Member Info for potnak

With ASCO and AACR both happening in spring. The timing and impact of a deal could well land as a late breaking abstract submission. For ASCO, the deadline for submission has just passed, march 9th. I'm not saying this is what will happen but if you wanted a fanfare for your new combo trial. ASCO would be it. We are also near year end. For US based pharma, we should be looking out for the 10-k filing. If any mention compounds in combo with DDR. It could be a smoking gun. Not sure who it was but someone in this group used to monitor Sierras 10-k to see if funds had been allocated to 737.

Again. Not saying this will happen but spring is often the time when funds get allocated and abstracts get released.

1801 and 02 are both dependant on the Tox study, IMO. It would be nice if they acknowledged that dosing has started but I also understand why they wouldn't want to do that.

For 737. I don't know. I don't think there is doubt that in combo, it could be very useful but the patent is fast running out and without a patent. It will be hard to monetise the compound. There are ways to extend the patent life and I'm sure that JR is exploring these. Let's see if it gets a significant mention in the update.

CNS indication will need cash that we don't yet have, rightly so, it isn't a priority.

If this is 8p in May, it will be a massive bargain as we should be past the major dosing hurdles by then. Again, this all depends when dosing starts. Worth noting. To complete the dosing by the end of June. Dosing has to start this week!

This subject line has been overused since Tim (or was it Parker?) uttered the words years ago. But with the previous study being halted in week 4. Right now. No news, really is good news. The longer we go without an RNS girl 1801, the better.

My guess is, it wasn't the research facility at fault. Parker addmited there wasn't enough oversight on the project. So someone dropped the ball and reputationaly, if it was highlighted, Sareum wouldn't look very good either. Better to move on as quickly as possible.

NAV, the presentation will be dull. It's review of the finances to the end of 2025. We should find out how much we started this year with and the current cash burn. The accountants amongst us may be able to dig a bit deeper into the accounts but it should be clear enough for us all to understand. The other part of the call will be a summary of all active compounds and progress so far. There won't be any new news, this isn't the vehicle for news. Like I said yesterday, if they reiterate the cash burn and that there is enough to finish the study. We are still in the game until success or failure of the study.

Do you know how placings work, Colbalt?

They work something like this:

The company needs cash so they go to their broker and say we need cash. The broker says ok, how much. The company then says. Oh, I don't know. £3 million? The broker then laughs and says, in the current market, with this sentiment. The market won't stand for that. Don't forget that the broker would need to find buyers for all these new shares. Right now, I don't think the market would go for it.

There is zero relationship with the share price and the current cash in Sareums bank account. The SP could drop below 5p and Sareum, if we believe them would still have enough cash to complete the Toxicology study.

How placings don't work:

The company says, sh*t, the SP has fallen to 10p, we had better raise some cash from the market.

There could well be a placing towards the end of this year, maybe sooner if the SP spikes for some reason but right now. I'm expecting the company to reiterate enough cash to complete the study. If they backtrack on that. I will get my pitchfork and march to Cambridge with you.

JR didn't exactly say that, Colbalt. He was talking about the 'submarine' patent. The patent they logged for the capsule formulation. They kept the details private for as long as they could. That's when JR said something like "the world will know about it soon". He meant that the patent details would be there for everyone to see. It was clear, to me at least what he meant but some on this board heard something different and ran with it. I also got what parker said said when he uttered the often quoted "form an orderly queue". They are off the cuff remarks and we shouldn't read anything into them. This is why they don't say anything anymore. The facts are in the RNS. Make all decisions on those.

This pivot was the last big thing that annoyed me. IMO, yes they f**ked up. They raised almost £3.5 million not long after the P1a data was looking good. RF were also out and 737 came back in house.I'm pretty sure that p1b wouldn't have dented those funds that much but could well have lifted the SP when if data was released. By pivoting away from p1b to Tox study, they took away the option to top slice on the good news and then they by their own admission didn't monitor the cro well enough to spot that there was an issue with the delivery method. It's like dominoes and almost as bad a decision as the RF funding. Both 'decisions' nearly toppled the company for good. The best case scenario meant a wasted year in time and running costs. Both of which are in short supply. I'm over it now, we moved on.

My 'advice' to the board would be to get careful who you take advice from. Look to add value where you can not just the end game.

Yep, Utar there could be hints but investors should get angry and say the board needs replacing or the company is finished if they don't live up to your expectations. Interim results are regulatory, but they give a chance to summerise progress so far. Personally, if the mention all compounds as being active then we are still in the game. Anything consigned to being a footnote is probably being managed out. Realistically, this could be the last update we get before the dosing period is complete.

