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Unless the board strongly recommended it, I personally wouldn't accept a formal offer of anything less that £10 a share. If an offer is being made both parties know the true value. I might critise the board sometimes but they know what the compounds are worth if they work.
If a formal offer of a license or T/O is made the board have to notify the shareholders and they may recommend to accept or reject the offer based on what they think what is a fair price.
If the BOD continue to sit in their ivory tower letting the share price take a hammering and their p%ss poor record of communication they might get a surprise how many shareholders vote to accept a low ball offer.
The comment at the October ‘23 IMC meeting was perhaps telling “ Our business model emphasises licensing our programmes at, OR EVEN BEFORE the early clinical stages.”
Possibly a structure could be a licence but with the licencee also taking an equity stake in SAR to allow future TO should 1801/2 pass future trials....this could resolve concerns on SARs part of a TO on the cheap at this time but protect the licencee against heavy future royalty payments after success in Phase 3..
I think the TO window is closing rapidly and once a licence is negotiated, then, it's closed. The reason being, is why woukd a pharma buy a small biotech if there was already a legally binding agreement for their compounds. They'd be buying something they had no control of. I'd be happy to see any evidence of this ever happening same with an equity company buyout. These usually happen when there is a proven revenue stream and usually when the patent expires. Again, if anyone knows where this happened before, I'd liked to read about it. The tyk2 landscape is getting more crowded and some 2nd gen tyk2 will hit the markets way before 1801/2 does. So this narrows down the field too. It also validates the neck gen tyk2 compounds.
Interesting to hear SOG saying that he think we'll get a licence at the end of 1a as this goes against everything in the recent RNS but then, they would say that, wouldn't they. A TO at the end of 1a would make perfect sense because the overall value is less without proven immune response data that 1b will give us. I know most here bang on about the science but I'd bet my mortgage that other than John Reader, the rest of the board are thinking this way. If the compounds are good they will live on but you don't start your own company for altruistic reasons. Do the rest of the board will have thought about what success means and for me, that is shareholder value.
Laz and Potnak, thanks for the comments, I personally agree that Tim and John's preferred exit plan based on stage of life would be a TO, however with the SP in its current range I don't think they would accept what might be on offer. I feel a licence for 1801 is probably most likely. With a need then to move 1802 though trial, the licence might cover that cost but could then be in a similar situation to now albeit at higher levels, so price spiking on news then slipping. That was what prompted my thoughts on dual listing which could create some stability on the SP, extra fund raising for 1802 (or other projects) from new investors and an improved return in the mid term for PI's. For the record though a TO at a strong price is my real preference, I am not though convinced fair value would be obtained at this time. GLA
Interesting point - personally, I don’t see a requirement for dual listing as the investment case would be the same as here in the UK once de-risked.
I think the stated strategy of licensing is intact and I also think a TO would be welcomed.
I say this because no takeover would take place without safety and efficacy being demonstrated. Any buyer would need to show due diligence and respect for their own shareholders.
Also, I look at the age of the NEDs and of Tim and John. They must all have an exit strategy and I see no signs of succession planning within Sareum. They can keep going for a while longer yet but if the right offer came along I am sure we and they would accept it.
Only my take on things which I am throwing into the mix.
As for the sp improving and when to sell, the mms know that at this level, £1 per share would provide a 100% return and likely trigger some selling and/or slicing. This will enable them to retain control of the sp in the future as will RF warrants at £1.43 as and when they are exercised.
All remains good here for now and we should follow the news.
I don't really have a view on where Sareum are listed but we aren't far from the scenario you state. On the face of it SAR seem to he the perfect choice for a takeover. Small headcount, the NEDS would just walk away, as would Parker, i assume. John and Tim would stay on but with no other assets, it would be simple. However, With all compounds at different stages of development, we may not be ready to TO. IMO, Leggster's scenario is the most likely to happen. And although a licence for 1801, would be massive news, I won't give us the big payday that some of us would like. It's a conundrum, that is fast approaching, especially if you are getting on in age. Do you get out on the spikes or do you wait 3,4,5 years for the compounds to hit the market. Billion dollar revenues don't start until the drug is being prescribed.
One scenario, I have thought about and Tim also mentioned it a couple of times. Is when the Tyk2 compounds are licenced, they use the upfront to aquire a pre or early clinical compound, just like Sierra did. This could add some real value in a short space of time whilst the tyk2 compounds are being looked after with someone else.
We would need a market cap of around 10X our current market cap to list on NASDAQ and be recognised. Circa $500M is the average market cap of a NASDAQ listed company. We would just simply be overlooked on that index.
Also the regulatory burden would be way disproportionate to our size.
Something for a few years time, if SAR is still around.
Many of us are frustrated by the performance of the SP on the AIM. Let's assume for a moment that the 1801 trial is a success and we get a decent deal but not a T/O. Would anyone favour at that time going for a dual listing on the NASDAQ? Clearly there are costs, stricter corporate governance, GAPP compliance, some US presence, with SARs small size probably would need to start on the Nasdaq First North Growth Market rather than the main index. But could open up new investment opportunities. Could this be a strategy to hang on to SP gains following a licence and to reduce the SP attrition we see on the AIM that would probably happen again between milestone achievements.
