Ben Richardson, CEO at SulNOx, confident they can cost-effectively decarbonise commercial shipping. Watch the video here.
Good 1a data will stabilize the SP. A safe and well-tolerated compound would be a steal at this price or indeed anything under a pound. In the meantime, I wouldn't rule out a fall into the 30's or even 20's until we get the news. I'd say 4 to 8 weeks. Might be sooner but I think Damion's assessment sounds good. I also wouldn't rule out 2 RNS. 1 to say the trial is finished and that data will be reviewed, the other when the data is published.
All we can really say, is if they did sell, they lost a lot of money. I seem to recall someone here who went to the AGM, meeting one of them? We have a good idea who they were because some of us have saw a bloomberg screen with their names on.
I still stand by my prediction of a 2 billion valuation at the end of p2. This is based on 737 still in trials, 1801 successfully completing P2 and 1802 in phase 1. However, we will need some serious investment to fund the trial, development and day to day running of the business. The current state of the markets will reduce the Boards options. For 1801, Personally, I think they will go for a licence and it will be low upfront with large backend milestones with an option to take 1802 if it passes phase 1. This scenario might delay that 2 billion valuation until phase 3 is well underway. In the meantime, whilst we wait, I think SAR will licence a compound from another bio with a view to taking into phase 1 and 2. Just like Sierra did with Momelotinib. It might not be what we want but once 1801 is licenced, then our path to market is set.
Buyout valuations will be much lower until phase 2 is done. Ahfam had a list of deals made but was always a bit vague about where the company was in terms of development. When you looked at them, the big ones were nearly always phase two assets.
We talk about the science all the time here but very rarely talk about valuations of phase 1 assets. There are past deals we can compare against but it would need the corporate finance guys here to give some opinions.
I think in the short term, SAR will not be affected by their exposure to RF as we should already have enough cash to complete P1b but come the end of 2024 when P1a is due to be completed if there is no licence then we will find it extremely hard to raise further cash. It could be a blessing in disguise though. If they can't meet contractual agreements, that would probably mean we could get out of the contract early.
An opposite view, would be. If you had the upmost confidence in Sareum, you should probably buy RF shares too. If we 10 bag from here, so does RF's holding in SAR. They probably hold enough, with the warrants to make a profit bigger than their current market cap.
37p was my old average, 0.74p. 0.18p was the lowest point I ever bought in. Technically, I'm in profit because I took my initial stake out several times. Still stings though. With the RF drawdown due anytime, the 20's could be breached very soon.
There isn't anything the board can do. Good or bad, What has been done, is already done. Its interesting you used the word disciples in an earlier post. the scales are tipping into the negative sentiment and every ardent long-termer will have a breaking point where they think, "well, this is a bit sh@t"
We need data and we are not that far away from the first tranche of data. April\May possibly before or they won't meet their own deadline of P1b completion this year.
I don't think we can force anyone's hand, Ben. It is my opinion that the last RNS we got was an honest update, clearly stating the plan and timescales. The damage, if you can call it that, has been done. We are stuck with RF until they are paid back. I think Damion's points re P1a trials are as good as we will get and if true, mean we don't have long to wait until we get news from 1a, good or bad. Personally, I don't think we will get a deal until 1b data is in. If the board are truthful, then we should be funded up to the end of 1b. I know some think we will get a deal on 1a data and I'm in no position to disagree with that. My concern with that is with an early license, the upfront will be small, maybe enough to keep the lights on and fund 1802 in P1 but no real shareholder value.
Either way, I think, once spring arrives, we will be stuck around the £1 level until 737 news or rumors about P1b leak.
I reckon a 5 million share dillution, if not more by the time the facility is settled. My main gripe is they knew this point was coming. They always knew it was coming. Imagine if they had offered 5 million shares at a discount when we were sitting comfortably over £2. We'd have enough cash to see us through phase 2. Don't anyone say 'hindsight' a few if us were saying it at the time. Including the late Thoth.
I reckon I will buy 1 more tranche this month. Then that's me done. Hibernate until news.
Aber, I feel for you. I know you have a large holding, and I know you must have watched a £1 million pound profit just disappear but it is what it is. You have to accept that without news the sp will stop into the 30's possibly the 20's, even. It's sh@t and there isn't a great deal we can do about it. I have been asking at what price even the most bills shareholder will start to question what us going on. We're getting there and I fear we will fall loser that most here ever imagined.
Bad news is the next tranche of funding is imminent, this or next week. Personally, I rather they take the whole lot now, £1.7 million, I think it is. Use that to kick start any work needed on translational studies for 1802. If we are going to zero may as well go disn with a fight
The good news is we aren't that far from a pivotal data releases for 1a. That should stabilise the SP for a bit but while ever RF are around, we are hamstrung until an early deal or 1b data. I'll be OK with that if 1a safety is good.
Warthog. I've been vocal that I hold the board responsible for the situation we're in. I'm not going to list the reasons why and I'm not interested in hearing weak defenses, such as having faith, believing, or trusting the science. But to answer your question, I'd wager that unless people need the cash, they will let it run, even if it does 5 bag from here. I suspect you will too. I am, however, buying in small amounts and will keep buying down to 37p. I have added approx 7000 shares since RF came onboard and I will sell these on any spike, leaving my main pot invested. Averaging down is never a good strategy but for those deep underwater, it could get your money back back quicker. Of course, you could be throwing good money after bad too.
Yes, Luton! Manipulation of the share price to make a profit is the job description for an MM. They walk the SP down in quiet times because that's the easiest way to generate trades. The RF finance facility is making their job very easy at the minute. I'm bullish in the short term, mainly because, unless there is a catastrophe, we look like passing p1a. Safety assured is a big deal. It might not be enough to get us a licence but it should attract new investors. I'm in agreement with Damion. March/April for news. This is why I'm buying.
I sort of agree, Andy but that scenario only works if we are following all the way to market. There is plenty of time to do a deal that will add significant value way before we get to find if it is the drug we've been waiting for. I certainly down want to go past phase 2 and will look for exits all the way yo that point.