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Mr Newtofo's comments on Saturday that it's a long time since directors have entered into the market and bought shares resonated strongly with me. Today's PR announcement this morning further echoes that message to the extent that it's a resounding vote of confidence in the company by those closest to the action.

i suspect the shares acquired have come from a loose distressed holder in Canada. The price that the shares have traded at over the holidays at 12.5-13.5 cents was even below those in London and i won't therefore be surprised if more came on offer at those prices this week they will be very quickly snapped up. Actually I don't rule out either that the Sheffield family and friends in due course will also be steered towards our Falcon shares that are traded here in London, and Toronto.

Happy New Year

Experienced watchers read this latest PR as a bunch of guys so excited that they feel they had to come out with something when sitting on their hands would almost certainly have been the better option; and what they have said to the ASX this morning is amusingly in Australian rather than their ancestors' mother tongue.

Are there any positives in the statement? Definitely! Definitely yes! The two 2H and 3H horizontal wells have been successfully fracture stimulated across 11 and 10 stages respectively within the target Mid-Velkeri formation. Gas is flowing from the wells. And the team have sought to remind readers (unnecessarily IMHO) that the 3MM daily threshold is the all-important number in 30 days time in their multi-stacked play.

And what about the timing? it's mid-Summer down under. Everyone is on the beach or on the golf course and most Aussies have no intention to go back to their offices or read a broker's report much before 10 January. You're right Mr Newtofo. They should have waited....

And then there's the other funny peculiar or funny ha-ha bit in the statement. They say they are not going to update us for another 30 days. 150 Aussies and a gang of Texans keeping their mouths shut while out celebrating every night with the hottest and most valuable inside knowledge on the planet? Not likely. Indeed not very likely at all. My bet is the Origin team will know for sure on 10/11 January and if they know so will our BoD team even if some of them are woken up in the middle of the night to hear it.

Quite frankly my betting is on the father and son Sheffield family team. They know a big, actually a very big non conventional dry and wet gas play with stupendous porosity, thickness measures et al when they see it. And they have been openly willing to put their reputation on the line this last month for this Beetaloo Basin play.

I don't know whether it will be a local politician, an institutional analyst or a few Texans trying to buy a few TBN shares on the ASX that will let the cat out of the bag early next year, but when they do IMHO the Origin/FOG 4.6 million acres in the Beetaloo Basin will become one of the most sought after properties on the Market.

Happy New Year everyone.

Scott Sheffield head of Pioneer Resources gave an interesting interview in the last few minutes on CNBC. Pioneer Resources' shares forecast 2021 yield is over 11% and the company, Scott said, will be debt free by the end of 2022. He echoed the comments of Aramco on the oil outlook. He sees Brent back over USD 85.00 quite soon as demand worldwide continues to rebound (with reducing anxiety over the latest COVID variant) and is bullish on prospects for oil and LNG end 2022 and 1H 2023. (Interesting to see if FOG share his outlook in the next 90 minutes). Scott commented too on high LNG prices in East Asia and how much higher they are compared to other markets.

The FOG call is at 15.00 GMT or 10.00 EDT. It ought to be quite interesting.

Like Darnitagain I see the potential for more than one suitor and would not rule out either Inpex partnering with A.N.Other. I suspect also that strategically current management of Origin will not be minded either to take on long term converting itself into an exploration business.

It's clear both the Chinese and the Japanese do not have sufficient supplies medium term to meet their LNG needs.

Like Darnitagain I see the potential for more than one suitor and would not rule out either Inpex partnering with A.N.Other. I suspect also that strategically current management of Origin will not be minded either to take on long term converting itself into an exploration business.

It's clear both the Chinese and the Japanese do not have sufficient supplies medium term to meet their LNG needs.

EEG's latest news release on Carpentaria-2 is positive as it confirms what we earlier learnt from Carpentaria-1 and we can therefore look forward to the results of fraccing a horizontal well at Carpentaria-2 next year.

i am however more encouraged overnight and so should those invested in the Beetaloo Basin by Sam Chambers analysis in Splash of a S&P Global Platts report that states inter alia that despite the fact that US exports have risen exponentially to become China's second largest LNG supplier surpassing Qatar, Indonesia and Malaysia, Australia's share still surged to 25.9 million tonnes as China's demand grew 30% during the first ten months of this year. In fact Platts report China has now surpassed Japan to become the world's largest importer of LNG and explains why the prices outlook in the region continues to be so firm. Moreover China have launched a big building programme to meet the need to import much larger quantities of LNG in the next 25 years.

