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PetroTal – Results This Week Thursday/Friday

FY 2025 results more likely tomorrow.

What they stated,

Production guidance advised at year end 12k bopd in 2026 (vs 19k in 2025)Dividend suspended Nov 2025

No drilling until Q4 2026 (contractor change)

Liquidity focus they've guided to maintain $60m+ cash

What to watch

Cash position update (was $139m total at year-end, $112m unrestricted).

Any movement on advised production.

Erosion control project costs ($33m total in 2026).

Any update on drilling contractor selection or a revised date to begin drilling.

Just speculation on my part but I would be pleased if Seplat came on board McDade and Brown must both know each other from oil conferences in Africa, Seplat have specifically carried out the transition in Nigeria that is happening in Angola, both countries are members of OPEC and politically aligned both are UK listed, so that gives structure and access to finance, Seplat have the financial muscle to come on board and not necessarily take over Afrenta although they could if they wished, importantly Seplat has worked with and has connections with Chinese contractors who are active in Africa.

All of this is just pure speculation there are zero links in the open domain to link the two, but it passes the time of day untill something more substantial comes out to discuss.

Tharisa’s new chrome‑focused banking facility is more than a simple refinancing. The unsecured, revolving structure gives them much more flexibility to manage chrome purchases, shipments and sales, and lets them move larger volumes when opportunities arise. It also replaces more restrictive arrangements, improving liquidity.

The involvement of HSBC Asia is notable it strengthens Tharisa’s access to Chinese trade‑finance channels and aligns them more closely with the world’s biggest chrome‑buying market. That fits with the company’s reference to “global sales optimisation” and suggests a broader strategic shift rather than housekeeping.

Just pure speculation I hold afrenta and oil producer in Angola who put out an rns on Friday they are looking for investment either by others coming onboard as a stakeholder or by buying the company outright was my take, reading between the lines suggests they have an offer on the table for additional assets in Angola however they are beyond their financial muscle and desperately need assistance.

I wonder wether Seplat would be interested both countries are aligned politically and in OPEC, Angola is following in Nigeria's footsteps regarding its oil industry and Seplat have the experience knowledge and proven ability also I think they like the UK listing both have and the structure that brings including access to finance etc

Seplat has the money and know how, are they interested in moving and expanding into Angola, just a thought.

My reading of this rns is Afrenta have had the offer of some assets which are on the table, however they are financially to great for them to execute alone, so the options are getting another company to come onboard take a stake in the company and provide the financial muscle required, or get taken out for the buyer to complete the expansion plan probably keeping the management team and workforce intact for their contacts and competence.

Just a recap what was said about Redox One in the December 2025 Q4 update when the next update arrives in April another 4 months will have passed, very exciting and rated at zero in the value of Tharisa, will it be royalties with offtake agreement, or sell it outright unlikely, produce in scale themselves unlikely but who knows how events will pan out over time as the project develops and we begin to see performance results commented on.

Redox One, which I will unpack on this slide here. And we really see a lot of excitement and interest in battery energy storage. And one of the key challenges the world is facing is how do you store all this additional energy that is being generated from renewable energy, be it solar, wind and even hydro to a lesser degree to provide baseload power. And this is where long-duration energy storage systems come in. And Redox Flow in particular.

So we've been working on this technology since 2018. And one of the key developments and IPs that we have is the ability for us to produce electrolyte from the chrome concentrate that we produce. That electrolyte is a chrome chemical and an iron chemical. And we're taking the cheapest form of the metals, and we're converting them into highly cost competitive electrolyte. Key to these system is that they are inert, there are no environmental challenges, and they're 100% recyclable. They have a long duration life of some 20 years at minimum, and we believe that the electrolyte will continue to perform beyond that. But in the event that they are decommissioned, they can be recycled and utilized in multiple industries.

