Member Info for BorntoBouggie

Thank you Mr Newtofo. With great pleasure I can confirm I've followed your advice to the letter and the offending posts have been removed.

Very good post Mr WetWater. I've taken the trouble too to press the recommend button at the end of your comment. I more often than not do the same for Mr Newtofo and one or two others. What a pity there's not a delete button to remove some of the more scurrilous posts on this board.

Postal votes in NT election in the 25 constituencies have now been counted. Voters who cast their vote through the postal system had until noon today (2 weeks after the polls closed on 2 August 2020) to deliver them to their 'counting halls'. Final count in the NT election is Labour 14 seats, CLP 8 seats, WA one seat and Independents 2 seats. Of the 4 seats still too close to call overnight Labour triumphed over Blain by 13 votes (2095 to 2082, but lost Barkly by 7 votes (1,724 to 1,717) and Namatjira by 22 votes (1814 to 1792) to the CLP. In Arulen the margin of victory for the TA over the CLP was 42 votes (2,203 to 2161).

The leading political parties have voiced concerns about the lack of independent checks in the system to ensure that the postal votes were cast before the polls shut on the 22 August.

4 seats still too close to call in NT 2020 election.

In Arulen: last updated 1 Sept. ,TA lead CLP by 18 votes (2160 to 2142). In Barkly: last updated 1 Sept., Labour lead CLP by 15 votes (1691 to 1676). In Blain: last updated 1 Sept., Labour lead PLA by 13 votes (2083 to 2,070). And in Namatjira: last updated 1 Sept., CLP lead Labour by 7 votes (1,772 to 1,765). Counting continues in all four.

Counting also continues in the other 21 seats but analysts are calling the results as 13 to Labour, 6 to CLP and 2 for independent candidates.

Latest NT election results with 72.7 votes counted in 25 seats....PLA has 13 seats, CLP now has 6 seats and Independents have 2 seats, leaving 4 seats undecided.

In the 4 undecided seats, in Araluen TA leads CLP by 12 votes (2,137 to 2125). In Barkly PLA leads CLP by 23 votes (!,628 to 1,605). In Blain PLA leads CLP by 14 votes (2056 to 2042). And in Namatjira CLP leads PLA by 9 votes (1753 to 1744). I think one can deduce that when they finish counting these enormous number of votes next week two or three of the candidates might demand a recount. If Mr Mills' TA party loses Araluen they will have no seats in the next Parliament.

On the face of it Mr Origin789 this little deal works well for both sides. USD150k is not too high a cost to extend the option period another 12 months into 2022. We all sincerely hope that by 2022 we will finally know if this Falcon story is going to fly. If results are as good as Origin and the Australian Federal and NT Governments anticipate, any share issue will be relatively small. If after all the wait it's a damp squib Tog Group's option will not be taken up. This option story re a royalty on our gas in the Beetaloo is one of those issues that POQ and the Board inherited from Marc Bruner and his family. POQ had negotiated away most of this royalty since through his dealings with an administrator of one of Marc Bruner's companies. Nevertheless It's an unpleasant reminder of what befell Falcon and Petrohunter shareholders in the past.

Was that press release misleading Mr Greenlanteren64? Not everyone , not even persons in the White House were aware that the world would have to face a COVID pandemic this year in 2019.. Nor were they aware either that the NT Government were to impose a series of rules in the Basin that would slow down to such an extent the drilling programmes and add to the costs. But don't take my word; have a look back instead at some of the very informed postings on this board.

On the other hand it's always better to look forward. There's no NT election for another 4 years and if the PLA can win one/two more seats and the CLP the rest we could have a more favourable climate with greater emphasis on seeking ways to deliver a rebound in the NT economy and more jobs for local people. What's more COVID and global warming has had a significant effect on US energy to the extent that there's no longer the threat of large amounts of liquefied gas being brought over to East Asia markets from the US.

Almost everyone on this board has been here too long and has grievances. but whether it's this company or another company quoted on AIM in the UK the management team have no option but to comply with the Exchange rules and not take personal calls from small investors and have meaningful discussions with them. Direct contact is only limited to AGMs.

As for Cenkos they have brokerage clients and their first loyalty is to them. And in terms of their corporate finance work confidentiality rules bars them from any open dialogue whatsoever. As for Falcon itself it's possibly different from other junior exploration companies as it does not have on its staff full time public relations officer(s). On the other hand the upside for this shortfall is we don't get big headline announcements on a Stock Exchange every time they have a cup of tea with a Halliburton or a transport company, and there's little evidence any more of many leaks before any announcements..

Some of you might yearn the dizzy days and all the excitement of the Bruner family. Personally I don't. In the meantime here's still hoping we'll get the start of good news in the next few months.

