Member Info for BorntoBouggie

POQ has now issued a NR drawing everyone's attention to the three TBN NR's, issued on the AX.

The second TBN NR refers to an uplift in the Best Estimate of the C2 reserves. The third to the TBN presentation. What will resonate well is TBN management's comment that 'We are now a development company....., and Shenandoah is where we are going to develop'. The TBN presentation includes a chart on page 12 which is very useful. It's a very helpful timeline chart highlighting what's planned in 2024 and 2025 subject to agreements with Native Title Holders, landholders and key stakeholders. Another 4 horizontal wells will be {hopefully} drilled in 2025 in addition to the 2 planned in 2H 2024, as well as 300 km of 3D seismic, a 40 MM cf/d compression facility and the start of a 35km pipeline.

The London AIM will be guided by the brokers Cavendish/Cenkos and Tennyson Securities tomorrow. I expect the Falcon Q&A at 16.00 London time will highlight inter alia any intended changes in the Partnership Agreement.

Falcon shares will open strongly tomorrow in London. I have little doubt the Market will increasingly view Falcon in the next few months as a hot takeover play.

CORRECTION

My post 30 minutes ago wrongly stated that TBN intended to test the Amungee 2-H and 3-H wells. It should have read instead that the the partners intend to drill two new Shenandoah South wells in the 2Q 2024 and commence testing in the 2H 2024 {one of them for 360 days}.

Very good Beetaloo 30 day test results p[published by Tamboran 40 minutes ago on the ASX. SS1 Well delivered 6.4 MM cf/d per 100 metre lateral. Planned 3000 metre horizontal wells planned to be drilled in the 2H 2024 expected to deliver >19 MM cf/d. Amungee 2 and 3 wells also to be tested in 2 H 2024. SS1 well flow rate achieved exceeds current average rates in the Marcellus in the US. Tamboran has enough money for now. Tamboran's next round of funding will be in the the Summer this year

TBN's presentation kicks off in 11 minutes.

.

Once authorisations are in place the partners will give the green light to the Pilot Scheme..

very good call mr hardrock...…. and another attraction for them is the past connection to the sheffield family {scott sheffield, bryan's father was a non exec director}, and all the benefit they might accrue partnering with a team that have enjoyed so much successes at p****e inc and pioneer natural resources inc.

bryan sheffield's current private equity fund investors and/or a second fund might also be alternative farm out partners for falcon and tamboran.

in the meantime i'm waiting to hear whether the partners will still go ahead with the shenandoah north and the ah-3 wells, and their estimated ultimate gas recovery {including the ultimate recovery factor they're now applying} from the ss1 well in addition to its 30 day test flow rate

very good call mr hardock............ and another attraction for them is the past connection to the sheffield family and the benefit they might accrue partnering with a team that have enjoyed previous successes at p****e and pioneer in the us..

Absolutely right Mr Newtofo there will be a long list of suitors for Falcon Australia's 22.5% stake in Beetaloo if it were to turn out that the the flow rate at the SS1 well in the 30 day test period exceeded the equivalent of 5mm per day over 10000 metres.

However there are tax drawbacks normally if a company sells part of an asset rather than the whole.

POQ wrote to Falcon investors on Monday inviting them to 'a very important Q & A on the SS1 well results {at 16.00 UK time} and what this means for the Beetaloo in general and the p[lot development programme in particular.'

To interpret it as Greenlanteren describes it on this website is very difficult to understand. Quite frankly like many others on this board, I don't understand this person's motives.

The majority view is that we can probably be sure that the fracked well is expected by all those involved to flow at or in excess of a rate that POQ has previously described as a commercial rate and one that would lead to the partners authorising a pilot scheme later this year. That's good news of course but if our partner Tamboran {TBN} is going to successfully raise money in the US with the help of BS and family and friends, and with the support of the US companies Liberty and H & B, the flow rate must be close to the stellar rates that management told anyone who would listen in Australia and elsewhere, and the Beetaloo in the Northern Territories is the equivalent of the Marcellus in the US.

As a Falcon shareholder I sincerely hope that although none of their doing the Falcon board has not been let down by others on this. Hopefully it turns out there's no need to be concerned. On the other hand we'll only get the degree of bounce in the shares we all crave for, if POQ can also assure the Markets that Falcon has the funds to participate in the partners' programme in the next 12-15 months.

May I politely ask you Mr Schlemeil to be very careful indeed next week not to reproduce anything on this board that you have only had access to on the basis that it's confidential to you.

