Member Info for potnak

I do wonder if the Publication of the p1a data is being sat on because the biomarkers seen in p1 indicate a high pasi score is achievable in phase 2 efficacy studies. Again. I don't know enough about this. You would need SOGs input but if yes, then releasing the data after tox study is complete will have more impact.

Laz, Bobbler. Below is an extract from the article I posted afews day ago. This was Nimbus tyk2. Not sure if a tox study was complete at this stage but they had offers of 500 and 800 million on phase p1b. Not a direct comparison but shows the potential value. They eventually got a 4 billion offer when phase 2b data was released.

We had a significantly limited set of Phase 1B data in psoriasis patients for TYK2 at the time, and we were now free to speak to pharma companies interested in our TYK2 program. There was some interest at the time, but not resounding. We were running out of money and out of time. We had a term sheet from one party that valued the entire program around $500 million, and then got another one, with certain strings attached for $800 million. These weren’t in the range we all believed we were worth, so we strengthened our spines and rebuffed these offers, pausing our BD process.

I would say 50 to 75p on tox study completion. That should be enough to get a licence deal for 1801 and 1802. That leaves 737. I'm still not sure why 737 has been bobbing around but the recent articles re HGSOC and patent extentions make it worth trialing. A deal on any one of those could take the SP over a pound. And font forget that is still a lower market cap than the all time highs here. Highs that the board didn't issue speeding tickets for. A licence deal for all 3 and it starts to get interesting.

A full buyout valuation is difficult to estimate because we don't yet know the indications for 737 and 1802 but 300 to 500 million woukd be a conservative estimate. £750 million for high end estimates. So thats say 2 to £5 per share. I'm not sure we are ready for a buyout just yet because there are multiple permutations of his this could go.

Past mistakes don't change the value of the compounds. If they're good, they're good. Not being in a good negotiating position could affect value though. And that means being self sufficient. Cash to keep the lights on is a bare minimum.

Yep, Utar. Can't have one without the other.

Whilst I still believe that the value of sareum could be £2 billion at the end of a successful phase 2 for 1801. For all the reasons PC gave, I just don't believe we will get there as Sareum. Sareum may carry on but the reigns will be handed over. I think SP tenure will complete when 1801,02 and 737 are all licensed. Job done. JR might stay on but the rest will cash in their chips as will most of us here. The board may even negotiate an off ramp for us. It is my belief that we aren't much more than a year away from that scenario. What value? Who knows. Pick a market value and apply the NPV discounts. £2.80 is certainly achievable, maybe even as much as £5.

The MTD thing was probably another reason the board were advised to run this study instead of doing p1b. If the study can show that multiples of the theoretical MTD is safe, then it should set a baseline for P2 trial dosing. Tweaking the carrier to allow for maximum absorption will also help. It dies beg the question why didn't they do this on the first attempt but that is water under the bridge. Week 10 next week.. Possible chairman's corner too. The CC is a, really good initiative, IMO. It's a way to say all is good without breaking any rules.

I think, happy to be schooled here but. A tox study can be failed, as we well know. The fail last year was procedural and something probably not anticipated. Essentially, each time the dosing is increased the risk of adverse effects increases. This isn't nessesarily bad but Sareum will need to prove that they can not only go past a theoretical MTD but go past that with a clear distance with no or low risk adverse effects. The longer we go without news, the better. I would love to know at what point with hit the theoretical MTD, maybe we already have?

OK, kat. Let's go with your scenario. They want to raise. What mechanism do they use. Is it Parker? Does he contact a broker friend of his. Maybe a small few orders are placed higher than the bid. The MMs grab the orders. Then what? A paid shill on here saying, "news is coming". This will rocket. That's at least 3 people involved in criminal activity. Surely TM and JR must know, and the NEDS? Getting quite serious now. Is that how this works? Or is it like you said. SAR are on many watchlists. The SP has been inching up since the last IM. FOMO is starting to creep in, no one want to get left behind. I mean, it is Thursday. Sareum love a good new RNS on a Thursday. If nothing happens at 11am. They can sell and wait for next week.

