Hey Marsh, that may turn out to be the smart move. We will only get results from one well by January and if the Kyalla results are less than stellar you could buy back a portion for a lot lower than we are at today. Even though we know the mid-Velkerri is gas saturated - it won't stop the share price from plummeting if the Kyalla liquids don't flow at something close to commercial rates. Thought about selling half my shares a number of times since this whole fiasco with timelines and the lazy ass NT government has been dragging on, but know that I will spend the funds and not have anything left to pick up more in January. Keep some powder dry - as I still want to see you for the golf re-union in Dublin in two years time -- all going well that is......................................
Great find drprussky as this is probably a bigger step forward on the Beetaloo than it looks like on first pass. Currently, there is a small group of senior Origin personnel that works closely with Philip and our Aussie rep on Falcon JV issues, and there would be no reason for JV specialist to be hired at this point when all of the exploration JV directions have been negotiated. However, if Origin is looking to start dividing up the Beetaloo with many JV partners in the future - then this is a corporate position they will need to have in place within the next year as they plan forward for a 20 year time development program at the Beetaloo.
Orson, most likely that would be the Ensign 965 rig moving from Dukas to the Tanburanni site for Santos, but maybe we could get someone in Daly Waters to quietly change the "5" to a "3" and point out to the driver that the Ensign 963 rig is destined for Origin Kyalla site. Wouldn't that be a nice surprise --LOL.
schlemiel, not only an excellent find, but also a very significant statement on where the Beetaloo is heading. Here is the excerpt that I found very promising:
"Be a strategic contributor in a dynamic leadership team
Add value to assets moving through exciting exploration and appraisal campaigns
Brisbane-based PERMANENT opportunity".
The capital letters I put in -- as this is a clear statement by Origin that the Beetaloo is a no longer just a exploration program but rather Origin sees these new job openings as "PERMANENT" placements in their value added growth program. This job opening for a permanent position is just one part of a large team that will be place to develop the Beetaloo as per the second statement:
"targets onshore shale gas in Australia. As an asset team, the group is responsible for all elements that drive asset value and is made up of experts across subsurface, HSE, stakeholder, government, project, commercial, and communications disciplines".
Interesting note on the Santos approved EMP. Just going through their approved EMP on the NT website and Santos only has approval to drill the two wells in the McArthur basin and they will come back to the NT with a new EMP if they decide to frack. Origin's EMP was for only one well but included the fracking of that well -- so maybe that is why Origin has so many more bogus submissions from the lying anti-frackers that the Environment Minister will be addressing.
Here is the wording directly from Santos approved EMP:
"In a success case, following completion of the well drilling operations, the operator proposes to
conduct a program of hydraulic fracture stimulations and flow testing of the Velkerri Formation in the
Tanumbirini-1, Tanumbirini-2H and Inacumba-1H wells. It should be noted that these proposed
activities will be the subject of a separate Environmental Management Plan".
On a separate note, I believe that case filed by Blundy to prevent access by Origin for the civil works on the Velkerri liquids appraisal well has been thrown out by the Court -- so if Orson or anyone else can find that and post it -- that would be appreciated. It is also worth noting that Origin is calling the Kyalla and Velkerri liquids wells as "Appraisal Wells" in their own report to shareholders -- so that is generally a much more positive viewpoint than an exploration well.
It seems like no one in the Northern Territory is in any hurry to see if the Beetaloo has enough shale gas in place to change the dismal direction of significant job and income losses across the entire Territory. It will be too late to frack even one well fairly soon -- so it is worth reminding anyone that is looking to buy -- that you can "always always buy Falcon cheaper." If there is no drilling this year -- we will be hitting new all time lows before the year is out, and that is with one of the largest shale gas deposits in the world sitting in the mid-Velkerri B shale -- fffing ridiculous!
Well said ITguy -- as kmjliveson's post was excellent. As far as nami is concerned -- I have him on ignore which anyone can do by clicking on the Filters button right beside Regular Share Chat and Premium Share Chat -- then enter the handle of the person you want to ignore and their posts don't come up again unless you change the Filters. I used to Bigones and Poods on ignore but have taken them off now that they are posting useful comments going forward.
