Member Info for potnak

Buying not bullying

Not sure something is stirring. Just punters realising that this might be the last time to get in for a multi bag. I wrote this morning why I'm still bullying but it looks like it disappeared.

Looks like 23p was just hit again. Next leg up incoming?

No worries, Silver. I don't know either but personally, I think we have had our AI update. Happy for someone to correct my thinking.

I'm not being funny or anything. Unless I misunderstood or didn't read something. I thought the findings of the study were as Laz pointed out? I guess the next step would be in vitro studies on the promising compound but we would need to assign funds to that.

Yes, but an RNS saying what? I think we have had the update. As Laz said. 6 compounds, 3 tested with 1 promising. Are you saying we should get an RNS with further info?

Hey, Aber. Are we expecting more on the CNS AI work? Genuine question. IMO the AGM statement left the whole thing open ended and non commital. I might have missed something though?

Aye but it's all speculation until we have something tangible. Realistically, with 3 compounds, soon to be 4, we hope. The market cap should be 4 x what it is. This isn't ramping, just based on how compounds are valued. From that baseline, jump to 500 million wouldn't be that great.

I have always and still think 2 billion by the end of a successful phase 2. The caveat being that all other compounds are in play too. Having said this. I don't think there is an appetite from the board or the shareholders to get there under our own steam. Not sure it will be a buyout but I think there will be exit points for the LTH and board members in the next 18 months. For a buyout, I think £500 million could be the baseline rising to 800 million in negotiations. However, the Tox study is crucial, as SOG stated. It has cast a big shadow over 1801 and the other TYK2 compounds. It's crucial the Sareum deliver on this.

I still think 20 x from here is achievable.

Honestly, this sure! The ad pop ups mean you have to chase the text be around the screen. I'll never come here again once sar is done!

I was going to say. If we can get early confirmation of study start, we should be nearer 30p. 50p or more on successful completion. IMO, a success will also trigger a licence deal for 1802 too.

If we cou

Might just be buyers anticipating early news on Tox study start. Although, with previous experience, I'm not holding my breath. I fully understand why they resort to obfuscation but knowing what we know how things played out last time. IMO, we need openness and a drip feed of 'news'.

The TM thing is strange. I was initially thinking, illness or a disagreement in how the company is run and to what end. I've stopped thinking about it now but my opinion is the stepping back but not leaving is more of a mechanism to protect TM's future share warrants.

Happy New Year, All!

Bobbler, I reckon we have at least 2 months before we need to worry. In that time we could get snippets of positive news.

If you went looking for worst case scenarios. What would you find? Finances, 737, Manufacturing delays, CRO delays? There is risk in everything they do but there always has been.. I don't know about others but I do anticipate these things can and do go wrong. Right now might be a sweet spot in the shard price where reward far out weighs the risk but you must acknowledge that risk and be prepared to lose it all.

I think the Comms are terrible but I understand why they don't give the shareholders a running commentary too.

It's a buy and hold for the short to mid term. Take profits when you see them and only buy what you can afford to lose.

First time I've been here since last week. The sentiment of some took a turn.

IMHO the risk here is the same it has ALWAYS been. The Ex Tox study is crucial and even if it passes with flying colours. There will still need to be another one done with excipients compatible with humans. That along with efficacy studies is essentially what phase 2 is. Again, if the board stick to what they told us, I stand by what I said last week. I can't see where any bad news can come from until the Tox study has started and to around the 4 week dosage period. The board said Tox study will be done with existing funds. We won't get bad news on 737. If no good, they will just stop talking about it.

How many shares do you know, for the next couple of months, only positive news is anticipated?

The risk is that the board might be walking a fine line on the finances. Hopefully there is contingency in the budgeting.

Utar is harmless. His posts add balance to the board.

Ha ha, CB. I remember thinking in 2019 that 2022 would be the year. Even said it here.

2 billion if 1801 aces phase 2 and 737 is licenced or sold. I still believe that but we aren't even close to that scenario yet. My strategy is to sell on rumour towards the end of phase 2. I won't risk everything been there, done that on other bio's . I have £50k invested here and there is no moral high ground or altruistic reasons. I invested to hopefully, make a profit. Right now, it feels likes a I have £50k riding on a 20-1 shot in the longest horse race in history.

With Sareums links to Galapagos, I used to think the compounds were heading there. At least 1 of the HNWI were from Belgium too.

I wasn't there to see body language but Parker got defensive immediately which would suggest that he had already preemted this type of questioning and knew he didn't have an answer. But instead of being professional he saw red, took the question as a slur on his abilities but his reaction backed up what quite a few here think of him. I very rarely criticise the board but by my thinking. We are now about 3 year behind where we should be. There comes a point where even the most ardent supporters of the board must start to think "maybe this isn't, just bad luck".

I've no idea if 1801, 02 are good, frankly, deep down, I don't really care. My bet is on the the compounds being good enough for the board to be able to monetise the development of the compound.

It might be a lot to take in but SOG is correct. Another example was the Tox study. We were told last year the study would start early 2025. The we get an RNS for the failure and find out they were only on week 4 of the trial. Where did did that time go? IMO when Parker got angry and being questioned at the AGM. He was telling on himself. He knows it is unacceptable, he just can't admit it.

Before anyone pipes up. I stand by everything I said this week. I believe there is an upside in the short to medium term but they have to come out fighting right from the off. Phase 2 ready by Q3, that's the goal.