Can I also encourage all of you to read the Tamboran comments on the Hot Copper page down under. Some of you might particularly want to read Odds and Evens comment at 09.42, 87 Crash comment at 09.17, and the second paragraph in Davdent's comment at 10.35 which reads 'It would seem the reason for the webcast is to increase interest in Australia and the USA so that they can raise the capital to...prove the commercial value of the resource.....' and his conclusion in the final sentence of his third paragraph which reads 'It is very hard to see how this can be anything other than extremely good news!'

I repeat again the Riddle statement is quite extraordinary, If the announcement would have been made after the close on Friday 23 February I would expect the ASX would as a matter of course enquire into the nature of the announcement and consider suspending the shares before the opening on Monday 26 February and allow recommence of trading the following day.. One cannot therefore rule out now that the ASX will be on to the company asap before the Markets open down under this morning.

In the meantime everyone on this board has the opportunity to sign up to the Tamboran presentation and Q&A next Monday at 09.30 Sydney, Australia time. All those interested will find the link on the Tamboran investor relations page.

One can reasonably assume that Riddle et al have been somewhat concerned by the weakness in the TBN share price . This morning it seems they've decided they have an urgent need to announce in advance that the 30 day test results will be announced next Monday on the 26 February 2024 on the ASX,

I believe Riddle et al receive reports every day from the SS1 well and by now they would have already received at least 3 week data. With that in mind it feels like they are almost desperate to tell us they have gone all in,,,,,, Extraordinary!

I appreciate very much your change in sentiment towards Falcon in recent months Mr Camelot, reflecting your recognition that we may finally have a favourable wind behind us. I think the latter is right and we're going to find out how true in the next 10 days or so.

POQ states that the partners will give the go ahead to a pilot development in the Beetaloo if we can achieve a flow rate in our 30 day test equivalent to 3 mm per 1,000 metres. On this basis two firms of brokers in London have crunched their numbers, put a probability into their equations and have come up with 36/37 pence target prices for Falcon on the London AIM. I think at this stage this is is the best guide that we have.

The short term prospects of Falcon's share price will depend on what the partners tell us after completion of the 30 day test. POQ has given everyone guidance if the well achieves a 'commercial' rate. It's clearly going to be a different ball game if for an unknown reason the flow rate does not meet POQ's hoped for rate. On the other hand the 37 pence target price will also be altered if the flow rate can be realistically compared to a figure in the Marcellus in recent times no doubt because the company would become overnight one of the hottest takeover targets in its sector. {There's also many other scenarios in between}.

What happened in 2016 is not a guide. Bryan Sheffield, H&P, and Liberty coming on board at Tamboran and replacing Origin is a big game changer. Tamboran's plan to transform itself and gain a quote in the US is also all important. The fact we have a 22.5% stake in the multi layered play in 4.6 million acres of the Beetaloo Basin with an immediate prospect of commercial development is going to buoy hopes in the next 10 days or so.

Inevitable speculation will probably mean Falcon shares will rise a little next week but don't expect any larger players to cast an eye an eye at the two minnows {Falcon and TBN] until the partners tell us the 30 day results and what are their plans in the next 12-18 months.

Not sure that's right Mr Smallfish. When the decision was made the partners agreed to select two locations - the A3H well very close to the A2H well - and the SS1 well. The former was clearly selected after the Riddle team had messed up so badly at the A2H well site. However the SS1 well in a deeper location was drilled and fracked first.....and since then Riddle et al have made statements to the press talking up strongly the SS1 flow rate and even telling the leading newspaper down under, The Australian, before the ASX, that the 30 day test had commenced on the 25 January 2024.

Riddle and his team, some will recall, didn't hold back either in the Spring last year over the A2H well. Hopefully we won't now have a repeat of what happened then and we'll discover {before the end of this month} confirmation that Bryan Sheffield's Daly Waters team, including a former Pioneer engineer they have brought in from the US, have made a much better fist of things as Riddle et al are openly stating.

In this context, as I understand it, Mr Hardrock is now wisely asking if it's shown that the A2H fracking issue was so easy to fix, can one question with hindsight the partners' decision to drill the A3H well last year if at the end of this month they can demonstrate a commercial flow rate at the SS1 well site and can announce their intention to press ahead with their pilot scheme at the location.

I always enjoy your posts Mr Hardrock. What you say about the A2H is I'm sure almost certainly right and I understand too your point that the partners' decision last Summer to drill the SS1 in a deeper area of the Beetaloo Basin {and nearer one of the pipelines} obviously ought to raise a query around their thinking at the time to return too to the shallower A2H location and drill the A3H well. However what's done is done now......and I could still envisage the partners wanting to debate again amongst themselves in the next week or so whether there's still some merit {if there's time available} to utilize their assets to confirm commercial flow rates at the A3H location.

