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Article reviewing Sepl progress and outlook.

https://nairametrics.com/2025/11/10/seplats-upstream-assets-power-growth-but-how-is-its-financing-managed/

I have come to the conclusion that bytes have to move away from Microsoft dominated revenue and the only way I can see is by m&a perhaps almost certainly take the other 75% of cloudbride and another more substantial acquisition, the brokers I am sure will of advised this also, Microsoft is going to squeezing margins as it's investments in AI reach mind boggling extremes with no guarantee of success, so to maintain growth we need something else, we have never needed diversity in the past due to growth from Microsoft now we need to offer more the board is fortunate in having a cash pile to spend there are suitable fits out there can the board deliver I will watch with interest if there is any mention of m&a in the news flow.

Summary of were we are at, hopefully the figures are correct.

Cheaper group cost: 8.4 % effective rate is below the original 9.5 % and well below what a stand-alone Zimbabwean project vehicle would pay (likely 13-15 % plus).

No equity dilution: Tharisa keeps 75 % of Karo; no new shares, no royalty, no streaming.

Three-year runway: Karo’s first concentrate is due in 2026; cash flow can build up before the bullet repayment.

Fee comes home: The 2.6 % guarantee fee stays in the group and is paid out of Karo’s future dividends to Tharisa.

Market signal: Bondholders agreed; nobody demanded conversion into equity or a haircut.

Cons / watch-outs

Absolute coupon is still high: 11 % cash leaves the door every year until 2028; if ramp-up slips, that’s US-13-14 m interest a year.

Zimbabwe risk: FX convertibility, royalty hikes, election noise—none of that has gone away.

Final bullet: In 2028 the full principal is still due; if PGM prices are weak, refinancing could be at an even higher rate.

Guarantee lingers: Tharisa’s balance sheet remains on the hook until the notes are gone.

With the concentrator itself only ~37 % fabricated and overall mechanical completion still around 40 %, the project is further from cash-flow than the “70 % built” headline implies. PGM prices, however, have firmed sharply—the SA basket is up 40 %-plus this year—so Karo should enter production into a far healthier pricing window than seemed likely a year ago. Against that backdrop, extending the bond to 2028 at a net 8.4 % group cost is the cheapest, least-dilutive lifeline available; it buys Tharisa the time it needs to finish the plant and prove up cash-flow before the bullet repayment falls due. In short, given the alternatives and today’s stronger metal prices, it is a good financing deal.

The remaining approx US175 million is expected to come from two sources that are already in advanced negotiation, not from a vague “to-be-found” pool:1.

ECIC-backed senior project-loan – c. US160 m

Arranged by a South-African–led African banking consortium with export-credit insurance from ECIC.

Term-sheet signed; Karo is the borrower, Tharisa providing parent guarantees.

Documentation is described as “advanced” and is the first draw expected once conditions-precedent are cleared.

2.

Off-take-linked mezzanine / pre-payment facility + OEM supplier credits – c. US31-65 m

Heads of terms agreed with an unnamed “strategic offtake / trading group” that will buy Karo’s concentrate.

Parallel MoUs with equipment suppliers for VAT and equipment financing.

Still finalising tenor, price participation and sanctions clauses, but numbers are already pencilled in.

So the US175 million shortfall is earmarked to be filled by drawing down the ECIC facility and by the offtake-linked pre-payment/supplier-credit package; Karo (and Tharisa treasury) are the parties running those negotiations.

So until these financing issues are sorted Karo is not

Bullish for gold from China as they offer storage and gold purchases to countries that have spare US dollars but are afraid of Western banks freezing accounts so now they don't have to, they can swap the US dollars for gold.

https://youtu.be/JGju7kpyPM0?si=ZAwlL2ch_C1eNbm8

Deficits predicted to last until the end of the decade for platinum and palladium in this video.

https://youtu.be/O6-4OllfVwo?si=O5UjIHSaJ5yeHCqW

Pgm review past 9m with forecast the next 12m.

Platinum: +25% YTD to ~$1,580/oz — driven by persistent structural deficits, constrained mine supply, and rising investor demand.

Palladium: Stabilized around ~$1,400/oz after years of volatility; substitution by platinum and moderate auto demand capped gains.

Rhodium: ~$7,000–8,000/oz — remains highly volatile due to limited market size and sporadic industrial demand.