Desa, they have never said. Just. "We were advised". My guess is, it was a CRO. Probably advising that phase 2 ready would carry more value than phase 1b data. True, of course but as you can see on the nimbus article I shared. They had terms sheets offering upto 800 million dollars on phase 1b data. The only difference being that thier phase 2 was already underway at the time of the offer.

Hey kat or anyone else who hasn't seen this. Have a read of the article below. See if you can see the comparison to Sareum.

https://lifescivc.com/2023/11/darkest-before-dawn-a-story-of-biotech-optimism-in-a-tough-market/

Not word play at all. Most likely the study has already been paid for. There will be some contingency but, we know they will need to raise by the end of this year if nothing else comes in. IMO, They won't be any problems raising at 40 or even 50p. If they ace the study. Nimbus (psorisis) TYK2 was acquired for 4 billion dollars on phase 2b data. With cash, Sareum could be less than 2 years from that valuation. Work backwards and apply NPV discounts of say 90% tven at phase 2 ready, the value is still 400 million dollars. Add another 90% because we dont have a deal yet and that is 40 million dollars. Parker won't be worried about raising on completion of the tox study. The market will jump at it.

So unless anything has changed in the last 3 weeks. The plan is still the plan.

As for a raise, we know they will need to raise if other plans don't come to fruition. However, they have, again, reiterated that they have enough cash to complete the tox study.

My own personal thoughts are, if no deals are in the pipeline, they will raise on the news of the tox study being completed, and rather than seeing that as negative, I'd see that as good management from the board.

No leak IMO. Just lots of watchers trying to time an entry. The closer we get to dosing completed the risk/rewards balance moves. The sp is up 46% just in the last few weeks. I personally don't think you will be able to but for less than 50p once the tox study is done and 737 news could litterally drop at any point.

It's a difficult question to answer until we know if the tox study is firstly, completed and then the data. Successfully completed with good data should value 1801 at 45 million alone.

IMO, 1802 is dependant on the tox study too but a licence at phase 1 readyness could bring in a a decent £10 to 20 million upfront. For 737, who knows. The HGSOC market is projected to rise to 7 billion dollars and with current potential front runner bring intravenous. Sareums oral inhibitor has all to play for. If everything goes well. The SP could well be 75p to 100p by early 2027. Lots of caveats though.

To be fair. The next bit of news could be anything.

Publication of the 1801 phase 1 data

A deal for 737

An update on the CNS work

1802 negotiations?

Take your pick.

Maybe the rise is this. For those new here.

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/sareum-ltd_using-targeted-therapy-to-promote-a-pro-inflammatory-activity-7448012119004024834-8YiL?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_android&rcm=ACoAAARCcr0BtcRy5ZxKLBlULvdJ8i4LmNp2X3k

I hope when dosing is complete. They alert the shareholders. It didn't need an RNS. A chairman's corner will tide us over until the full data package is ready.

I had a bit of fun with AI today. I asked it to presume that 1801 is as good as Tak279 in psoriasis and to take into account the Nimbus deal of 4 billion dollars and all things are equal. With all relevant discounts etc. What could a similar deal be worth for a Phase 2 ready compound. The Nimbus deal was after a phase 2b, that showed efficacy.

It came up with 300 to 450 million dollars upfront with 3 billion in milestones.

Not saying it will be anything like that but this could be the highend of licence deals.

After nearly 15 years, you could say, I was emotionally attached to Sareum.

Agreed, PC but it is interesting as I think most retail investors learn to trade by reading Internet boards and that's how the myth perpetuates. This is one of the reasons the pro traders have an advantage over retail. They have generally learned the craft but bring on the shop floor as it were. The shenanigans now, isn't so much fraud, it's more to do with tech and transaction speed. I read a random. Tweet a couple of years back, done guy saying you didn't need a pension if you can build your isa to be 500k. Then you bottom feed. Multiple small trades, set a low target of say 10 x £5k trades. With a profit target of say £500 for day. As some as you hit your target. You get out of all trades and that's you fine for the day. That's £10k a month and you only risked £50k. When people ask here "why are people selling with so much potential" that's why. They hit their target for the day. Rinse and repeat the day after.