Member Info for raxfactor

The oil glut is a myth the floating storage doesn't exist day rates for tankers are at all time highs it would be financial suicide to store oil at sea, then we have 3-4 tankers moving the same supply one tanker used to transport, these tankers are one third full transferring crude from dirty to grey to clean vessels as blending disguises the origin, so the sanctioned crude from Russia Iran and formally Venezuela has not increased but the vessels transferring the oil has.

There is no visible storage of crude on land apart from China, refineries are running at 94% in the US the row above 80% crac spreads are good the refineries want oil, finished products in the US petrol, diesel jet fuel etc are below 5 year averages as in the strategic reserve and it's the similar in the EU.

Currently the market is tight and balanced, as I mentioned before the US and EU are refinancing sovereign debt which a good portion will be complete now.

Financial shorts only a small part of the market closed out during Xmas and New Year, leaving the major short contracts about 134k however they know what's coming with Q4 updates production flat at best capex cuts, buybacks cut forward production lower.

Currently the US is experiencing a winter storm 5-7 days just the sort of shock which will increase energy demand, put this all together I expect crude to re rate when the Q4 updates hit from majors like Exxon, shale is under pressure from new water disposal regulations which will raise costs which isn't in the models currently being run, and those models will have to be updated as company after company discloses lower capex and free cash flow the bottom line is at current prices companies can't drill pay dividends and replace lost production the narrative has to flip and on a lot quicker time frame especially when the glut narrative falls apart.

Expecting a great update with 40% of oil production hedged at $70 excluding premiums and then we have gas revenues.

Axl has had it's problems will capex spent on roads and infrastructure with nothing shown in increased production but I agree it's due some good fortune as I expect all well run oil producers to experience, oil is the only commodity to fall in price while others have boomed and it's the backbone of modern society so I expect us to have our day in the sun shortly.

When Brent increases to $70+ Ptal will change it's stance, there must be loads of rigs available, their stance is this is the current situation with current prices and this is our stated plan, if Brent spikes to $80 I feel confident they source a rig from somewhere and their current plan of action will change accordingly.

It boils down to do you believe oil prices are staying low, frackers are running out of DUCs which maintained production without drilling it only costs one third of the price to bring these on stream as opposed to drilling which is what they did which explains why the drill rig count collapsed but production increased but that playbook is on the verge of exhaustion as Harold Hamm let the cat out of the bag on Friday all their tier 1 DUCs are probably online and now it's tier 2&3 left.

Echo what's been said this is fantastic news five years in the making to finally complete at nameplate capacity well done to all concerned some difficult engineering hurdles overcome.

This is not worrying it's a reflection that the current price range of Brent it's unprofitable to drill only on Friday

Harold Hamm, who is ceasing drilling operations in North Dakota in the Bakken for the first time in decades.

I know that's fracking but the principle still applies.

Wait for q4 updates from majors especially Exxon at the end of the month which will show the similar in Q3 they made $4 billion yet paid out $9 billion in dividends and buybacks and this was at higher prices, so you can see what's coming and what this will do is expose the oil glut narrative.

From a company perspective Ptal is doing the right thing they will survive this low oil environment and maintain a cash pile, my guess is if oil prices turn round on Q4 updates so will Ptal as they adjust to different circumstances currently they are front running with this update, and assuming pricing will stay the same.

At $60 Brent Ptal are breaking even with all costs paid including corporate but free cash flow no so they are treading water waiting for the oil glut narrative to break, which imo is glut of vessels not oil, the glut narrative exists to allow the US and EU to refinance sovereign debt at the lowest rates and a significant portion of this will have been completed by Q4 updates when I expect the glut narrative to be exposed.

Great to see them hitting the top end of guidance for the year, nice build in the cash balance. Atalaya is quietly building a district scale copper hub moving away from the single pit operation. These deposits will extend the mine life and will support higher throughput in future years. The outlook is looking fantastic especially with the significant silver produced as a by product.

From my understanding, at about $60 Brent the company can fund its existing operations, pay the government and its lenders, and keep production flat without needing fresh outside capital.

