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One can assume Mr Newtofo POQ has spies who tell him who is selling and who is buying millions of shares.....Gentlemen like POQ most likely have learnt over the years how to read these boards and spot those who are pumping and those who are ultra rude to suit their own positions. Directors too in this type of company have a little red book for those that they do not wish to engage with.

Turning to more interesting 'titbits' the numbers in the Origin report and accounts are very illuminating and re-confirm what others have wisely commented on in the past. Origin on its own does not have the resources to develop our acreage in the Beetaloo. Its interests medium term are therefore aligned with ours with their need to go to the market once they complete their investment next year and acquire their 77.5% property share . There was possibly some conflict recently as the Company would have been concerned that its margins were coming under pressure (its ROCE fell in the latest period to 4.6%) and it had therefore the need to put a cap on Group borrowings. Fortunately their prospects alongside those of FOG are set to pick up strongly in the second half of next year, underpinned by inter alia the strong LNG price in their markets.

If investors believe we can ultimately commercialize the Beetaloo Basin end 2022/early 2023 one envisages the two two partners now counting on minimal competition in the rest of the world and giving a message to buyers to buyers that the Basin is much nearer to the East Asia markets than the Strait of Hormuz or the Gulf of Oman, and it's located in a relatively good stable environment.

It's increasingly clear that our CEO and the Board clearly believe they are going to have a sensible story to promote over the next 15 months or so. yet another positive sign is that a person with the calibre and experience of Mr Joe Nally has been persuaded to come on board and roll up his sleeves. His original background with Williams de Broe is blue chip and everyone ought to recognise in our community his achievements in recent periods building up his Cenkos business.

Bringing on board Camarco is another good move and ought to deliver in due course institutional support that former Management (Bruner and family et al) preciously won but subsequently recklessly threw away. Trading in the shares in the last week or so and before ought to have educated many of us here that any sustainable share price advance needs more than good news; it must go hand in hand with investors taking 'a longer punt' than too many of the small gamblers here trying to make a small turn in and out in a few hours. Others more wise on this board have made the same point.

I'm hoping like others inter alia the upcoming test results from Santos in the adjacent property could prove the big catalyst/game changer in the next couple of months. In this context one can now see glimpses on how the Company's Board
are properly planning ahead.

The Amugee news was great. What we need now is positive news from a horizontal frac. And when we get it the level of risk that hangs over us as to whether our Basin will ultimately be commercially developed, will dissipate, and any calculation of value per share in future will be calculated more positively with lower discount rates.

In the meantime winds in Europe (seriously) have been blowing the wrong way and have caused a continental energy shortfall, and the US is struggling the same with too much energy infrastructure in or around Louisiana and the Democrats blocking new gas pipelines flowing west to east. That's why the price of natural gas in all markets is sharply up. And new gas fields remain also in short supply.

Personally I did not foresee any opportunity to pick up more stock after recent announcements below 10 pence/17 cents. But I don't think either that these levels will last very long.

With the greatest respect Mr Poods you really don't look so cute carrying on with your silly personal attacks against the Chief Executive and the board. Like most others I normally filter out your comments but I've seen them this time and don't be surprised therefore if Management tracks you through LSE SE and takes action....

Very sound advice as usual Mr Newtofo. Only quibble from my end is I don't think we can count on at this stage more than 50 pence a share as and when Origin completes its programme next year. On the other hand if Origin's contractors can prevail with the Kyalla and they are also able to deliver some good news on our forgotten 4th play, the oil and condensate play in the Hayfield sandstone then 10X may yet prove quite prudent.

II don't believe the big boys and the analysts yet are going to adjust the discount rates in their future cash flow spread sheets .They will want to see further evidence that the Beetaloo will be commercially developed. And therefore you're right on the button when you say that the catalyst for a further big run-up in the FOG shares (and one that will stick) will come from the Santos and Tamboran drilling programme to the east of our property expected now before the end of 2021. Who knows Empire (EEG) might help us too and if they have a success Mr Underwood will try and put it on every TV station and news outlet all the way round the world.

One last point. Anyone topping up at these levels is making a relatively safe bet which will surely become clearer in the next few weeks if as expected the Origin contractors come up trumps again, -this time in the Velkeri wet play.