It's interesting to see Tamboran posting another press release on Monday morning Down Under on the ASX repeating again what they had already told investors in October this year and more than once this month. Origin/Falcon cannot be compared to a minnow like Tamboran or EEG who feel a need to promote themselves at regular intervals given their reliance in the next year o two to pass the hat around regularly for top-ups in funds. However it's not nice as in this case Tamboran attach a map in this press release that shows misleadingly the number of Origin/Falcon wells that have been drilled in the Beetaloo Basin and the much greater acreage that FOG owns relative to TBN or EEG in the Beetaloo core areas.

This of course is rather silly but readers of this board should put far more credence on Newtofo's posting on Friday at 16.12 which sets out the key numbers that depict the extent that FOG shares are significantly undervalued relative to the TBN share price.. But in the meantime no concern that the Minnows want to highlight again and again to the Market that important news might be coming before the end of the year on the T2H and T3H Santos/Tamboran well drilling results as sooner or later the AIM market in London and North America will realise the same..

I see again Mr Newtofo that our comments have crossed. We both have the same conclusion but well done indeed for digging out the Stockhead article that is just not an useful map but articulates nicely the views of Tamboran's Mr Riddle. It's obviously important to FOG that ORG will take similar steps to Tamboran next year to make sure they are contracting with a crew from the contractors who have the US specialist experience in the Permian Basin to help them best target the right depths and bring down the drill costs of their two planned horizontal wells

Right on the button Mr Newtofo. And thank you also Mr Schlemeil for all your time and effort digging up what are the Federal Government's policies on a range of topics linked to the development of the Beetaloo Basin. Personally I think the Commonwealth strategy is sensible particularly if it leads in the next few years to less coal mining in Australia and more conversion to LNG of coal fired installations in East and South East Asia.

The Australian government's sensible strategy contrasts sharply with the US which is moving heaven and earth to reduce new fossil fuel development but not wanting to accept the cost of higher import prices from OPEC and partners including Russia. That leaves major investors and sovereign wealth funds in Origin/FOG's region (where countries do not want to contemplate nuclear, and an appreciation that hydrogen and other non fossil fuel alternatives will not come on board much before 2035) increasingly following progress of development work in the Beetaloo.

Relative to Tamboran and EEG, FOG shares are clearly relatively cheap. But that's only helpful to those who will be charged when the time comes to sell the story (and/or the few who don't have already too much in this play and want to add more). IMHO most holders can only sit tight and wait with anticipation results first from Tamburan/Santos at the end of the year and then (I sincerely hope) next year when Origin get on with drilling and fraccing two horizontal wells as part of their earn-out agreement with Falcon.

Obviously I'm a lot happier in November 2021 than I was one, two, three years ago. Most long term holders should feel the same.

I agree Mr ITguy. And for the record I note too that RaaS Advisory Pty (RaaS) put out another research note overnight Down Under on behalf of EEG wishing to record inter alia the '...growing interest from experienced US capital'....the report further notes 'positive look-through data from regional operators Origin/Falcon and Santos/Tamboran that add more grist to the emerging Beetaloo sub-basin commercialisation model...' RaaS 'envisages a number of significant re-rating events in the next 6-7 months ....these include fresh seismic data and completion of the Capentaria-2 program and read-throughs from flow and production testing results from the Santos operated Tanumbirini 2H and 3H wells...The report is looking for further good news in the next 6-7 months to materially increase EEG's 2P + 2C volumes (and if they do they will similarly deliver for Origin/FOG and Santos/Tamboran).

Before I get pulled up for my last comment , apologies to Scott Fitzgerald Senior it should have read Scott Sheffield.

It will be however interesting to see if the respected industry analyst at Cenkos this morning also offers a comment on the Tamboranj news.

Tamboran shares have opened strongly today on the ASX at 40 cents at a premium to the placement issue price of 37 cents and in the first couple of hours have risen further to 42 cents. (ORG-ASX shares are also up this this morning, back over AUD 5.00. The Tamboran formal announcement this morning indicates that the actual amount raised has increased since yesterday and existing large holders have invested AUD 15 million more (up from AUD 10 million overnight) alongside the Sheffield family.

What has intrigued the market Down Under is not just their past considerable successes of the Sheffield family in their Permian investment through Parsley Energy between 2008 and 2021 and the Tamboran board securing a new strategic investor, but the fact that the father Scott Fitzgerald Senior has pre-knowledge of the Beetaloo Basin as a non executive Director of Santos between 2014 and 2019 and Santos today is the operator of EP161 and where it has earned a 75% working interest from Tamboran.. Scott's son, Bryan Sheffield is now joining the board of Tamboran as a non-exec. director.