If oil prices start to rise I assume PTAL could look into the hire of a drilling rig not sure what the situation is regarding permits for water handling but nevertheless if the oil price goes up I expect the company will respond to the new working environment, as I see it with low prices they are in safe mode minimum capex safe guarding the cash balance and keeping the oil in the ground waiting for higher prices.

I think the oil glut narrative is about to break with Q4 updates, last week financial shorts closed out their positions, refineries in the US working at 95% others at 85% all finished products jet fuel, diesel, petrol etc not being stored going straight to demand, there is no crude being stored on land except china, the SPR and EU reserves below five year averages, the shadow fleet uses 3-4 vessels to move the same volume of crude one vessel used to move so it's a glut of tankers not oil, add to that day rates for tankers are at all time highs no one stores crude on the water under those circumstances.

The US and EU have been refinancing sovereign debt in late 2025 I expect that to have been completed before Q4 updates hit, that imo has been the reason for the glut narrative to achieve the best refinancing rates possible.

What we have in reality is market in tight supply not a one which is swimming in oil that only exists on paper where they have been counting vessels and stating that as floating storage when in fact they are a logistical bottleneck of one third full tankers transfering sanctioned oil from dirty to grey to clean vessels.

This is major news breaking the river crossing pipeline for gas export route has been completed this has been a major stumbling block due to design and construction problems drilling below the river itself.

I had my doubts it would be completed on schedule do to the complexity

The river crossing section of the critical OB3 pipeline, which is necessary for Seplat's ANOH gas plant to commence full operations, has been completed by the government's partner, NGIC.

https://share.google/k5nWKEL9LyNy9R5mH

Hi Mr0nions I think you are in the right ball park with 1 million ozs which is a significant tail wind for ATYM if silver continues to rise which it probably will already trading at around $85 oz in China for physical hopefully we will see some response from the market when it opens, this could lead to some sort of financial crisis for the banks although I expect the FED to step in which they did interesting times.

Refineries are working at around 80% or a little higher which consistent with a balanced market, the finished product they produce is not being stockpiled or stored but used.

The supposed oil on water glut is crude which has already been sold and is awaiting transfers into other vessels were this sanctioned oil will be mixed and blended with others.

Then we have the SPR and storage of crude in the EU below five year average loss which are not filling refilled due to budget restrictions, the crude which should of gone their has been bought by China.

Currently the US is refinancing sovereign debt the largest in it's history with oil being a major influence on inflation the US must refinance on the lowest possible terms possible to prevent a crisis in the world currency markets so imo that's why the crude oil glut on water exists to keep the oil price low during negotiations the true reality is there is no oil glut it's a paper glut.

The SPR and EU not refilling strategic reserves when at five year lows with a rock bottom crude price is a pointer the other is the sovereign debt rollover by the US, my opinion is that cracks in this oil glut narrative will change in H1 2026, then we have OPEC who have halted adding extra barrels up for review March from memory.

In truth we have a balanced market with oil companies paying the price until the most substantial debt roll over have been completed

The bottom line here is it was priced as a growth company which has been stopped in it's tracks by Microsoft reducing payments/, commission to companies like Bytes that's the top and bottom unless growth materialises from elsewhere it's in a mature market and rated as such, it's going nowhere until that metric changes except down.

Up until now management have never needed to bother about growth now they do and I expect them to act commission rates from Microsoft are coming back any time soon with the amount of Dosh they are spending, they are controlling what they can and squeezing their partners.....us.

Disappointing news however they are indicators falling production and a falling oil price does have implications from the October presentation if production has higher at 22k even at $62 Brent fcf would be around $38m but if production falls to 19.5k fcf falls to around $18m this before dividends and buybacks, it's looking like our production figures with be below 19.5k so the board has taken the decision to preserve the hefty cash balance and they had already reduced spending so that's where we are.

Production needs to be ramped back up is key scale matters, sort the issues out with the wells and hopefully get the spend on erosion issues in the rear view mirror.

Bottom line the company is cash rich but under pressure from falling production and spend which is not directly connected to production, with a higher oil price things would look different but from western media calling for an oil glut suppressing prices which hasn't turned up in inventories yet we wait and see on the oil price.

