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Central Bank has just raised interest rates by 400bps, a very orthodox move at stabilising the currency. Nigerian fixed income is rallying. This administration is serious about fixing the mistakes of the past ten years. Can only be good for the private sector with a long term view. Surely MPNU sign-off is next?

To be clear, they were not explicit on the run rate as per January, but implied it was around that level. If growth to their 2026 target is more straight line, end 2024 run rate will be around $115m, end 2025 will be $180m, end 2026 will be $250m, which is their goal. Profitability will be lower I gather. Assuming 30% EBITDA margin once stabilised, the implied profit contribution will be material enough, albeit probably not transformational. We don't however know how conservative their $250m revenue goal is. It might be very conservative.

The information was in a Jefferies note shared with me.

As per the below statement at Interims, the US biz basically launched around mid last year, which is how I read it.

So it is implied that between mid last year and January the US biz grew from annual run rate of few million to circa $50m. That is already high single digit % of group revenues. I assume that to reach the $250m target by end 2026 this business will need to more than double this year (say to $120m), which is quite possible given progress so far.

So the revenue contribution is already not immaterial on a monthly basis.

"Strong progress made in accessing the US futures market, representing a multi-year growth opportunity for Plus500:

o B2B Institutional opportunity - continued to develop strategic position as a B2B market infrastructure provider, through the onboarding of various regulated introducing brokers in the US futures market, supporting institutional clients with brokerage-execution and clearing services

o B2C Retail opportunity - recently launched 'Plus500 Futures', a new B2C intuitive proprietary futures trading platform. This is in addition to last year's launch of the 'TradeSniper' platform, which now also offers trading on 'event-based contracts'"

Sorry $50m as per January, according to what management have been telling people

The US business has an annual revenue run rate of up to circa $60m as per January, apparently, which is a ramp up since end June which is why it doesn't appear as a great contributor yet, and equates to 5-10% of annual revenue as of today. I would like to know the monthly growth trajectory. I suspect it could grow 50-100% this year to a run rate of $90-$120m by end 2024 which would put the target of $250m easily within range. It is already a material business but more importantly it is growing very fast.

I would have liked to have seen more disclosure on the US operation. Jefferies said that management have been talking to institutional shareholders about ARPU of US clients being higher than OTC and that they already have a few thousand clients, also that the B2B side is contributing around $50 million at present, presumably revenue - the aim is to reach $250m revenue by 2026, so 6x what they have today. My view is they should be more explicit about what the US business is generating currently on a monthly basis therefore ARR.

I would also have liked to have seen a higher cash dividend than was announced given all the cash they hold and also some treasury shares cancelled. I guess this is why the share price has fallen today - profit taking on mild disappointment after a strong run of the share price. I expect the share will continue to gently nudge upwards from tomorrow onwards, thus continuing the trend, as progress is still positive and the stock is much too cheap.

Investec initiated coverage of Pphe Hotel Group Ltd. with a recommendation of buy.

PT set to 2,820 pence, implies a 125% increase.

I don't disagree Lemonade, they have to continuously attract new users, but to date they have done that. What are your figures on the LTV/CAC ratio?

It's not a growing business in the UK, but in new markets they are definitely growing, are they not?

About "fleecing users" with "huge spreads" - I have been told their spreads are tighter than the competition, do you disagree? I consider their platform structurally competitive in this regard, but tell me if I'm wrong?

Sounds like a sob story, Savaloy, because you lost some money, for a short period of time. I don't agree with your assertions about PLUS burning anyone. The simple truth is, this was/still is a relatively new business model so regulation was running to catch up with it + assess what should be a fair level of oversight and restriction, and the firms themselves were developing with regard to their disclosures and risk management protocols. Nobody burnt anyone.

I don't care much what this board thinks I care more about what the institutional market thinks because they are driving the volumes and price level. The institutions have always had concerns about the longevity of the business model given relatively short life horizon of customers as well as big swings in customer P&L, not to mention fear that regulations could be further tightened.

That's fair to some extent, but none of them are talking about being burnt or abused by the company.

My view, for what it's worth, is this company is misunderstood by the institutions for a few reasons, but that will change and further drive re-rating:

1. Customer retention and duration of ARPU has been improving over the years, not declining: in 2018 and 2019, customers over 1 year old contributed 73% of revenues, today that has risen to 85%. Contribution from five year old or more customers has risen from 8% to 32%. The institutions haven't yet appreciated the stickiness of this particular business - yes active customers trade less over time, but they still trade. PLUS has the best technology, which differentiates them in terms of retention and trading activity. PLUS also has consistently drawn in more new customers. Those things are the hidden secrets, which the market will appreciate eventually. Conclusion: the business and its cash generation has longevity.

