The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
I hope the following might clarify some of misinterpretations recently posted here…
Recent TBN price = AUD 0.26
TBN market cap. = AUD 368 million
Equivalent FOG market cap = AUD 107million (22.5/77.5 X AUD 368 million)
GBP FOG market cap = GBP 60 million
Actual FOG market cap = GBP 69.4 million
In summary the figures show (no surprise at all) that FOG shares on the London AIM trade at a 15% premium to TBN shares on the ASX.
Most analysts anticipate in Australia and in the UK that the premium will increase more next year if drilling results are favourable. National oil companies will increasingly look to see if they can buy in a stake from POQ in the Beetaloo and if Bryan Sheffield and partners want to maintain their interest they’ll have to preempt others and put their money on the table early and as soon as the second half of 2023..
Conversely this time next year TBN will be again looking for new cash, and again Ritter will find himself again over reliant on support from BS..::and that means BS will ultimately fix a price that is clearly in his favour. to provide further support for the Beetaloo project.
In the meantime I’m very encouraged today by the latest FOG share option news (and the level of premium on the strike price) and Macquarie’s decision to grant EEG an albeit very small AUD 10 million revolving credit facility on their Beetaloo project..
Are you quite sure Mr Scinceday1? Can I kindly suggest you check the Maths.
You are right Mr Guernica. Some of the comments and conclusions in this article are totally bizarre. She obviously has no idea that there are other sources of supply from Africa, Azerbaijan and the Turkic countries, Israel, Lebanon and Egypt and the US.
And we have further news this evening. TBN have put on their website a new company presentation which is to get an airing at their AGM and their investor Q & A session that follows the AGM.
The Board should thank you again and again Mr Newto setting aside so much time patiently responding to sometimes very bizarre comments.
From my point of view I find more interesting this evening the interview that TBN's Mr Ritter and a broking analyst that have been aired on the Australian website Share Cafe. In particular Mr Ritter's comments on its new shareholder who are leading player on shale gas development in the US is quite enlightening. You'll also see that that analysts down under are very bullish indeed on TBN shares in the next 12 months and if they're only 50% right the upside for Falcon shares at today's very low levels is at least double theirs.
Those listening to the 2 interviews should put up again what I recommended yesterday, reading the EEG press release that contained such good news on drilling times and drilling costs.
In the meantime Mr Newtofo it’s very worthwhile if you have the time to read EEG’s press release down under this morning. On the face of it it contains very positive news indeed on drilling times and drilling costs. We can pencil in too more news from EEG in the New Year.
I also take at face value recent comments from TBN, EEG and Falcon that all 3 are sharing latest operating info with each other.
All this in the context of the meeting yesterday between President Xi and the Australian PM. In Bali and their positive comments after the Meeting.
I'm delighted to read that some of you have excitedly turned the page and are now seriously sitting down to plan your golf trips to the Republic in the next couple of years. I myself still believe that monetisation will come a little earlier than Mr Newtofo is predicting but I think it's best to put that debate aside and turn our full attention first to the two planned horizontal wells.
I want POQ to tell us straight next week a bit more on what went on behind his and Falcon Australia's owners' backs. What is already clear to at least some of us is the extent Mr Calabria and Origin's (very) poor behavior to POQ and FOG. We can't fix it but some guidance from POQ on what remedial steps the Company is now taking to reduce the pain and cut out similar action in future would be very welcome.
I'm also looking for confirmation next week that the first of the two horizontal wells have been spudded. And linked to that an indication of how much knowledge has been transferred from the Tamboran j,v. or EEG on best practise for drilling and fracking. What's more, if it's already been decided, Can the Company give us confirmation that our new drilling partner (see TBN investor page) will be in position to take on its key role on the second horizontal well.
I'm disappointed the share price remains so low. On the other hand like Mr Poods I've bought a few more. I realise however significant interest at least on my side of the pond will not pick up until the prospect of commercialisation starts to increase. The substantial tax incentives offered to some UK investors on London AIM are not enough.I welcome therefore any plan to work with Bryan Sheffield and our non execs. when more news come through to support more our share price.
The jungle drums are beating out a louder and louder message in North America that the Beetaloo compares well with Marcellus. There's even evidence this past fortnight of increasing interest on the US OTC and the TSX. I want now POQ's confirmation that the new j.v. partners are going to be a lot more focused of proving up our find and are committed to keeping all investors in the j.v. fully informed.
I agree Mr Betyar but the latest one at 6.6 pence (circa CAD 0.10) with strong possibility that one could make 6-7X or more over the next 18 months - 2 years is a pretty good bet....Nevertheless reading the rest of the analyst's comments I liked confirmation of the j.v.'s imminent start of the work programme.. ..and news of the revamped NT government's backing of the Beetaloo project. I also welcomed the more detailed explanation of 'proration' units including why POQ et al are insisting on it in the new agreement.
What I'm looking for next is a more detailed summary of the new partners' j.v. agreement as and when it is signed ....and before the end of the year a new investors' presentation plus news of Management's intentions to present the case to Bryan Sheffield's private equity investors in the US and to other specialist oil and gas funds in North America.
In the meantime I found the Herald Tribune article that was highlighted on the Empire Investor Relations page worth a read and I recommend everyone on this board should sign up for all news releases from TBN and EEG if they have not already done so.
Cenkos issue a BUY recommendation for their clients on Falcon shares this morning.
