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The licence issue is weighing heavy here but governments have their timeline and I feel it's when not if, what can't go unappreciated is 18 months or so ago when the management team spent their time and cash on infrastructure building roads and water disposal for higher production how the company are reaping the rewards today of that investment when oil prices were subdued and now they are at highs, the cash build will be substantial as every month passes, great management team.

Fair commentary from WOracle the weather prevented access to the ore body so the company supplemented with low grade stockpiled ore throughput was lower than last year the the results speak for themselves, going forwards the higher grade ore will be accessible again and throughput will increase as the plant has shown impeccable behaviour over recent years, recovery in grades and production is expected going forwards, the copper price will hopefully stay at elevated levels.

Tharisa's H1 FY26 interim report represents a comprehensive derisking of every major uncertainty that has suppressed the valuation, delivered into an exceptionally strong commodity environment. The financials are transformational — HEPS up 472%, EBITDA doubled to $104.3m, operating cash flow of $96.4m, gross profit margin on PGMs expanding from 6.2% to 36.6% as rhodium, platinum and palladium repriced simultaneously — with the entire uplift flowing through on a cost base that rose only 4%, confirming the operating leverage thesis in its purest form. The underground transition is not merely funded in principle but executed — $80m term loan and ZAR900m revolving credit facility in place, fleet finance imminent, development running at 134% of plan — eliminating both balance sheet and execution risk simultaneously. On Karo, the language has shifted categorically from negotiation to ministerial finalisation of the fiscal stability agreement, with the financing package advancing in parallel and committed capex deliberately reduced from $55.2m to $27.7m, signalling disciplined capital preservation ahead of an imminent acceleration once the framework is signed. The specialty chrome grade reduction from 104kt to 74.5kt alongside metallurgical grade growth warrants watching as a potential signal of material redirection toward battery feedstock. Redox One is named explicitly in the risk register as a strategic diversification tool — the clearest statement of management intent in the document — while the MWh-class battery acceptance testing confirmation sits quietly in the strategic bullets, timed ahead of the Times Energy Storage commercial formalisation. The risk register candidly flags South Africa's strategic fuel reserves at just 25 days against a 90-day mandate, with Hormuz explicitly cited, which is an unusual degree of transparency about physical vulnerability. The CFO departure in his final report is the one monitoring point. Everything else points in the same direction — the catalysts have converged, the risks have been systematically retired, and the market has not noticed.

This is brilliant news, they received bids but they all undervalued the business so they have decided to go it alone the new facilities they have negotiated have given them the fire power to finance new wells.

The drilling is carried this is huge.

The Pacassa SW well and the second well are fully carried, Afrenta pays nothing but gets the upside.

Pacassa SW results expected June 2026, production rises, reserves rise, NAV jumps funding costs fall, hopefully the share price will re rate it's all down to the drill bit now.

Hi Mike, I think this really is massive and very under reported, the best information seems to be via linkedin on the Redox One company site rather than Tharisa, the tie up with China means they can manufacture at scale with Tharisa as the preferred supplier.

Times Energy Storage brings cell manufacturing, membrane technology, and Chinese market access. Tharisa/ARXO bring the one input that Chinese battery manufacturers cannot easily source domestically at scale high-quality chrome electrolyte feedstock from a captive, vertically integrated mine.

Karo combined with Redox One are very real transformative projects both imo not currently valued by the market never mind when the market sees our upcoming results.

We are valued as a company with the pgm prices of 12 months ago and a growth project requiring funding to complete not one that if it chose could go it alone.

PetroTal – Where They Stand Today (May 2026)

1. Production is Stable and Better Than Expected

- Holding ~15,000 bopd with only a very small QoQ decline.

- This stability is not luck — it reflects successful water‑handling upgrades and pump optimisation already completed.

- They’ve effectively stopped the natural decline curve without drilling new wells.

Interpretation:

They’ve done enough behind the scenes to keep the field performing smoothly.

2. Water Injection Capacity Has Improved

- The company has already executed stimulation and infrastructure work to increase water disposal.

- This allows existing wells to flow at higher rates without backing up.