2. Key Drivers (Past 9 Months)

Supply constraints: South African output limited by power issues, labor unrest, and deferred capital projects.

Demand shifts: Ongoing substitution of platinum for palladium in autocatalysts; modest recovery in jewelry and industrial sectors.

Investment flows: Renewed ETF inflows and speculative buying supported platinum.

Macro backdrop: Mixed auto production recovery; moderate global industrial growth.

3. Refined 12-Month Outlook (Nov 2025–Oct 2026) Base Case (Most Probable Scenario):

Platinum: $1,500–$2,050/oz — strong fundamentals persist; deep supply deficit and firm investment demand.

Palladium: $1,250–$1,700/oz — balanced market; substitution continues but supported by tight inventories.

Rhodium: $6,000–$9,500/oz — volatile but underpinned by constrained refinery output and resilient industrial usage.

Market View:

Current data show no evidence of a market collapse across PGMs. Structural supply deficits, steady auto-catalyst consumption, and constrained mine growth point to continued price support. Even in weaker macro conditions, downside appears limited by physical tightness and ongoing substitution trends.

Bull Case (25%): Supply disruptions or stronger Chinese/jewelry demand push platinum >$2,000/oz.

Bear Case (15%): Mild retracement possible if auto sales weaken or recycling surges unexpectedly.

4. Key Watch Points

Global auto production and catalyst loadings.

South African mine supply and power stability.

Recycling/scrap flows and secondary supply.

ETF/investment holdings trends.

Industrial and hydrogen project momentum.

5. Price Trend & Forecast Table

Metal Jan 2025 Oct 2025 % Change Revised Forecast (Next 12M)

Platinum $1,260 $1,580 +25% $1,500–$2,050

Palladium $1,350 $1,400 +4% $1,250–$1,700

Rhodium $6,800 $7,500 +10% $6,000–$9,500

(Indicative prices; based on TradingEconomics, Johnson Matthey, WPIC, and SFA Oxford data.)

6. Strategic Takeaways

Platinum: Strongest structural support; multi-year deficit story intact.

Palladium: Balanced but stable; downside limited by low inventories.

Rhodium: Still volatile yet fundamentally supported; speculative only for short-term plays.

Data sources: Johnson Matthey, WPIC, Reuters, TradingEconomics, SFA Oxford (2025 reports).

Summary of results from AI

Financial & Operational Analysis

• Scale and cash generation: The MPNU acquisition materially increased scale and export capacity,

driving a >200% y/y revenue uplift and substantial EBITDA conversion to cash.

• Leverage and liquidity: Net debt reduced to US$386m with pro-forma ND/EBITDA of 0.27x, providing

balance sheet optionality to fund capex, complete ANOH ramp and sustain distributions.

• Unit costs: Unit production operating cost of US$14.1/boe sits within guidance; maintaining cost

discipline will be key as production mix shifts.

• Production dynamics: Offshore restoration and idle-well programmes materially contributed to

offshore production; Yoho incident introduces near-term volatility into Q4 volumes.

Principal Risks

• Operational: platform incidents (Yoho), pipeline vandalism/theft, and delays to gas

processing/evacuation projects (ANOH) could curtail production or increase costs.

• Execution: integration of MPNU and mobilisation of restoration programmes carry execution risk;

missed milestones would pressure cash flow.

• Country risk: Nigeria-specific political, regulatory and security risks persist and can affect

evacuation and offtake.

• Commodity & price risk: realised oil and gas prices remain a primary driver of revenue and cash

flow; price weakness would reduce free cash flow and dividends.

Outlook & Professional Opinion

Seplat's 9M 2025 results demonstrate a successful scaling-up following the MPNU acquisition: materially higher

volumes, strong revenue conversion and exceptional cash generation.

Deleveraging to sub-0.3x ND/EBITDA and a stronger cash position meaningfully de-risks the balance sheet and

supports the new dividend policy (3Q dividend 7.5 USc/share).

Near-term sensitivity: Q4 2025 volumes will be affected by the Yoho outage (10–12 kboepd) and planned ANOH

commissioning timing. These create near-term volatility but do not, in our view, fundamentally alter the

medium-term growth trajectory.

