Member Info for potnak

Ben, it's been 19 weeks and 2 days since Feb 17th. JR said they had already started shem the RNS was issued. We can safely say we are 20 weeks or more. The end of July will be not far from 25 weeks. I initially read the RNS thinking that the 'dosing period' includes the wrapping up of the live testing before starting the revues of the data. I still do to some extent. As I said, it's deliberate obfuscation. SAR have always done it. I'm not going to tie myself in knots trying to work out what they really mean.

As a group, we should never allow the board to gaslight us. If 16 weeks isn't 16 continuous week, they should say that. Don't stick up for them.

I've given up trying to second-guess the timescales. I'm now waiting for Q4 data readout. The study restart RNS states: "the programme for Phase 2 clinical development. The dosing phase of the toxicology studies is expected to complete in mid-2026, with the full Phase 2-enabling package expected to be complete by year-end."

It appears that SP is saying that end of July is mid-2026. It's the usual obfuscation. To what end though. The delay of the release and content feels like they aren't telling us something.

You can argue what the exact mid year date is but it isn't 1 month into Q3.

I've given up trying to second-guess the timescales. I'm now waiting for Q4 data readout. The study restart RNS states: "the programme for Phase 2 clinical development. The dosing phase of the toxicology studies is expected to complete in mid-2026, with the full Phase 2-enabling package expected to be complete by year-end."

It appears that SP is saying that end of July is mid-2026. It's the usual obfuscation. To what end though. The delay of the release and content feels like they aren't telling us something.

You can argue what the exact mid year date is but it isn't 1 month into Q3.

I guess it all depends on how it is licenced. For monotherapy, there is no value. The data is average and probably not worth investing in. As a combo, it could be worth hundreds of millions. I dont think an upfront would be massive, maybe £3 to 5 million but don't forget that 37% of that would go to the ICR. However it would give enough time to make a deal on 1801 and 1802 and possibly move '1803' along. By that point. I reckon a few LTH would have made enough profit to sell up.

To answer HBD, question. Takeda paid $4 billion dollars for TAK-279 on phase 2 data. With another 3 billion in milestones! If 1801 can equal or better the efficiency. Who knows? Even with a 90% discount for risk. The phase 1 data could be worth 400 million dollars. Nimbus had already turned down a terms sheet of 850 million dollars but that was on phase 1b data.

We can make our own speculative valuations but for me. A safe a tolerable compound is probably worth between 500 and 800 million dollars before it starts phase 2. If it was for sale. If 1801 goes into phase 2, the price goes up, especially if data snapshots can be shared.

Agreed. A unicorn 737 deal would be to sell it, lock stock. Enough funds for the next 2 or 3 years and let the market decide the value of the company once dillution isn't a risk.

Yes, DP. There are 3 triggers that potential buyers will be looking at. Peer review published, funding and tox data packed. IMO, we'd need confirmation of 2 before fomo sets in. 1st one done and 737 providing funding could be the second. I'd buy on that.

I'm curious why this update couldn't have been published last week. It has done it's job but, and this is pure speculation but I'm starting to think it was delayed because something bigger is immenent. No mention of the cash runway, even though we are now 18 months? since the last fundraise. Did they hold off publishing becuase a 737 deal is almost done?

Yes, good enough for me. Also, SP is probably saving CNS and 1802 for future CC's.

I'd agree with that Ben. However, I did say at the time. Once the decision to pivot from p1b to P2 enabling tox study was made. We were on that path until we get to the destination. No shortcuts. A maximum of 5 months to go. Obviously, it could be sooner but Q4 is the deadline. Not saying buyout or even a deal even but we will have the tox study data. And that's all they have promised so far.

Without further upsetting Ben. We aren't quite there yet.

We know they can fail though. That's where this anxiety comes from. One abnormality, a lesion etc and the whole study is in doubt. I think the other problem, for me, at least. Is we have dared to dream before and had the rug pulled from under us many times.

I always try to stay on the fence, see both sides and try to rationalise the situation using the info we do know but anything out of the ordinary that we can't explain away, generally tips this board into negative sentiment.

The fact that the p1 data was published and Tim attended San Diego last week should give us some comfort. The CC initiative was a great addition to shareholder relations. IMO, They could have put out any old waffle and we would have known what it meant. We didn't get one for June, presumably for a valid reason. The joys of investing in early bio tech.

Lots of positives to pick out but a little nod or a wink from the board would be welcome.

More 'evidence' that there could be an offcial partnership being built.

Take a look at Receptor AI's linkedin post today. A new product launch for drug discovery. this line got my attention. "First up: TYK2 — turning basic target context into a structured evidence base and actionable design hypotheses.". I wonder if that's Sareum's SkiL data they are using?

I dont know. IMO, there is a lot they could say in a CC without breaking any regulatory rules. Tyk2 in oncology? Chk1 combo potential. A high level review of what the peer reviewed data actually means? It'll be a moot point, If one drops in the next few days but not getting one will just cause anxiety. We are we are though. Patience needed.

I dont know. IMO, there is a lot they could say in a CC without breaking any regulatory rules. Tyk2 in oncology? Chk1 combo potential. A high level review of what the peer reviewed data actually means? It'll be a moot point, If one drops in the next few days but not getting one will just cause anxiety. We are we are though. Patience needed.

Yes, we have become relient on the CC. Whilst the content is sometimes interesting, for me, it isn't the reason I think they are valued. It's the fact that a post about anything, is a nod to say, everything is OK, still on track. Not getting a CC is out of the ordinary and the board will know this might create anxiety amongst the shareholders so if nothing today, there must be a valid reason. If they have become an administrative overhead that SP doesn't want to commit to, fair enough but let's have one last one to set some expectations.

I mentioned the same a few weeks ago. The last CC seemed to be higight the value of AI drug discovery tools rather than the compounds that come from AI discovery. I thought a JV or something similar. Using Sareum's SKIL data and Receptors platform could result in a powerhouse drug discovery company. Not sure how it would work. Private equity cash and shares? Or a chunky upfront for 1801 and/737. The dillution would be acceptable if the combined company value suddenly jumped into the hundreds of millions.

From a timing point of view. I think we're still 2 or 3 weeks away from a 'study completed' RNS. thats if we get one at all. I think we will get a CC but it might just be waffle at this stage. Be nice if SP could show value for early CNS compounds. AI seems to think £45 million if the the compound had ind status. Were a long way from that though.