In the Tamboran statement lodged on the ASX this morning. Bryan Sheffield commented in the statement that '..the Beetaloo sub-basin has a number of the key elements of a world-class shale play. The mid-Velkeri shale has a large aerial extent, ample thickness and great rock quality.....'. Comments on the deal by analysts Down Under inter alia describe operators' development of the Velkeri play in the Beetaloo as one of the hottest shale gas plays on the globe.

The terms of this deal and the list of parties involved in it on the face of seem to have allowed Tamboran to make the placement without a full disclosure agreement under Listing Rule 7.1. Notwithstanding this, the Australian market has reasonably concluded that the Sheffield family and the original investors were very happy to invest in the placement. Applying 'near-ology' an often applied investment criteria, FOG and Origin shareholders should be equally content by the Tamboran announcement this morning..

In the meantime Tamboran confirmed that the company through Santos are on course to fracture stimulate both wells in EP161 and announce flow test results before the end of this calendar year. Tamboran have also confirmed that the new money raised will be used to accelerate the calendar year 2022 work programme and working capital purposes. After the issue there will be 747 million Tamboran shares in issue. That rather suggests FOG shares might be relatively good value.

The Tamboran board clearly did not want to pass up the opportunity to bring the Sheffield family on board but they at least offered existing large holders the opportunity to subscribe for more shares alongside them. Even so what's clear is that the overriding reason for this decision was the company's difficulty back in July in raising in full the money that they required at the AUD 0.40 issue price. What's going to be interesting tomorrow is to see if the issue terms fall within the rules that they don't have to issue a full disclosure statement on what information was shared.

More directly maybe more relevant to FOG shareholders LNG Shipping rates from Australia to Japan continue to hit record highs (50% higher than Atlantic rates) as the forecasts of a tougher winter in Japan, Korea and Northern China have increased.

One other thing worth considering as we come to the end of the dry season in the Beetaloo. ORG, FOG and EEG shares are up more than 20%, Santos despite the oil price rise is down 2%, and Tamboran has been unable throughout the period to trade as high as its 40 cent issue price. I rather think we might just outperform this group over the next 12 months as well.

Timing of this announcement by Tamboran is a little surprising. It's much too early for results from their Santos wells. And..If new shareholders are coming on board one might expect existing ones to be none too pleased. That being the case one envisages that existing large holders must be happy to top up their subscriptions from last July having been persuaded that an injection of new money today rather than in in 10-12 weeks time will allow the Company to complete on something that might not be available to them later.

I realise that this is a bit far fetched but the only support that I can offer for this theory, is that Tamburan only raised a fraction of what they originally sought to raise in July this year at AUD 0.40.

Other sensible theories of course are welcome.

In the meantime shareholders in FOG, Tamboran, Santos and Empire,... and the Federal Government of Australia and local politicians and peoples in the Northern Territories are all looking for positive results from planned fraccing at the end of 2021 and during 2022 that will contribute to the perception that the dry gas and wet gas in the Velkeri rocks in the Beetaloo and surrounding area is of such size that it is a commercial find. Bits of news this year have been very positive (and this was confirmed by POQ et al at the FOG AGM this month),but like it or not (and POQ said the same) we need a bit more before the market analysts and the industry increase their probability figure on their spread sheets that the Basin will be commercially developed. Even then we'll still need a Herculean effort by Management to garner support in the Markets beyond retail day traders to lift the trading range of the stock.

May i humbly suggest Mr Oleo that if you have not already signed up for access to the Cenkos' (broker's) research portal that you duly do so this morning. Others might also want to consider doing the the same.

Furthermore those already signed up might be assured by the Cenkos analyst's latest comments this morning that carries with it a buy recommendation for the stock and comment on FOG's (and others) continued progress to reach the appraisal stage on the Velkeri plays in the core and sub-core areas in the Beetaloo Basin.

To add a bit of colour to the numbers, but without making a specific forecast....Slide 19 on the presentation tells us that the current share price of GBP0.08 values the one million acre property at c. USD 120 per acre or c. GBP 80.00 per acre, given the fact we have c.982 million shares in issue.

USD 1,000 per acre would value the company at GBP 0.80 per share. USD 2,,000 per acre would value the company at GBP 1.60 per share ....and so on. Positive results from the Santos well at the end of the year will underpin presumptions that there are Velkeri shale dry gas and Velkeri shale liquids rich gas plays across the whole Origin and Falcon properties in the Beetaloo Basin.

