Gordon Stein, CFO of CleanTech Lithium, explains why CTL acquired the 23 Laguna Verde licenses. Watch the video here.
Great post Stebol and accurate about what we need to see fairly soon by way of at least one good well out of 9 -- sheesh!!
Northern wrote: "What (are) the implications of Falcon hitting the completion of the Farm-out carry. Does that mean they cannot participate in future drilling"?
Not at all Northern!!
The original $349 million in Aussie dollars spent to date by Origin and now Tamboran -- from the previous original deals with Origin (including the added $$ commitments after Falcon gave up 7.5%) -- has now been all spent. Therfore, Tamboran has secured their 38.5% of the three Falcon permits.
Going forward -- Falcon will of course continue as a 22.5% partner in the completion of the Shenandoah well -- which will most likely draw down a few $million from the current $15 million in US funds that is in Falcon's bank account. Even though Falcon has an opt-in or opt-out option on future 6400 acre drilling blocks -- I am almost 100% sure that Falcon will participate in the next Amungee H3 well that will start drilling as soon as the H&P rig is able to move from the Shenandoah site back up to the Amungee location.
Falcon's share of what may be a 3km horizontal at the Amungee site, or possibly at the step out location 10 km up the Carpenteria Hwy, could be in the range of $14 million in Aussie dollars. However, that amount will get reduced by POQ's recent negotiations that requires Tamboran to cover the first $6.75 million (n Aussie dollars of) of Falcon's share of the next well to be drilled in 2023 (and the same amount for the first well drilled in 2024)
Therefore, out of the current approximately $22 million in Aussie dollars in Falcon's bank account ($15 million US) -- Falcon might only have to contribute $7 million in Aussie dollars to participate in each of the next two wells that are drilled -- with more than enough funds in Falcon's bank account to cover both. Falcon will definitely be participating in at least the next two wells due to this extra contribution of $6.75 million by Tamboran to Falcon's side of the ledger.
JamesL -- probably a good time to top up -- as I think the Shenandoah well will be our lucky #9!!!
There is, of course, still some risk with this new well -- as we are all aware of just how many mistakes have been made over the years -- even when all indications were for commercial flows. On an interesting comparison note -- Tambo was trading at 20 cents Aussie when the disastrous Amungee H2 news was released, and Falcon was at 18 cents CDN. Falcon fell to 11 cents on that news and Tambo only dropped down to 18 cents. That mismatch appears to be rectified with Tambo now down to 13 cents Aussie and Falcon holding around 11 cents Cdn, but it would have been a lot more gratifying if Falcon had of moved up instead of Tambo down.
Longknife wrote: "analyzing POQs performance. I am simply pointing out that someone else might've been able to do better".
Longknife -- your comments are somewhat valid, but the chances of anyone else doing better than POQ were very slim to nonexistent from everything single inflection point that I have watched very carefully this past decade. However, -- there was a much greater chance that someone else would have made a just one wrong decision at any one of those many inflection points over the past ten years and buried Falcon along the way (as Bruner was working very aggressively towards).
I honestly don't believe that Falcon would either still have anything close to 22.5% of the Beetaloo, or alternatively would have more than 2 billion shares outstanding (like Tamboran will have by early 2024) if anyone else was Falcon's CEO.
A couple of critical points that are worth taking into account when anyone is looking at POQ's track record of managing Falcon over the past very frustrating 10 plus years.
Falcon would NOT be in existence anymore if POQ had not completed all the critical re-negotiations -- starting with forcing Hess out completely (with Hess's original 5 well program) and replacing that with Origin and Sasol's 9 well program. Falcon would have gone bankrupt years ago if POQ hadn't renegotiated the Origin agreement getting Origin to commit to an extra $150 million -- part of which added funding is now on Tamboran's shoulders.
Then to keep Falcon from getting totally shuffled to the sidelines -- POQ held up the Tamboran/Origin agreement until he had secured an additional $6 million on each of the next two wells (after Shenandoah) that comes out of Tamboran's pocket and not Falcon's pocket. POQ also negotiated a very key addition that lets Falcon opt in or opt out of any 6400 acre drilling block which will prevent any attempts by Tamboran to force Falcon out of the Beetaloo down the line.
While the current share price and recent disaster with the Amungee H2 well results are disappointing -- it is worth remembering that POQ is not in control of the day to day decisions taking place by Riddle. POQ has kept Falcon solidly in a very strong financial position -- (even with Riddle completely wasting Falcon's 8th free carry well) to the point that Falcon has enough money in the bank to cover both the Shenandoah and the Amungee H3 well going forward.
