Member Info for potnak

Here you go. Quick AI maths, using approximate shares in issue and warrants.

The Peak Valuation Maths

​If a major licensing deal (such as an SRA737 buyout) or a successful Phase 2-ready SDC-1801 data package returns Sareum's market capitalisation to its 2021 peak of £283 million, here is how it translates to the current share price:

​The Basic Calculation (138.1m shares): £283,000,000 ÷ 138,100,000 shares = £2.05 (205p) per share.

​The Fully Diluted Calculation (~160m shares): £283,000,000 ÷ 160,000,000 shares = £1.77 (177p) per share.

You missed the more than doubling of shares in issue, DP.

Its been £1.76 for ages. I think someone here pointed out that £1.76 is the equivalent of the all-time highs when dilution is taken into account. I took the singer target to be derisked. So a complete 16 week study. The full data package will add more to that. CNS not priced in nor is any deal on 737 or licence for 1801 or 1802. Suddenly £1.76 doesn't feel that far off.

Lots to look forward to here. The only binary event is the Tox study. Which in fairness is a Biggie. It's crucial to the health of our portfolios.

Can't see the Singer buy rating as you need to be a a client to see the data but it is correct as far as I can see. If Singer are putting a buy rating of 41p out to their clients. Other brokers probably are too. I'm wondering what will trigger the buying to start?

Oh, and yes SOG. I watched it this morning but had AI look at the corresponding report.

The really good news is Singer appears to have reiterated their 41p target, on the 17th of Feb. That's almost a 3 bagger from here with very little actually priced in.

Another AI summary of broker valuation. Note, needs checking.

Here is exactly how the City of London is currently pricing Sareum’s prospects for 2026.

​When you strip away the retail noise and look at the institutional broker consensus, the math is incredibly specific, but it also reveals a massive disconnect between the current share price and what the analysts believe the company is actually worth.

​1. The Consensus Price Target: 41.6p

​As of early 2026, the official 12-month analyst consensus price target for Sareum sits at 41.6p.

​To put that into perspective:

​Current Share Price: Sareum is currently trading around the 14.5p – 15.5p mark.

​The Implied Upside: The institutional target implies an upside of roughly 170% from today’s levels.

​2. The Brokers Setting the Pace

​There are two main institutional voices driving this valuation in London right now:

​Singer Capital Markets: Following Sareum's late-2025 AGM, Singer's analyst (Edward Sham) issued a formal update titled "Back on Track." He explicitly reiterated their BUY rating and the 41.6p price target. He noted that the restart of the toxicology study using existing cash resources is the key value inflection point that will make SDC-1801 "Phase 2 ready" and generate significant deal interest.

​Edison Group: Edison operates slightly differently; rather than issuing standard "Buy/Sell" targets, they build deep fundamental valuation models. In their recent 2025/2026 notes, Edison highlighted that Sareum’s renegotiation of the SRA737 asset (taking their economic cut to 63.5%) and their expansion into CNS indications radically upgrades the company's baseline value.

​3. What the 41.6p Target Actually Prices In

​This is the most important part of your investment thesis. The 41.6p target does not price in a massive £400m+ buyout. The City of London is notoriously conservative. The current 41.6p target is essentially pricing in:

​Survival: Sareum successfully finishing the 16-week SDC-1801 toxicology study without running out of cash.

​Baseline Partnering: Securing a standard, mid-tier licensing deal for SDC-1801 or SRA737.

​What is currently missing from the valuation: The brokers have not yet modelled in the "Blood-Brain Barrier Premium" we discussed earlier. If Sareum formally announces that the Receptor.AI compounds have successfully achieved brain penetration and are patent-protected, the analysts will have to drastically upgrade their models to account for the Formation Bio/Sanofi valuation benchmarks.