Thanks for that I have been following this data for months on end another source will be COT data when it is released later today which will give short position contract data if they update sometimes they don't, the data I have been following is all in the open domain not hidden, another false narrative is shale, it's over as a swing producer for the US most tier 1 acerage drilled no real drilling of scale being done for over two years just DUCs

being completed thats drilled but uncompleted wells costs about one third of drilling so they have been completing these wells bringing them on line production increases while rig counts are in decline, that's the illusion, the inventory of DUCs is almost exhausted, they can't drill more in huge quantities due to water disposal issues and poor acreage teir 2 and 3, the water is toxic due to chemicals used and saline can't be treated and there are limitations in place regarding pumping back underground, earthquakes the excuse, costs have risen it's expensive in reality, worst of all the pipe is carbon steel surrounded by a cement outer sleeve under pressure and cycling the cement cracks and deteriorates the pipe rusts the water is 5x saltier than sea water and includes corrosive chemicals every shale well ever drilled will structurally fail the toxic water pumped under pressure underground migrates up towards the surface through fractures in the pipe and up through the cement sleeve through acquifers when they pass through them it's a disaster waiting to happen, toxic geysers are a visible sight above ground what's happening below who knows, they have tried plugging with cement plugs but over time they fail. So the shale revolution is all but over it will be in decline mode going forwards.

Imo there has been many funds and financial instruments short on oil all down to the narrative of an oil glut which never existed except on paper, due to the paper dominance of crude markets, the EIA repeatedly stated the glut narrative as fact when the actual market data said the complete opposite, no land inventory builds at low prices, refineries working at high capacity rating with large crack spreads meaning they demanded more supply, day rates for tankers at all time highs, no one stores oil at sea with high day rates they would go bankrupt, then we have the sanctioned barrels moving the same volume of crude but needing more vessels probably 3 or 4 to hide it's origin by mixing with other crude from elsewhere, this fact was used as storage on water it wasn't it was crude in a logistical bottleneck, crude prices where heading higher before the conflict due to tightness in the supply chain, finished products of jet fuel, diesel, heating oil etc all in demand.

Now many have been caught out short oil and are now forced to meet margin calls so anything liquid or of value is being sold off to meet their financial commitments, hence Jadestone down today with crude at the price it is and a bond issue that will allow access to high prices rather than hedged barrels.

It's pleasing that the bond issuance will allow the hedging restraints of the rbl to be removed which will allow Jadestone full access to reap the benefits of a high crude price which at current levels is significant.

To comfort holders through the dip.

Thor Explorations, primarily known to its AIM investor base as a West African gold producer, holds 600km² of lithium tenure across southwestern Nigeria — a geological province now confirmed to host the largest known spodumene-lepidolite pegmatite in the country, with scout drilling returning exceptional grades of up to 9.31% Li₂O at surface with shallow dipping geometry requiring minimal stripping. This asset, currently priced at precisely zero in the market's valuation of Thor at 65-66p, sits within a jurisdiction where Chinese companies including Jiuling — a direct CATL supplier — and Canmax have committed over $1.3 billion to lithium processing infrastructure, creating an immediately available and motivated offtake destination requiring no processing capital from Thor itself. Critically, Thor requires no external financing to develop this asset — Segilola's extraordinary free cash flow generation at $4,867 gold against $1,000-1,200 AISC fully funds the progression from scout drilling through resource delineation to development decision without a single share of dilution. CEO Segun Lawson — an Imperial College geologist and corporate financier who was specifically brought in by the original Nigerian founders to access London capital markets — almost certainly identified and staked the lithium tenure with full awareness of what Chinese geological teams were already assessing across the same province, giving Thor a deliberate first-mover position at the intersection of Chinese processing infrastructure, Nigerian government support for Chinese partnerships, and the global critical minerals repricing underway — all of it completely unmentioned on the investor forums, completely unpriced at 66p, and potentially realisable as a direct cash sale to Chinese processors or a spinout vehicle without any requirement for Western institutional support, development capital, or compromise of the gold business that funds everything.

Took the opportunity to top up this morning fundamentally Tharisa are in great shape the high oil price causing sell offs across the board is this opportunity for the shift by funds into hard assets which are still at all time lows,

I see this as the beginning of the end of paper dominance determining the price of real physical assets, we are in a market where scarcity and deficit is real with no new supply imminent and grades generally falling, hopefully the fall in pgms is temporary, chrome holding up well which adds support.