If I wasn't invested here I would be thinking that worth a nibble fundamentals wise nothing wrong that can't be fixed.

Hi Mike, hard to find all the data but a summary of spend to date and what's outstanding, I found data of 3 banks in a consortium who were negotiating a loan but who knows were that's at now, a reference to a streaming agreement but nothing confirmed, so a big lump sum still to be funded by Tharisa via a combination of banks, streaming agreement or a extra cash injection from Tharisa who knows but perhaps we will buy years end.

Karo Project — Spend & Funding Summary (10 Nov 2025)

Project: Karo Platinum (Zimbabwe)

Operator: Karo Mining Holdings (KMH)

Ownership: 80 % Tharisa plc / 20 % Government of Zimbabwe (free-carried)

Total Project Capex: US $546 million (latest guidance, 2025 bond extension)

1️⃣ Spend-to-Date

Reported capital expenditure to 31 Mar 2025: US $154.8 million

Estimated additional spend (Apr–Nov 2025): ≈ US $5 million

Total spent to 10 Nov 2025: ≈ US $160 million ( ≈ 29 % of total )

2️⃣ Remaining Capex

US $546 m − 160 m = US $386 million still required to complete construction.

All upfront funding currently the responsibility of Tharisa, as the Government’s 20 % interest is free-carried until production.

3️⃣ Funding Structure

Source Amount (US$m) Status / Notes

Tharisa total equity commitment 135.0 Approved group investment

Drawn to Mar 2025 ** 98.0** Already injected

Remaining equity commitment ** 37.0** Available for drawdown

Karo VFEX bond issue ** 36.8** Guaranteed by Tharisa; maturity 2028

Subtotal committed / raised ** 73.8** Cash sources identified

Remaining funding gap ** ≈ 312.2** To be financed by project debt, or partner facilities

---

4️⃣ Equity Ownership & Economic Exposure

Party Equity % Nominal Capex Share (US$m) Funding Responsibility

Tharisa plc 80 % 436.8 Funds 100 % of capex (to be reimbursed for the 20 % carry)

Govt of Zimbabwe 20 % 109.2 Free-carried – repays from future dividends

---

5️⃣ Summary

US $160 m spent to date.

US $386 m remaining project cost.

US $73.8 m of identified funding (equity + bond).

≈ US $312 m still to secure.

Tharisa remains the sole upfront funder until production cash flows recover the Government’s carried share.

Bond maturity extended to 2028, providing funding runway while full project financing is arranged.

Disappointing news, if there is a silver lining it's that there is interest being shown in the NS wether there are changes afoot to the tax regime or its all wishful thinking time will tell.

They didn’t “default” – they re-profiled the bond repayment on purpose, and it was the prudent thing to do.

Cash was there

FY-24 operating cash flow was **US204 m** and the group ended the year with **net cash**; the US36.8 m Karo bond could have been repaid on schedule.

Management chose to extend instead

In October-2025 Tharisa announced that the Karo bond maturity had been pushed out to December 2028, with repayments tied to Karo construction milestones rather than a fixed calendar.

In plain English: “we’ll start amortising once the project is cash-positive.”

Why it makes sense

Keeps ~US37 m extra liquidity** in the Zimbabwe subsidiary while the project debt package is still being finalised.

Avoids forcing the South African parent to inject yet more equity this year, so the group balance-sheet stays net-cash and dividend/buy-back capacity is preserved.

Aligns debt service with project cash-flow – exactly the structure commercial banks want to see before they sign the senior facility.

So the extension was not a liquidity squeeze; it was a deliberate, low-cost re-timing that removes one funding hurdle and will probably be rolled into the bigger syndicated facility once Karo reaches financial close.

China eases back on commodities except for iron ore, should bode well for Rio on the back of strong Copper and Aluminium prices.

China Cuts Back On Commodities, Except For Iron Ore - Finimize https://share.google/00zHaGc54H6LEvKBE

Hi Mike

I thought ths get 2.4% paid back from karo.