Member Info for SeaTank8300

I am sad to see Roger go and he has been a fantastic representative of the company, but it is not unexpected and he deserves a break and to enjoy his considerable earnings from years of grafting at Seplat. He is truly a legend and leaves Nigeria with one of the few corporate success stories of the past ten years. Few in his position would have persisted with such a straight course and vision for the company.

I feel he leaves behind a strong governance structure and I am hopeful that the new Chairman, who is a local corporate legend in his own right, will provide the vision to take Seplat to the next level.

I just hope shareholder communication does not suffer in the meantime.

I've been following SAVE for years and just acquired a decent size position (£s six figures). This is a great level to accumulate stock IMO. Plenty of catalysts.

I have a feeling that Peel Hunt will initiate analyst coverage of AAZ soon. I wrote a question asking about analyst coverage on the earnings call and it was conveniently ignored. Must be around the corner. When institutions understand this share it will fly.

Sadly governance in Ghana is rubbish and always has been, so most if not all big operators will pass purely on the jurisdiction without even looking at at the asset. That's why the Chinese are likely to get this in the end. But there's no downside in waiting the process out.

I find it very strange, the lack of a following on this board

Anyway, I am looking forward to proper broker coverage of AAZ followed by proper marketing of the investment story to institutions. The share price should start to fly.

I don't wish to get hopes up, but this is a sure way of advertising to all potentially interested parties far and wide that ALL is on the block to the highest bidder and anyone seriously interested in acquiring a major lithium asset had better make an offer within the next month or so. I would have thought it quite likely someone somewhere will be triggered by this and set their bankers to work. To sell now would be foolish indeed.

The value fundamentals are solid at 600p even if the oil price softens back towards $85, so I see this as a long term hold with an eye on 1000p. The risk to making it to 1000p are either a disastrous event in Nigeria (operational or political, negligible risk from where I'm sitting) or the oil price correcting to the $60s (more likely). It will take a bit of time but investors are remunerated for sitting on their hands and waiting for that 1000p figure. Even with oil back to the $70s the downside risk at 600p is limited in my view, given steady operational enhancements and transformation in share activity (rising institutional investor participation). On 24 March I laid out some free cash flow forecasts at $80 oil; sufficient to justify a 1000p level in my view. At $100 oil, more so. Institutional investor covet this mix of yield and growth and they will continue to trickle into the stock, nudging the share price upwards.

The grades and thickness data is alright but not mind-blowing in my view, but the polymetalic features could make the difference. Pleased about the extension of drilling, but can't tell if it's very meaningful as does not sound a great deal extra.

You're welcome. I think we have been in it together for a few years by now!

The board's dividend policy ($1bn over five years) is very conservative and can be sustained at very very low oil prices - it is exceptionally bankable. The free cash flow headroom is almost the same again at $65 oil. At $85 oil, by my calculation adds additonal circa $300-350m of annual post tax free cash flow at current production levels. At this oil price, SEPL should be able to pay out more than $3bn in dividends over five years, somewhat weighted towards later years given the five year plan anticipates production rising in the high single digits annually. That's equivalent to around 70% of the share price back in dividends, net of dividend witholding tax, over five years at today's closing share price of 530p. Epic. Will the board in fact pay out so much? I hope so, as what other uses are there for the cash?

The kicker in SEPL's case (vs other mid cap producers) is the low-risk geology, low-risk production profile, gas upside opportunties, and ultra-long reserve life (40+ years 2P + 2C).

I do think the share price will have to take a breather at some point - where that will be I don't know but it appears 600p is closing in. In any case, the fundamentals and valuation remain highly attractive, even more so at these oil prices.

* valuation multiple discount vs Exxon refers to EV/EBITDA

600p is a staging post to 1000p, so don't sell early, foolishly, when all the ducks are in a row and risks are benign. The hard work was at 100p to 200p. Now we reap the rewards of those seeds sown years ago. Let me spell it out:

~60% valuation discount to Exxon despite significantly higher sustainable annual growth rate in production (~8% Vs ~3% over next five years, minimum)

$1bn of dividends promised by management over next five years, substantially below the ~$2bn of free cash flow at $65 oil price that SEPL will generate - the dividend profile is attractive but can and should double again. At $90 oil, do the math.

Untapped offshore gas reserves are ripe for building an LNG export business but are not incorporated into guidance or the investment plan - that will change

Exploration opportunities - the historical reserve is massive but modern technology and drilling techniques have never been utilised to optimise or grow the asset base

Institutional investors are only now waking up to this. We are witnessing a multi year transformation in scale.

As an experienced investor, I caution against making a sell decision based on an arbitrary number in pennies (the share price) or the % gain you are sitting on. Update yourself on the fundamentals; reconfirm that the upside opportunity is great while the downside risk is minimal; then just sit on your hands as you probably can't find a better place to be.

Big news: FTSE indices has upgraded Nigeria to Frontier Markets status. MSCI will be next. This should result in significant passive capital inflows, another driver of sustained momentum.

Yes what a journey it has been, but there is more to come!

500p is certainly a milestone, but it's just a number. The true value of SEPL is considerably north of here.

Also if a large block seller has been cleared, there should be some upward pressure on the share price (since downward pressure has been removed)

I suspect that Sustainable Capital have cut or exited their position. There are not many holders of that size. I have not seen any news of an accelerated bookbuild, so perhaps it was a single buyer. Interesting to see who it is.

You can plug in the oil price of your choosing, but in any case the major sensitivity is the decline in the effective cash tax rate which is instrumental in driving FCF.

Also note the upside drivers: SEPL has a solid plan to grow production, opex per barrel is targeted to fall, transition to PIA will provide additional tax benefits, there is a sizeable gas business not included here, and there is optionality in building a gas for export business.

At a more sensible oil price of $80 and taking into account growth in oil production and some opex and royalty reduction, and an achievable 40% cash tax rate, FY28 FCF: 130kbpd @$80 oil - royalties @ 18.5 - $13 opex and 40% effective cash tax rate - $500 capex = $1bn FCF on a $3.7bn market cap or 27% FCF Yield.

The share price is still too low - 600p is very achievable, equivalent to a 20% FCF yield using the assumptions above.

bag of a *** packet estimate of fcf for oil and condensates only once operating at full tax efficiency:

20% tax on oil price

$15/bbl opex

35% cash tax rate (currently 60%)

$400m capex

works out at $1.3bn fcf at a 35% cash tax rate at $100 oil, or $900m fcf at a 50% cash tax rate (should be achievable in 2027). this assumes 110k bpd.

Https://www.cnbcafrica.com/media/7772196613283/seplat-energy-doubles-revenue-as-production-surges-on-offshore-consolidation-

Found it on CNBC, around 7 mins in. She said the effective cash tax % had fallen from around 80% in the third quarter last year to low 60s at the end of the fourth quarter. The free cash generation at $100 oil will be significant (if it stays up here).

I just watched an Instagram video interview linked to a post on X where SEPL's CFO suggested effective cash tax rate for SEPNU could fall to 60%, and I think she said this year, I can't be sure. I went back to the video but is now deleted. Did anyone else catch it? If true, this would be huge. Can't be sure though.