Member Info for potnak

I must say I am relieved. Oxb, have my only major loss. 95% monetary loss, overnight, when a trial "failed to meet primary endpoint". Fair few years ago now but remember it vividly. The oxb chat board over at II was toxic. I ended up cutting my losses and walking away. Never went back.

If 16 and 32 show up. AI has taken over! It's a binary conversation. Or someone having a bit of fun.

Hey GGekko87. Sorry to hear about your diagnosis, life can bi sh*t at times. My other half lost both her parents to cancer. Her mum was only 57! Both never drew on their pensions. I have to admit it did change what we do quite a lot.

My retirement plans have always been pinned around being 60, upto 62 if needed. Two reasons, I dont have enough yet and the other is my other half is 8 years younger than me! However I would do it early if a windfall dropped on me. SAR is that windfall. I have 400k shares so £1 would effectively, be life changing. I believe we could £2 or even £3 per share and even that is only a £500 million market cap.

I am still physically fit but aging means it can be a constant struggle to keep doing what I like to do. I lead a very simple life. Running, walking, beers and a 4 year old Lab. The Lab is a very good pub companion too. Lets hope that Sareum come good in 26.

Thankyou for your post. I really hope the chemo and surgery help and give you more time.

Dillution. Check what the market cap was when it was £4, then apply that market cap to current shares in issue. I'm not going to do it for you. Also, if all outstanding warrants are taken then the shares in issue would be 156 million ish. That is the figure I use for buyout scenarios. Might not be super accurate but it's all we have for now.

My isa shares break even at 34p I think. My sipp shares are 17p so am in profit with those already. The average moves around because I'm still adding to both pots. I'm 56 now. The risk of holding will be too great in a year or 2, max and I will need to start offloading to consolidate gains.

I do feel for those underwater and I don't think we are out of the woods yet either but just one little snippet if news could put 10p on the share price. Something tangible e.g. 737 deal could tahe the sp past 50p.

Do I dream of £5 a share still, no. Do I believe £2 to £3 a share possible? Absolutely. The Tox study needs to be good and we are off.

Can't speak for everyone DP but I dont plan to hold my SAR share much past phase 2. Ideally out before the end of phase 2. I would wager the board are thinking the same.

737 known synergies below

SRA737 Combination Treatment Synergy Summary

​Companion: Gemcitabine (Chemotherapy)

​Owner: Generic (Originally Eli Lilly)

​Companion: Pembrolizumab / Keytruda (Immunotherapy)

​Owner: MSD (Merck & Co.)

​Companion: Nivolumab / Opdivo (Immunotherapy)

​Owner: Bristol Myers Squibb (BMS)

​Companion: Durvalumab / Imfinzi (Immunotherapy)

​Owner: AstraZeneca

​Companion: Olaparib / Lynparza (PARP Inhibitor)

​Owner: AstraZeneca & MSD

​Companion: AZD5153 (BET Inhibitor)

​Owner: AstraZeneca

This is where I am looking. Either one of these or strategically gaining patents for combo use. To make 737 an off the shelf compound for use in combo. Technically, you wouldn't need a pharma for the second scenario. An organisation such as the Wellcome Trust could take this forward for altruistic reasons.

The only compound that is ready to sell is sra737 and it is my belief that the value of 737 is directly liked to the current patent life.

The TYK2 compounds will need de risking before moving into phase 2 progress. That is the purpose of the extened tox study. Until we have tox data back, it is, what it is.

If all goes well, I'd expect SAR to have a similar valuation at the phase 2b stage for 1801. Utar is kind of correct. It's an apples and oranges comparison. We're at least 2 years from those sorts of numbers and that's if everything goes to plan with no delays. Call it 3 years for contengency. That's not to say we couldn't get a wild offer before then but it would be a quarter of that and only after extended toxicity data is in.

For 737, I don't doubt the science is promising but the clock on the patent is ticking down rapidly. With only 7 years left to run, even if fast tracked to market. There may only be 2 or 3 years in which to make a profit before any pharma can use the compound for combo treatments. IMO, this is why it isn't licenced yet. This wouldnt dnt be a bad outcome for cancer treatments but in terms of monetary value. Without an extended patent window, There is very little for Sareum. However, if the patent window can be extended. Then, IMO, it's game on. Personally, it's my belief that this is the strategy for 737.

The mechanism would be a special dividend, Utar. IMO, this could be a likely scenario for 737. Don't forget that Sareum woukd only take 67.5 percent of any deal though.

I'd caveat my previous post with the remaining patent life. IMO, any deal for 737 will be dependant on being able to extend the patent life when used in combo. I wouldn't mind betting that this is is what is taking the time to complete.

Using standard valuation techniques. End of phase 2

SRA737 (Phase 2):**

* Peak Sales: £300M - £700M (mid £500M)

* Discount Rate: 18%

* PoS: 25%

* Multiplier: 3.5

* Value Range: £166.6M - £583.3M (mid £277.7M)

Not sure how combo valuations work but £50 million would seem low ball.

Again. It's a internet chat board. There are inaccurate posts every single day. You only pick on certain posters though. That fine, I don't think anyone really cares.

I didn't say the compound failed. The Tox study failed to reach it's primary endpoint. Nothing was gained from it. I've moved, I am very bullish for the future, most here have moved on too but can continue with gatekeeper role. I try not to come here if the market is closed. I have much better things to do. See you all on Monday. The sun is out and a hilly forest walk with my dog is beconing.

SOG. Failure, stopped, ended, Passed on, is no more, ceased to be, expired, gone to meet its maker, a stiff, bereft of life, rests in peace, pushing up the daisies, metabolic processes are now history, off the twig, kicked the bucket, shuffled off his mortal coil, rung down the curtain, joined the choir invisible, an ex-tox study.

It's an internet chat board. The trial was ended. It was a f**k up.

Personally, I don't think there needs to be a buyout for an off ramp for TM or the shareholders. If the compounds are licenced and in the control a third party then it's a waiting game. The company could run even leaner than it does now, while we wait. If it's a JV, then the other party could install a CEO or an other role as figure head. My guess is, the timescales to any strategic reorganization of the company. Got extended when the tox study failed. I sensed a lot of frustration from JR in the IM call and it was practically leaking out of SP at the AGM. I'm not saying we were at the endgame a biyout, I still think it will be licence deals but I do believe we were close to a strategic shift in how Sareum operate and that is now paused, waiting on the new Tox study.

For whatever reason. I think TM is effectively out of the decision making but as a founder. His options are being protected. So he's doing a bit of science, a bit of networking and showing a bit of continuity with the board. This also makes me think that it was a temporary decision that for various reasons has gone on for longer than anticipated.

IMO. The CNS thing, although, massive potential if it shows efficacy, is a bit of sizzle on the sausage for a buyout. It is way too early for any real value. 1802 is ready for a licence right now and that appears to be plan A, but both of the above are dependant on 1801 successfully completing an extended Tox study. These compounds together make a really nice package for any pharma with a TYK2 shaped hole in their pipeline. I wouldn't be surprised if 737 is sold outright but this could depend on whether the patent life can be extended when used in combo. Again, I wouldn't be surprised if this work is already underway. As we know patents can a while to be approved, we also know they can be hidden when commercially sensitive. Submarine patent, anyone?

The published 1801 trial data, could be being held back for the same commercially sensitive reasons.

I said this the other day. Massive risk still but maybe the last chance to buy for a proper multi bagger.

Looks like I was right. Might see more sell off going into the weekend then a bounce next week.

I guess there are quite a few traders, waiting on that Thursday RNS that AIM companies seem to like. Barely any trades at all.