- It’s visible in the numbers: sales and uptime are ahead of internal expectations.

Interpretation:

The bottleneck is easing, and the field is operating more efficiently than the market realises.

3. Financial Performance Is Strong

- Cash: $128M total, $104M unrestricted.

- EBITDA up 90% QoQ.

- Free funds flow surged thanks to stable production and strong pricing.

Interpretation:

They’re quietly printing cash even before growth drilling resumes.

4. Drilling Restart Is Locked In

- Contract signed with a new drilling provider.

- Rig mobilisation underway.

- Development drilling restarts October 2026.

Interpretation:

The growth phase is scheduled and de‑risked — it’s now a timing issue, not an uncertainty.

5. Growth Requires new disposal wells

- The water‑handling improvements maintain production.

- Real growth back toward 20–25k bopd requires new horizontals.

- That’s exactly what the October restart is for.

Interpretation:

They’ve stabilised the base; the next leg up comes with the drill bit.

Overall Summary

PetroTal is in a quietly strong position

- Production stable

- Bottlenecks easing

- Cash building

- Drilling restart secured

- Execution solid and understated

They are progressing nicely, understated, and over‑delivering relative to what the market expected after last year’s operational constraints

I have been following the progress of Redox One for some time and the progress and achievements are gathering at pace below is a summary of the current status

Redox One — Status Summary, May 2026

What has just been achieved

Acceptance testing on the first MWh-class, high-voltage iron-chromium flow battery system has been completed successfully. This is a full end-to-end integrated system — stack, electrolyte, controls, power conversion — tested under real conditions, not a lab prototype. This is the critical proof-of-concept gate that needed to be passed before the project could be taken seriously at commercial scale.

What happens next

Physical deployment this summer at an African customer site connected to solar PV — almost certainly Tharisa Mine itself as the first reference installation, which has been the stated plan throughout.

The Chinese dimension

The Times Energy Storage partnership (announced April 2) provides the manufacturing scale pathway. References "our partners in China" as integral to achieving the acceptance testing milestone — so this isn't a future aspiration, they were already embedded in delivering the current result.

Where the gaps remain

No formal RNS from Tharisa yet. The market has not been told. This is still at the LinkedIn announcement stage, which means the valuation uplift hasn't happened.

That is a huge achievement and engineering masterclass required to get that pipeline below the the river, this has been a massive obstacle for quite some time, the original contractor relieved of their duties after failing to progress before the Chinese came on board to finish the job off.

Arrow Exploration, Results & Current Position

Today's annual filing covers FY2025 and should be read as a rear-view mirror. The current picture is materially better, the 2025 baseline is already outdated.

4,012 boe/d average production, up 13% year on year

$70.5m net revenue, $35m EBITDA

Zero debt, $11m cash, fully funded 2026 programme

14 development wells drilled, all successful

Mateguafa Attic exploratory well successful, followed by three development wells including first horizontal (M-HZ12)

Where we actually are today:

Production already through 5,000 boe/d and increasing, cash level $13m+

M-HZ12 horizontal on production and cleaning up

Rig now mobilising to Icaco-1 exploration well

Brent at $100 for this review is 25-30% above the average price that generated 2025's numbers

COR-39 contract terminated, releasing $12m commitment — capital discipline

The valuation case:

At 5,000+ boe/d and $100 Brent, annualised net revenue is in the $130-140m range. Market cap approximately £55m. This is a zero-debt, growing, operationally excellent company with a 97.5% historical drill success rate trading at well under 1x forward EV/EBITDA.

What $100 Brent means in context: the 2025 EBITDA of $35m was generated at materially lower average prices with lower production. At current production and $100 Brent the forward EBITDA is likely in the $50-60m range. The market is still pricing 2025 reality into a fundamentally different 2026 operational and price environment.

Icaco remains pure upside not in the price. A successful exploration result from an operator with Arrow's track record, in a proven basin, at $100 Brent adds production value that should be transformative relative to the current market cap.