Dear Mr Buckeyebull. If you peruse the past 2 years management the directors have clearly taken active steps to control costs and plan fort he type of support they might require if the drilling results in the next few months are very good . May I humbly suggest you also take into account actual costs in local currencies and maybe factor in too Cenkos work not just as NOMAD support for the Company on AIM but on their corporate finance work including negotiating revised terms earlier this year with Origin. The Finance Director also has to undertake all the statutory quarterly reporting to more than one country's stock exchange and various management account reporting to the Board of Directors. And one other thing that's overlooked on this board is how many shares POQ owns. Too often it's been wrongly reported that he does not own any shares. We should also factor that the Company's board of directors who represent us are holders of circa 15% of the shares in issue.

Turning to the issue of hype I would personally be somewhat aghast if Origin or Falcon were to involve themselves in politics. In this context I can reasonably guess that our team recognise that even though the Labour group have won 13 of the 25 seats so far in the NT election, one of these seats has been retained by Paul Kirby in Port Darwin who was the most avid anti-fracker in the last parliament. Latest count is 13 Labour, 2 Independent and 5 to the CLP, and 5 seats officially remain too close to call.

The latest figures as of last night in Australia with 71.2% votes counted based on preference votes, is that CLP is getting very close to getting over the line in Brennan giving them 6 seats. in the other four the MLA candidate leads CLP by 17 votes (2,142 to 2125) in Aruluen, the ALP lead the CLP by 23 votes (1630 to 1607) in Barkly and 21 votes (2023 to 2021) in Blain but they now trail to the ALP by 6 votes (1751 to 1745) in Namatjira.It's very unlikely now we're going to get a final result or know whether the PLA have won one more seat before next week or if the MLA are to retain any interest in the new 'parliament'. The stronger the final count of CLP seats the more likelihood there is going to be focus on making sure that companies like Santos and Origin are not saddled longer term with unnecessary costs.

Companies like Santos and Origin in the Beetaloo Basin and elsewhere fully understand that not only must they prove gas etc. in sufficient quantity in their horizontal tests they must satisfy themselves and the Market that the average selling price & product & transport costs can give them a satisfactory IRR - not something that was mentioned too much all those years ago by former management in the play in Hungary or when they entering into agreements with themselves to sign over 5% royalty payments . As shareholders we've only managed to stay In this play as a result of POQ's actions on the Hess exit and more recently Origin's conclusion in 2019 & 2020 to stay the c

Very good update Mr Schlemeil. Clearly things continue to improve for Mr Gunner as the counting continues. Labour have almost certainly won 13 of the 25 seats, CLP have 4 seats and Independent MPs 2 seats.

The Parties and the election analysts agree that only six seats are still undecided. TA retains a small lead in Araluen over the CLP, but Labour are now ahead of CLP in 3 of the remaining six - Namatjira, Blain and Barkly- and in the remaining two (Brennan and Braitling) CLP lead Labour. The lead in some of these seats has changed a number of times on Sunday and Monday as the counting has continued and we're often only talking about 20-30 votes. As things stand it's not impossible that Labour might finish up with the same number of seats it had before the election. A lot of the perceived political risk in the Origin/Falcon play has therefore been taken out of the equation, and the market more realistically in the next 12 months or so will focus on the strong Federal Government support for the Beetaloo project and the much higher gas price in Australia and Far East markets vis a vis the depressed price in the US. Falcon management however will remain focused on encouraging Origin, Santos and others to keep Government policy under review around some of the additional extraordinary costs that need not necessarily be incurred in future.

In the meantime I'm not too upset that Origin has no desire whatsoever entering into the type of hype that's normally associated with some speculative plays in Canadian and Australian junior exploration stocks. I'm confident that testing will start next month....I have also noted from the Company filings that Management and the Board have taken responsible action on remuneration and bonuses in recent periods.

Absolutely right Newtofo and that's why I'm happy to press again the 'Recommend' button on your latest post..

In the meantime I don't expect much fanfare from Origin in advance to starting any testing programme. Saying something when you don't have anything important to say is a game that should be left to bit players like EEG.

The value of this play will be dictated by forecast average prices received and estimated costs but only when potential buyers become convinced that the Beetaloo is of sufficient size to justify commercial development. There's a lot riding on the Kyalla drilling operation in the next few months. Like quite a few on this board who have too great a proportion of their portfolio invested in this risky play I do hope good news will now come through before the end of the year.

That must be the right conclusion 'Newtofo' Echoing your view the forward netback LNG price of gas was back over AUD6.00 last week. But to make money here and increase the probability that the Beetaloo will be ultimately developed we don't just need state and federal government support we need costs to come down. All clear on the water testing would be a positive development, but a successful hydraulic drilling in the Kyalla giving a prospect of stacked plays is the game changer that we probably need.

