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Agree, and business growth is beating the market at a time when there are worries about government contract budgets. This is when coming from a smaller base with big contracts in the bag is a good thing.

The stock is breaking out of its consolidation phase, new high today.

Https://x.com/nnpclimited/status/1804644987688083893?t=LoJA6jNRzN8cFtceg6Xflw&s=19

Looks like August completion is quite likely, so possible September commissioning of ANOH. But won't count chickens until OB3 is actually confirmed completed & operational. Might take until October or November. Better late than never.

This isn't a penny stock, nobody here can ramp this even if they wanted to

I stick with my £40 target price, see you there in 12-18 months time

Agree. The market is mispricing PLUS big time. It will wake up one day and double and more. In the meantime, we are paid handsomely to wait.

The US futures business is growing really nicely too.

Btw CMC reported good numbers today.

PLUS is now my largest position and I don't go small. See you next time at £40 for beers!

Inflation is running at >30%, so the real return on government debt denominated in Naira is still negative despite very high base rate, which is why investors continue to look to the equity market to protect capital. The currency will continue to depreciate in line with the inflation differential to the USD, approximately, although there are various dynamics at play here. The aim of the government is to bring inflation under control, move to a position of positive real rates, and thereby attract capital flows and stabilise the currency, then a reinforcing cycle of further capital flows supporting investment and growth and further more stable currency. The government is trying to fix issues that the previous administration compounded over the last ten years.

As I see it, there isn't plausible mechanism or route to such a handover of 10% additional WI to NNPC, so the 40% is the only outcome. Why do I say this? It would require MPNU to sell 10% WI to NNPC, but why would they do this when it is Exxon's legal right to sell their Delaware subsidiary to whomever they wish? If necessary, they can enforce this right through the Nigerian courts. In any case, such an alteration would render the original SPA with Seplat null & void. Not to mention the sale of WI to NNPC would have a cost, but NNPC is broke and can't pay for such a purchase. The government needs the transaction closed ASAP; they need immediate investment in regenerating production, because production today and tomorrow is far more valuable than a long wait to purchase a 10% additional stake with money they don't have while production dwindles. So frankly, this rumour of a sale of 10% WI to NNPC sounds utterly absurd to me.

Agree, some profit taking is healthy and allows new investors in at a more appetising level. We need more shareholders in SEPL.

DEC looks interesting although is very leveraged. I'm actually diversifying away from O&G, my current top position (after SEPL) is PLUS500, which sits on a pile of cash, pays a healthy dividend, is buying back a lot of stock, and has a fast growing business focused on disrupting the US commodity futures market, with plans to list on NASDAQ in 2025. I would wager it is offers a low risk 50-100% gain with a 12-18 month outlook and is not exposed to commodity price unknowns and actually generates more cash when VIX is high.

I am reconsidering my target price. I took 20% profits on Friday, but there's more upside here at a low level of risk.

In the past, SEPL traded at the 10% dividend yield level, which was a minimum, namely when sentiment for the share or sector was poor. With ANOH operational and dividend paying, and MPNU consolidated, i.e. by end 2025, the company will be paying out 40 cents of dividend (gross) on my estimate, which I consider a low ball estimate based on everything we know and have been told by management.

40c = 29p in the pocket (net of withholding tax)

Simply, on a 10% yield, that = 290p share price.

That is a sensible way of looking at it, conservatively.

When the share price achieves 290p, I will need to think harder and consider upside scenarios, such MPNU production recovery (low risk), development of LNG for export (medium risk), or materially raised payout ratio (low risk).

290p is a fair level in my view, backed by dividend yield, with upside from there on the table as management delivers on the plan.

There has been speculation that NNPC will be raising its stake in these assets, such that SEPL reduces its interest to 30%.

Actually, it has been pointed out in the media that the government has been talking about NNPC REDUCING its stake in such blocks, not raising its stake, as NNPC is financially constrained and has not been able to meet its commitments as a partner in production investments, thus constraining the sector.