One risk Tapir block contract extension. Management describe dialogue as "very constructive" and remain "very confident"this is measured language from a team that doesn't oversell. Extension is high probability but is the item to watch.

The annual report confirms what matters operational competence, zero debt, balance sheet integrity, and a repeatable drill success culture. The investment case is about where Arrow is going, not where it has been.

PetroTal delivered a steady and predictable quarter, with production averaging 14,907 bopd, down only 2% quarter‑on‑quarter and broadly in line with internal expectations. Bretana remains constrained by water‑handling limits, but there were no operational surprises and no deterioration in field performance.

The company ended the quarter with $128.1 million in total cash (of which $104.2 million was unrestricted), a small reduction from year‑end driven mainly by normal working‑capital movements — receivables rising and payables falling. Oil prices were supportive, with March sales averaging around $90/bbl, helping maintain strong underlying cash flow.

PetroTal is in the final stages of securing a drilling contractor, with rig mobilisation expected in the coming months and drilling scheduled to resume by October. Tubing replacements on three horizontal wells may be completed in Q2 ahead of the rig’s arrival.

Hedging remains in place for 0.9 million barrels through 2026, with costless collars providing downside protection but limiting upside; the current mark‑to‑market is –$8.6 million, reflecting strong oil prices.

Overall: a solid, stable quarter with no negative surprises. The key catalyst ahead is the restart of drilling, which will determine the next phase of production growth.

Atalaya’s Q1 results show a weather‑impacted operational quarter, with heavy rainfall reducing pit access, lowering grades and pushing copper production down. The use of low‑grade stockpiles is visible in the numbers, and the drop in both copper and silver output reflects that. Even though silver wasn’t highlighted in the commentary, the reduction in silver ounces is clearly visible in the data and forms part of the overall production impact.

Despite the weaker operational metrics, the underlying business remains solid: recoveries held up well, plant throughput was stable, and the issues are temporary rather than structural. The strong realised copper price helped cushion the quarter, and silver — although lower in volume — still contributed positively given current pricing.

The standout feature of the update is the dramatically strengthened balance sheet, with cash rising to €279m and net cash to €266m following the oversubscribed equity raise. This gives Atalaya significant flexibility to continue advancing its growth pipeline across the Riotinto district, the polymetallic circuit, Masa Valverde, and the now‑de‑risked Touro project.

Overall, this is a quarter where short‑term production softness contrasts with long‑term strategic strength. The operational dip is weather‑related and recoverable, while the financial position and project pipeline leave the company well‑positioned for future copper growth.

Tharisa has delivered a superb operational and pricing quarter, with strong performance across all core metrics while continuing to invest in its two major growth projects, Karo and Redox One.

Operationally, the company reported high ROM grades (16.9%), stable recoveries (69.7%), and a step‑change in chrome yield (29.1%), driving chrome concentrate output up 15.6% to 404 kt. Pricing conditions improved, with rhodium at US$10,480/oz and chrome prices rising to US$290/t. These fundamentals underpin a clear earnings uplift.

Importantly, these results were achieved while capex continues to flow into Karo and Redox One, positioning both projects for future contribution. The recently announced Redox One strategic partnership represents a major step forward, strengthening the commercialisation pathway for long‑duration energy storage and validating the platform’s strategic potential.

Tharisa also maintains an impressive cash balance of US$247.7 million, providing the financial strength to advance both growth projects without balance‑sheet strain. This liquidity underpins the company’s ability to fund expansion while still delivering strong operational results.

Overall:

The core business is performing strongly, the growth projects are progressing, strategic momentum is building, and the balance sheet is robust.

Crucially, the market continues to value both Karo and Redox One at zero in the current share price, despite ongoing capex investment and the strategic progress made this quarter. This leaves substantial upside unrecognised.

As long as the tech companies are building the infrastructure for the new financial settlement and monitoring system with the capex spend in the $100s billions which they are currently inputting then copper demand is baked in, this will continue for the next couple of years regardless of any recession fears, and this is only the US while other nations are doing the same.

