Member Info for raxfactor

I don't agree with your email, market conditions and that alone is what is holding Jadestone back, have you noted the recent Q4 update from Exxon the poster boy of majors?

Dig below the usual narrative and that tells a very different story a company which is at the beginning of a death spiral, production increased by completing DUCs drilled but uncompleted well due to drilling at current prices is uneconomical that inventory is now severely drained with additional costs incoming for water disposal and methine monitoring 24/7 not accounted for in current modelling, the wells when they do start drilling again will be predominantly teir 2 and 3, eps declines for several quarters in a row which is the telling statistic, although they have continued paying dividends and buybacks $20 billion has been lost from the balance sheet.

Specifically related to Jadestone operationally very strong

Record production ~19.8k boe/d

Akatara outperforming

Costs down 14%

Portfolio stable and diversified

This is the best operational footing Jadestone has had in years.

Financially: mixed

Realised prices were softer

Impairments overshadowed the operational gains

And the big one, net debt didn’t fall as fast as hoped

The company is clearly generating cash, but the pace of deleveraging is slower than the market wanted to see.

When oil prices eventually move upwards we are well placed for sentiment to change dramatically.

Just my take other views welcome.

It seems to me Jadestone is hostage to low oil prices, the real net figure is probably $80m when the lifting is taken into account, at current prices it is a slow grind to reduce the debt quickly but the hedges allow this to happen even in aow price environment, so operationally good, financially first glance not so good but factor in actual prices they doing okay.

It all comes down to the oil price they are set up now around 20k production should prices move towards $75

which is likely if you research the full oil industry cycle, inventories of crude, finished products, jet fuel. petrol. diesel etc inventory and the refinery demand and capacity it tells a different story to Brent at $65, so when not if prices rise this will be trigger for JSE to reduce net debt and the the re rate we have waiting so long to see.

The issue is plain and simple diversity away from Microsoft their plan seems to be half hearted hire more staff to boost the sales team chase more Microsoft clients to make up for shortfall for the reduction in payments received then hoping for the best, while I believe a portion of the new sales teams are pushing their other areas of expertise to move away from total reliance on Microsoft, their updates to the market at H1 and H2 don't cut it, we need quarterly updates and commentary on how this transition is going at current no one knows.

Meanwhile the share price drifts lower due to the impression it is no longer a growth story just a steady earner in a mature market. They have the cash they should use it on a major acquisition instead of throwing it away on buybacks instead the impression they are sending out is lack of ambition with little news flow sort of proves it.

My understanding was that they had previously had a much higher % holding sold down and have now bought to increase their holding again, however I accept I may have got my wires crossed.

Interesting after a bit of research into Rance Holdings it appears they have connections within Tharisa and have a seat on the board already.

Shelley Wai Man Lo is a non-executive director on the Tharisa board and is explicitly described as a Chinese national representing Rance Holdings. She has over 20 years’ experience in accounting, project investment and management in Hong Kong and mainland China and was (at least historically) General Manager – Roads at NWS Holdings Ltd

So my take this is a huge vote of confidence from people who know on the inside exactly what's going on.

RandyI can see you take great pleasure in implying your superior knowledge above mere mortels like myself.

Good luck with your investments

Randy

Please explain don't be shy

With every $ rise in Brent will mean that the board will be getting closer to reconvene and ultimately rewrite the script for the rest of the year with the rig hire brought forward along with a new drilling schedule, patience required the oil price will do the rest.

I suspect when this news gets digested buy the wider market in the gold miner insiders community they will be running the rule over what's on offer here especially Endeavour, the Chinese will also be interested Segun is presenting at a mining conference this week in which it won't be solely about THX but about Nigeria as a mining opportunity and mining friendly jurisdiction I suspect in 2-3 months we will be approached.

The re rate of Platinum is mind blowing to see it breaking new highs day after day it seems unreal, along with the other basket metals also rising with the effects of these rises yet to show up on the THS balance sheet makes this a compelling opportunity the market hasn't recognised what's occurring here or if it has we are being ignored.

Absolutely outstanding update the revenue alone in first 12 months of production is greater than THX mcap then the build cost paid back in nine months when usually it a timeframe of 3-4 years, a conservative gold price used to allow for a pullback in price.

Probably the best of all which is not mentioned is the team who will build this mine to today's latest standards have a proven track record and has been kept together so know what we are getting, I have to say Segun is the man behind it all his degrees in Geology and Finance a rare combination gives him the understanding and in depth knowledge of the whole process from the rocks to the financial structure required to build this project.

Hi Mike I remember when banks and others introduced Platinum cards which were one up from gold how times have changed, platinum has some catching up to do.

A view on why platinum has suddenly rocketed in price.

ICE vehicle demand wouldn't cause a 167% price move in 12 months. The parabolic move reflects recognition that platinum is becoming critical infrastructure metal for the AI economy—specifically for hydrogen fuel cells solving the data center power crisis. This is structural, long-term demand that scales with AI data center buildout, not cyclical auto demand.

The market is repricing platinum from a "car exhaust metal" to an "AI infrastructure metal" with hydrogen as the bridge technology.

I know we are looking forward to pfs coming out shortly but lithium the forgotten part of Thors exploration licenses has had a recent re rate.

