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Absolutely right Mr Newtofo. If there’s to be a dispute it will likely be between Origin Energy and Falcon Australia debating what is the value of the Origin 5.5% royalty in October 2022 (I.e. before the completion and fracking of the two planned horizontal wells)…What’s more if it can’t be settled before the parties go to court the TBN/Origin deal will be toast.

I bet BS is not too pleased he’s found himself mixed up in this mess and one should not therefore rule out Mr Riddle and friends being dumped and kicked into touch. TBN and/or Origin clearly did not think this deal through and one or both of have intentionally or otherwise misled various parties on this proposed deal.

Can I suggest FOG shareholders this evening should continue to monitor TBN’s shares on the ASX since any continued weakness will give further warning that the planned deal is not going to happen.

I’m still struggling to understand why some of you just don’t get it. I understand why you want to take at face value Mr Riddle’s comments. As of yesterday Origin Energy is not in a position to sell in the next 30 days its 77.5% interest in the Beetaloo Basin and TBN is in no position to raise the money on the ASX to complete the deal…and this situation will only change if Falcon Australia’gives its approval.

In the meantime iI’s nice that there’s been more follow through this afternoon (and with higher turnover) in the FOG share price which continues to recover.Some of you might even suspect that the Market does not share some of the naysayers’ views.

Yes Mr Nervesofsteel. It confirmed to me that I should have every confidence that I was right to add another 10% to my holding yesterday morning/afternoon.

I also discerned from the note that there might be different legal opinions as to what might be the value of Origin Energy’s 5.5% royalty in this deal in the middle of next month.

Either various parties were very negligent when putting together this deal ( e.g. very surprising indeed in this instance that the people involved took certain things for granted) or some of the principals were very economic with the truth when seeking third party sets of approvals.

I do rather think some of you on this board should sign up, if you can, to read the latest (confidential) CenkoS’ analyst report. At least it will then make some peoples’ comments on this board somewhat better informed.

Nice to see this morning FOG shares in London are beginning to recover their equilibrium. In the meantime I don’t see Mr Riddle and TBN being able to complete their fund raising plans until FOG makes clear what are its intentions on its pre-emptive right …and if there’s a risk of a legal challenge that results further delay, this would scupper the Origin Energy/TBN deal.

In the meantime I think it’s worth reading some of the macro numbers that our company broker have set out in their report yesterday. If it’s correct to assume FOG’s pre-emptive right gives it effective exclusivity FOG itself has made itself by this week’s action a very valuable asset and/or a very attractive partner to develop circa 4.5 million acres in the Beetaloo Basin.

And one further point that perhaps should be raised, that no don’t is giving rise for concern to the TBN and Origin Energy boards. If there’s any ambiguity over FGOGcand Falcon Australia’s pre-emptive right, under what jurisdiction will it be settled in court…

A very good post this afternoon by Mr tdafalcon. I agree too with Mr Newtofo that BS , although a very welcome change from the confused Origin Energy board, is a party that POQ and our Chairman will recognise they must protect all shareholders’ interests by making full use of all the takeover rules on the London AIM and the TSX.

I’m very happy this evening that the shares have rebounded in North America and I personally had the confidence to add another 10% to my position this morning.

What’s intriguing me too this evening, and no doubt we’ll find out in due course, how detailed are FOG’s pre- emptive rights (e.g, how do they value in October 2022 the new 5.5% Origin royalty) and is this pre-emotive right in effect an exclusive right for FOG in this deal.

Personally I think that BS was surely right to work through TBN… Using Falcon would surely have been embarrassing for the Origin Energy board. But we have moved on now. Falcon can be seen in the light of their pre- emption right.

One last thought iMHO BD and his family are very successful business people. They’re not going to ruin their reputations now by getting involved in anything underhand.

Mr Oleo I’m not quite where you are coming from You have this fixation over South Africa that is so corrupt it’s no longer even able to supply energy to its people and its President has had to cut short his trip to the UK to attend her Majesty’s funeral.