If the new "solyomtwo" is the same Soly from the Agoracom Falcon board (which is looks like with another of his stupid backroom boys comments) then he will be on ignore soon as well. Soly has his own special board where he can rant about backroom boys crap all he wants -- so hopefully he stays away from an intelligent board like this one.................
Scargs, The EMP for the Civil Permit was approved back on June 6th, and as far as we know the civil work for building an access road and drilling pad is most likely complete or close to. What has not been approved as yet is the EMP for the Drilling Permit and that is one that Origin needs in order to spud the first well. The drilling EMP was submitted back in late May I believe and the 28 day public comment period has long since passed, but the idiots in Darwin are still dragging their feet on both the Origin and Santos final EMP for drilling. Origin will need to start the process soon for the second well and the idiots haven't even approved the first one yet................................
schlemiel, the Santos well will be very close to the Falcon permit and is completely in the same geological formation as the Amungee horizontal well - and therefore any success by Santos will improve the overall picture for Origin on our side of the border between the two permits. The analyst from UBS said in best in the following excerpt from his report back in May:
"We consider that it will only take one well from either the Origin or Santos-
operated (ASX: STO) acreage to achieve our gas flow threshold (as success can be
replicated across the basin) to 'prove concept' and confirm our expectation that a
large scale development is commercially viable".
Thanks Phil, always nice to have someone on the board that adds value and great insight to the board on a regular basis. You must have been a university professor or a seriously talented investment advisor to have all these useful comments right at the tip of your fingertips - that everyone so looks forward to reading. Keep up the good work.........................
I won't say thanks for finding this Santos update schemiel -- but still great digging as usual. This pretty much confirms that the NT government is going to drag their feet long enough that the best we can hope for is one single well being fracked in 2019. Santos has indicated that they "might" get the go ahead in the third quarter from the asshoxes in Darwin -- and that means no drilling till August "at the very earliest" and only one well for Santos.
This entire process is turning into a complete fiasco with the NT government touting the Territory as the next great gas commercialisation opportunity while screwing up the entire exploration program completely -- what at fucxxing joke the entire inquiry and legislated delay this has been. Time to remember my permanent adage with this stock -- you can always always always buy it cheaper!
Whatever this NT Environment Minister, Eva Lawler, is doing by way of dragging her feet on approving the EMP's -- it appears that it is not just Origin specific. Santos, who filed their main EMP for drilling before Origin's EMP drilling application, has not been approved either at this point in time.
If the delay is not Origin specific, which seems to be the case, then approvals for both should be forthcoming -- as Gunner will be seriously risking re-election if both Santos and Origin are delayed another year. Matt Canavan and the Feds will start cutting funding again, and the so-called NT gas chemicals initiative will be dead in the water as any faith that Gunner can get things done in the NT will be gone and industrial conglomerates will look elsewhere.........................
RichGreenwood, you can try clicking on this link to see if the full UBS report will come up, but have found in the past that they won't upload for some reason. The parts that apply to Beetaloo -- I have copied and pasted already with the rest of the report dealing with Origin's other business interests.
ITguy, the $1.60 increase in Origin's share price for their portion of the Beetaloo is in Aussie dollars. Where Falcon will see a significant increase in our 30% of the Beetaloo when sold -- will be from a gas major looking at the massive increase in proven reserves that 30% of the Beetaloo will give them. If you look closely at analyst's ratings for oil and gas majors -- the higher the reserves they have in the ground the higher the valuation metrics -- and that is where Falcon's price will show the biggest appreciation.
Drilling to commence this month
With the drill rig currently finishing pre-commissioning in Perth, we expect drilling
to resume in the last week of July. If this milestone is missed and drilling
commences in August, we see greater risk that the second well in the pilot
program may not be fracked in time before the wet season rains arrive from
approximately late October.
Our focus remains on the commercial flow rate that can be achieved from Origin's
2019 drilling campaign (and that achieved in Santos' adjacent acreage). We
maintain that a flow rate of 3mmscf/d or greater (based on a 1000m lateral well
length) within either Origin or Santos' pilots will prove concept and achieving a
condensate yield of 3% would support our un-risked valuation.
We currently value Origin's share of the Beetaloo at $1.4b ($0.78/sh) on a 50% on a risked basis.