THE LITHIUM OPPORTUNITY - PERFECT TIMING MEETS STRATEGIC ASSETS:

Thor's 600km² lithium tenure in Nigeria represents an extraordinary optionality play that has been completely overlooked by the market. The company secured these permits when lithium was trading at $10,000/tonne and exploration was deprioritized in favor of maximizing gold cash flows at record prices. However, lithium has experienced a dramatic rebound in 2026, surging over 100% year-over-year to approximately $21,000/tonne, with industry leaders projecting further increases to $28,000/tonne driven by explosive energy storage demand growth of 44% and looming supply deficits. Thor's high-grade surface samples reaching 9.31% Li2O and drilling intersections of 11 metres at 2.61% Li2O position the company to capitalize on this resurgence at minimal cost - they acquired these permits for essentially nothing when others weren't looking. Nigeria's strategic importance is further validated by Chinese companies investing over $800 million in lithium processing facilities, recognizing that Nigeria accounts for 13.8% of China's spodumene imports and offers cheap natural gas power for energy-intensive lithium processing - the same CNG/LNG advantage that gives Thor its gold mining cost leadership. The company can now self-fund aggressive lithium drilling from its $137M cash position without any shareholder dilution, creating a dual-commodity producer story (gold + battery metals) that would command premium valuations in US markets. At Thor's current P/E of 2.5 x, the market is pricing the lithium portfolio at essentially zero value despite the perfect timing of the price rebound, Nigeria's strategic position in global lithium supply chains, and Chinese validation through massive infrastructure investments - representing one of the most asymmetric risk/reward opportunities in the current commodity landscape.

I was having a play on chat gbt for a broker type summary over the last 6 months and below is what it produced based on spot prices.

so the figures are different from Tharisa current basket $2949 and Karo $2601

The prill splits are from what I had ages ago so probably changed nowadays so while the board is quiet I thought I would post it.

PGM basket – investor note (6 months to 21 Jan 2026):

The PGM basket is trading at the top end of its six-month range, with an estimated value of ~$3,150 per basket unit at current spot prices. By volume, platinum dominates the basket (0.554), followed by palladium (0.162) and rhodium (0.095), with ruthenium (0.14) and iridium (0.049) making up the remainder. By financial contribution, platinum currently provides the largest portion of basket revenue (~44%), closely followed by rhodium (~31%), whose elevated price per ounce gives it an outsized impact despite its smaller volume share. Palladium, iridium, and ruthenium contribute more modestly to revenue.

Note: Values are based on current spot prices; actual realized basket prices for producers are typically lower due to off-take agreements and treatment charges, but the principle of volume vs revenue contribution remains the same.

Overall, the basket reflects tight physical markets and strong revenue visibility heading into 2026, with platinum and rhodium as the primary revenue drivers.

Implications for producers: Operations with higher platinum or rhodium exposure benefit disproportionately from current pricing, highlighting the revenue advantage for South African producers and recycling-focused operations.

Ptal are stating and have set their stall out for the worst case outcome for oil aligned with the oil glut narrative and projected oil prices however since their figures the base case has already changed with Brent moved from $60 to pushing $65 and if oil continues to improve to $70 over the coming weeks I expect Ptal to move away from their base case drilling will start earlier rigs will be sourced, what they are currently set up to do is protect the balance sheet, oil price moves everything changes.

In the update yesterday the base case for Brent was $60 and the guidance that followed is based on figure however currently Brent is at $65.

Assuming PetroTal’s production starts 2026 at 15,000 bopd and gradually declines to 12,000 bopd over the year, with Brent at $65, the company would generate average annual production of ~13,100 bopd. At a realised price of $59/bbl (Brent minus discount), this produces revenue of roughly $283 million. After operating costs (~$125 million) and including the one-off $65 million erosion capex plus $15 million sustaining/drilling spend, free cash flow would be about $78 million. Excluding the one-off capex, FCF rises to $143 million, showing that even with declining production, PetroTal generates strong cash flow at $65 Brent. This suggests the company could maintain financial stability, restore dividends, or accelerate drilling once the erosion project is complete, and higher oil prices would further improve cash flow and upside optionality.

Excellent commentary Saga, I have never warmed to management under Carvill and the the same theme continues, but at the end it comes down to the price of the commodity the company sells if that is subdued then even the best management are left with efficiency as their only lever.

One area is capital discipline I am sure a lot of expenditure going back over recent years could have been paid out of fcf if they hadn't squandered it away especially when they knew projects were on the horizon.

Currently they are trapped by project expenditure which created debt and market forces, however they do deserve some credit for the move of WCP A without setbacks.

Then we have this license business going on in the background which gets talked about but not resolved, but then again who's in the driving seat with those negotiations.

Meanwhile the share price performance has been abysmal, hopefully the commodity rally will finally turn up with mineral sands.

Some extra information to add to the ANOH gas plant with reference to the OB3 pipeline which is not complete

however SEPL bypassed this main artery but the full benefit of ANOH will be realised when it is completed.

The main obstacle to completing Nigeria’s OB3 gas pipeline is the River Niger crossing, which requires large-scale horizontal directional drilling (HDD) beneath a wide, deep river with unstable sediments. This is a technically demanding, high-risk operation where earlier drilling approaches failed, forcing redesigns, new technology, and long delays. Although most of the pipeline is complete and some sections are already flowing gas, the river crossing is a binary issue — until it is successfully drilled, the full pipeline cannot be operational, regardless of overall completion percentage.

For Seplat Energy, this means OB3 should be treated as upside optionality rather than a base-case assumption. Seplat is not responsible for building OB3 and has already de-risked its ANOH gas project by achieving first gas via alternative infrastructure, allowing cash generation without OB3. Completion of the pipeline would improve volumes, pricing, and market access over the medium term, but given the engineering difficulty and history of delays, investors are right to remain cautious and not rely on OB3 timing in their core valuation.

Solid update with increased production looming in several areas in 2026 as the acquisitions kick in SQZ in good health.