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I don't think we will get a buyout. The point you are missing is the valuation of any company before a buyout. It's likely that with 737 progressing, 1801 in P2 and 1802 in P1b (straight into patients) then Sareum will be already valued in the 100's of millions. We are in a bit of a mess at the moment but once we get funding for 1b sorted which I think will be soon, the amount based on the maximum allowed of the three clauses in the contract. Upto £1.4 million, Can't be more, than 10% of the market cap. Not greater than 15 x the 10 and 20 day average and finally, only if the outstanding RF deposits is less than £1 million. It would be nice if one of the accountants on this board could do an analysis on this but I think this or next week at a price of between 30p and 33p. If we can get over this hurdle then a licence on 1b data we'll be flying again.
With Aurora as an example, why would you want to be known as the company that couldn't solve solubility issues? With 737,we will hear something when there is something positive (financially compelling) to report. Until then, we can only speculate. Personally, the terms of the licence do seem to point to a link with Sierra though. But then, with nothing concrete, you could just use that last deal as a reference too. So I dunno.
Yes, but we're they the pharma that tried to solve the Aurora solubility issue? The 2020 RNS states China based specialty pharma company not university. The point I'm making is it isn't unusual to not be told. It's the second time it's happened with Sareum. I guess it is done for a few reasons but mainly to keep an orderly market.
I don't think we ever found out who the specialty Chinese pharma was took Aurora was either. They will sing from the rooftops once they know they have something. Or we'll get a Friday afternoon RNS saying it will be handed back. Im not even sure they will run trials, they might just pull a data package together to get funding first. I feel like 737 could be something but it's further away than 1801 1b IMO.
Might be cynical but I think the big sells on Friday we're RF getting rid because they think the sp will rise in the near future. It doesnt make sense to hold shares they paid over a pound for, when, under the terms of the deal. We will give them more to cover the losses.
I don't suppose the board will rule anything out but any investment now is going to come with a big dillution, even HNWI. IMO, we have our funding, it's not great but I will get us there. The boards job now is to generate some buzz so the SP average allows enough drawdown to complete 1b. Then it's a win or lose scenario. Good 1b data and we look for a licence bad 1b data and we all cry into our cornflakes. The good thing about our situation is it only carries on if the data is good.
I dunno about a placing. It would save the need to drawdown more from RF but I be surprised if they have even got half their cash back yet. So unless the placing was enough to pay fur 1b and oat off RF, then we would have two lots of dillution. It would also be at a big discount maybe 25p? So how would that be better than RF alone? It's a bit of a mess but IMO, we just need enough for 1b and hope the data is good.
Ahfam used to say "nothing goes up in a straight line" but with SAR most other AIM stock it probably will. The deal is the deal is the deal and the market cap will reflect what the monitary value of the deal is. The tricky bit for SAR is getting to the signing of the deal.
Another GUi sabotage. My post should have said.
I'm curious about why you didnt think this would happen, krusty? Not just you, all the others too. We were given a heads up with other companies names given. It was easy to validate the information. The RNS even states that if funding can't be drawn down, then other funding will be needed. I did say a couple of weeks ago, what is the SP level that will break the most ardent LTH. We're probably not far off now. There are still some who will double down and say the negative posters are not invested and have their own agenda, I've had it leveled at me a few times.
The good news, if you can call it hood news is we have enough cash to see 1a completed and plan 1b. Data from 1a should be enough to secure funding for 1b but might have to accept a heavy dillution.
I'm curious about why you didnt think this would happen, krusty? Not just you, all the others too. We were given a heads up with other companies names given. It was easy to validate the information. The RNS even states that if funding can't be drawn down he I did a couple of weeks ago, what is the SP level that will break the most ardent LTH. We're probably not far off now. There are still some who will double down and say the negative posters are not invested and have their own agenda, I've had it leveled at me a few times.
The good news, if you can call it hood news is we have enough cash to see 1a completed and plan 1b. Data from 1a should be enough to secure funding for 1b but might have to accept a heavy dillution.
Laz, we're only funded through 1b if the share price average allows enough drawdown. I don't know how much a 1b trial on 24 patients costs but that's the amount we need plus running costs. Mathprof posted yesterday that currently we can only drawdown £900k. Is that enough, i don't know.
Morning Kool. I agree with you. In all my time with SAR, we've never been as close to the edge as we are now. However, 1a MAD, if good and a high dosage is tolerated will Indicate where 1801 is compared to the competition. A higher tolerated dose, might be enough to secure funding from elsewhere but any funding at this SP is going to be a hefty dillution. We're in the edge and we will stay on the edge for a while but there is everything to play for.
Fanti. Generally, a biotech wouldnt give this sort of update mid trial. I think Sareum have released it for a couple of ressons. One to try and stop the downward trend to indicate confidence that it's probably worth holding your shares. The other reason might be to generate some volume and increase in sp for the 15 x multiple to the 10 and 20 day average clause. Which I think allows us to borrow more based on the average share price. We need a few days of blue to push that figure up. I'm certain all this would have been run past our Nomad and they obviously said yes, go for it.
I will keep buying anything under a £1. Will only be using funds I can afford to lose though. Might not be what others want but as long as 1b is funded im comfortable at these levels until 1b data is in. Allows to buy more each month.
It's a mixture of things, cobalt. Today's news was just SAD so we await MAD completion then the review then funding, then trial application. IMO. We need all that before May ends or they won't have enough time to recruit and complete 1b before the end of 2024.
Todays news is big, the compound is safe and tolerated.
MAD will provide data on how high they can go with the dosing. If higher than the competitors, game on and if 2b shows a, robust immune response, we are back in the £5 territory, IMO. if this had come in other times, it woukd easily have seen the sp double easy. But not long to wait for the other crucial pieces.
It's a mixture of things, cobalt. Today's news was just SAD so we await MAD completion then the review then funding, then trial application. IMO. We need all that before May ends or they won't have enough time to recruit and complete 1b before the end of 2024.
Todays news is big, the compound is safe and tolerated.
MAD will provide data on how high they can go with the dosing. If higher than the competitors, game on and if 2b shows a, robust immune response, we are back in the £5 territory, IMO. if this had come in other times, it woukd easily have seen the sp double easy. But not long to wait for the other crucial pieces.
Yes, will need to complete MAD in March/April to allow time for data review then get approval for p1b in time to complete that by the end of the year. It's a simplified view, notwithstanding financing, but a few hoops to jump through. All doable.