition it alone negotiated alone with Origin. Consequently Falcon unlike Tamboran with a much lower ORRI and less cash commitments to its partners will realise relatively more than its partner.
But we’re all going to have to be patient - not just another 3 weeks or so but another 4 weeks after that . There may not be the level of speculative run up one might have expected before Tamboran’s formal announcement whenever it comes in the second quarter. But let’s hope a large flare picked up by the satellite in the interim helps keep to a minimum the never ending drip of retail sellers on the TSX and AIM…
it.s great for you hiding behind a pseudonym but i'm very confident indeed you are going to have to eat your words by the end of the next quarter.
Hello Mr Greenlanteren or Mr Camelot or Mr Bigones,we know you write your stuff under different names and recommend each other.Why you do it despite not owning any shares is quite beyond so many of us....
The team intend to frack up to 24 intervals in the horizontal. Timing will though be more or less depending on the geology and then they will move on to the next stage.. i'm hoping and expecting to hear the results before the end of next month.But if they look good the team will want to start to get the message out beforehand....
The H&P equipment at great cost is now on its way from the US. The plan is it will drill a 3 kilometre horizontal in the second well increasing the drilling distance from from 2.875,000 metes to 6,000 metres and I presume fracks at 72 intervals. This new equipment is transformational The market will quickly want to discount this ....
i'm really looking forward to the next 4 days at Cheltenham. i think the Brits will do a little bit better than last year but the Irish will still dominate again.
I understand where Darrnitagain and DrPrussey are coming from they made a big mistake and sold out of FOG and they know it.But some of the other comments on this board are in cloud cookoo land. TBN if the Phase III part i frack goes well they have the problem of somehow raising money and they will only achieve it if BS underwrites the offer..That's very unlikely . the recent posters on this board have overlooked that if BS wants a greater share of the Basin he now has his own vehicle for a direct investment and appreciates all the brownie points he wilt gain from the Fed government in Canberra if he takes out TBN.
Fortunately the FOG position after the deal lat October and unlike TBN ha set itself up for an auction. I don't know which corporate or which national oil and gas company will come after us but i'm prety confident we'll have at least 3 in the last round of bidding next year.
We might get a short announcement as to how many fracks were completed next week but the important stuff will come in April
FOG management pre - POQ originally turned down the EEG land. it has the merit of spreading the risk. But nothing would encourage me to buy into Mr Ritter's company
What with Mr Greenwood. ?? I gather reading a balance sheet is not one of your inherited skills….
take it reading a balance sheet is not an inherited skill
Well said Hardrock
Interesting Mr Ord2000. Personally I would focus more on rates earned on shipments to South Korea
You are not going to handle on volumes and margins until we see the next former P3 well in the 2Q.
What’s more the most dramatic change will occur when analysts and investors change their discount factors.
And as for monetisation we will also need the support of Canberra.