FoG’s partner in the Beetaloo is set to change. We still hold our 22.5% interest. FOG’s outlook almost certainly has improved. I’ve happily bought more FOG shares on AIM this morning at well below 7 pence per share

Important not to overlook that UK investors investing in FOG shares through the UK AIM exchange get significant tax benefits which we would want to hang onto until we can fully monetise our asset….:

In the meantime it’s worth looking again at the two recent presentations made by Mr Close on behalf of TBN. He has no doubt whatsoever that the Basin holds multi TCFs of gas. What we’re all now trying to prove up are companies’ capabilities of reducing the cost of extracting the gas. Whether the new Tamboran consortium or A.N. Other party takes on this role in 2022 and 2023 the upside potential for FOG shares over the next 9 months or so ought to be at least a 5-6x multiple from here if the probability of commercial development can be proven…,,

Hi Mr Newtofo nothing yet received…can you check the number including country code

Congrats a very thoughtful post Mr Newtofo... I’m sure you are right to assume that no one had any advantage leaking to Falcon details of the proposed deal in advance.

I think Mr Riddle might not have built into his strategy this turn of events from his rival Falcon. If nothing else Mr Riddle might now feel he needs to have a word with BS on what inducement could be offered to Falcon to persuade POQ et al to support the deal.

Mr Newtofo’s other suggestion that Santos might be an interested party also makes much sense. In the meantime I’m pleased. Falcon shares had good support this afternoon in the US and Canada.

This is primarily a Bryan Sheffield (BS) deal and in this instance TBN is his preferred vehicle given the fact it would have been too embarrassing if FOG would have been put forward instead.

I’m not familiar with the terms of FOG’s preemptive rights on this deal but it’s clearly not practical for our company to consider competing with BS on this transaction . If we want to consider becoming involved it would have to be, given the likely timeframe, with the full support of BD and friends.

As for the Guardian article, careful reading indicates no no comment that our 2 horizontal wells will now be four and it makes clear that the parties have included terms that drilling need no longer be held up pending completion of this deal. What surprised me most was not the writers’ strange opinion that the Federal Government might plump for an energy rationing policy and continued reliance on coal, but just how much Mr Calabria and his board of directors had been spooked by the Russian investor’s circa 3.5% stake in the project. Could they really have been so ignorant of the actions of the US government in 2018 to place heavy restrictions on the investor’s shareholding in FOG.

Mr Longknife, the Tamboran consortium no doubt will have to commit to fund in full Origin’s requirement under Phase III of the original BV agreement with Falcon Australia.

Utter nonsense to suggest that FOG shares should have any reason to ‘tank’ on Tuesday morning. Mr Calabria and his board simply wanted to exit at any price..,.

Dprussy ought to be very pleased with this deal, and Mr Riddle and his board must be absolutely delighted that this deal does not now require Origin Energy shareholder approval.

What I’m looking out for now are the BS terms for funding TBN on this transaction.

I don’t think POQ and the team are going to be upset with this turn of events either. FOG now have professional partners who are going to accelerate future development of the Beetaloo and our share price will no doubt in due course benefit from greater US interest in the Basin.

I was going to suggest Mr dprussky hi hat you should have the patience to wait until next week but of course I had forgotten you were no longer an investor in FOG.

Overall I think I’m agreeing with Mr Newtofo on this one. To try and guesstimate logically what is Mr Calabria’s strategy on his deal this weekend is going to be rather difficult. What I recommend instead is one should try and put in one’s minds an Origin board of directors, with worry beads in their hands, have turned themselves into very distressed sellers.

Mr Riddle I’m sure, is rubbing and rubbing again his eyes and probably can’t quite believe his luck. His oil minnow company going nowhere for the rest of the year is probably going to buy a stake as large as Falcon’s in IP98 for a knockdown price and two horizontal wells that will be drilled before the end of the year. What’s more he has at least 2 willing partners, Bryan Sheffield and Helmerich and Partners.

I presume Mr Sheffield will use his family trust vehicle (rather than his private equity firm Formentara - it’s worth reading the firm’s website - but the latter will give him all the expertise that he requires to deal with Mr Calabria in his current state..

I don’t believe that Falcon has any direct involvement in this deal except ultimately if the lawyers can all agree final terms (time diffences will hold things up) Falcon will then be asked to sign off the deal at the bottom of the page. Whoever are the buyers they will of course have to commit to complete Phase III of our drilling programme which thanks to Mr Calabria is not now running on time.