I'll skip your other point you raise at the moment save to say like you I don't see BS welcoming Exxon as a partner at this early stage. The test results in two weeks time are all important to what happens next. In the meantime can I recommend to all a research article published almost two years ago by Seeking Alpha entitled 'The Emerging Beetaloo Shale: Why it maybe Australia's Marcellus Play; Falcon in focus....'

Hi Mr Camelot. We're now into the two week countdown period to the company's important announcement on its 30 day test on 500 metres of its horizontal Shenandoah South well in the Beetaloo Basin. Have they taken sufficient remedial steps to ensure the Tamboran management don't mess up the process like they did last Spring? I think so since Info coming out of Australia confirms that Bryan Sheffield after the Riddle debacle parachuted in a top man from Pioneer and persuaded Riddle to agree to step back completely. Will we get a sufficient flow to get the green light for a pilot scheme development? I sincerely believe so given all the buying on AIM in London since the start of the New Year encouraged by our two brokers Cavendish/Cenkos and Tennyson. Might the flow rate be nearer the type of number Mr Riddle and his management team is telling the Australian press? Maybe. In fact like you I'll be very pleased indeed if it does but I'm not banking on it. However if the figures show that the Beetaloo is capable of delivering numbers that are similar to those in the Marcellus then Falcon's 22.5% stake in four and a half million acres in the Beetaloo is going to be a very hot property.

I'm sorry Mr Camelot if you missed POQ's subsequent clarification of the debacle last year by the other company and all the discussion since on this very informative board. Hopefully POQ will give us another Q and A next month......

I agree Mr Gonoles. The NAPE announcement will in due course have an impact but in the meantime the Falcon share price {and the increased buying through AIM in London} is beginning to recognise the improvements in the company's fundaments and the imminent catalysts that could power the shares a lot higher during the next 12 months - including inter alia the decision of the partners to commercially develop the Beetaloo Basin, the makeover of Tamboran in the US {and its significant raising of new capital}, the partners' plans to drill two more horizontal wells this year and more next, and kick off their pilot development.

What's likely to also come into increasing focus, once the market digests the upcoming SS1 well results near the end of this month, will be inevitable speculation around how much a sovereign wealth fund or one of the oil majors might be willing to pay end 2024 first half 2025 to buy into this Beetaloo play.

Many thanks Mr Newtofo for putting together some of the numbers that highlight Bryan Sheffield's increasing commitment to the Beetaloo Basin . His current share of the Beetaloo Basin is the sum of 38.75% through his holding in Daly Waters, plus 5,03% {12.98% of 38.75%} through his shareholding in Tamboran plus circa 2.04% {9.24% of 22.5% X 0.98} through his indirect shareholding in Falcon Australia. The three together add up to 45.82%.

No surprise I strongly concur with your conclusion Mr Gonoles. What might also raise your spirits, one of the reasons BS set out out to invest in the Beetaloo was all the knowledge he gained from his father during his period as a non executive director of Santos.

Good afternoon Mr Gonoles. If you are seeking to record how much Bryan Sheffield and family and associates have invested in the Beetaloo Basin Is there good reason why you have left out his shareholding in Tamboran and/or their investments in the same vicinity?

Yes, very much so Mr Nortthern Magic....However we are in a so much better position than where we were 16-17 months ago in September 2022. Origin has stepped down, positive changes have since been made in overall board control at Tamboran, and Falcon's prospects have become increasingly underpinned by the Bryan Sheffield {BS} view that the Beetaloo Basin down under contains one of the most exciting global LNG plays outside North America - which ultimately might even rival the Marcellus field in the US.

Not only has BS invested personal money but he has already brought in investors through his new private equity fund which initially is exclusively targeting investments in the Northern Territories in Australia, but he has also encouraged others like H&P and Liberty, and key financial investors who have enjoyed previous success with BS and his family in Pioneer {which this month is subject to a takeover from ExxonMobil which is expected to complete in the first quarter 2024}.

What that all means in terms of a future Falcon share price will only become a little clearer in circa 25 days time. But such is current confidence of BS/Daly Waters, and family and friends, and partners in the Beetaloo Basin and surrounding areas, shareholders in Falcon are almost certainly already assured a take out price higher than today's levels and there's finally the prospect of sustainable future rises in the share price....One can envisage all Falcon investors increasingly appreciating the transformation to their prospects from the upcoming US makeover of its operating partner in 2024 and the increasing probability that their acreage in the Beetaloo will be commercially developed .