I hope Mr Betyar I might have answered part of your question below. ...We're definitely better off with Bryan Sheffield leading the j.v. on the next round rather than Mr Calabria. On the other hand it would have been even nicer if Bryan Sheffield would have decided to do the next stage solely with us, but it was not to be. Very clearly Bryan Sheffield concluded rightly at the the time he had little or no chance to get such a favourable personal deal with the Falcon team.....
I have sympathy with you Mr Wetwater. It is sometimes quite difficult to ignore some of the trolls' foolish posts on this board. On the other hand I learned early on from others it's much more rewarding to simply filter these posts out.
As for prospects for Falcon what has not changed since September 20. We investors, are still waiting for the two horizontal wells in Phase III to commence drilling. ...Of course we lost 5-6 weeks sorting out the j.v. but given the twin-news that we'll be starting before the end of this month and the Tamboran partnership's confidence that some of that time will be made up, we should still hear some news in mid-January 2023.
I think all parties Including Bryan Sheffield) are confident (and maybe more confident) now that everyone is on board together that the two horizontal wells will yield good results. What I hope we'll also receive are indications that drill times can be shortened and drill costs can be reduced. Success on both counts will certainly improve probability of commercial development of the Basin and boost the value of Falcon's properties in the first half of next year.
The new j,v. too gives us a little extra money in 2023 and much improved internal checks and protection for us as the minority partner in the j.v. In essence it protects us against other parties wasting our money and backing us into a corner.
What it's also going to do if all goes well in Phase III is to make Falcon a prime takeover target next year and give Falcon's management a lot more options on a refinancing or an outright sale.
In summary POQ and the board have successfully bought the company more time this month (when the tectonic plates move), and kept us all very much in the game.
Mr Smallfish9 it normally pays to filter out much of the rubbish that Mr Oleo writes….
i fully agreewith your conclusions Mr Newtofo
Good idea Mr Longknife but in the meantime don't waste any time reading posts by persons who sold their Falcon shares at least 12 months ago.
IMHO a sensible approach is to roll forward in your mind and anticipate what might be Falcon's position in 6-7 months time. The 2 horizontal wells would have been fracked and the partners will have the results of the drilling. It might not be as good news as we all hope but on the other hand the odds are the news will be very favourable. If the latter, Falcon's position would have exponentially improved and give the Company many more options than it has today...In the meantime what the board has achieved is to not only successfully buy the Company more time (and bit more cash) but also enhance the internal checks and the 'optionality' of the parties in the whole deal , and in particular protect the minority investor (Falcon) from early dismissal.
Mr Hardrock will also tell you above all the first of the two horizontal wells will now be spudded before the end of the month.
One final point don't overlook that royalties on Falcon's acreage total 4% (2% for BS and 1% for Bayliss and 1% for the local people) and 9.3% on the Tamboran partnership land (1% for the local people, 1% for Bayliss, 5.5^ for Origin and 2.3% for BS). That could be very positive for our company next year...
That’s wrong Mr Longknife. If you had listened to the call you would have heard POQ give a strong hint who the party was. I think the numbers you are using are misleading you…,
Mr Nervesof steel a recording will be available....
I'm looking forward now to the 10 o'clock call this morning. On the face of it Falcon has secured (through extra funding) their position until completion of the original Phase III, built in more internal checks in the (new) joint venture and taken steps to ensure the Company retains all its options next year post the drilling results.
I'm guessing where Falcon are today (pre the drilling and fracking of the two horizontal wells) proved too hard a sell in a 4 week period in the uncertain 'risk-off' markets. That hopefully will be a lot less so in 6 months time, and we can add Bryan Sheffield and/or the 'Tamboran' partnership to the list of big O&G players and the long list of national oil companies in SE Asia who will have the necessary time for their DD. At that stage Falcon Australia's 22.5% share will be worth relatively more than TBN's share in the Beetaloo if drilling results meet Mr Ritter's high expectations and odds on the probability of Beetaloo commercial development would have improved.....
Mr Wetwater, It will depend on the exact wording in the Agreement. Under normal circumstances Falcon Australia would have been given the option of offering a cash equivalent. What's more if it were seen that Falcon was offering Origin some certainty in reducing their write off at their next accounting year end CEO Calabria would look rather foolish if he wanted to challenge it in court.
Have a read also of the Cenkos report on the 20 September. In the meantime what's the red herring is what Bryan Sheffield paid Falcon earlier this year and the value he's agreed with Mr Ritter.
What I think is worth working out Mr Newtofo is how much Origin have valued their 5.5% royalty. What I'm effectively looking for are the figures Origin have in their spread sheet for total commitment on the Origin/Falcon j.v.,the AU$ 80 million unspent at end July 2022, monies receivable under the 'Tamboran' deal plus the 5.5% royalty and how much Origin told its shareholders they expect to write off in their books if the 'Tamboran' deal is completed.
IMHO the figure that Origin.assumes for the royalty is the figure than any court would expect Falcon to lay on the table in their matched bid.
And my understanding and I'm sure you picked up over the years the same is that POQ has kept particularly close to half a dozen players helped of course by the fact that they've wanted to keep close to Falcon too.Fortunately the company has also kept its own data room fully up to date and on the accounting and legal side kept everything clean. Our CFO is going to have a very helpful role in the next few weeks and it's fortunate too that BS topped up our working capital.