Beetaloo on track despite a recent land access challenge
Following failed negotiations with a pastoral lease holder within Origin's Beetaloo
permits, commercial arbitration was initiated and determined in favour of Origin. Now
the lease holder has applied to the Supreme Court seeking injunctive relief against
Origin accessing its property. We have assumed the dispute will not materially delay
drilling (as we have assumed the issue will be resolved commercially). Nonetheless we
would like to see Origin build social license with pastoralists in the area. We anticipate
drilling to commence in the last week of July—any later raises risks that the second
pilot well might not be fracked before the wet season rain arrives in late October. We
maintain that the Beetaloo resource offers a near-term catalyst for asymmetric upside.
Q: How much value could be unlocked from Beetaloo over the next 2 years?
We estimate up to $1.60/sh. At the current price Origin's Beetaloo asset offers an inexpensive option
on a potential world-class resource.
This updated report as of July 5th by UBS on Origin helps to clarify at least some of the delays currently. This UBS update notes that the Ensign Rig is currently in pre-commissioning in Perth -- so the NT Governmental delays on approving the final EMP haven't affected the start date as yet, but could if not issued before the last week of this month. It was also encouraging to read that Origin had won the arbitration on access to the Amungee Mungee with an independent arbitrator.
Beetaloo on track despite recent land access challenge:
Land access challenge filed with the Supreme Court
Origin remains on track to drill the two pilot exploration and appraisal wells
planned in the Beetaloo Basin this month. This is despite a recent challenge from a
pastoral lease holder within Origin's Beetloo permits seeking an injunction (in the
Supreme Court of QLD) to prohibit Origin from accessing its property.
We are not aware of any legislative requirement in the Northern Territory (NT)
requiring Origin obtain land access agreements with lease holders in order to enter
properties and commence drilling—although we recognise that historically it is
Origin's practice to do so. Origin does require the NT Government approve its
Environmental Management Plan to commence drilling. We assume the NT
Government will not object given the depth of engagement on these requirements
between industry and Government since the moratorium was withdrawn in
Origin has been progressing land access discussions with pastoral lease holders
within its Beetaloo permits since the moratorium was withdrawn. In the case of
the lease holder of Amungee Mungee Station (the land on which Origin drilled its
successful Amungee well' in 2016), Origin has failed to secure a new access
agreements since that it had in place with the same lease holder in 2016. This
year, Origin participated in a 4 month commercial arbitration process with the
lease holder. That process concluded with the independent arbitrator making a
non-binding determination in favour of Origin. And now following that outcome,
the lease holder has applied to the Supreme Court seeking relief from Origin
accessing its land.
Origin requires access to two different pastoral leases within its permits to
recommence drilling. The first well it plans to drill is at a location suitable for
drilling into the Kyalla shale—the target most prospective for liquids and/or
retrograde condensate. This site is not on Amungee Mungee Station. However the
second target well of this drilling campaign (the Velkerri shale liquids target) is on
that particular pastoral lease. Aside from the lease holder physically locking the
gates to the property, we still expect Origin to drill the second well this year also.
While the litigation from the pastoral lease holder of Amungee Mungee Station
indicates that Origin still has some way to go to earn social license to drill in the
Beetaloo, we assume this challenge will be settled commercially. The leaseholders
have strong incentives to negotiate attractive commercial outcomes for land
access. We understand that the details of the Supreme Court challenge seeking to
prohibit Origin's access is based on claims that Origin failed to provide sufficient
consultation relating to civil works, rather than a 'philosophical objection to
fracture stimulation' .
dprussky, volume is up on the TSX as well, but with both the US, and TSX exchanges now trading at multi year lows -- I don't think this higher volume is a good sign. There has been a bidder for a couple hundred thousand on the TSX for weeks now at 21 cents and that got blown out today -- so even if we get some decent news out of all the tight lipped players and government agencies on drilling -- it won't help this stock to even get back to where it was two months ago -- fuxxing ridiculous!!!
Thanks dprussky -- as this road show in Alice Springs today and Tennant Creek in three days time should have comments by Origin about when the actual start of drilling will take place. My only concern here is the timing -- as these kinds of meetings should have taken place weeks ago -- if the contractors attending are going to be bidding on work for this month. It is looking more and more like no one is in any hurry except us????