Oral brepocitinib failed to meet its primary endpoint of Systemic Lupus Erythematosus Responder Index (SRI-4) change of 4 at Week 52
Priovant plans to continue progressing the program in indications outside of Systemic Lupus Erythematosus (SLE) given the drug’s favorable safety and tolerability profile, six other positive phase 2 studies, and active arm performance in this study
Hi SOG I had a look at this over Xmas and noted Priovant and Riovant but with cash to invest let’s hope safety is top notch and hopefully we will get investment after ph1a results
GLA
Https://www.grandviewresearch.com/industry-analysis/immunotherapy-drugs-market-report#:~:text=The%20global%20immunotherapy%20drugs%20market%20size%20was%20estimated%20at%20USD,USD%20117.46%20billion%20in%202022.
A link below pertaining to Priovant indicating the rationale for on licence by Pfizer.
Looks very encouraging to say the least.
Regards to all.
Good evening PC1954.
I am back in Suffolk now for a while, much better than being a nearly 700 mile drive from home.
Just a few thoughts l have below.
Beprocitinib was discontinued by Pfizer in 2022.
As we know it is a Tyk2 Jak1 inhibitor it was sold to Priovant.
Pfizer had another inhibitor Ropsacitinib which they developed being a Tyk2 Jak2 inhibitor.
Results were good with regards efficacy but l suspect greater adverse effects due to Jak2 contribution. This was also discontinued and sold/licenced to Priovant.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9959504/
If we look in the above link and scroll well down to 4.5, SAR20347 gets a mention. Although preclinical results are encouraging to say the least and of course at the time of this report 20347 was not involved in any clinical trial.
My guess is that Sareum may well become involved with another player at around end of phase 1a. This being the safety profile and is of the upmost importance. It is imperative that this is established first.
With the addition of biomarker results pointing to Indications that 1801 has the most potential to maximise effectiveness and maintaining a satisfactory safety profile then this would surely be the beginning of an optimum time to either on licence or attract investment.
I am certain that Tim and Co have nailed the Tyk2 Jak1 compounds ensuring optimum safety. They would have an idea of Indications that 1801 being an immunotherapy can potentially treat.
The aim then will be to identify via the biomarker results albeit relatively low patient numbers the Indications that 1801 is likely to achieve best in class.
One thing l do know is the amount of difference in inhibitors including Tyk2 Jak1,
There is no such thing as pure specific with regards to Jak1, 2 and 3 only selectivity and getting these right is by no means an easy task due to safety profile. Allosteric Tyk2 is also not the be all and end all as Deucravacitinib failed to meet its end points in UC.
Tim and Co appear very confident in their Tyk2 Jak1 compounds.
What would we do if we were in Tim and Co's position?
These are my thoughts.
Clearly we have no idea as to what is going on in the background and any information regarding this will not be relayed as would lead to too much speculation. Any news on this l believe will be released as and when an agreement or agreements have been made.
Took advantage of a top up yesterday limited by the maximum amount that can have in my ISA
I have a feeling that in April the SP will be somewhat higher than now. May open an ISA to a family member and add to this year.
Regards
My 1987 shares I bought showing as a sell
The trades showing at 50.85 are definitely buys.
Most that I know have also added more yesterday. Bigeasy and myself discussed mm games and short positions on the chatboard last week so no surprises this week when most of it has come to fruition.
Yesterdays spread of 48-50p was this tightest it has ever been I believe. Nobody could have made much profit with MM's relying on fees more than margin. There was an absence of daytraders with RF selling after hours - again. A cynic would observe that the selling down suits RF position and also suits Brokers clients - Collusion? I couldn't possibly say. Funny how they never take it up to make a market.
I am still standing by the mantra of no news is good news at the moment. If something had gone wrong in testing, we would be told about it by now. Therefore, the testing is running on rails. I took the opportunity of the drop yesterday to top up with some more shares - they are actually showing a slight profit at the moment (long time since any of my SAR shares were in profit). MM games? Something else going on? Who know. I am quite happy with my holding here, and am happy to wit further. I just wish that the Board would issue some self-promotional information to sign their own praises and tell the world what they are doing, and the potential benefits..
Looking at recent patterns I wonder if we will have some news shortly, recent patterns have been am attack on SP then buying, as we have seen today, hopefully mews incoming. GLA
No apologies needed PCS hope you had a great weekend , yes it is frustrating and I don’t get the mms making a market this is being manipulated to be below a penny which we basically are is a disgrace no matter what any spin anyone puts on it I’ve gone on about 1802 and again something the BOD should be being proactive about, time will tell, if they made what they say is the right decision with RF we will definately find out in the next few months with the next large tranche of shares being released unless we get a decent upfront payment from 737 or will it be a red herring again the BOD didn’t have any say-on something we have 27.5 pc ownership of or will the data data data from ph1a save the day and get us a deal
GLA
Thanks for your thoughts earlier, as usual all pretty concise - after attending the AGM, just hoping we would see a more proactive approach in 2024 - as the missus said still 11 months to go!
Are you back down this way now?
@ Gunner apologies I didn't respond to your weekend posts, visiting family - you made a couple of good points especially length of question time at AGM.
Anyway, all the best from yes a frustrated lth, but, certainly, not cracking as someone may have suggested in their post!
GLA
Given that the phase 1a trial started on June the 6th 2023, and there has been no negative news, is positive safety data now priced in?
That would be seriously depressing :-/
Sad to see below the 1p in old money being hit. It’s been a painful watch since the highs of 2021 which are now a distant memory although we seem further down road as now in trials.
Also a big trade at end of today. More RF selling or a nice buy
Https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9959504/#:~:text=4.1.&text=Development%20of%20oral%20brepocitinib%20has,hidradenitis%20suppurativa%2C%20and%20Crohn's%20disease.