My guess is Origin are exiting the equivalent of circa 15% of their total holding in the Beetaloo but a very much larger proportion (at least 50%) of IP98. That being the case management of this year and the next 2 years’ drilling programmes will change hands and hopefully this will significantly reduce some of the frustrations we’ve all had in recent periods. Both Tamboran and ourselves are also now going to have a much higher profile in the US and no doubt in due course a re-rating of both. Companies’ shares.

In the meantime I wish Mr Calabria and his board all the best for the future and hope they find an opportunity early next year to sell on their stakes in the two other Beetaloo areas.

In the original Origin /Facin deal Origin did not acquire its ‘interest’ in the Beetaloo until it completed in full its drilling programme. One has to assume therefore this requirement was watered down when Origin agreed with Falcon to increase its spending on the project.

Meanwhile dealings in TBN shares have been halted this morning on the Sydney Stock Exchange with an indication given that the quote might only be restored on Monday 19 September….An early announcement by the Company is expected.

If Origin is looking to raise (urgen) funds by selling a circa 15% stake in its holding of circa 3.5 million acres in the Beetaloo Basin for AUD 150 million it should be clear why Mr Sheffield and others would be interested in staking TBN to complete such a deal.

Ultimately Cenkos view on this deal when it’s formally announced in the next few days ought to interest reading.

I'm going on vacation before Christmas in Angola and Namibia and one or two other places, and early next year I'm in southern Africa again, travelling as far north to the Victoria Falls and the Zambezi on the Zambia/Zimbabwe border before travelling west into Botswana in the Okavango Delta. The Karango Basin is a small area within the delta, on its west side near the Namibian border. Whatever the Botswana government decides it wishes to do in the Okavango Basin has no relevance whatsoever to the Karoo basin in South Africa. Like sensible people on this board I remain content that POQ does not waste any material time on Hungary and South Africa and I am very pleased too he continues to take the time to update us on the outlook in these two regions at the company's regular investor gatherings.

What I'm focused on is the small bet that the Sheffield family have placed on the Beetaloo basin and the fact they're clearly very confident that they'll be in a position to collect early next year. They already have plans to roll the dice again almost certainly with some of their Pioneer partners, given the latter will be looking for a new play with all the dividends from Pioneer Inc. I'm presuming FOG will play a significant part in the next round if especially if its paper earns for itself a justified (significant) premium compared to the less well-endowed TBN and EEG stocks. However if the drag from retail investors proves too much no doubt our American investors will consider buying us out.

in summary what I'm saying is the opening up of the Beetaloo will by the middle of next year be entering into a new phase, and either larger investors will have driven our shares higher to 45-50 pence or more, or the Sheffield family and friends will use a different vehicle to buy us all out (since they'll conclude there's no merit in FOG retaining its quotation). . In the meantime forget the silly posters on this board, the directors of our company and our largest shareholder have their money down and are fully backing the executive team of FOG.

I leave you too with one further thought. I don't think it's bad news either that early next year Origin will be looking to farm down at least 50% of their holding in the Beetaloo. They won't be selling their share for USD100 per acre! Whatever the figure the hedge funds will have a better basis on how to value our FOG shares.

There does seem to be continued confusion amongst shareholders on this board as to who does what in the Beetaloo Basin. The Origin/FOG wells have been contracted out to Schlumberger. Investors should appreciate too that the strategic decision by POQ and the Board to sell on 'the FOG' royalty has brought in the Sheffield family and with it the appointment of Tom Layman to the FOG board, who is now sharing a lot of his knowledge and experience derived from working with lead companies in the US over the past 30 years. Layman's ability to direct the partners on a new strategic path is already clear and no doubt has influenced other players like Santos, EEG and TBN. In due course Tom's coming on board and the full support of the Sheffield family, will help POQ and our Chairman Joe Nally, to get the FOG message across to investors.

Once and for all people investing in this company and reading this board ought to understand that what Origin has brought us is inter alia a lot of valuable skills on how to deal equitably with all the stakeholders in the Territory, and fly the Australian flag for all and provide the clout to get us preferential treatment when dealing with third parties like Schlumberger.

It's nice to see Mr Newtofo becoming increasingly excited by some of the numbers. He's right of course and so are some on this board who have bought a few more shares this week and pushed the price up a little to more than 9 pence.