In the meantime one small thing for investors on this board; the company has put on its website a new company presentation.

Two things worth noting:
A) Small investor share buying in London continues but it's a difficult market, and bigger blocs of FO-X are being traded on the Canadian market in the last week or so at CAD 0.10.5 and CAD 0.11 often at a discount to the London price. The overhang from the Sweetpea/ Petrohunter shares still being dribbled out by the Vancouver law firm continues to create the variance between the two Exchanges. Hopefully the Market is going to get an update on this bloc of shares before the end of the month.
B) Although POQ should be commended for rushing out a press release just before the Hess warrants expired the Company still needs to raise some cash to exercise the last buy-out tranche of the Petrohunter royalty. I can though see POQ's thinking on this. If it's worth exercising next year or the year after the share price will be a lot higher. But if we're still around 10-15 cents or 6-9 pence or even lower such a prize will no longer be so enticing.

In the meantime I'm looking for an update next week of the netback futures price of natural gas in OZ which ultimately will play a key role in determining the future value of the Company.

It's very clear to all that three regular posters on this site, newtofo, wetwater and Las Vegas Gal are well worth reading. Sadly others who were very good have lost patience over the years.

Fortunate for all of us POQ's struck a very good deal with Origin to keep Falcon in the play. Without it Falcon were toast and the company's options at the time were very limited and even less so today.. On the one hand the NT state and Federal State of Australia remain very supportive of the Beetaloo project. On the other the government's environment concerns have made them over cautious on drilling, water contamination, and transport issues, to the extent that it has lengthened the drilling timelines and added to the costs. Origin also have had to be cautious during the first quarter as they do not want to be seen bringing the virus and other diseases to the local population.

Since 2016 the share price has been weak because not only have drilling costs risen faster than inflation but the LNG netback futures price that measures expectations in the Far East markets (adjusting for transport costs) has been very weak. The net present value today of the discovery is a lot less than it was a few years ago.

I'm still confident that Origin will complete their testing of the Kyalla 117 well but we are even more dependant than we were before that the flow tests come up 'trumps'. Origin need a good result to persuade themselves to move to the next stage and give themselves the confidence that average costs could come down in future with economies of scale.

We have to realise that whereas last year we had a 10% probability of a commercial find, the fundamentals have now altered. Let's hope we have better news later in the year. Thank our lucky stars too that the Beetaloo is not in North America or in Europe but in a safer environment (see newtofo's latest comment) like Australia.

Hi Newtofo

I feel wary of disagreeing to anything because normally my first instinct is to press the recommend button.

I don't disagree in principle with your latest comment. I would only suggest any buyer would probably want a 'slightly' higher IRR than 10% taking all risks into account.

One of the important points overlooked sometimes on this board is that investment analysts are still attributing a high risk factor to the project ever becoming a commercial reality. If the Kyala play turns out just as big as we hope then we will start to see analysts' discount rates falling and the shares being re-rated. Until then we can only be patient.

In the meantime it's clear that gas is going to be important for the next 30-35 years and the markets with the biggest growth prospects are nearer to Beetaloo than Pensylvania in the US.There needs to be a lot more respect too for the Board's decision to appoint someone of POQ's calibre to go toe to toe with Origin and the financial community.

Hi Newtofo

I recall meeting you too with Darron Preston at one of the AGM's but not in the year that the SGM followed the AGM. Darron and I flew over for two AGMs in a row, the second one the year before Bruner got the order of the boot. At the time of the Special GM we had met Bruner in London just 48 hours before the Meeting pointing out inter alia at the time to him and his cronies (including the hapless Hungarian MD) that the institutional group now represented a >50% bloc of the shares in issue. The Russian coming on board had proven to be the catalyst for the investor group.Weeks before Bruner had to cry off attending an institutional meeting at the intercontinental Hotel in Budapest after the investors had flown out for, but suffice to say the Bruner family representatives were not all treated in a very gentlemanly way.

In the meantime can I ask the person seeking to impersonate me (nee The Knight) on this board to kindly desist.

But when reviewing any portfolio decision one ought to review each position not on the basis of what you did on the past but what now, today, is the outlook for the investment. Too many people got dragged into this historically not appreciating that those who safeguard and maintain the rules in Canada would be found wanting when faced with the crimes of a single family in this instance. But that's now behind us. What's important today we must ask do we now have a good punt opportunity whereby holders might make a multiple on the their money if Origin can improve the probability that the Beetaloo project is going to be a commercial play. And there's another difference this time we don't have the same type of hype and a board of directors bent on squirrelling away any profit coming the Company's way for themselves.