I suppose Mr Underwood is quite pleased with his cheeky post. Over one million shares traded in his EEG stock this morning. The shares initially rose over 18% to AUD 0.325 but have since come back to AUD 0.30.

The Australian market, like the Dutch market, is rather plagued this year by the kids launching legal cases against companies like Macquarie and Santos on the basis that some of their 20 or 30 year projections on their green agenda might not be achievable. Both main parties at the Federal level and the Northern Territories are very keen to encourage the Beetaloo to be developed if commercial. The current Fed government also put up a fund last year to assist companies like EEG and Santos.

Until Origin has fully complied with the terms of their joint agreement with Falcon by the end of 2022, Falcon retains its 100 per cent interest in the Beetaloo.

in the meantime one of the oddest things that have happened to Falcon over the last 5 years has occurred Down Under this morning in Australia. Mr Underwood, the Managing Director of oil minnow Empire who have acreage to the east of the Beetaloo, has taken the decision this morning to issue its own press release devoted almost solely to republishing last Friday's Falcon news release. It's either a prod to Origin or it's an indirect way of alerting the analysts in major firms like UBS down under that we may now be a little nearer making the Beetaloo a commercial find.

Good stuff Mr Newtofo. Very timely and very helpful indeed..

What we're all praying for is one out of three wells coming up trumps over the next 90 days. And if we get two.....well, that would be very nice......

I think management are trying to be as helpful as possible to the many long term investors who frequent this board. The two press releases in the last week are pointing to possible very, very good news in the not too distant future. The house broker Cenkos has also put supportive comments on their analyst portal.

Confirmation of what Management is expecting on either is clearly going to be a game changer for our minnow play as well as the whole of the Beetaloo Basin. Fingers therefore are firmly crossed. It's been a long wait. Upside from these levels is quite large.

If you combine the Cenkos update with the latest Empire press release on the LNG price outlook down under, one might even conclude FOG shares this morning are a good speculative buy for those not overweight in the stock.

Well said Messrs. Sneakysnake and Newtofo. Right on the button.

In the meantime it's increasingly clear that Origin is a wounded beast. It has cash flow difficulties in 2021, and an increasing need ton cut their links to coal...

SS that's how I read it too.

SS that's how I read it too.

Looking back over the past 12 months one cannot get away from the fact that despite all the hype (and oh gosh there's been a lotof it ) 'The Empire Strikes Back' share chart looks increasingly deflated, trading well-off its highs from last year and now increasingly stuck in a narrowing trade range. The latest company presentation put together by Mr Underwood and his team is rather tame compared to earlier ones. It says a lot about a well drilled in Fayetteville more than 10 years ago but the excitement has gone.....I can only think that those institutions that invest in other companies in the sector like Chevron in the past 12 months may be a little wiser than others that put all their money into minnows

Yes there's still a chance that Falcon shares might bounce back to levels last seen during 2016 by the end of next year but don't punt more into this play unless you are prepared to lose all of it. Moreover don't overlook the fact that the Bruner shares are still overhanging the market and there's a handful of punters on this board alone desperate for you to average down so they can trim their stakes.

I hope we'll have a happy ending and in the the meantime I'm going to administer self control and wait 21-24 months for an offer letter to come through the post.

All eyes now on the flotation of Tamboran Resources tomorrow on the ASX.

Instinctively Mr Gonoles that seems the right reaction but on the other hand it's far from certain we are going to receive any credible news before the second half of 2022 that the Beetaloo is going to be commercially developed.

Origin have been struggling since they lost the star(s) in their development team, and no doubt their corporate HQ are holding back progress this year not because the rainy season surprised them and finished early but because the company is struggling with lower than expected cash flows. Some in their team might even think it make strategic sense anyway to sit back and watch the progress of others better equipped in different parts of the Basin.

Its very frustrating.. Falcon's management is in a difficult position. I have no intention of selling. There's no reason either to buy. And I would be very wary indeed of persons who try and persuade us there's an opportunity to trade here in any meaningful amount on either side of the pond.

