Member Info for potnak

I have no idea why LSE stripped every upper case letter out of my last post!

the phase 1 paper is one of those things we just don't know. from memory jr confirmed the paper had been submitted. i think on the interim results im. but as far as i can remember he didn't say when he was just answering a question. if we take that as a start then we are 6 months into timescales that usually take between 4 and 9 months. they (parker) first mentioned publishing the data way back in the second half of 2024. so that could mean we are way past the usual timescales. this is the thing that makes me think there is some heel dragging. jr only confirmed the paper was submitted around the same time the first tox study was halted. what were they doing before that?

if it lands in q3\q4, it will be 2 years since parker indicated the would publish. if it lands just after tox dosing complete and i'm time for a conference. it's a beautiful coincidence or there is ****ery a foot . ha ha

i'll ake it but also predict a raise when\if the peer reviews confirm that the bio markers observed are hitting the same pathways as tak279 was in the same position.

I don't want confuse things. HBD is correct. Mid June for end of dosing period. All I was saying is, there is a mandatory 3 months dosing needed to move onto phase 2. So if we take Feb 17th as the start date. May 17th is the 3 months. The dosing will still continue until 16 weeks is up.

This is more for my benefit. I'm looking to buy a few more before the study ends. I will wait until the 3 months timeline is completed. And buy a few. Then if no major adverse effects in the final weeks. This hurdle will be done and we should see some buying.

Because they will be dosing at many multiples of the clinical dose. We will need to wait for the data to see how the animals do after dosing. I know JR thinks we are clean and highly tolerable so 🤞

So 13 weeks. Id say 2 weeks tomorrow will be the end of week 13. It doesn't really matter but personally, I believe the SP is stagnant because of what happened last Oct. Getting past a mandatory milestone will give me a level of confidence that 1801 will indeed be phase 2 ready by the end of this year and that means, ready for a deal too.

I remembered something last night. Something JR said about tox studies. Not had much time to look this morning. But he says something like. 12 weeks (3 months) is the legal requirement to move onto phase 2 but they would go on to 16 week to over achieve. Some trials use the final 4 week to stop dosing a subset of the patients to see how fast they recover from any side effects. Then they can compare the groups. Not sure is SAR have this approach.

Anyway. What I'm saying is that week 12 (this week) is probably a mandatory milestone reached.

For those interested. The base baseline we have for valuation is Zasocitinib (TAK 279). It's isn't a direct comparison 279 is a highly selective TYK2 and 1801 is a duel TYK2 and jak inhibitor. But for the purpose of speculation. They are both aiming for psoriasis.

https://www.takeda.com/newsroom/newsreleases/2026/zasocitinib-phase3-clinical-trial-results/

This recent phase 3 data for Zasocitinib is indicating that it might become the standard of care in psoriasis.. 4 billion well spent if that is the case.

I know I bang on about TAK279 a lot but it's the closest thing we have for a baseline. If the SAR board can show an equal safety profile and efficacy. Then there isn't any reason why they can't do a discounted deal in line with the deal that Nimbus got. If the data shows that duel inhibition, TYK2 and Jak void increase might increase pasi scores then, who knows, 1801 could be best in class.

£1 does feel like a dream and it is super frustrating because we barely know anything. Not a criticism of the SAR Board btw, but the lack of data means, all we can do is look at comparable deals and speculate the value assuming SAR's compounds are at least equal to the competition.

There aren't that many ways to value a new compound. So. In theory, if 1801 even comes close to the tolerability and efficacy as TAK-279 then, with psoriasis as the chosen indication. We take the value of TAK-279, 4 billion dollars upfront at the end of phase 2. We then apply discounts because 1801 will only be phase 2 ready and we should be able to come up with a number the board will be looking for. Even with a licence. The upfront alone should double if not triple the share price. Add something for 737 and the share price could be over pound. IMO, £1 isn't dreaming. Anything over £3 might be but not £1.

Hey Colbalt. Would you sell for a pound? Or are you wanting the decision to be taken out of your hands? Genuine question. If the board can secure a licence for 1801 and 737 that allows the other compound to be further developed. Then £1 isn't far fetched. In this scenario, would you sell up? Personally, with a big chunk in my sipp. Unless. The board indicted more to come. I would (probably) sell a big chunk and crystalise the returns.

I'm kind of hoping it goes past that point without me having to make that decision.

Yes, PC. Fingers crossed. The first step is to complete the dosing, after which we'll wait to see if there are any adverse side effects. There is another hurdle before that and that is funding. The board have told us several times. They will need to find funding, PRIOR to negotiating a deal. For me that means this summer. Possibly on the back of successful dosing. 737 could bring in that funding but the language being used suggests that any negotiation is in the early stages, if at all.

The 737 P1 manuscript could drop and could also be a vehicle to raise off. Especially if the biomarkers suggest similar efficacy as other high value compound that are further down the road. I personally believe the publishing of this manuscript is being timed to land when the dosing for 1801 is complete. A double whammy for increasing value before raising.

