Member Info for raxfactor

I hope you are right with your prognosis in fact it's a logical statement and decision for a competent management team but selling a profitable asset albeit at a profit then over spend substantially on a drilling campaign when the balance sheet is creaking and will this additional production substantially increase the lost barrels from the recent sale? I don't the answer but they have now spent the cash raised on this extra drilling depth for their credibility I hope it comes good.

What an excellent update taking into account the pump issues with 3 out of 4 being replaced and pushing production back up even so production levels not to shabby, compared to last year cash levels slightly up although down on the last quarter, with the river bank refurbishment being a one off hitting the balance sheet this is being successfully mitigated, the river levels well above the past couple of years we don't have any worries

there. All in all the management team keeping the operations ticking over nicely.

Very disappointing is an understatement, we all know for that sort of money you could of bought another producing asset off the shelf, for there to be any credibility left for JSE this drill requires production of 5k b/d plus. Another thing that's wearing thin it's it's always issues out of their control never their responsibility to mitigate what lies ahead, the bad luck card has been played once to often.

They seem to be a company that has morphed into reactive mode losing the ability to see issues that might arise then when they do sort of fudge it, basically c..p management has sunk a shining light of a company to the barge pole category, as a shareholder who has backed the management through difficult times those days are over, and just as our previous leader was relieved of his duties, someone at a high level should carry the blame for this debacle and sent packing.

I would think we may hover around this level maybe claw a little back, probably the next trading update will be the real catalyst for a re-rate upwards all the major brokers have marked us down so only that will change sentiment or a statement of a major contract win surfaces which is possible, as management stated delays.

The biggest danger here is maintained production the dumps have limited capacity which cannot sustain

13 -14tk tonnes of cu per year to 2034 when the permit expires at some point this is going reduce and the longer they maintain production at current levels the closer they come to depleting the asset as a guess if they continue production at current levels in five/six years that's it.

So to my mind that's why they desperately need a new asset to continue the story it is now a race against time so they have until 2031 to sort it out okay till then, so don't think everything is hunky dory until 2034 because it's not.

What crosses my mind is if there is a US company who does something similar selling Microsoft products to customers say in North and Southern America but don't have a footprint in the UK well I would be looking here compared to the overrated rating of US companies this would look like a no brainer and a £70m cash bonus for doing so, just a thought.

With the recent surge in Pt prices it is interesting to note that we do have a physical shortage of pgms, and that other companies are taking note and doing something about it, Volterra has been spun out of Anglo American although not producing currently they will be in maybe in 2027, then we have Ivanhoe better known for copper production but are currently ramping up production at a new mine, so then we have THS and with these large players staking a claim a think we have our strategy right, the deep mines of Sibanye are uneconomical with low cost operators in vogue the timing is looking to be just right as prices start to reflect the reality in the pgm space, bearing in mind Russia have probably sold as much as they can produce to China plus any stockpiles they had to fund their mic.

Anyway far from being critical of Karo it is to late to build a mine after the price has surged and you find yourself to late at the party, others have anticipated this re-emergence in demand pleased THS has been proactive and not reactive hopefully they and us will be rewarded.

Kenmare tweeted the other day that the two high capacity dredges have arrived in Mozambique another step towards improved operations.

https://x.com/KenmareRes/status/1942598863702864099?t=yE-t_zAmgtmz5JxRCy6qaA&s=19

Hi Mike what you is true however the basket price back in Q1-Q3 was abysmal so to my mind missing full year guidance is not issue if THS maintain current levels of production they would hit lower end of forecast for pgms and slightly miss for chrome so hopefully with a much improved recent basket price there is much more of an incentive to improve the production numbers upwards to come back within range and more importantly improved revenue and fcf.

How odd auto correct should say avoid when I typed .... worth a listen.

Roger talking about Sepl at the NOG 2025 conference avoid listen.

https://youtu.be/az9CdETFkVQ?si=jLBIp5Nrg3gQIq7I

My only concern was the sale of shares by Sam Mudd however the explanation given about tax reasons seems reasonable also looking at the buys v sells data as a guide shows there is no mass exodus from BYIT quite the opposite and as many others have done I to have taken the opportunity to add to my position.

With the cash they have available and on balance sheet if there is a downturn in the sector generally as seems likely they can always fallback on m&a for growth, I don't see this as being overpriced at this level, profitable plenty of cash, I could say consolidating a position they have taken years to build they are not stating losses but the same as last year importantly deferred not cancelled contracts which suggests the space they are supporting is under pressure, personally a perfect time for m&a to gain a bigger footprint.

BYIT getting hammered today as results are forecast to be disappointing sluggish growth note the decline here with no news is this a slow down generally in the space, i don't know but the market isn't happy today for one reason or another, l was thinking buying opportunity but in the uncertain world we live in who knows.

Another thought is a quick look at the five year chart that's how far you have to go back for the SP to be this low is the company in a better position today than five years ago?

I think so.

Imo this slow down had been expected by the market for some time although every time the results were published they were doing fine, looks like the market has finally got it's opportunity to trash the sp due to slow down actually happening, however it does say customers have deferred their commitments not cancelled so there is every chance they will appear later, my take is they are going to do as well as last year just not exceed it, they are still debt free, still making a profit for me it's a opportunity.

The fall in oil prices makes no sense when today's figures released by the US show they have drawn down again on inventory levels across the board leaving them at or below the five year trend lines, you would of thought with oil so cheap they would increase their inventory levels, bearing in mind these levels don't take into account days of coverage which is what really matters, looks to me like they are trying their best to keep oil prices down as a hedge against inflation but I think this will only last short term until they refinance their debt or more probably oil does it's own thing like gold platinum silver and copper catches at bid higher.

Great video talking platinum and why it's break out after fifteen years trading sideways has happened and hopefully continue.

https://youtu.be/e_5Jg84M-GI?si=bNLS-Sg4IYJf3cPE

On the back of today's encouraging drilling results which should extend the life of Blanket mine Mark Learmonth gave this interview on around 10th June at the 121 mining conference to attract more investors to CMCL.

https://www.theassay.com/the-assay-tv/the-assay-tv-mark-learmonth-ceo-director-caledonia-mining-nysecmcl-aimcmcl-17-6-2025/

Yes they launched an app called ii community which all have access to if join it's free you can chat about stocks and follow other investors who have made the most gains, I have only been on a couple of times so not fully aware of all it's benefits yet but a step in the right direction, it does most traded, most sold that type of thing.