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You need to consider reserve life, as Seplat has 30-40 years, whereas these two comparables are

Seplat Energy (SEPL.L): CMD Update Supports Further Re-Rating Potential

Seplat’s CMD sets out a significant scale up in ambitions on the back of tthe end-2024 transformational MPNU acquisition, in particular around the scope for monetisation of gas into the fast-growing Nigeria domestic market. Top-line growth is earmarked as c. 8% p.a. through 2030, and supplemented bottom-line by expected gains in operating and fiscal efficiency. There is also a step-change in shareholder returns that should

translate into a 7% dividend yield. All this comes against a backdrop of a

Nigerian Sovereign that has rallied 25% YTD, looking to reflect the success of economic reforms in the economy. While Seplat equity has already enjoyed significant YTD returns, a low multiple (c. 3x EV/DACF in 2027) and a rich opportunity-set speaks to further upside in our view.

I thought it was a great presentation today. Agree that the MD of Offshore gave a really super presentation and vibe, but frankly they all were great with excellent flow and authentic excitement.

Management have obviously been conservative with estimates as they want to comfortably meet them, so put the $1bn of cumulative dividends over the next five years in that context, and note it is estimated using a $65 oil price; in all likelihood, this dividend projection will only rise from here

But a major takeaway is the very large resource base which will last them decades - this stands them apart from most comparable companies. Five years from now, the growth and production runway will still be in place. That means the share should trade at a premium to many of its peers, not at a massive discount.

And noting the possible sale of 10% of the working interest in SPNU to NNPC, I'll believe it when the government finds the money to pay for it, until then belongs to Seplat.

300p is well within sight and I will have to think harder about the size of my position when we reach 350p

Seplat completes first domestic LPG supply from Bonny River Terminal

(bne IntelliNews)

Seplat Energy has completed its first domestic supply of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) from the Bonny River Terminal in Rivers State, delivering 12,600 metric tonnes of butane to the Nigerian market in partnership with Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL).

Nairametrics reported that the shipment marks a shift in the terminal’s operations, which have historically focused on exports. The move aligns with Seplat’s strategy to expand access to energy within Nigeria and reduce the country’s reliance on imported LPG. The initiative forms part of wider efforts to enhance energy security and promote the use of cleaner-burning fuels.

Seplat is currently advancing two major gas infrastructure projects aimed at expanding domestic capacity: the 300mn standard cubic feet per day (MMscfd) ANOH Gas Plant in Imo State and the 90 MMscfd Sapele Gas Plant in Delta State. Both plants will feature LPG extraction units, with daily capacities of 120 metric tonnes and 163 metric tonnes respectively. The facilities are expected to begin operations in the fourth quarter of 2025.

Seplat Chief Executive Officer Roger Brown said that boosting local LPG production is essential for tackling health and environmental concerns.

“Gas and LPG usage is growing rapidly in Nigeria, and reliable domestic supply is essential to achieving energy security, reducing carbon emissions, and improving air quality. At Seplat, we are proud to be at the forefront of this transition, delivering cleaner energy solutions that empower communities and support sustainable growth,” he said, as quoted by Nairametrics.

According to the report, more than 80% of Nigerian households continue to rely on traditional biomass for cooking.

To contact bne IntelliNews about this story, enquiries@intellinews.com

Aug/20/2025 09:13 GMT

As at end April I heard they had rejuvenated 10 of the 400 wells, adding 750bbl per well, which seems a lot, but we'll need to wait until the capital markets day to hear how many they plan for the year, as it could obviously be quite a number (40 or even 50 I guess) and they will start with the most productive first so the marginal increase per well will decline as they go. I doubt this is something one can model very accurately. The monthly production stats are showing a clear upwards trajectory of production and that is what I am tracking for progress.

Don't worry too much about ANOH, it is only unrecognised upside risk (personally I don't see much downside risk here). ANOH involves three products: dry gas which was/is expected to be delivered to power plants in the West via the OB3 pipeline, then there is the condensate (a considerable amount of the value) which will be evacuated the same as their oil via the Bonny Terminal, finally there is LPG bottled and sold locally at around 50% of equivalent Brent price. As per the Q1 report, "During the period AGPC agreed preliminary heads of terms for delivery of gas into the export market through the Nigeria LNG (‘NLNG’) terminal. This will act as an interim outlet for gas monetization and work is currently ongoing to make the necessary pipeline modifications to enable gas sales to commence in 3Q 2025." I hear there are potential offtakers in the East who could take this dry gas. That said, the OB3 pipeline will complete in my view because it is already a huge sunk cost and one of the key gas infrastructure projects of the nation so can't be abandoned. The government will make it happen, eventually.