So all being well, we look to the end of this year. We have all to play for this year, 2026. As I said yesterday. I'm looking to buy before dosing completes, with a view to selling and making a quick profit. The main pot will be untouched. Until £2 or some other trigger, we don't yet know.

Or all the above is rubbish and we get a TO offer, straight off the back of the dosing completion. Like you said 🤞

Drusus. These valuations are for Licence deals. Specifically for 1801 and 737. They range from 45p to £1.70. which is suspiciously close to the broker value of £1.76. A mid tier licence deal for both with 10% upfront could see us around over a pound a share. For buyouts, anything up to £450 million seems to be the mid figure. These are AI valuations though and you need to craft a realistic prompt to get industry valuations.

I'm not an expert here and I've tried a few different ways. PE based on future earnings, NPV based on potential market size, discounted for risk. They all come out around the same levels. We have a baseline for phase 3 ready with the Nimbus deal and that's 4 billion. What we don't know (yet) is how much phase 1 data and Tox study can be read through to phase 3 ready. The market suggests a 90% discount at this stage but that's still 400 million dollars just for 1801, add 737 into that mix and we are near the £450 million again. Unless we self fund 1801 phase 2 and wait. I personally don't believe we will go past that figure. It's a 20 bagger from here though. Id be happy with that.

I have a bit of cash waiting, maybe around week 14 or 15 I'll buy with a view to selling for a quick profit. I don't think the board are obligated to announce the end of the dosing period but the end does remove some risk so I'd expect the share price to reflect that. Did a few valuations with multiple AI models and the general consensus was around 56p prior to a deal, 76 to 118p after a deal. should be fair value. Of course, we know the company intends to raise cash prior to a deal too so I suspect the market will react cautiously.

Thanks PC. I hadnt seen that either. Lots of expectation setting. All good though.

I still think 737 will be a JV deal or an outright sale. Both deal types, would package up 737 and give it a value. I went back through the chairman's corner, yesterday and in the Jan one. Parker said they were continuing to review the company structure to make sure it's optimal. I wonderdd at the time what he meant but maybe setting up spin offs (JV) is optimal? Low touch but packaged and valued ready to sell if needed?

The pivot from 1b to tox study and phase 2 will alway be a mystery to me. They key point in your post is 'lack of leverage'. Because we don't have any leverage, Sareum are playing someone else's game. The higher values come with efficacy and we dont yet have that. The tox study will give us a great safety profile but still no efficacy data so IMO, we'll wont see those high valuations until phase 3 or even even later. I appreciate the board are constantly walking a finance titerope but the pivot (as advised) meant that, the shareholders carry the risk and it almost backfired last year.

I'd agree with the current valuation, possibly somewhere between. 250 and 600 million for everything. More if what was seen in phase 1 regarding immune response can be read through as implied efficacy.

Just got to get this study pout of they way. Then we shall see

It all depends on what the end game is. SRA737 is a standalone compound. Not only that, it is part owned with ICR/CRT and because of that it would need a standalone valuation in any of the scenarios open to us. Even if we got a licence, we can only use 63.5% of the value created for the compounds that SAR 100% own the rest would be paid to ICR/CRT. A buyout scenario is slightly different but unless it was full buy out. It would become very messy. It makes complete sense at this stage, to do a standalone JV where the partner holds the IP or just sell it to the highest bidder. Of course, the board should keep enough back to pay for a 1801 phase 2 trial and at least 2 years running costs but depending on the indication. A compound that's has already gone through phase 2 could be worth 100's of millions. Some of that could be used to derisk the shareholders too.

It's a bit of a moot point though. In the Chairman's corner. Parsaid that 1801 is the priority which for me is setting the expectation that 737 news will come after we get 1801 news.

Yes, agreed re 737. The board have an opportunity here to generate some actual value for the the shareholders. They could, in theory. Sell 737, fund 1801, provide a 2 year cash runway and pay a special dividend to shareholders. I personally think the compound could be worth more than you say but we'd need it because Sareum only get 63.5% of the value. But even so. A top end valuation could, should be enough to give back a £1 dividend.

Utar. Personally I think £500 million is the minimum the board should be negotiating for. We have some good baseline valuations and real world deals to draw upon that backs up this figure to. However, if £300 million was the figure the board landed on. It would be because they've taken it as far as they can and a lot of us here would still take that for the win that it is. Personally, I wouldn't vote for anything less than £3 unless the board recommended we do.

The crazy thing, Ben. Is a 300 million market cap isn't much more than the all time highs here. 1801 and the new CNS indications have the potential to bring that much in, just on the upfront.

Yes, week 11 this week. I think we can presume that the issues with the excipient is behind us but the very nature of the long term study is to keep increasing the dosage with no major side effects.

An assumed 15% share of a 3 billion market equates to around 250 million in buyout valuations. Sareum would get 67% of that. There is possibly a bigger potential and that is the DDR for combo indications where the buying pharma want to summpliment their multi billion valued lead assets. The point being. Once you own it. There are dozens of combo indications that could trialed.