Ptal is well placed for recovery, management is very conservative in it's management decisions, the erosion control is a one off commitment, with water disposal wells adding to the efficiency of the reservoir if you drill them in the optimal position as well enabling further production growth, it will be interesting to see how production holds up, larger capacity pumps installed so they are capable of more volume as the water cut increases.

In the short term rest assured there is no surplus of crude around even before the ME conflict what we are up against is paper dominance of the oil price, manipulation and eventually scarcity will prevail, the price was normalising upwards before the conflict broke out, watch out for Exxons update later this month I expect production flat at best and note the eps, Exxon is supposedly the best of the best and a bellwether insight to US shale which is starting to roll over and by my reckoning requires $100+ to be full cycle profitable including paying dividends and buybacks, so to fear the oil price dropping back to 2025 levels is misplaced imo and that was before the conflict.

Latest interview out today and an excellent review of the business and what to expect going forwards.

https://youtu.be/oSuCF93DyKg?si=c3fv0okfTKJrgyxT

Fantastic update with low production costs and crude at current prices even though Brent has dropped today Arrow is in an excellent position and shape combined with an on going drilling campaign increasing production together with high netbacks per barrel they are printing money, nice to see the cash balance up to $13m and rising on a weekly basis.

Good, solid update today.

The positives are substantial. Production is on track to exceed 40,000 boepd in 2026, with potential to surpass 65,000 boepd as acquisitions complete. (Serica-energy) The TotalEnergies Greater Laggan Area acquisition has now formally completed, and the ONE-Dyas/Spirit Energy deals are pending. Production is expected to rise materially from 2026 levels onward. The LSE Main Market uplift is confirmed for 2026 a re-rating catalyst.

On Triton work on the second compressor has completed and been commissioned, with twin compressor availability expected to deliver enhanced operational efficiency. The current operational focus is on increasing reliability, with production optimised around one compressor at approximately 21,000 boepd net to Serica. Following a period of stability, there is potential to move to twin compressor operations, increasing production through enhanced flow rates from new wells.

The critical point on Triton, the planned Q3 shutdown is forecast at approximately 65 days. That's a known, planned drag not a surprise but 65 days is meaningful and will suppress H2 reported numbers. The second compressor coming online is genuinely de-risking issues. Kyla has now matured 10.2 mmboe to 2P reserves, tied back to Triton via Bittern so incremental upside there.

The macro windfall, Gas received 84p/therm average in 2025; spot today is close to 140p/therm. Brent forward curves show $110+ spot but the market is pricing back toward $75 for 2028 contracts which is clearly wrong given the current structural supply crisis.

The transformation story is sound, Bruce is performing, the acquisition pipeline is executing. Triton remains the operational wildcard the twin compressor resolution is progress but the 65-day Q3 shutdown is the real near term risk. The £4.49bn ring-fenced tax loss remains the underappreciated crown jewel sitting beneath all of this.

To put things in perspective: PetroTal is currently generating around $18 million in free cash flow per month, which is steadily building their cash balance. This reflects strong profitability today, even before the drilling campaign resumes in October, and highlights how leveraged the company is to current Brent prices.

One issue which I suppose management couldn't have predicted is the US/Israel Iran conflict and due to their conservative mode of operation hedged 25% of production with collar price cap of a maximum of between$73 and $93 meaning that is the maximum price they will get, even when the price increases to levels far higher than today's $107 so while protected from the oil glut narrative price crash which was the concenus of general opinion they will capture 75% of production at market prices, given their efficiency of operations that's the only downside I can see as their cash balance continues to increase monthly until they start drilling again in six months time.

Summary of the update

PetroTal is delaying drilling until October to properly expand water‑disposal capacity, but production remains above guidance thanks to larger ESP pumps that have flattened the decline curve. The erosion‑control contractor was removed, resetting project management and ensuring the site is ready for the October mobilisation. Meanwhile, the company is building cash rapidly due to stable production, minimal capex, and the roll‑off of hedges that increases realised pricing. Crucially, Brent has surged above $100 mark due to the US–Iran conflict and severe disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, providing a powerful macro tailwind that boosts PetroTal’s margins and cash generation during the no‑drill period.