ORG ASX up again (+10) this morning in Sydney....and investors are not betting on their retail interests!

I was one of the first few introduced by Carema C. from Burvale back in 2005 to Bruner and Ben Law in London. I travelled several times to Hungary and Vancouver with a giant of a man (in many ways) Darron Preston when visiting several of Bruner 's abodes. Dr Ben Law and Head of Operations Rod Wallis comments at the time on the geology in different parts of the Beetaloo makes me much more relaxed than some others on the degree of difficulty re fraccing 1.75k metres down in the Kyala.

The news so far is reassuring but next steps are most important. What Philip has achieved for us so far, and I take my hat off to him, is sorting out many of the past Bruner issues. We still have part of the 60 million share overhang that's dribbled out each day from a lawyer's office in Canada but that will remove itself as and when ubiquity of the gas and oil condensate is established in the first 3 months on the New Year (i.e. 3Q 2019/20 for Origin). Getting ready to drill the next well on the face of it ate 3Q or early 4Q 2019/20 is also good news.

At the moment share value is only at an option level. Until commerciality can be proven analysts at RBC, Citi and elsewhere in Australia will value Origin's Beetaloo interest at no more than 10% probability . However if Origin comes through with the goods we'll then have a fivefold mark-up minimum as the level of probability in their formulae will increase to 50%. For investors today be happy however that the value of FOG shares are well underpinned at current market levels.

Thinking back to the past I had a lot of respect for Beamreach who I had the pleasure of meeting in a pub near Gatwick in the UK and everyone enjoyed not only Lanman's incisive analysis but also his keen sense of humour when it became increasingly clear that rule enforcement on the Vancouver Stock Exchange had come up woefully short when dealing with some of the former members of the management team. A family institution in Antwerp was very pleased recently to hear that Bruner went bankrupt and lost near all his 6% royalty on the Beetaloo he negotiated for himself just before he was given the push.

Everyone's best guide over the next 100 days is the Origin share price. It's relative strength in recent days tells you all in which direction FOG shares will go next.

This has been a long haul. In my case over 14 years,. It has included 3 visits to Hungary to see at first hand Bruner's largesse at his office in Budapest, tours round his homes in London and 8,000 mile flights to BC to meet Bruner's family at his country cottage near downtown Vancouver and attend FOG's AGM. However I recall falling out early on with FOG's CFO - three or four of us made him rather nervous at these gatherings...Unfortunately it took us too long to fully realise why.

Fortunately our Russian investor with other institutional friends played a constructive role in the end to remove the cancer in the business.....but the extraction very nearly came too late. And all of it was quite a shock to our Hungarian operations team who had thought they were going to become national heroes.

I think this week is going to tell us one way or another if the wait has been worth it. I have 23.00 GMT Tuesday evening or 10.00 Wednesday morning in Sydney in Oz ringed in my diary. Origin have an investor day on Wednesday and they have had enough time to drill a vertical well of 1750 metres and another up to 1500 metres horizontally and do a 'frac. Clearly Philip is hopeful - you only to have to read last month's corporate presentation and UBS in Oz, Cenkos and the Northern Territories Government' have caught the bug in recent months.

If Wednesday goes well, further drilling will add to the excitement next year but the focus will soon switch to FOG's exit options in 2021, and the way the market is developing the Origin team foresee that Philip might be spoilt for choice. ...In the meantime we need the dice to roll our way. What a pity the last few years was spoilt by the regional government moratorium.

Good posts WetWater.

What we need is confirmation of gas in large quantities from a thick seam and if that result comes through it doesn't matter if Santos strike the same in their concession because our operating costs will always be cheaper because their location is deeper below the surface.

I don't underestimate what Philip had to contend with when taking on this challenge. He had an unholy mess to clear up and a lot of silly deals have had to be unscrambled. One or two things still remain - an option on a 1% royalty and a share overhang that has been plaguing the share price the past 24 months.

Everything depends on tomorrow evening.

Hi WS taking your last point first. Yes you're right unless there's tax reasons why falcon is taken out first the deals (Origin farm-out and falcon buy-out) would be done together by a third party. The list of potential buyers/predators is quite lengthy and it's not restricted to the usual suspects like the sovereign wealth funds and the bigger oil companies.

The more data we can collect and the more confirmation we receive in the next few wells.... the level of certainty that the project is commercial increases and analysts sell side and buy side, can justify reducing the risk level in their calculations.

UBS at this stage are still reasonably prudent about what we will find out next but it's a good place to be when one can see that upside potential in August 2019 from current levels looks like 5X or more by 2021.In the meantime a few bits of good news and it will surely double in the next 12 months........ceteris paribus.