Hey Wet, I think this August 1st press release from Philip is most likely the correct differential between the Amungee H2 and the Shenandoah well. Fingers are crossed that someone is sitting on Riddles neck (maybe not the choke hold just yet) so he keeps his hands off the completion and that the extra 700 meters in depth gives us higher pressures and hopefully a nice commercial flow rate to celebrate.
The SS1H well, which will include a horizontal section of approximately 1,000 meters, will target the Amungee Member B-shale at an estimated target depth of 3,200 metres (approximately 700 metres deeper than the Amungee NW-2H (“A2H”) well in EP 98).
After Origin had to abandon the very first go at the Amungee H1 with only 700 meters on the horizontal section completed, they moved the rig over 50 feet to drill the Second Amungee H1 in another direction; and after the Mid-Kyalla liquids gas disaster that flowed barely enough gas to keep Daly Waters running; and after the total failure of the Amungee H2 -- with it's bullshix skin issue -- we really are due for just one well out of ten to flow commercially.
Great point Beetaloo -- as Joel Riddle is out doing Bruner for promotion.
You can hardly believe that his last well flowed under a measly one million cu. ft per day -- as he has now (without any commercial gas flows from the Beetaloo) committed Tamboran to cover the trillions of cu ft of gas he has promised to both the East Coast market, (with the a non-existent APA pipeline) and up to his 15 to 20 billion dollar LNG plant at the Middle Arm -- that is currently a pile of dirt. Truly makes Bruner look like a punter -- LOL.
Tamboran Resources Ltd (TBN) :
SIGNS FOUR LOI'S FOR 510 - 750 TJ PER DAY WITH POTENTIAL EAST COAST GAS BUYERS
HAS SIGNED FOUR SEPARATE NON-BINDING LETTERS OF INTENT WITH ORIGIN, AGL, ENERGYAUSTRALIA AND SHELL ENERGY AUSTRALIA
WILL SEPARATELY WORK WITH PARTIES TOWARD EXECUTING SEPARATE BINDING FULLY TERMED GAS SALES AGREEMENTS
FIRST GAS IS TARGETED TO COMMENCE IN 2028, SUBJECT TO COMMERCIAL FLOW RATES FROM TAMBORAN'S BEETALOO BASIN ASSETS
SEPARATE BINDING FULLY TERMED GAS SALES AGREEMENTS FOR PURCHASE PRICE, TRANSPORT ARRANGEMENTS AND OTHER KEY COMMERCIAL TERMS
LOI'S TO POTENTIALLY PURCHASE AGGREGATE 510-750 TJ PER DAY OF GAS FROM CO'S CO2 BEETALOO BASIN ASSETS FOR UP TO 10 - 15 YRS
Stebol, I am fairly sure that smallfish's little satellite picture on the HotCopper board is showing the old Kyalla (new Shenandoah) well site and not the Amungee H2 well site -- so not sure what well pad smallfish's comments are referring to -- but his comments appear to be about the Amungee H2 well pad??
If you compare Derrick's Sentinel satellite shot below -- with that tiny picture that smallfish has posted to the HotCopper board -- they appear to show the exact same well pad, and I am fairly sure that Derrrick's link is the old Kyalla pad.
Hey Marsh -- I am pretty sure that your 9 cent Cdn target will be available in the next month or two, and possibly even a new all time low below 8 cents for Falcon before we get any positive news or maybe some actual promotional tours??
Traded down to 10 cents on the TSX today with very few bidders and lots of sellers -- so the old adage will certainly apply for a long time -- darnit. Any chance you might want my 20 cent average shares on a private sale -- LOL.
Hardrock and BtoB -- good comments and really hoping someone can post Brian Sheffield's speech to the Energy Club on July 31st.
This presentation by BS might shed some light on the Riddle disaster with the Amungee H2 well -- and how the next two wells will "incorporate lessons learned" from Riddle's incompetence at Amungee H2 well. Here is what the Tamboran press release states regarding the next two wells -- without blaming Riddle directly (which they should have).
"On completion of SS1H, the joint venture plans to drill the A3H well to follow up results from the A2H
location. Tamboran will incorporate lessons learned from the drilling and stimulation program at A2H across
both SS1H and A3H wells".
Hey Marsh -- your timing could be really good in the next few months as my old adage is back in full force -- LOL.