High gas prices and strong regional demand (Slide 16) are positive factors. The stable political environment is another. And LNG is generally looked upon positively by those looking for what we need to rely on before we can fully wean ourselves substantially off fossil fuels in 2040-2050.

Everyone on this site should read in full the latest FOG presentation (November 2021) on their website www.falconoilandgas.com .

Proving commerciality of the Beetaloo core and sub-core Basins is the game plan in the next 12-15 months..... And main targets are clarified as the Velkeri dry gas play, and the Kyalla and Velkeri shale and hybrid liquids rich gas plays (Slide 24) which the maps show (Slides 18 and 23) are ubiquitous in FOG's acreage in the Beetaloo Basin.. And we're now of course in the countdown for the next set of flow news from the fracced horizontal Santos wells at the end of this year (Slide 6).

Management will be in the the chair on Friday at the AGM at 16.00 (Dublin time) sharing with all those attending further detail on our 2021 drilling programme (Slides 10,12 and 13) and how significant the Santos, Tamboran and Empire wells to the west of our properties (Slides 6,7 and 18) will be to our prospects.

Further confirmation of Velkeri flows (see details so far on Slide 7,10,12 and 26) from the planned horizontal wells will give the Basins the development green light, and what that might mean end 2022/early 2023 to FOG and Origin is also partly spelled out on Slide 19.

Clearly access to Beetaloo core and sub-core Basins if developed is going to be a sought after prize... For many countries in the Region it will not only help them maintain GDP growth but at the same time allow them to take out current coal fired installations that's causing increasing pollution in many of the built-up areas in the Region..

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Good evening Mr Newtofo. I fully endorse your comments. Apologies in this instance that our two messages crossed..

I rather suspect that if the Santos/Tamboran news comes up trumps as expected in the next few months I can see Cenkos getting busy at the end of the year/early next on putting together a road show for the FOG team to highlight the prospects of the Beetaloo becoming a commercial project during the course of next year.

The current share price weakness is increasingly showing signs of a seller in distress. I'm pretty sure the shares being dumped in London are not part of the original Petrohunter holder. The latter continues to be dribbled out by a firm of lawyers at a rate that allows them to continue to charge fees at their exorbitant rate. One can only therefore speculate that a party went in too big last month and did not do enough DD beforehand to identify that other than Cenkos we have no other brokerage house closely following our stock.

Hopefully level of support on the ground is set to change in the next 3 months or so but we'll need catalysts like good results from the Santos/Tamboran j/v and Empire Energy to put our shares on a firmer footing.. If and when this occurs I hope our management inter alia make better use of Bloomberg services, amongst other things requesting them to cover the Beetaloo in the US and Canada as well as in the UK

I agree with previous comments that the Kyalla will probably now be left to new partners to develop; nevertheless we've still managed to provide proof of wet gas in the Beetaloo . As long as there are further successes in the Velkeri dry and wet gas areas there's still the prospect of at least a 6 or 7 times bagger from these levels with the option premium payable by punters getting less and less. In fact holders are perhaps very fortunate that progress at last with the drilling and completion of the Origin/Falcon j/v agreement in sight is coinciding with a sharp pick-up of LNG prices in the region.

Santos and Tamboran confirmed last week that their Tanumbirini 2H and 3H wells were well ahead of schedule and drilling costs have been cut as past experience has paid dividends. The partners expect to complete their horizontal by the end of this month and then commence fraccing. No doubt they will keep us informed with results during the rest of the year and early next.. Equally important it will inform Origin/Falcon and Tamboran on their future plans to drill in their own acreage horizontal wells next year. What's more success for the Tamboran/Santos j/v will significantly increase Falcon/Origin's estimated Velkeri shale dry gas reserves in the Beetaloo to the east of the Amungee discovery.

Also progressing this month is Empire who are drilling a 2H well in their Velkeri liquids gas play around their Carpentaria well Analysts believe that positive results will also be supportive of Origin/Falcon's Velkeri 76 well that was spudded earlier in August, and increase expectations that Falcon/Origin's Velkeri wet gas prospects are ubiquitous around the border areas of the Beetaloo property.

Prospects of wet and dry gas in commercial quantities will if proven transform prospects for all the players in the Beetaloo and adjacent properties and speculation will almost certainly increase sooner rather than later that there will be a competitive auction for the assets,

Don't count your chickens yet. We're not over the line. We have had too many false dawns over the years. However the involvement of Tamboran and Santos is helping tilt the odds more in our favour. What's more, rising demand and cutbacks in supply partly political and partly global weather conditions is spurring sharp rises across the globe in gas prices and future expectations