FWIW. I think something is being worked on now and this can't be finalised until we have clarity with 737. There is no technical or clinical reason why a CTA should take this long complete. I think it is being held back along with the trading statement that is due. I think we are reaching a pivot point that we will cross in the next few weeks. Licence\TO or Do P1 ourselves. Some cash or even a direction of travel for 737 would help us walk away from a bad deal.
Billy, When posters here say we're developing a Covid pill. We're not. We do have do have some good data if someone else wants too though. Got to get through P1 before we are developing anything. It could be 2023 before we even know indication what we trial 1801 in. P1 end of this year, if successful, P1a in a named indication early next year. A buyout or chunky licence deal will put us all out of our misery.
The deal was between CRT and Pronai. The board have stated on numerous occasions that they have no influence and that they get news when we do. Tim and board will be waiting for a red dot just as we are. Its my bigest bug bear on here (this and the covid pill myth). We aren't owed any expalantion from Sierra or GSK. If anything, the Sareum Twiiter activist should be targeting the CRT, it's their deal and they wil know whats happening. For the record, I think GSK taking it is a good move for Sareum but Billy Bunter is correct, SRA737 will just become part of the GSK pipeline and we'll be scanning the trading updates for news. More of the same but with a much bigger budget to progress.
I'm still of the opinion that SRA737 is part of a bigger picture that is being worked on. In terms of 737, Sareum are just a bystander. It isn't our compound anymore, we are not the major stakeholder and GSK doesn't owe Sareum shareholders any explanation. However, there is some intrinsic value in SRA737 for Sareum, even at this stage. Maybe £200 million? This value will feature in any TO negotiations and is possibly dependent on it. It's good that 737 has a new home or even a foster home but confirmation of the next steps could add some significant value here. I reckon August is going to be awash with news.
RE: Sierra Shareholder Meeting 1800 today29 Jun 2022 16:44
They could buy out of the agreement with CPF (and SAR) it would cost them at least the remaining milestones and maybe some on top to cover lost royalties. It might be an option worth paying for when you consider the royalties alone could be worth a couple of hundred million a year if it gets to market. The question is would the CPF go for it? I think they would, all profit made goes back into cancer research anyway. Sareum would largely be a bystander in a deal like this. This has been the very scenario I've been thinking of. Low cost, carrying less risk but big rewards if it goes to market.
RE: Sierra Shareholder Meeting 1800 today29 Jun 2022 12:08
I'm half expecting a yes vote in this meeting will start a chain reaction for everything else Sareum. I still think everything is hinged on this deal. Sierra, GSK, Gilead and by assotiation, Galapagos. I may be completely wrong and probably am but it would explain a lot of things if i am right. Very exciting though.
Aye but Dexamethasone is widly available, super safe, already standard care for many, many conditions and its about 8 quid a dose. 1801 would only be used on a subset of patients where Dexamethasone isn't a good fit. Not saying there isn't a need for 1801 in respiratory illness but I won't take Dexamethasones crown.
Yep, I agree Utar. The SP might go on a little run between now and Thursday. Of course, the news might not come by Thursday too but it definitely could be a buy-on rumour, sell-on news scenario. The FOMO will kick in at some point.
RE: Food for thought from Eric Topol28 Jun 2022 09:03
I have just had my second bout last week. Very mild, two days of feeling a bit off. It seems to be super transmissive though. I was in the Lakes with my running friends last weekend and 6 of them have tested positive in the last two days. I'm expecting more of them to do the same.
HBD I'd agrees with your TO stance. But as I said this morning. We don't need a TO to add value to the SP. We could easily get two licence deals worth billions in milestones and if SRA737 gets moving then each one of those could add £5 to the SP, even from here. That's why I think a 10 bagger from here is still an option, even without a TO. Realistically a TO now would be less that what SAR are worth or why do it? I'd stick my neck out and say every SAR investor will be in profit by Christmas.
Galapagos also have a TYK2 that has passed P1b in psoriasis but is a bit meh with only a 40% success at low doses. They are looking for some MA activity to kick start their pipeline again. Sareum’s TYK2 in next gen and hopefully free of the JAK issues with early TYK2 compounds.
Galapagos also has a dev partnership with Gilead who have two places on the galapagos board and Gilead, weirdly bought into Sierra when they had practically given away momelotinib to them for nothing. Why? Was it to get access to SRA737 as some here thought at the time?
And lastly, Galapagos are based in Belgium and we appear to have a HNWi based in Belgium too. Tenuous but I'm betting there is something real in there.
I agree with your timescales for getting to market but the sell price is relative to your personal buy price. If the sp gets to £10 the LTH in under a penny have 20 bagged and lots us will begin sell big chuncks if not all of our pots. I reckon there is a 10 bagger from here in a year to 18 months.
You are getting dangerously close to revealing actual facts, Billy. be carefull! :-). The GSK bid doesn't make sense to me. Momelotinib has been given fast track status in I think a 200 million per year market and has a potential 18-year patent. That should account for the 1.9 bn $ price tag right there. GSK\Haleon are in need of some quick wins and Momelotinib could start earning its keep relatively quickly. It also fits nicely into their blood cancer offering and pipeline. I get it. I get the value assigned to it. But where does SRA737 fit in? If it isn't factored into the value, why not? I think they will sell on or on licence it for use in a combo. No dev costs to pay but chunky royalties that could dwarf Momelotinib sales, IF it gets to market. Win\Win. I'm speculating, just like everyone else here but I don't believe that GSK or Sierra have assigned that much value to SRA737 mainly because it needs more trials (with combos) and that takes time and money.
Lolz, trying to work out what mid-year means. It is intentionally vague. 30 days on either side of June 30th is mid-year for me. I'd rather we get some other snippets of news to raise the SP to give a better base to build on before the CTA is announced. The tweets are designed to stimulate some interest. Just leave them to it.