You have waited a long time for this opportunity to play out crude prices are not going back to the EIA narrative of a glut which never existed except on paper and that is the issue, this is huge opportunity either afrenta gets taken out for a multiple of the current price or we ride the reality of higher crude prices, US shale is finished as a swing producer from Q3 this year the DUC inventory mostly gone then it's declines all the way, this is a strategic bid to buy into prospects of what is come wait and see what surfaces in the next few days.

I feel compelled to echo your comments, silver finally mentioned as a driver of lower aisc out in the open rather than hidden away in the small print.

Other projects ready to go finances in place to fund these projects.

We are in the midst of turmoil while the paper dominance that controls physical prices slowly gets dismantled there will be plenty of forced selling by funds who believed the EIA glut narrative and shorted crude these funds will be selling anything liquid to meet those calls, any falls here and in other commodities will over time bounce back that includes gold silver and pgms.

Good luck to all holders

I am surprised with the fundamentals so solid basket price around the $3k mark with chrome on the up and the news of informal chats with Zimplats we don't seem to be attracting much interest. May is the next scheduled update which will be quite revealing on earnings, hopefully a solution can be found in the ME which gets more depressing by the day.

This is the first indication of Tharisa not going it alone and it could offer some great benefits Zimplats is well established in Zimbabwe has good connections with government so if they were to invest in Karo say $120m this would fill the funding gap and with an offtake agreement would be ideal for both parties and signals to the rest of the market Karo is a quality asset, all we need is a formal agreement to be announced from the article all seems positive from Zimplats comments.

Hopefully with this news breaking there will also be some movement between Tharisa and the Zimbabwe government reaching compromise to suit both parties.

Hi Mike, whatever happens let's hope it turns out okay, I believe the 30% Zig currency tax by the Zimbabwe government is in theory supposed to support the currency that was the intention, in practice companies don't hold they sell so currently a lose lose for both, I get the impression the government is reluctant to change policy.

Hopefully we stick out and get the original deal, however is it worth the paper it'd written on, I note they don't treat gold miners in a similar fashion.

Hi Mike, there is no way it can work when you research the details of cash which has to be kept in Zig currency 30% plus they don't pay on time Volterra owed $100m, then on top are the other add on royalties etc, then there is devaluation risk most companies sell Zig straight away that's why Tharisa are holding out for the original terms, I am disagreement regarding righting off the investment the huge price increase in pgms makes this possible the cash doesn't matter it's spent the company is has blown the best part of $200m we will spend more and end up with a lame duck.

Tharisa has the luxury of choice, Valterra has the curse of commitment.

Zimbabwe treats Volterra this way, Tharisa would be insane to expect better treatment.

The original Karo investment case relied on favourable fiscal terms. The current 30% ZiG conversion plus royalties, combined with mid-stream policy changes, materially undermines returns and creates Volterra-style sovereign cashflow risk. Walking away preserves capital and shareholder optionality without impacting core operations.

I think Tharisa will walk away, even if documents are signed sealed and delivered the trust has gone 2/3 years down the line they will change the rules again, Volterra is the test case they are trapped and are being squeezed and milked, the current high prices for pgms give Tharisa an opportunity to write off the cash spend in Zimbabwe and save from further investment in an unreliable partner, if they did I feel sure the market would rejoice, the only issue I see is the embarrassment of saying we made a mistake, however all the blame could and should be deflected to Zimbabwe who if they had honoured their original terms the mine would be well on its way to completion.

In fact the changes to the original terms have done us a favour we now know they are untrustworthy if we move ahead with further investment it's a folly imo, hence we have this stand off over finances used as the excuse banks won't sign off under the current terms, when in reality Tharisa could fund it themselves.

I have been comparing the US major Exxon in particular against Seplat they are like chalk and cheese Exxon eps declining eps with hefty buybacks over a two year period, cash lost from balance sheet approaching $20 billion shale is high cost contrary to popular belief, Seplat is a low cost producer there is imo much more to come here more improvements in production with investment and expansion of the gas infrastructure.

If they stick within their own stated guidelines with Brent at $70 there is a good chance by November they will be cash positive.