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There isn't anything the board can do. Good or bad, What has been done, is already done. Its interesting you used the word disciples in an earlier post. the scales are tipping into the negative sentiment and every ardent long-termer will have a breaking point where they think, "well, this is a bit sh@t"
We need data and we are not that far away from the first tranche of data. April\May possibly before or they won't meet their own deadline of P1b completion this year.
I don't think we can force anyone's hand, Ben. It is my opinion that the last RNS we got was an honest update, clearly stating the plan and timescales. The damage, if you can call it that, has been done. We are stuck with RF until they are paid back. I think Damion's points re P1a trials are as good as we will get and if true, mean we don't have long to wait until we get news from 1a, good or bad. Personally, I don't think we will get a deal until 1b data is in. If the board are truthful, then we should be funded up to the end of 1b. I know some think we will get a deal on 1a data and I'm in no position to disagree with that. My concern with that is with an early license, the upfront will be small, maybe enough to keep the lights on and fund 1802 in P1 but no real shareholder value.
Either way, I think, once spring arrives, we will be stuck around the £1 level until 737 news or rumors about P1b leak.
I reckon a 5 million share dillution, if not more by the time the facility is settled. My main gripe is they knew this point was coming. They always knew it was coming. Imagine if they had offered 5 million shares at a discount when we were sitting comfortably over £2. We'd have enough cash to see us through phase 2. Don't anyone say 'hindsight' a few if us were saying it at the time. Including the late Thoth.
I reckon I will buy 1 more tranche this month. Then that's me done. Hibernate until news.
Aber, I feel for you. I know you have a large holding, and I know you must have watched a £1 million pound profit just disappear but it is what it is. You have to accept that without news the sp will stop into the 30's possibly the 20's, even. It's sh@t and there isn't a great deal we can do about it. I have been asking at what price even the most bills shareholder will start to question what us going on. We're getting there and I fear we will fall loser that most here ever imagined.
Bad news is the next tranche of funding is imminent, this or next week. Personally, I rather they take the whole lot now, £1.7 million, I think it is. Use that to kick start any work needed on translational studies for 1802. If we are going to zero may as well go disn with a fight
The good news is we aren't that far from a pivotal data releases for 1a. That should stabilise the SP for a bit but while ever RF are around, we are hamstrung until an early deal or 1b data. I'll be OK with that if 1a safety is good.
Warthog. I've been vocal that I hold the board responsible for the situation we're in. I'm not going to list the reasons why and I'm not interested in hearing weak defenses, such as having faith, believing, or trusting the science. But to answer your question, I'd wager that unless people need the cash, they will let it run, even if it does 5 bag from here. I suspect you will too. I am, however, buying in small amounts and will keep buying down to 37p. I have added approx 7000 shares since RF came onboard and I will sell these on any spike, leaving my main pot invested. Averaging down is never a good strategy but for those deep underwater, it could get your money back back quicker. Of course, you could be throwing good money after bad too.
Yes, Luton! Manipulation of the share price to make a profit is the job description for an MM. They walk the SP down in quiet times because that's the easiest way to generate trades. The RF finance facility is making their job very easy at the minute. I'm bullish in the short term, mainly because, unless there is a catastrophe, we look like passing p1a. Safety assured is a big deal. It might not be enough to get us a licence but it should attract new investors. I'm in agreement with Damion. March/April for news. This is why I'm buying.
I sort of agree, Andy but that scenario only works if we are following all the way to market. There is plenty of time to do a deal that will add significant value way before we get to find if it is the drug we've been waiting for. I certainly down want to go past phase 2 and will look for exits all the way yo that point.
Who said anything about del boy? I'm talking Peel Hunt or some other big org that can open the doors for us. And Laz, I know you know the score, you know we need data, you know what a deal is likley to do to the SP. Not sure who made the squeaky chair comment. It's funny but also true. Tim Mitchells job as CEO, is to generate shareholder value. They've taken the cash from the market, his job, to the best of his ability, is to pay that cash back. Imagine negotiating a deal worth 100's of millions, if not billions and um'ing & ar'ing with punctuation from a squeaky chair all the way through the presentation. I'm jot saying we need a guy in a shiny suit but we do need someone who can talk with authority and confidence about the compounds. That may be TM and Parker but I'm not convinced yet.
I'm past the rose tinted view of the science will save us. It's like any other investment, whether that be tech, oil, miners etc. I've said this a few times, not all AIM companies that fail have a failed product. They mostly fail because of lack of fiance, bad management or just fizzle out. A good deal maker could get us a deal way before the compound fails or proves itself. We've done the science, it's now time to pursue the shareholder value.
Yes, Aber. The trust the science things always triggers me. We need Mitchell and Parker to be deal makers and if they need help in brokering a deal they should seek it but I guess this is where Peel Hunt will come in. However, the sp is looking very cheap, with a potential upside on 1a data. Possibly back over a pound and back in institutional investor range. I'm not sure we'll get a deal before 1b data, mainly because the RNS's usually states that as the plan. But 1a data, a big regulatory hurdle cleared, could be as close as end of March. Not long to wait.
Unless the board strongly recommended it, I personally wouldn't accept a formal offer of anything less that £10 a share. If an offer is being made both parties know the true value. I might critise the board sometimes but they know what the compounds are worth if they work.
I think the TO window is closing rapidly and once a licence is negotiated, then, it's closed. The reason being, is why woukd a pharma buy a small biotech if there was already a legally binding agreement for their compounds. They'd be buying something they had no control of. I'd be happy to see any evidence of this ever happening same with an equity company buyout. These usually happen when there is a proven revenue stream and usually when the patent expires. Again, if anyone knows where this happened before, I'd liked to read about it. The tyk2 landscape is getting more crowded and some 2nd gen tyk2 will hit the markets way before 1801/2 does. So this narrows down the field too. It also validates the neck gen tyk2 compounds.
Interesting to hear SOG saying that he think we'll get a licence at the end of 1a as this goes against everything in the recent RNS but then, they would say that, wouldn't they. A TO at the end of 1a would make perfect sense because the overall value is less without proven immune response data that 1b will give us. I know most here bang on about the science but I'd bet my mortgage that other than John Reader, the rest of the board are thinking this way. If the compounds are good they will live on but you don't start your own company for altruistic reasons. Do the rest of the board will have thought about what success means and for me, that is shareholder value.
I don't really have a view on where Sareum are listed but we aren't far from the scenario you state. On the face of it SAR seem to he the perfect choice for a takeover. Small headcount, the NEDS would just walk away, as would Parker, i assume. John and Tim would stay on but with no other assets, it would be simple. However, With all compounds at different stages of development, we may not be ready to TO. IMO, Leggster's scenario is the most likely to happen. And although a licence for 1801, would be massive news, I won't give us the big payday that some of us would like. It's a conundrum, that is fast approaching, especially if you are getting on in age. Do you get out on the spikes or do you wait 3,4,5 years for the compounds to hit the market. Billion dollar revenues don't start until the drug is being prescribed.
One scenario, I have thought about and Tim also mentioned it a couple of times. Is when the Tyk2 compounds are licenced, they use the upfront to aquire a pre or early clinical compound, just like Sierra did. This could add some real value in a short space of time whilst the tyk2 compounds are being looked after with someone else.