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Not sure I follow your logic there, FunnyGuy. The pivot will come with news, which I suspect is still some weeks away (Q2/24). What might determine the short term direction of the SP will be volume. Thin volume and the MMs will walk the price down, but that will hardly constitute a "pivotal week". It will merely signify MM games and an attempt to flush out weak hands. Just my opinion, fwiw.
What makes the P2a study particularly interesting and exciting from an investment perspective is that whilst the average licencing deal for platform and discovery candidates in 2023 was $47 million and $55 Million respectively the average Phase 2 median upfront licencing deal in our sector was much higher at $310 million. Source JP Morgan. The link to the full report is below....
Good luck, Brighty
https://www.jpmorgan.com/content/dam/jpmorgan/documents/cb/insights/outlook/jpmorgan-dec-2023-biopharma-licensing-and-venture-report.pdf
Although more applicable to 1802 it is worth having a quick read of link below regarding MTD.
https://www.pharmaceutical-technology.com/features/fda-drug-dosage-optimisation-guidelines-signal-clinical-trial-reform/?cf-view
Coming i think. Whatever your opinion of where you think this price is going, i think this week will indicate if its going to be up and getting to 100p or down and going to 10p.
For those of you heavily invested, good luck. I am happy to wait on sidelines and if i am wrong i move on
With all respects to Edison l doubt they could differentiate between phase 1b and 2a
May well be a phase2 SDC1801 in a very short while.
Just an enlightened here.
What is the advantage of phase 2a over phase1b?
There is a degree of similarity in the to a certain extent both these trials achieve the same thing.
Effectively proof of concept that the inhibitor is or will likely provide a viable therapeutic treatment for Psoroasis.
Phase 1 trial establishes safety profile.
Phase 1b small number of patients up to several 10's
Can be no increase in therapeutic treatment, basically no exceeding 300mg per day. I doubt we would need anywhere near 30 mg per day anyhow for Psoriasis.
Phase 2a similar number of patients as to Phase 1b. Proof of concept.
Phase 2b, a larger number of patients normally around a couple if hundred. Increased dosaging v effectiveness here. The purpose of this Phase is to establish statistical data ( accuracy is related to the magnitude of count) that will indicate to a certain degree not only the tolerability, safety, but also efficacy.
When all proceeds fine then progression to phase 3 typically involving 1 to 2 thousand people.
At this stage, we are looking at long term effects and the evaluation of the compound continues dnd if this particular compound exceeds the safety and efficacy of the current standard of care, then apply for clinical approval.
Phase 2 by the very nature will have far more clout and add value as you have gone from phase 1 to phase 2.
Phase1b cab be put into progress znd whilst progressing plans can be made, via whatever means onlicence, partnership, or buyout can be decided on.
Regards
Apologies if a few mistakes as mobile phone misbehaving. It not allow me to read through.
What a charmer this Nik nak is...
You're spot on, Officemanager 👍
I too missed the indication of going straight on to phase 2a. The reason I missed it was that I took it to be a (hope-filled) aspiration, i.e. that 1b could be done over the second half of 2024 and 2a, subject - mind you - to funding etc., begun by year-end. Chairman's statements are the place to bang the drum. But was I wrong?
Thanks for the link HBD good to read over the Edison report again, it comes across if data & safety are good then it's a wait and see if we can get a partner license deal otherwise it's more dilution, also moot point on P2a over 1b Edison does not differentiate and it's just down to wait and see. Feels like we are in a sidewards holding position when before we would have finished P1b this year....
I’m not even going to entertain you’re crap office I’ve got my answers from two other nice posters you can stew in you’re own arrogance.
NikNak222, I've filtered every name you come up with and will this one too, I won't be alone.
I hope you are right HBD. But, after the rollercoaster ride Sareum has had I’m being cautious with any nearer term share price predictions.
Have a good evening.
Bill
Officemanager it’s just twisted and bitter people like you that don’t allow genuine people to ask questions. I feel sorry for anyone that has to tolerate your arrogance in real life. At least there are some nice people out there that have answered the questions I had.
Evening Billy - although 75p would get the m/cap back to pre-RF levels, it doesn't take into account the progress made since then i.e. completion of SAD & food effect stages without adverse effects and the intention to jump forward to P2a rather than P1b. Each of those steps should add to that notional 75p per share so maybe £1 is nearer the mark.
Hmmmmmm, just don't start with the not so subtle de-ramping, that's why you often get slapped down.
Smart yes relatively new to this company hence the question and thank you for your answers rather than biting my head off as sometimes a lot of investors on forums do. Appreciated.
I also have 75p in mind. It’s where the price was before Riverfort came along, accounting for the 50% or so dilution since then.
If you are new, then this question is fine. However one should argue why it so much in the first place. If it was not for the death spiral finance by RF, we would have never seen such a pathetically low SP value. So the answer to your question is that with RF chapter almost closed, the share is moving back to its original value which in my view is anywhere between 60p to 75p.
Because the deal with Riverfort worked out badly and had the share price in a death spiral. Additionally Riverfort stopped the flow of funds to Sareum and they were at risk of going under. That is thankfully now behind Sareum, hence the share price lifting.
If they need a raise or potential partnership (hopefully) why the hell did this shoot up so much with the recent news regarding the RF?
They might not need to fundraise as the Edison Report (see below) notes, "we expect the company is likely to seek non-dilutive funding in the form of a partnership".
https://www.edisoninvestmentresearch.com/?ACT=18&ID=33426
Correction. Should have read: Yes, that is correct. They need the funds to plan for and then execute the P2a trial and fund business operating expenses in the meantime. I’m expecting a raise in the Autumn.
Yes, that is correct. They need the funds to plan for and then execute the P1a trial and fund business operating expenses in the meantime. I’m expecting a raise in the Autumn.
Reading the half year report again, are they in effect saying they need to fundraise again post top line results of the MAD?
Lesson learnt- read the chairman’s comments ! Grossly under valued , even more than I thought and we all know ( sub results) .