Falcon's bid on the TSX is now 10 cents Cdn -- which is more than 40% off the recent high of 18 cents Cdn when we were expecting at least something close to commercial flows out of the $40 million spent on Amungee H2. Without any real news (except spudding) or promotions expected from Falcon for many months -- we could easily slip back to the old lows of 8 cents Cdn -- (or even lower if any of our really large Falcon owners finally say enough is enough and sell millions of shares into the TSX market that currently has very few bids).
Thanks Hardrock, as Riddle must be getting close to 1 TCF of hot air all by himself. Nice to see the total level of recoverable gas seems to be getting higher, but without commercial flows as yet.
I know you can't divulge any confidences from friends and industry associates, which are totally understandable!!
However, I know there are many on this Falcon Board that would really appreciate hearing your gut level instincts, (as someone who has worked in the fracking industry in Australia), as to whether Falcon is going to see commercial flows in the next year, and whether you see Falcon as a strong buy at these levels??
Falcon is certainly still a risk investment, without any commercial flows at this point in time, but I know many here would like to hear your thoughts and whether you are a Falcon owner and maybe still a buyer at these levels??
You most likely don't want to hand out investment advice to others on this Board, but for most of us longer term holders -- we have as many Falcon shares as can be risked already, so we are not worried about getting advice from you, but rather your thoughts on the Beetaloo Basin along with how prolific the Velkerri B and C shale zones may be??
Thanks everyone -- as switching from Google Chrome to Bing seems to have worked as well. The last time this happened -- the techies at LSE finally got a fix for Google Chrome, but it took them a week to get that fix in place. I am sure there are a number of posters and readers here that would be happier without all my many useless posts showing up, but as my son tells me regularly -- "what would keep me entertained without Falcon or golf" -- LOL.
Thanks Hardrock for posting the note about Brian Sheffield doing a solo presentation in Darwin to the Energy Club at the end of this month. This is kind of interesting due to the fact that Riddle isn't part of this Energy Club meeting -- which should have all the key Beetaloo dignitaries from the government and the affected business community in attendance.
Maybe this is a hopeful (that favorite Falcon word again) indication that BS will be taking a much larger hand in directing the drilling and completion process away from Riddle -- so we don't get another $40 million thrown down the proverbial drain again???
Thanks Poods, some very valid points and the Sheffields are definitely a huge asset in this endeavor.
My point, and what I believe WW was alluding to as well, is more about Falcon being recognized as undervalued in the same investment circles that are pouring investment funds into Tamboran. Right now Falcon is trading at 12 cents CDN and if we get commercial flows at some point in early 2024 on this new Shenandoah well -- Falcon should double in price to a pathetic 24 cents.
However, if POQ was out doing more promoting of Falcon to some of the same Teachers or other investment funds -- Falcon could still be trading close to 18 cents and a double on commercial flows would move Falcon's share price closer to 35 cents. Unlike yourself and a number of others -- I need to sell a small portion of my holdings before year end -- and 35 cents Cdn would go a lot further than 24 cents Cdn at that point.
As WW has often stated -- the real win will come when POQ sells off the 22.5% interest, but that is years away. In the interim it would be nice if Falcon got some respect for being a better investment currently than Tamboran to my way of looking at both companies.
On a separate note -- does anyone know if the original water bore monitoring at the five year old Kyalla well pad will be all that is needed for this new Shenandoah well to be drilled off that same Kyalla well pad?? I am really hoping (usual Falcon ownership of wait and hope -- sheesh) that Tamboran doesn't have to do another six months of water bore hole monitoring at the Kyalla pad before any horizontal fracking can begin??
Great Post WW and really hoping to hear any kind of news on the promo front for Falcon going forward.
There is certainly less that POQ can do compared to Riddle's non-stop hype -- as Falcon has very little direct control now that Tamboran is the operating partner with Falcon primarily along for the ride. That being said -- it is kind of ridiculous that Falcon is trading down 33% versus only 10% for Tamboran -- when all the metric comparisons are stronger in Falcon's favour as I mentioned in my earlier post.
You would think that if those more favourable metrics were being promoted to American interests (like the Teacher's Annuity Fund buying 124 million Tamboran shares in the USA) -- they would be Falcon buyers and not falling for the Riddle overpromising and under delivering???
The other bonus (if some promo presentations can move the share price back up a little --besides having to stay away from sharp objects) -- would be a much higher Falcon stock price move upwards, when we do get commercial flows, and less dilution when POQ has to go to the market for the follow up wells.
When reviewing the Tamboran posts to the HotCopper chat board -- there appears to be increasing belief in the eventual commercialization of the Beetaloo Basin.