Investment view (professional): For investors comfortable with Nigerian operational and political risk, Seplat

offers a compelling risk/reward profile driven by:

Key Positives:

• Strong and improving free cash flow converting into balance sheet improvements and shareholder

distributions.

• Narrowed production guidance to the upper range reflects management confidence in operations.

• ANOH and LPG domestic sales diversify revenue and support gas monetisation strategy.

Key Risks / Watchpoints:

• Operational incidents (Yoho) and offshore downtime can create step-changes in short-term

production and cash flow.

• Execution risk on full ANOH ramp and restoration programmes—delays would defer expected benefits.

• Nigeria country risks remain elevated relative to peers in more stable jurisdictions.

Conclusion: Seplat's operational scale-up and cash generation materially improve its investment proposition.

Provided management executes on AN

Slightly less copper grade mined, nice to see the cash balance increase, operations seem to running well with no comment of any issues, guidance maintained for the year steady as she goes.

I don't think currently the Simandou project has been fully recognised in Rios share price this is a massive game changing project regarding high grade iron ore I will be watching with interest how events unfold.

The Simandou project is one of the world's largest untapped high-grade iron ore deposits, located in southeastern Guinea's Nzérékoré Region. It comprises four mining blocks: Blocks 1 and 2, operated by the Winning Consortium Simandou (WCS), and Blocks 3 and 4, developed by Simfer S.A., a joint venture between Rio Tinto (45.05%), Chinalco (39.95%), and the Government of Guinea (15%).

To support the mining operations, a 622 km railway and a deep-water port are being constructed. The infrastructure company, Compagnie du TransGuinéen (CTG), was established in 2022 to oversee these developments, with ownership split between Simfer, WCS, and the Guinean government.

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🚧 Current Status

First Ore Loading: The first ore is scheduled to be loaded at the SimFer mine in October 2025.

First Shipment: The initial shipment of iron ore is expected in November 2025.

Production Ramp-Up: Production is projected to ramp up over 30 months, reaching a capacity of 60 million tonnes per annum (Mtpa) by 2028, with Rio Tinto's share being 27 million tonnes per annum.

Infrastructure Progress: Construction of the railway and port is progressing, with the first ore expected to be railed from the SimFer mine to the main rail line via the SimFer rail spur and initially shipped through the WCS port while the SimFer port is finalized.

I see it as trying to maximise their footprint in a competitive fragmented market they have the cash to do it plus they are also profitable although you wouldn't think it by the the markets response, over 10% down no wonder companies flee the UK to list elsewhere.

Reasonable update from Ptal, if you have to have wells shut in for one reason or another now is best time for this to occur with oil trending lower, on the positive they say guidance remains the same so we will how it turns out.

The erosion works in full operation mode with piling taking place, cash balance healthy.

I find it odd with many commodities trending significantly higher oil heading lower, the iea is constantly wrong with it's forecasting, Russian oil has been reduced due to drone strikes, and a check on reserves you would think they are all filled to the brim at these prices they are not, I know OPEC are releasing barrels however they rarely hit the actual number stated, US shake must be struggling when they need $65-70 to break even, my theory is the paper market keeping oil price low until the US refinances as it would be an inflation buster and higher cost on the debt refinancing.

Ptal seem to have everything under control even during setbacks they always find a way.

AI summary of Tharisa results

Tharisa Q4 & FY2025 Results Summary — 14 October 2025

Tharisa has reported steady operational performance for the fourth quarter and full year ended 30 September 2025, supported by improving market sentiment and early signs of strengthening PGM prices toward the end of the period. The group closed the year with a stronger balance sheet, increasing its net cash to US$68.6 million from US$43.1 million in Q3. A key strategic milestone is the planned US$547 million, 10-year phased transition of the Tharisa Mine to underground operations, extending mine life and unlocking deeper PGM and chrome resources. Production guidance for FY2026 remains conservative at 145–165 koz PGMs (6E) and 1.50–1.65 Mt chrome concentrates, reflecting a disciplined operational approach.

The company also reported continued, though measured, progress at its Karo Platinum Project in Zimbabwe, where infrastructure work and equipment installations are advancing, backed by a strong safety record (LTIFR = 0.00). Management highlighted its improved liquidity position, tight cost control, and the potential tailwind from firmer PGM prices as positioning Tharisa to capitalise on a cyclical recovery and deliver sustainable long-term growth.

