In my view it's nothing to do with trading, it's the noise with Odey. Odey didn't sell all of their stake because Plus500 is their highest conviction holding so they wanted to retain a significant position in proportion to funds remaining, which includes hefty personal investment in their own funds.
If they wanted to sell all of the stake Plus500 would have taken it. That they didn't says something.
This is a fabulous opportunity IMO.
Covenant fixed. Another big step taken on the path to rehabilitation.
That was from Berenberg
Outperformance drives upgrades to outlook
● Our view in a nutshell: This morning, PPHE delivered a strong H1 trading
update, demonstrating continued momentum, and upgrading its outlook
for FY23. The strong trading conditions and forward booking momentum in
Q1 have been maintained through Q2 and into Q3 across all main market
segments of leisure, corporate travel, and meetings and events. As a result,
PPHE expects H1 revenue to be more than 14% ahead of the same period in
2019 while now forecasting FY23 revenue of at least £400m and EBITDA of
at least £120m (c8% ahead of our expectations). We continue to believe that
PPHE’s current discount to NAV cannot be justified and that its core markets
will continue to be resilient as has been evidenced by this strong trading
update.
● Strong trading conditions continuing: The strong trading conditions and
forward booking momentum in Q1 have been maintained through Q2 and
into Q3 across all main market segments of leisure, corporate travel and
meetings and events. The company expects H1 revenue to be £177m and
revenue per available room (RevPAR) of c£109, which is 14% and 17% ahead
of H119 respectively. Regionally, the UK and the Netherlands have continued
to be the strongest performing regions while Germany, which had a slower
start to the year, has seen an improving trend in bookings through Q2. With
the company now entering its strongest trading period, forward booking
momentum remains encouraging with the revenue contribution from
recently refurbished and relaunched properties expected to be significant.
● FY23 outlook upgraded: With respect to the outlook, as a result of the
stronger-than-expected performance the group expects to deliver FY23
revenue of at least £400m. Furthermore, despite the impact of operating
cost inflation, and in particular energy costs, PPHE expects to deliver
EBITDA of at least £120m, corresponding to an EBITDA margin of 30%.
Looking on from FY23, management expects that as the impact of elevated
energy costs diminishes through FY24 and beyond, EBITDA margins should
begin to normalise, notwithstanding the broader cost inflation that has been
absorbed over the last 12 months.
● Changes to estimates: We adjust our estimates on the better-than-expected
performance, raising our FY23 revenue and EBITDA estimates by c8-9%, and
forecasting revenue of £401m and EBITDA of £120m in FY23. Furthermore,
we also forecast additional margin normalisation in FY24 and FY25,
increasing our EBITDA estimates by 15% and 17.5% respectively. This drives
larger upgrades at the EPS line.
● Valuation: Based on the last EPRA NRV estimate of £25.17, PPHE currently
trades at 0.42x NAV, which we think cannot be justified.
Room rates are flying in London, which will be supportive of PPHE's growth and profitability. Their renovation of assets in Croatia will be income producting this summer and further respositiong projects are planned. Additional value being realised over the next 12 months with the opening of Hoxton by mid 2024. Share price has underperformed the wider sector by 30%+ this year. At the end of the day the core asset base is London which in my view has an appreciating and defensive income projectory. BUY.
Thanks Christo. The award doesn't seem to give a clear indication of actual spend, more of a range from 0 upwards, perhaps I am misreading it, and TPX is one of many, most of which are small unheard of suppliers. I'm skeptical about the value of this one.
I don't find any new Kent related contract awarded to TPX. Please provide a link.
Thought I would point out that the liberalising (still in progress) official Naira exchange rate has stabilised a little below the black market level having overshot it a few days ago (reaching almost 800 NGN to USD). We are at 752 today, versus the black market rate of 773. This is a 38.6% devaluation since beginning of June. The GBPNGN rate is 955. The bulk of the pain in readjustment has been taken. Now it just leaves the backlog of FX in the queue to leave the country to be satisfied, which will take a while but is in progress.
With this adjustment, the function of Seplat as a channel through which to offshore currency is basically over! Practically, this means fewer buyers of the local Nigerian line for non fundamental reasons, and fewer sellers of the LSE London line. This is only a good thing for shareholders of SEPL.
Meanwhile, SEPLAT NL has been ticking up on reasonable volume and now stands at NGN1399.80, which is equivalent to GBP1.46, which is a 22% PREMIUM to the London line. This is noteworthy! There are still buyers of Seplat locally because the fundamentals are good - and they are paying a premium for it!
This makes perfect sense. The LSE line is trading too low based on fundamentals. It will have to rerate.
Dirt cheap, cheaper even than a mid cap E&P co but is actually a good business that makes more money when there is volatility in markets and should sustain this cash flow for years to come. Good chance of breaking into the US options market too. Their tech platform has proven itself over many years. I'm happy for more buybacks to a point and then I would like more in dividends for income.
Good news for users of the ii platform. I received this today:
Cash Distribution
Terms: Approximately USD0.918491 in cash for each share held
Pay date: Upon receipt
Napster Music Inc has announced a Cash Distribution, whereby Holders will be issued with approximately USD0.918491
in cash for each existing share held.
The cash will be issued to entitled shareholders upon receipt from the company.