2. The busines is no longer UK centric, thus has regulatory diversification. Although anyway the regulator is not against people trading, especially experienced traders. Regulation is not an existential risk.

3. Their breakthrough in the US futures market is really exciting and gives them a further growth boost with significant runway and further diversifies their revenue stream, geographically, regulatory wise, and customer-type wise.

This is a developing investment story and will, ultimately, be appreciated by the institutional market. If you don't think it's a good story with good management, you should divest.

If you like my assessment, consider looking into SEPL and JET2, two other misunderstood, low-medium risk, highly cash generative businesses.

On value traded of £460,000

177p GBP equivalent share price

The LSE line is a 20% discount. Note also that the official FX rate is now more or less in line with the parallel rate, so this is genuine discount.

This is going at Nigerian pace. Still, must be just around the corner!

I think if a minimum volume is not breached according to exchange rules the share price reverts to the opening level, so the last few days it has been closing flat

The big news this past few days has been the exchange rate, which now trades in line with the black market rate. The FX demand backlog has almost been cleared. This has been almost ten years in waiting. Terrific news for Nigeria. FDI and portfolio flows should start to return. It's such a big policy delivery, the MPNU sign off pales in comparison.

Who's been burnt and how?

In my view the UK institutional market doesn't believe their business model has longevity, but it is their loss, especially as the business diversifies geographically and leverages its technology in the futures market in the US.

We must be extremely close to all being revealed. I'm very very keen to see this Prospectus.

I suggest you or they email Loungers about it, they are extremely responsive. Also, your friend won't get two unless he asks for two.

Little downside alongside plenty of upside in this share as rates normalise. EBITDA growth relative to capex has been really good over the years and continues to be.

For a share that has made Investors so much money since IPO, this chat board is surprisingly quiet

Agree Trek. If Roger has his way, MPNU will be a sizeable exporter of LNG to the world on long term contract. So much to look forward to, meanwhile we are paid to sit on hands while picking up an 8.6% divdiend yield paid quarterly!

A low valuation multiple is much closer to the truth, with SEPL. Actually it is truth. These production figures can be sustained.

Finally, SEPL's midstream gas business is an infrastructure business, de-linked from the price of oil. This business has decades of reserves and delivers to commercial customers on long term contracts at a negotiated yet fixed price levels. This business, as it grows, provides a stable income stream, which deserves to be valued at a much higher multiple than an oil E&P. The future upside of MPNU is taking MPNU's shallow water gas reserves and exporting them under long term contract at fixed prices as LNG. This business could be worth a fortune, if it materialises.

I've been looking fairly closely at North Sea operators for a long time, as there are many flagwavers out there for these stocks. While I don't deny that there is value around, I don't see the risk-reward stacking up any better than SEPL. I'm often told by fans of North Sea oil that SEPL is interesting but the Nigeria risk is a problem for them. I find that interesting, as from where I'm sitting I see quite the opposite.

My points would be:

- North Sea oil suffers from ongoing political risk - the windfall taxes imposed on operators have been phenominal, and we are about to enter a Labour government who are vocal about their hate for the fossil fuel industry. I only see risk of further taxation ahead, removing a big part of the Free Cash Flow argument for these stocks.

- The North sea and its producers have short lifespans - they have little by way of reserve life, and without incentives to grow reserves. The tax and political system is against them, the ESG lobby is hammering them, and investors are not interested either. These businesses are managing decline; by nature they are a shrinking business. They can only be valued by DCF; multiples don't work. Truth is, they are limited life businesses.

- North Sea oil production is deep water and, most, being late life resevoirs, are complex in geology and extraction - these are real operational risks. We have have seen North Sea producers wiped out overnight because a resevoir has dissappointed catastrophically during the twilight of their life.

Whereas.... Nigeria, and Seplat in particular, in my view, have a much more attractive risk profile:

- The government of Nigeria is deeply incentivised to support growth in production, as oil represents the vast majority of fiscal revenue, and that won't change, not in our lifetimes. Tax incentives are designed to encourage reinvestment of cash generation into growing production; the tax system is therefore in support of industry growth and industry profit. The political risks are minmal.

- The security issue around oil is one about corruption and state complicity in this - this unhappy balance may improve one day, but it will not destory the industry, as key players are reliant on the industry's survival to steal from it. Currently, efforts are underway to incentivise those militias that steal to instead protect. We will see. SEPL, for its part, has a track record in localising employment opportunities in the vicinity of its operations to bring communities and mafias onside. They have a track record of success, going back years and years. Moreover, their AEP (pipeline) is secure transit infrastructure underground, much reducing any risk of pipe damage and downtime.

- SEPL's onshore assets have 25 years+ of life, multiples of North Sea, and without the complexity. MPNU's shallow water assets are shorter in reserve life but not complex either. These assets offer growth in production, not managed decline. A low valuation multiple is much closer