A short generalised summary from AI, which I think is fair, basically the results are in line with message coming from Bytes.

Bytes’ interim results highlight a business transitioning from rapid expansion to steady maturity. Revenue and gross profit growth were modest, with operating profit down amid higher costs and incentive changes, suggesting slower momentum in a mature market. However, the balance sheet remains a key strength — debt-free, cash up to £82 m, and strong cash generation funding both a higher dividend and a £25 m buyback. Overall, Bytes looks less like a growth story and more like a resilient, cash-rich, well-managed tech distributor focused on stability and shareholder returns.

Took the opportunity to buy back in here last week after closing out a position in cmcl which I might add I expect to continue to do well with its exploration opportunities but the tipping point here was the tax holiday and the possibility of it being extended and the low aisc, anyway with the gold price rising almost on a daily basis who knows where it will eventually settle

After a search it doesn't look like there has been any progress on the solar farm.

Publicly, the solar plant remains at MoU / development / planning stage in Chariot and Total Eren announcements — no RNS or press release names an EPC contractor nor confirms module delivery/mobilisation or a formal construction start for the Karo 30 MW PV plant.

Some commentary on the royalty mining costs decision and its impact

Because royalties reduce a mining company’s profit (they are a cost), if Tharisa’s royalty charges are reduced under the court’s new method, that means more profit (or less cost) than previously expected.

That also means that Tharisa may reverse or reduce some of the USD 56.8 million provision it had set aside (i.e. it may no longer need to “reserve” that much for royalty payments).

The judgment also brings clarity for Tharisa (and potentially other miners) about how PGMs royalties should be calculated under SA law. It reduces uncertainty (at least until the matter is appealed).

For investors, this could be seen as a positive development: less downside risk from this dispute, and potentially higher future earnings if the new method is more favorable to Tharisa.

But the “right to appeal” means the matter might not be fully settled yet.

Hi hx I don't know you contribute to this board generally it is criticism or negativity if you are actually invested here surely you have managed to regain losses or gained a lot if you invested at the lows there plenty of other pgm plays more than enough to go around Volterra, Sylvania, Sibanye with the added bonus of gold and other diversity into other products, I have heard your message however it keeps repeating like a broken record, with not a mention of any positives which raises a red flag in your commentary and views as someone who may have an agenda, the fact is we on here cannot change the course Tharisa has decided to take we can however decide this is not for me and move on.

A disappointing reaction to Tharisa presentation regarding the transition to underground mining over the coming years, this link below is a review of the current situation around Platinum and an interesting read one takeaway is closed shafts, declining pgm production levels and if course deficits most interesting is a comment about no new investment at the current time for new mine supply which I do t think is true but probably meant not enough to make a meaningful difference.

https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news-and-insights/latest-market-news/2737234-pt-prices-rise-on-speculation-market-deficit

I might be behind the curve here if this document has been shared previously, but below is the link to the document issued to Jadestone, to my untrained eye it looks like an inspection report stating conditions which must be met to maintain standards set by Nopsema for JSE to maintain it's operating certificate, nothing jumps out as out of the ordinary, I would the issues raised would be applicable to most ageing vessels, in fact I see it as good attention to detail from Nopsema and imo opinion nip any thoughts of shoddy maintenance in the bud.

https://www.nopsema.gov.au/sites/default/files/2025-09/General%20Direction%202043%20-%20Montara%20Venture%20Hull%20Integrity.pdf

Not sure what to make of this article, JSE have had Nopsema all over them like a rash to meet their demands which are the gold star recommendations for maintaining a fspo, so to suddenly fall foul of their overseeing and recommendations after all our troubles seems odd to say the least.

Management knowledge all to well the consequences of not meeting their obligations that come from Nopsema,

we have seen the pictures of the tanks being repaired and then coming back online, so what we don't know is a new failing in the vessel, or to do with previous repairs or not keeping to the planned maintenance schedule, I saw the incident regarding gas bottles last week which seemed a bit of a non story so we watch and wait.

Disappointing for Jadestone not to comment in any way to mount some sort of defense, or say it's an issue that working in partnership with Nopsema we can address.

Took the opportunity to sell out bank some profit on a gold price high, looking for a new home in an alternative gold miner, good luck to all holders may the continued gold run contine I will continue to watch the news flow with interest.