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I have a feeling that JR and TM know that they have at least met the same level of positive biomarkers at the same Phase 1 stage as some other multi-billion dollar valued compounds. If the peer reviews confirm that and the Tox study indicates the compounds are safe for long-term dosing, then that's about as good as it gets for a phase 2 ready compound.

If we look at the psoriasis market forecast of $74 billion, that HBD shared a few weeks back. A 5% to 10% share of that market could value 1801 at $200 to $500 million at this stage. This isn't even best case scenario. Best case scenario is that the biomarker data can be read across to other indications. IMO, even the low estimates double if not triple the share price here, just on a licence.

The cash runway is a concern because as PC states. They always seem to leave these things until it almost to late. The ideal scenario is dosing completes, we get a lift then the peer reviewed data drops and we get a second lift. If that happens. The SP could be 40p, raise at 30p. £1 on a deal announcement.

Think my figure came from billy bunter. If still around, I believe he has over 3 million shares and some warrants. I have a spreadsheet with shares held in ISA and SIPP. I can plug in a share price or a market cap and it gives me my totals. I also have strategic sell points on there E.g. sell 25% on any spike etc. It helps with my thinking.

Re the possibility of a raise. A £1 million raise would add 5 million shares to the pot plus maybe another million in warrants. I personally believe that is acceptable to give the board options to walk away from bad offers.

Morning PC. The halting of the Tox study last Oct threw a big spanner in the works. They wouldn't have needed to raise if it wasn't for that. The way is see it. Is no deal for 1801 and 02 until the data package is ready. That just leaves 737 which is lower priority. Something might come from 737 but it would need to be soon, if not by late summer they will raise. I work on the assumption that there 156 million shares, if all warrants are taken\eligible. Think it was TM who said they were reviewing the existing warrants to confirm if all are still active. So that figure could be lower with scope to add 5 or 6 million. Might be a question for the board.

That's my point, Aber. All of us would prefer non-dilutive funding. We'd all prefer a complete buyout. However the board have stated they will need funds in H2 26, "prior to a partnering decision". That's all I have to go on so I'm expecting it. 737 is the only thing that could come before that but the language used when talking about it suggests the compound is still being touted around rather than in final negotiations.

Been here a long time, Panagean. Most of the emotional posts, positive and negative, are projections of the anxiety we all feel when we invest. Some just lay out that anxiety here for us all to see. I do it too but in reality. All we really have to go on is what the board tells us and in the case if funding. They have gone to great lengths to set our expectations there. We might not like it, but that is the reality. I personally think that there will be a mini spike on completion of the dosing. It's a significant milestone, we could also see the published data which could also give the SP a boost. My guess is, that's when they will raise. Hopefully at a price around 20p or higher. We shouldn't be surprised or criticise because they've told us it coming. Some will, of course, pretty sure DP will come along with his trio stories.

As I said earlier I would welcome the buffer it would give us.

I am only going on what they are telling us. IMO, they have been very clear on multiple occasions. I will concede that they could be just saying that but when\if it happens. I don't believe surprised. The original post in this thread and the FOMO one is questioning why no buying and rising share price. Again IMO. If I was looking to substantially buy, I'd wait to see if there was a fundraise over the summer before committing. I bought a few this week but have some cash for if there is a discounted raise.

Perfect timing for an HNWI to stump up £1 million. If the could do it at 20p, it would only dilute us by 5 million shares and may another million in warrants. The HNWI would probably get there cash back and more just on the back of them coming back. They could then sit on the warrants until a big payday.

I don't see a fundraise as a bad thing. You can't negotiate a deal when all the other party has to do is prolong the talks until you are desperate for cash. Raising funds in the summer could give them 18 months instead of 6. Enough time to walk away from a deal and start new talks, if needed.

Not pesemistic, "informed". They said it in the chairman's corner and multiple RNS. The below is from the last Edison report. "Ahead of partnering decisions"

Funded to completion of SDC-1801 tox studies

At current burn rates, we expect Sareum to be funded into H2 CY26 with sufficient liquidity to complete the toxicology study. Additional capital will be required in H2 ahead of partnering decisions for SDC-1801, with potential licensing revenues from SDC-1802 and SRA737 providing non-dilutive support.

Defo not the BOD. They use a Web design company. There is a certificate due to renue on Sunday. My guess is they tried to do it yesterday and had to roll back for some reason. Rolling back probably broke some dmarc and dns config. Now Google, safari and Firefox are thinking the site is compromised. The Web design company will probably attempt to renew the cert again tonight.

I don't think it is FOMO time just yet. As I see it, there are two drags on the share price. The data from the study isnt expected until the end of the year and any gains made on the back of the dosing completed could well be eaten up with a discounted fundraise. Honestly. I think the fundraise is pretty much nailed on. They've told us that's what they are doing. The dosing completion will hopefully kerp the discount to a minimum. Once done though. It's open road to a deal. FOMO can start.

Just checked on mx toolbox. Loads of security and dns errors. Hopefully it's a third part who manged the website and are fixing.

The platform they are hosted on, is probably compromised. Still red for me but if others are working. It might take a while for cached pages to clear.

Personally. I think the 16 week study was chosen for this reason in PC's post

"Study Design: While both look at hematology, pathology, and clinical chemistry, a 16-week study may include specialized recovery groups or be designed to specifically bridge the gap between sub-chronic and chronic toxicity for specific biopharmaceuticals."

As in they will have a recovery group to study as part of the data readout.

I guess another interesting thing here is the list of pharma companies already involved with Isomorphic, Eli Lilly, J&J, and Novartis. This makes them competition, but they are slightly behind in the development stages. If 1801 is to be licensed, it needs to go to a partner with deep pockets who is able to keep in front of this competition. Also, if the data readouts suggestd Phase 2 efficacy will be present, this might create a race scenario where every month spent in front is crucial.

Hopefully the news will focus the board. Somewhat.

I would imagine the 'maximum' dose given is probably in that 90 day window. Then some 'patients' would come off dosing while others carry on to the full 16 week term. You then have 2 group a to compare when analysing the data. One that reached the regulatory timeframe and another that went past that by a few weeks.

My point in all this is. By the end if this week or possibly next. They will have reached the primary goal of the study. The rest of the study will help with the data analysis.

I do still think we will need to wait for the data readout but I bet the potential pharmas are watching closely.

I use Google all the time and the revamp must have happened this afternoon. I checked this morning at it was the old version!

If what I posted last week is correct. Then this or maybe next week, mark a big point in the tox study. Where they will have reached the mandatory 3 month milestone needed for phase 2, the last few weeks are just padding and a chance to create some control groups for the data readout.

If what I posted last week is correct. Then this or maybe next week, mark a big pount in the tox study. Where they will have reached the mandatory 3 month milestone needed for phase 2 the last few weeks are passing and a chance to create some control groups.

A 5 to 10% market share of these numbers would translate to an rNPV valuation between £200 and £500 million for a phase 2 ready compound. Might be more if the jak bit comes into play. Am I saying we'll get that. No, but that's how these things are valued.