I know for a fact that the acquisition of further ownership in these blocks by operators has been raised by various stakeholders, including SEPL. My impression was, however, that this was some way off from actually happening. I am speculating now, this might be on the table sooner, given the financial pressure on the government to raise capital more quickly and accelerate drilling activity. If SEPL was given the option to acquire further stakes from NNPC at similar valuation levels, it would obviously be highly accretive. Pure speculation, as I have not heard this from any reliable source, and it flies in the face of current rumours that SEPL will be acquiring less, not more, of MPNU.

As I said, for the time being, unless we hear otherwise, one has to assume no change in terms.

Until we hear from the company itself, I would assume nothing has changed with the terms. It is unlikely that terms have been altered with agreement from SEPL without an RNS by now, unless they have been unilaterally altered by Exxon, which would be contractual breach. I suspect there might be more to this story and it might even be in SEPL's favour. Unfortunately we won't know until we know, so it is best to assume no change unless we hear otherwise.

I second that. This board has been the most civil and useful of all the boards I have seen to date. Congratulations to all of us who are banking some handsome profits today. Best wishes to all of us who remain invested for further upside on the back of solid fundamentals.

Traded volume has picked up massively, a few hundred thousand shares traded in the last couple of hours alone. We all knew this was coming, so honestly speaking, this level of interest is surprising and very exciting.

(Bloomberg) -- Nigeria’s state oil company said it reached an agreement for the sale of Exxon Mobil Corp. oil and gas assets in the country to Seplat Energy Plc, clearing a hurdle that brings a two-year impasse closer to a resolution.

In a post on X Thursday, Nigeria National Petroleum Co. said a “settlement agreement” had been signed “regarding the proposed divestment of a 100% interest in Mobil Producing Nigeria Unlimited to Seplat Energy Offshore Limited.” 

The deal still requires approvals from the regulatory agency - which had indicated an August deadline, and the Nigerian President Bola Tinubu, to be concluded. There was no regulatory statement by Seplat.

Seplat had agreed to pay $1.3 billion for Exxon assets in Nigeria in February 2022, that would almost quadruple the independent’s output to more than 130,000 barrels a day. However, the transaction was approved and then reversed by former president Muhammadu Buhari.

Https://x.com/nnpclimited/status/1796084919182979404

Congratulations everyone

Great to see buyers coming in at much higher levels. This shouldn't be trading less than 70p today, which is 10x March 2025 EBITDA. By next year we should be looking for >100p.

Particularly pleased with the 10-12% EBITDA margin guidance for March 2026, which is where they should be. That would equate to >£10m EBITDA, which on a 10x multiple = £100m EV. Close to 3x upside.

It depends on the jurisdiction. Nigeria imposes the tax, not the UK.

It's always been the case.

Withholding tax of 10% on dividends in Nigeria

All of my figures/forecasts in posts refer to net or gross regarding dividends. It has always been the case.

In case you haven't seen this, many statements from these two on closing the acquisition...

https://x.com/senlokpobiri/status/1795720094602916310?t=9GzHVVW4SvXbj3OrNDOGww&s=19

We remain dedicated to the #RenewedHope reforms in the energy sector, driven by Mr. President's stir with a focus to making Nigeria’s oil and gas sector globally competitive by focusing on tax incentives, local content compliance, and reducing contracting costs and timelines.

I emphasized on this when I joined the Executives of ExxonMobil @exxonmobil, led by President Liam Mallon, on a courtesy visit to President Bola Ahmed Tinubu at the State House Abuja, discussing critical issues concerning our petroleum sector, and I had been directed by Mr President to sort out the issues of divestment between ExxonMobil and Seplat, prior to now.

We have advanced in stage on the settlement of all issues between the oil giants and hope to finalize that in the shortest possible time. On the issue of decommissioning, I hint the fact that the PIA has been a guiding framework for the Ministry in handling it and issues on abandonment with respect to global best practices

Sen. Heineken Lokpobiri Ph.D.