I dont want to interrupt your positive feeling, Utar but the 12th is just an update. A reiteration of what we already know and a report on the finances to the end of 2025. Im hoping there is a bit of meat on the bones such as dosing started but they will defo reiterate the end of 2026 timeline for the full data package. The only way we learn something new is if a RNS is released between now and Thurs.

So the question is, Utar, will you be criticising the board if they just reiterate what we already know? Because if yes, it will highlight why the SP drops after these things.

For me, Thursday means we are still in the game. Nothing more.

Yep, agreed. Woeful at meeting self imposed timescales. They always have been though. All things and past slip ups considered they are now progressing. This time, I think they have given themselves a longer runway than needed so maybe they are learning from mistakes? Its a tricky situation. Personally, I have two niggling fears. One is, the tox study fails. Damion made stark comment after the, fail last year. Paraphrased "there is no point having a best in class bullet if you can't design a gun to fire it" The tox study is make or break in this respect. My other fear is we get dilluted before we can get a deal. IMO both these fears are why the SP is in the doldrums. Remove those fears and we are on our way to a pound and today's SP will seem like the biggest bargain ever.

It's hard to disagree with that view, Colbalt. I think the problem is that a lot of shareholders believe Sareum are further forward, in terms of development than they really are. So when we do get a a progress update with timescales, reality hits and there is some selling. The last RNS is a perfect example of this. The told us the Tox was restarting, this is great news, or should have been. They also gave us realistic timescales for delivering the full data package and that's where it went awry. Some investors saw that as a delay and the SP fell. It's been like this for years now. Short of making a deal, I dont know what the board can do here. All I'm looking for is the dosing has started and is progressing well. I dont expect a deal before we get the data package. So possibly early 2027. This largely depends on when the data package is ready though.

Yes, get what you are saying but they are all board decisions. The toxicology study will decide whether 1801 (and 2) will be allowed to go into phase 2. This is where DP's arguments fall down. It wouldn't matter who had the compound at this stage. Small bio or multinational pharma. The study is the study and now it has started, It has to run it's course.

Yes, get what you are saying but they are all board decisions. The toxicology study will decide whether 1801 (and 2) will be allowed to go into phase 2. This is where DP's arguments fall down. It wouldn't matter who had the compound at this stage. Small bio or multinational pharma. The study is the study and now it

DP isn't some trading guru. We already know that Sareum only have enough funds to complete the tox study. We have been told quite a few times now. If they don't get a non dilluting cash influx by the end of Q4, they will need to raise. It isn't a a prediction. That's just how it is. DP, you already know this, you have beer told do if/when it does happen, you can't act supprised. I've said this before. This is it. The first really big hurdle that Sareum has had to attempt. Not quite make or break but defo the difference between 5 and 50p a share. The board have been clear, do you sell or hold. Your choice.

Hi PC. We know from experience that the board will be selective when answering questions. Anything regulatory or price sensitive they will dodge. I understand why they do this but get frustrated when loads of un answerable questions get submitted. IMO the board can use these to run down the time and we don't learn anything. I have submitted 5 questions. This one we are talking about is clear. Have they registered on Partnering One, and if yes, what is in the presentation? There isn't a reason not to answer this. The answer will tells if they are actually speaking to potential partners and what about.

Bio Europe use the sector leading partnering one system. Essentially, this is speed dating for biotech and pharma. The system matches pipelines with phama shoppimlng lists. Multiple, Short, closed, 15 or 30 minutes presentations where phama execs walk around to watch the presentations. https://informaconnect.com/bioeurope-spring/partnering/?hl=en-GB

I have submitted a question for the IM call. Roughly, "Have sareum registered on partnering one and if yes, what is in the presentation?"

Quite early this year. Might be of significance, probably not though. I'm thinking doing it early is a way to dodge the inevitable 'has dosing started' questions. End of march would have been harder. Still, an update is an update and with the current market turmoil. some may turn to speculative trading to get their kicks. Would take much to kick this off.

Yep and with the official strategy being to on licence 1801 and 02. That valuation would be largely based on upfront amounts and de risked phase 2 readiness. Presumably the Tox data can be read through to 1802? As this could add more value to an upfront payment.

We should be looking at 50 to 75p on a successful Tox study. That would largely depend on the starting point before news lands. IMO, the all time high market cap is the baseline. I don't think speeding tickets would be issued while ever the market cap is under that. If the sentiment changes here and the SP is already over 50p on RNS day then it all down to the market and what it can stand.

I've been watching other small CSP bios recently. Hemo, PYC, IMM and others. They have all been quite volatile on relatively small snippets of news. The potential for an upfront that is bigger than the current market cap could drive the same sentiment here, and if it came here, it would change the holder dynamic, before any real clinical progress is made.

FWIW. I still think RMM's prediction is still a valid and likely prediction if the study goes well. You need to adjust for dilution though. So lets say £3.20 a share within 2 years.