You know me SOG. It not that I'm not interested in the science and I don't profess to know how the science works but I've been around AIM long enough to that big pharma will pay for something unproved if they think it will give them an edge. If not, it's a nice deductible loss. Win\win. BBB crossing compounds could be the next big thing for CNS indications. Sareum won't be first in class but a safe and tolerable drug could be best in class. I said earlier this week, as an investor, I'm not interested in 'does it work' all I want is that pharma will pay to try and prove it. Below is an AI summary of some key deals in this area.

Here is the condensed breakdown of those four key valuation benchmarks:

​1. The Preclinical Upfront Benchmark (BMS & Prothena): Bristol Myers Squibb paid an £63 million upfront cash fee for a preclinical neurodegenerative drug with zero human clinical data. They paid this premium purely because the asset demonstrated clear target engagement across the blood-brain barrier in lab models.

​2. The Platform Valuation (Novartis & DTx Pharma): Novartis spent £390 million upfront to acquire DTx Pharma outright, despite their lead asset still being in the laboratory phase. This massive valuation was driven entirely by DTx's proprietary technology for delivering therapeutics directly into the brain.

​3. The Multiple Sclerosis Premium (Sanofi & Principia): Sanofi initially paid a £31 million upfront licensing fee for Principia’s early-stage, brain-penetrant MS drug before ultimately buying the entire company for £2.9 billion. This highlights that oral, small-molecule drugs designed to treat neuroinflammation command staggering buyouts from Big Pharma.

​4. The Direct TYK2 CNS Benchmark (Formation Bio & Lynk): Formation Bio paid roughly £480 million for an IND-approved, CNS-targeted TYK2 inhibitor that had not yet been tested in human patients. Because this is the exact chemical class and target Sareum is currently building with Receptor.AI, it establishes a direct, real-time valuation floor for their neurology programme.

I have a 2 part question re the CNS indication. If AI has identified a good candidate for a BBB compound. Realistically, with funding, how long to run through the process to be phase 1 ready? And second part, at what point can the compound makeup be filed for patent protection. The Formation bio deal for BLKR201 has, essentially, set the price for a preclinical deal. I'm interested if SAR's New compound is unique enough from BLKR201 to protect it. If yes, then even at this early stage. It could be worth buying the whole company just to secure the CNS compound.

Historically, Sareum take a long time to run through pre clinical and select indications but I'm not sure it needs to take that long, if funding is available.

As with 737, IMO, the CNS value will emerge if JR can file a patent that has a good chance of being granted.

As SOG says. 16 weeks is 16 weeks. The exact mid point of the year is July 2nd (182.5 days). So say 2 weeks either side of that and work backwards? It's a fools game. Dosing underway will do me.

The trouble with RNS ING the 1st dose is that starts a 16 week timer. No room to wiggle. Where as if, in the results RNS they say dosing started and past the milestone where it was halted last time. Give them wiggle and a good news story. Not saying this will happen but that's what I'd do.

Also worth mentioning that the half year results are regulatory. They must provide an update on all active compounds. IMO the chairman's corner updates are doing what they are intended to do, without it being regulatory. They are a means to soothe shareholder anxiety. We shouldn't read too much into them but should treat them as a nod to say. All good, according to the plan. I would hope we get a dosing update in the results RNS because that is a regulatory update.

It's anxiety, PC. This perceived risk has always been there, it's just that now, the binary win\lose outcome is fast approaching. I not exactly binary, its more fuzzy than that. More like quantum where the company will succeed and fail at the same time with all other scenarios happening at the same time too.

We all bet that the science can be monitised but for that to happen the board need to keep the science on track.

Riverfort was a very bad decision.

Pivot from P1 b to Tox study was sketchy. IMO. 1b would have been deemed a success and the pivot robbed the shareholders a chance to top skim.

The Tox study halt was unfortunate and the board admitted they weren't involved enough. So again, another dropping of the ball.

However. The 1801 science hasn't changed. If it doesn't succeed this year, it wouldn't have succeeded 5 years ago. If you thought it was a bargain pre consolidation, using the above scenario. It still is.

