Member Info for potnak

Yes, SOG. Like they did with 1801. The 'submarine patent'. Id be amazed if JR and SP haven't already explored this.

Id agree with the flipping but if Sareum can get a patent extension before they flip. The value of a phase 2 compound, it already passed phase 2, don't forget just needs to do the same in combo but but depending on indicators, the value is £300 to £800 million. The lowest of those adds more than a pound to Sareums share price.

I don't think anyone is saying 737 is dead in the water. The science in combo might be excellent. All of what you posted is true, Krone. I'm saying that without an extension to the patent. The window to for any owner to push through trials, get approval and start earning is rapidly closing. Once the patent expires, any pharma will be able use the drug, if, big IF it even gets developed. I've said many times on here. Lots of AIM companies fail, not because of a bad product but because, the company fail to monetise the product. There was 17 years left on the patent when is was licenced to pronai (sierra) 10 years have passed and at least 7 of those have been squandered. IMO, short of a rich benefactor, the only thing that will add value is a patent extension. I'm sure JR is working on this, possibly filed as a submarine patent under a different company name.

The patent runs out in 2033. You could burn through half those 8 years doing phase 2 combo, phase 3 and all the other hoops they would need to jump through. Leaving just 4 years for payback. If they can extend the patent, the value would significantly increase.

I'm back to my original strategy, one that served me well over the years and can protect against the negative binary events. Nothing complex. 2 pots, one holding pot, one trading pot. My holding pot breaks even at 17p but I plan to hold into the pounds, hopefully. For the trading pot, I will use the old buy on rumour, sell on news strategy. I reckon we could have 2 or maybe 3 cycles of this before Tox study completes. The ultimate aim is enough profit from trading pot to significantly protect against a negative binary result on the holding pot.

Agreed, Kat but IMO. They wouldn't be able to raise at the moment. There isn't anything to srll. If the Tox study completes successfully, and there isn't an imminent deal on the table then a raise will come. Possibly May\June 26.

IMO, we have to presume the appointment of Singer is to facilitate the raising of cash or to encourage thier client to buy. However, I'm presuming that when parker said they had enough cash to complete the Tox study that he wasn't lying. So I'm thinking we might have 2 months of stability or even upwards movement if snippets of news drop.

Yep, I just purchased almost £2.5k worth. 14.5p though!

The appointment can't be for an imminent raise. The risk is too high until the Tox study successfully completes. Singer can't push their pension or investment funds to buy as there are minimum share price rules around this. In the short term, all that is left is corporate finance advice and/or M&A activity. TM mentioned something about some outstanding warrant validity. Maybe it's that? If, after saying they have funds to complete the study just last week, they still raise before then. We call an EGM and parker goes.

The company isn't stable enough for another death spiral finance type deal. We'd be at 2p in no time. Parker would last until the end of the year. They said they had enough funds to complete the Tox study, just last week. As usual a no context RNS changes sentiment here, it isn't good enough.

As far as I can remember, every joint broker we've ever appointed has been to raise funds. It would be silly to think it's for any other reason this time. However, IMO, Sareum are not investable at this time. Not until the Tox study is successful so, maybe this time it is different? Generally you don't need a joint broker to make deals unless they are complex or the lead broker has a conflict of interest. My guess is access to investors (not likely yet), joint venture, maybe, but still a dilution of sorts or a complex deal with multiple stakeholders, 737 for combo has lots of moving parts?

I'm on leave this week, so this is my complimentary RNS that I usually get. After the last few weeks, I'll take it.

**** or bust. 1 tyk2 compound alone is worth that at the end of phase 2.

I wouldn't vote for anything less than £2. Even that is low ball IMO. The way I see it is, the TYK2 compounds are either worth nothing or hundreds of millions. Yes you could take 50p on the way up but I wonder how many of you would. It's been a funny couple of weeks. Relief that we appear to have a second go at this. Disappointment that we never seem to get anywhere. Listening to JR's bit again. He said they had used this formulation before without issues. The final emotion is an anxiety that it just won't happen for Sareum. The AIM graveyard is full of products that didn't fail but the company failed to monetise the product.. if the board exhaust every avenue open to them and still fail. Then at least they tried but the Comms has to be better. Whether it be via RNS or tweets, let's have a running commentary. First dosing, as sending doses etc.

I feel for the likes of Matty and I said last week. If you felt over exposed waiting on that RNS. You probably are. You gotta do what's right for you.

Sareum are listed as attending bio Europe. 4th and 5th Nov I think. It isn't listed on Sareum web page though.

IMO, 737 needs its patent protection extended, somehow. Think someone said 7 years remaining? The cost of phase 2 combo trials and the time to get to market will mean it's virtually worthless as a profit-making drug. Once the patent runs out, any pharma can use it. Patent notwithstanding, I genuinely think it's worth £800 million on a successful Phase 2 combo. You never know, JR might be working on it. If it was a submarine patent, logged by a third party, we wouldn't know where to look.

We're saying the same thing krone. 1801 appears to be ok. But the vehicle and it excipients now need to be synthesized and reformulated and they need to go through the same strict procedures to get there. They can't use an data from this last trial as it's a flawed. You don't need to subscribe to Damion's worst case scenario but he's probably spot on with the assessment of where we are. Unless the investigations find a really silly mistake in the last vehicle formulation. This process now starts from where we were this time last year. Why does anyone think it will be sooner? The compound isn't going into phase 2 until it passes the extended tox study and any partners can sit this out as it's all Sareums risk so Unless we get a curve ball from 737. There won't be any "nice surprises" for Christmas.

When the investigations are completed we really could do with another interview but I suspect we will need to wait for the AGM for any kind of update.

The question mark hanging over 1801 isn't the 1801 compound. The question is can they synthesise a formulation that will allow sufficiently high doses of 1801 to be given for a prolonged periods of time without causing major side effects. It seems the last attempt failed and the trial had to be halted.

So they now try again. "Original scope' is more than likely the key phrase here. Does that mean what they used in p1a or the original scope for the Tox study? I guess, We will never know.

All correct krone but there is a big question mark hanging over 1801 and therefore 1802 and probably the new neuro indications. Why would anyone do a deal until that question is answered? It wasn't a confident presentation, no excitement just a clinical delivery of the regulatory facts. The other anticipated news. Data publication, CNS indications, may move the dial a little but IMO, if nothing from 737, we have another year to wait.

I think I listened to a different call than you guys. Tox study to start from scratch. Resynthasis and a new formulation in parallel. If the study starts first week January, End of June minimum for any hint of news. Most likely this time next year for any news. The Tox study results will have a knock on effect of all the TYK2 compounds in the pipeline. Unless it was a really clear and silly mistake by the CRO, no pharma will touch the TYK2 until proven safe. Best we can hope for this year, is data manuscript published.

Half a million sells this morning. My guess is most trades have been buys to balance the books. Very tight spread?