Exxon let us down. Hess did not impress either. Looking back over the 5 years or so Origin have fallen short in several ways on delivery

I think we could make up to 8X current levels in the next 2 years. then again we might lose the lot. It's too late to sell. Like others I'm still willing to wait this out. But don't expect me to offer a smile at the end of this post.

I think in the end Mr Newtofo might be quite pleased that he bought some more shares at 7.5 pence last week.

i think he's a clever chap. I believe his move was calculated and rather clever and replicates the move of many bankers who have gone such a big nap on the Aussie currency in recent weeks as the country's terms of trade have so sharply improved. What's more rising LNG prices out of Darwin have partly this triggered this rise....and hopefully this will prove to be another jigsaw piece that is falling nicely into place.

Rising prices, falling costs, stronger AUD -USD cross rate and support from the federal government......All we need now when the rains subside is the drilling programme news to improve.

I still appreciate the risks. But the confirmation that we have wet gas rather than dry gas in two of of our most promising areas continues to give me increasing confidence that if the geological challenges can be overcome the pay day will be well worth the wait.

I think in the end Mr Newtofo might be quite pleased that he bought some more shares at 7.5 pence last week.

i think he's a clever chap. I believe his move was calculated and rather clever and replicates the move of many bankers who have gone such a big nap on the Aussie currency in recent weeks as the country's terms of trade have so sharply improved. What's more rising LNG prices out of Darwin have partly this triggered this rise....and hopefully this will prove to be another jigsaw piece that is falling nicely into place.

Rising prices, falling costs, stronger AUD -USD cross rate and support from the federal government......All we need now when the rains subside is the drilling programme news to improve.

I still appreciate the risks. But the confirmation that we have wet gas rather than dry gas in two of of our most promising areas continues to give me increasing confidence that if the geological challenges can be overcome the pay day will be well worth the wait.

Just read Newtofo's learned scribe late yesterday. they're very wise words indeed. Some of you would clearly benefit reading them one or two more times again. The only things that I would add constructively is that POQ's hand will be helped too in the next 18-24 months by NRs from Santos, Empire et al re. more drilling in their adjacent properties, the US government will no longer be encouraging fossil fuel development in fact quite the contrary, and Canberra will be looking to rein back some of the red tape players like Origin too readily agreed with Darwin.

Not sure why but there seems to be somehow a bit of confusion over currencies. A UBS analyst Down Under putting a A$700 million valuation on Origin's controlling stake in the Beetaloo is roughly the equivalent of A$200 million for FOG. Since FOG has c. 1 billion shares in issue this mathematically converts to c. 11 pence per share or CAD 0.19, a bit higher than where we are now but not too much a discount.

Our shares, some would say are one third under-priced today but realistically we need to factor in that FOG shares for the time will continue to trade at a discount given the company's minority share in its Aussie project. Hopefully our outlook will improve significantly in the second half of this year. I'm happy to wait but others have to realise that the prospect of a multi bagger from current levels comes with a degree of risk.

Fracking successfully the Kyalla 117 is not as simple as everyone's kids or grandchildren reciting the A, B , C...It's complicated but the experts that Origin brought in were it seems confident enough last month to persuade our team leaders to let them return when the rains go away in the second quarter and finish off their work. From our perspective POQ fortunately bought himself enough extra time in the first quarter last year with the refinancing, to now take a wait and see approach until the middle of this year.

I'm also reading into recent speeches down under that the Federal Government is now putting right some of the silly things that Origin and others wrongly conceded to the Northern Territories in the last 2 years that have been hindering the Basin's exploration programmes and ultimately making it harder for analysts to conceive successful commercial development. Give them positive flow news over 60-90 days at the end of the 2Q and then and only then will there in reality be more interest...And when they do , may we live that long for that moment, analysts will ratchet up their probability figure on commercial development and whoopee the long wait might be worth it.

Until then we have to live with the flip side. No one is going to make us a suitable offer today and if our multi level fracking programmes are ultimately less proven, we'll find ourselves forced to accept a so called generous offer of USD 0.15 in 24-30 months time which in discount cash flow terms (and recognising too the other places we could put our money to work) is the equivalent of not receiving much more than the current share price.

I may seem a misery so and so. But I believe our Falcon glass is now half full, not half empty...!!