It's more like a fiver a share, Utar. So... Even nicer.

Off to bed now. Up early in the morning.

Here is the condensed breakdown of the major pharmaceutical companies that have spent roughly $100 billion dominating the Antibody-Drug Conjugate (ADC) market.

​They are the most likely buyers who need a DDR inhibitor like SRA737 to stop cancers from developing resistance to their massive investments:

​Daiichi Sankyo & AstraZeneca (The Champions): Co-developers of the blockbuster Enhertu. AstraZeneca is also building a $1.5 billion dedicated ADC manufacturing facility.

​Pfizer (The Mega-Buyer): Staked its entire oncology future on ADCs by acquiring Seagen for $43 billion in late 2023.

​AbbVie & Merck (The Expanders): AbbVie spent $10 billion acquiring ImmunoGen, whilst Merck signed a $22 billion co-development deal with Daiichi.

​Gilead Sciences (The Combination Hunter): Owns the blockbuster Trodelvy and is already actively running clinical trials combining ADCs with DDR inhibitors to protect its market share from AstraZeneca.

No idea if this is correct it not

Antibody-Drug Conjugates (ADCs) and DNA Damage Response (DDR) inhibitors like SRA737 are a perfect match because they create an inescapable, two-pronged trap for cancer cells. ADCs act as guided missiles, delivering a highly toxic chemotherapy payload directly into the tumour to severely damage its DNA. However, cancer cells often survive this initial strike by activating their DDR network (specifically the Chk1 pathway) to pause cell division and repair the structural damage, which ultimately leads to drug resistance. By pairing an ADC with SRA737, you effectively drop the bomb and then immediately cut the repair lines; the cancer cell is completely overwhelmed by the DNA damage and undergoes catastrophic cell death, making SRA737’s uniquely safe clinical profile an ideal partner to supercharge these aggressive therapies.

My little AI agent did mention Dana Farber a few times. It does seem to be fixated on AZ and china. Specifically, Jacobio and Beigene but also, recently, quite a lot of ADC and DDR combinations. Some big big players in that market. It's gone a but rogue and have to keep grounding it. Ha ha. It's all a bit of fun but there could be some truth amongst it all. I get a little update once a week.

I get what you are saying, blockbuster but you won't be surprised that I see this differently. 1801 is the lead asset, although 737 is further advanced. Parkers update reflects the focus right now. It doesn't necessarily mean 737 is bad. It just isn't the focus right now. Or, 737 could be in the final stages of a deal negotiation and can't say anything. 1802 will need a completes and successful Tox study before anything happens, so again, not the focus. For the CNS piece. Personally, I think they will need cash before they can move that on. The Formation Bio deal I posted the other week, $605m was signed on an unpublished, IND-stage asset. So by my thinking, if funds were available, around 18 months of work to get to that stage. Personally, I think they need to get patent protection first. Then it has some intrinsic value, either as a standalone deal or bundled with the other compounds.

Finally, as an investor. The compounds getting to market are largely irrelevant at this stage. All I really need is for a pharma and the market to BELIEVE the compounds will get to market. £500 million could be achievable once the excitement starts to build. Certainly all time MC highs breached.even £2 a share would make a lot of LTG happy here.

Yep, good update. Although, it still isn't clear if "start of toxicology study" means the 16 week dosing part has started. Hopefully, half year results can clarify this.

There will be a statement on the pipeline. Even if they say almost halfway through dosing, it should be enough to settle nerves. For the CNS patent. They can, without breaking rules, say a patent application has been filed or given us the steps needed to get to that point. 737bis more wooly as we don't know if anything is happening. However. If a deal was being worked through. The partner, in this case might want to announce at AACR or ASCO. In the first half of 2026. My gut is telling me 737 is complex and it will boil down to patent life or more importantly patent life extension. 1802 will need the 1801 tox study to complete. But we could\should get an update that settles everyone's nerves. Without breaking NDA or trading rules.