Member Info for BorntoBouggie

Down under UBS analysts in recent weeks have put pen to paper on the value to Origin of their play in the Beetaloo Basin, and comment as well on how much it might be worth if the next two wells go reasonably well. It's very obvious there's a message for falcon holders from all this and if X or y and/or a and b were to happen (e.g. a de-risking of the project) falcon holders could be looking at > CAD1.00 for FO.v and its equivalent in London some time in 2021.

Other good news in the well argued paper is if all goes reasonably well in this next phase Origin will be looking to farm-out part of its investment at the same time it wants to take us out (i.e. less conflict than many of you might think) and it's clear too how a loan consortium could come together down the line to put a lot of the infrastructure in place.

No one should tell you this is a slam dunk but at current levels the risk reward ratios are a lot more in punters' favour. Biggest macro concern still is the trade war. On the other hand any flare-up in the Strait of Hormuz or the Gulf of Aden would be a positive development.

very helpful VM and Wetwater. in essence the 90 minute session confirms that Origin are on course to spud one well next month and only in exceptional circumstances do the second immediately after before the wet season settles in.
I'm quite relaxed if the second well only spuds at the end of 1Q next year and if that's the case, all 4 wells might still be assessed by end 2020.
For falcon investors our long agony could then successfully come to an end during 2021. For many of us like myself we're not going to see the heady days of CAD6-7 per share but we can at least now start hatching a plan on how we are going to recover our positions.
The share overhang (going back to Petrohunter) is still with us a bit longer but any good news in the next 3 months ought to very quickly solve this issue. I have my fingers crossed too that news from Santos will boost sentiment.
Brokers in Australia are now running their slide rules over what Beetaloo is worth to Origin.
In some respects we've been lucky that NT held things up. The outlook in Oz has changed in recent times with a lot more visibility in the market of impending shortages on the east coast. What's more Origin can expect the Federal Government get behind the building of infrastructure to develop Beetaloo.