Far more important to the share price is the production recovery of SPNU, paydown of debt, then increase of dividends from 2026 onwards.

I finally had a chance to skim through the results. The rise in offshore production in Q2 was confirmed, so if this trend continues then suggests full year production will come at the higher end of the range. This rejuvenation of production is the fundamental investment case of SPNU, so something to be very pleased about. The other positive is confirmation of $15/bbl FCF before financing costs at a circa $70 oil price, which is more than initially assumed when the transaction completed a few months ago. I'm expecting around $500m annual FCF after financing costs assuming a 10% raise in production at $70 Brent, which places SEPL on a 24% FCF yield. IMO the share could trade closer to 15% FCF yield assuming continued operational success and a little more deleveraging. A price level of 400p is therefore achievable say a year from now if all remains well, with upside if the POO lifts. FCY yield is a more useful measure than dividend yield as it ultimately determines the dividend yield in the future; the current dividend level is a function of the balance sheet which needs deleveraging but once debt has been reduced to a lower level there are few options to utilise the cash flow other than return it to shareholders. The one possible large capex project in the very long term might be an FPSO for export of offshore gas, but that would be an entirely new revenue stream and raising of revenue expectations too. In short, SEPL remains a cheap stock backed by prodigious cash generation and diversified asset base with growth levers, as attractive an investment as it was back in the days it traded at 100p.

Total Funds Required to be Segregated $1,002,455,966

https://financialservices.plus500.com/firm-financial-information/

Happy days

Https://www.nuprc.gov.ng/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/JAN-TO-DEC-2025-PRODUCTION-2.pdf

Great throughput from Seplat's Qua Iboe terminal again last month. Remember, January was an unusually exceptional month of throughput, but June beat it by 10% despite fewer days (30 vs 31).

The last time monthly throughput was more than this was March 2022 - seriously!

We're just two months away from the Capital Markets Day where more will be revealed - feels like we have a good run up ahead of us folks. Happy days.

Segregated funds in the US just keep ticking up :)

$$$$$$

Canaccord initiated coverage of Seplat Energy (SEPLF) with a Buy rating and 450 GBp price target. The dual-listed oil and gas producer completed a "transformative" acquisition of ExxonMobil's (XOM) MPNU assets in 2024, notes the firm, which believes Seplat "presents a highly attractive and overlooked investment opportunity." Seplat offers "unique" exposure to both onshore and offshore Nigerian production, the analyst added.

This story was produced by The Fly.

(Bloomberg) -- Canaccord Genuity initiated coverage of Seplat Energy Plc with a recommendation of buy.

PT set to 450 pence, implies a 88% increase from last price.

Traded value today almost £2m

I'm a shareholder but these numbers are rubbish

I hear through my contacts that institutional interest has risen in recent weeks. Liquidity is still a pain point but has improved since beginning of last week. I don't know if this is a sustained improvement, lets hope so. There is a long term growth and dividend story here, so institutional investors should start to engage with the stock so long as liquidity continues to tick upwards. With more engagement and steadily higher share price, liquidity should improve and drive further interest, a reinforcing dynamic.

This does not appear to be a risk, Iran is almost out of the game. If anything, there is more near term downside for Oil. Anyway, I don't see POO as the value driver for Seplat; production upside is the value driver.

Https://www.nuprc.gov.ng/oil-production-status-report/

I see from NUPRC's updated production report to end May that SPNU's terminal saw May volume +14% higher than April and +8% higher than January, which itself was a very strong month. I suspect that's driving the share price.

I suspect the government consultation on north sea oil that is currently in progess might have some positives for the industry?

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/government-to-unleash-the-north-seas-clean-energy-future

From research I've done, the arbitration award will be worth around 10-20% of the headline award figure in actual cash value to an investor in such awards. So if they achieve an award of $800m, the value might be around $120m. I'd be happy with this, and I suspect management also.