A review of the past dozen updates regarding Tamboran's latest funding raise on the HotCopper chat board -- shows that new buyers (like the Teachers Insurance and Annuity Association of America) of Tamboran with 124 million shares, along with a few others, have become believers in commercialization coming soon (or have been conned by Riddle -- LOL).
https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/ann-becoming-a-substantial-holder.7471825/?post_id=68711428
From my perspective -- I am still firmly in the Falcon camp versus holding Tambo shares. Even though Falcon is still trading down 33% on the TSX versus Tamboran's minor drop of 10% (since the dismal failure of the Amungee H2 well) -- I believe Falcon's eventual upside is much greater due to better capital controls, much lower stock dilution, and only one third the total ORRI's outstanding.
A very interesting comment by Riddle in this interview.
Riddle states: "And so this is a very normal thing that you see, particularly in early-stage shale development, where you could have an incompatibility between the fluid system that was used for the completion potentially being incompatible with the rock".
You have to wonder -- if it is such a COMMON thing to have incompatibility with the frack fluid additives and the rock face -- WHY didn't Riddle use the some of the coring rock to test that incompatibility BEFORE he injected all the additional gels (that were added to increase the amount of sand that the frack fluid could carry)???
Less than a month ago -- we were all looking at a worse case scenario on the Amungee H2 that was going to be at least 3 mm flow rates versus Riddle's promises of 5 mm per day. There was very little speculation that the Amungee H2 would be a complete failure, (after the retest on the Amungee H1 of 5 mm), but rather how high or low would the commercial flow rates be.
What is most disappointing with that fail -- is we are now moving over to another zone that had it's own expensive failure -- to see if Tamboran can drill and complete just one commercial well to kick start the pilot production plan. However, we have now moved away from what was looking like at least a high probability of success -- to what now appears to be a much riskier gamble on new area that has failed once already. On top of all the higher risk we are facing -- we may also be looking at early 2024 before we see any flow rates at all if the Hamman Report on Tamboran is accurate.
Falcon's share price on the TSX and LSE is only just beginning to show this much higher risk and longer lead time for any results -- which brings my old adage right back into play again -- sheesh.
Hey Wet -- one of the downsides from being in Falcon for so darn long -- is most of that early Shenandoah crap is in my own links collection -- LOL.
You might be right about road access -- since the first Shenandoah 1A well was at 15 years ago, but I bet the well pad itself is almost intact. Maybe one of our satellite specialists could take a look for the Shenandoah 1A pad and road access??
Hey Wet, I was wondering about that comment by Riddle too, but would think you are correct that 2024 would be the earliest -- "IF" the Amungee H3 doesn't get replaced with this newest speculative well?? There is some reasonable log data available to Tamboran from the very first Falcon/Sweetpea well drilled at the original Shenandoah 1A location that could make this a better second well than another Amungee H3 possibly??
I was wondering where Riddle would have found any data to back up his estimates for 17 TCF in this area between the Amungee and the old Kyalla well pad?? (which is where the new Shenandoah well will be drilled -- hopefully sooner than later).
I am fairly sure that when this Hannam report mentions this speculative SNV1 well that they are talking about Sweetpea's original Shenandoah 1A well site -- which is in the middle between the Amungee and Kyalla locations. The map, (on the first page of the ProActive -- first attachment below), shows the original Shenandoah 1A well location and it appears to show the Velkerri shale zones are deeper like they are at the Kyalla location. There would also be the added benefit of the original Sweetpea well pad along with the original road access -- which should save both time and money if that well goes ahead in 2024.
The original Sweetpea/Falcon (Bruner timeline) vertical well had some initial gas flows from the Velkerri A, and B shales that were significant. Attached below are some links on that Sweetpea/Falcon original well -- that someone smarter than I might be able to decipher as to those actual vertical gas flows -- LOL.
https://www.proactiveinvestors.com/companies/news/997893/tamboran-resources-spuds-amungee-2h-development-well-in-beetaloo-basin-997893.html
https://geoscience.nt.gov.au/gemis/ntgsjspui/handle/1/79502
The last below is a much more detailed AAPG report done for Sweetpea's parent company Petrohunter showing the data from intersecting both the lower Kyalla wet gas zone along with the Mid-Velkerri gas shale play showing the A and B Verlkerri shales having over 150 meter thickness from the 2400 to 2558 meter depth.
https://www.searchanddiscovery.com/pdfz/documents/2011/10295silverman/ndx_silverman.pdf.html