Your account will be updated upon receipt of the proceeds but in some circumstances there may be delays in the
proceeds being credited to us. Please allow 10 working days for your account to be updated.
Where are your FY results TPX?
Let's hear management's plan for returning margins to double digit levels and not waiting till 2025!
For those that may not know, I thought I would point out that when SEPL talks about circa 55kboepd production it refers to oil + gas equivalent. The issue with the gas side is that pricing in Nigeria is capped by the regulator, which makes the gas business not very profitable. Liberalisation of the industrial domestic gas market has been discussed for a long time but hasn't happened, but that could change with this new president.
Anyway, the point being that the vast majority of SEPL's cash generation derives from the sale of oil, which is currently circa 30kboped. This perhaps puts into perspective why ANOH's production (to SEPL) of 10kboepd is very relevant (a one third increase), and also why MPNU is so transformational (3x SEPL's current production).
What is more, MPNU has huge gas reserves that are unutilised which, given the offshore location, could be processed as LNG and shipped to Europe with relative ease.
So in summary, at the moment oil is the key driver and even ANOH is a step change in production for SEPL, while MPNU would be 3x; meanwhile the reforms unleashed by the new government increase the likelihood of gas market liberalisation that would allow SEPL to properly monetise its current gas production which would be very material to profitability for SEPL; while further out if MPNU closes there is the prospect of LNG production for Europe at a low capital cost.
These are all "hidden value" currently and not at all appreciated or realised by the market.
Yes you're right, I had read that too about him being ex Exxon and wonder if it will help. But in any case he's pro private sector and is willing to implement big bang reforms, which is a huge change in itself from just a couple months ago. Exciting stuff.
Don't underestimate ANOH, which is actually already owned and coming on stream soon. This is a certainty, unlike MPNU, and will produce 10k boe/d to SEPL. It is not small, and all the capex has been sunk. This will be very cash generative and SEPL has nothing to do with the cash flow but give it to shareholders, IMO.
I would think about MPNU in terms of free cash flow and dividend. MPNU produces around 35m bbl annually. FCF should be at least $10/bbl at $75 oil, perhaps a lot more, I don't know. The transaction price tag is $1,600m as per 1 Jan 2021, so adjusted for FCF since then (I'm guessing at least $400m annual) the cost to SEPL will be closer to $800m. I would hope the market would asribe a value to this asset of at least 2.5x FCF, which would be $1bn, i.e. an incremental $200m to the price paid on deal closure. But every year that passes, $400m of the debt can be paid down and this value will be transfered to the equity, i.e. after two years $1bn value all to SEPL equity. That is more than the market cap of SEPL today. This is one way to look at it.
The other way might be impact on dividend yield. They may decide to keep the debt and pay out half of the FCF and reinvest the remainder in growth. Paying out half of that FCF minus cost of debt would be around $150m annually. That would be a huge increase in the dividend, almost 3x. That would certainly double the share price in my view.
But before all of that ANOH will definitely complete and will move the share price, so I would focus on ANOH before MPNU.
Hi, could someone help provide the contact email of someone at Napster or Algorand or the administrator of the scheme so that I can claim my tokens? Interactive Investor have told me that they are writing off the shareholding I had and have not been in touch about tokens.
I need a contact for someone who can help me claim.
thank you for any assistance
I believe the heavier buying and run up of the share price is on the realisation that the new government means business with regard to liberalisation (and is following through very quickly) and that the presidents advisory council, which is advising on these matters, has recommended that NNPC tone down competition with the private sector and that the private sector be encouraged to drive O&G sector growth. Gas prices could be liberalised much soon now too. Note the Dangote refinery will consume half of Nigeria's oil output soon, which essentially means that Nigeria can more or less double production within its OPEC quota - this needs the private sector to ramp up investment and it appears Tinubu is all for that. There is also an LNG export opportunity he wants to harness. There has been a transformational pivot in policy making in Nigeria - it is slowly dawning on the market.
Two potential SEPL-specific catalysts are the MPNU deal and completion of the ANOH refinery's gas truck line that has delayed its completion - good news on either front will move the share price a lot. Both are game-changers for cash generation and the dividend.
Pleasant thoughts to go into the weekend with
Bought more today. I thought the stock was cheap at 1900p a couple of months ago. We're at 1500p today but with 8% fewer shares. Bargain, especially for a company that typically does well in volatility when everything else is going down.
Events on the ground are moving fast. Yesterday the CBN let the currency devalue by 21%, and this morning a further 3%. There's still more to go but this is a huge and long awaited move by the new president. Nobody really believed it would happen so soon. Very exciting for Nigeria.
The immediate implication for Nigerian equities is that this signals much improved macro economic and fiscal management which will be a huge boost for future growth prospects. As the Naira falls and exchange controls are removed the country will also attract FDI and portfolio investors again.
With regard to SEPL, their local costs immediately fall in USD terms, a short term boost to profitability.
More than that, however, this represents Nigeria's opening up to market forces again, which is positive for their gas business, their acquisition of MPNU, and investment outlook generally.
This is very exciting stuff.
Full year results out next week. Hopefully with much more clarity about returning to 10%+ margins. Coming from a very low base - stock price can only rise from here, IMHO.