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There are at least 12 million shares in traders hands, probably a lot more. That's fine by me, by the way but £1 is a 10 bagger for the 10p shares and some here will make over a million in profit if we get to £1. On the flip side, some here won't even break even with a £1 share price. The new shares have reset the baseline where 50p will be fair value and we will be grateful for it. Like I said, ive no issue with traders but most of those who added large amounts will be gone way before the risk of trial failure is a thing.
The knock on effect of the RF facility. The shares in issue was approx 68 million before RF, it's likely to be over 110 million when all this is done. So a £2.5 million loan will have, directly and indirectly added over 40 million shares in pot. We won't go into the 90% reduction in the market cap.
Laz, I admire that you can be positive and forward looking here but this forum is for all views, good or bad, whether you are a shareholder or not. I agree that, for now, we are stuck with the board and they need to get on with the job but the reality is, the company has been badly managed since around 2018. We were promised trials within a year from 2018, they raised, promised, raised, promised, and so on until now, where the boards last big decision nearly killed off the company for good.
There are some here that willfully ignore that all roads lead to the board, they are in control of this company and the buck stops with them, always. Stop giving them the benefit of doubt, stop implying that things could be worse. Stop trying to put a positive spin on, what is a massive dillution.
The shareholders risk their cash hoping for a good return, we acknowledge the risks and we are patient but we also need to be confident that the board will do what they say they will. Frankly, the goodwill we gave them has been squandered and they got too comfortable. They need to know that, there is no more good will. IMO, they are avoiding any sort communication to the shareholders because they don't have the answers and public apologies will crystilse the feeling that they aren't up to the job.
We speculate here because the communication is bad. We are left second guessing every RNS that is released. IMO, they haven't learned their lesson and they will continue to obfuscate because the truth is probably worse than most here think.
As it stands, 737 aside, the director buys last week probably means there is no immenent news due from Aus. RF will know this and will keep drawing down because they know that when the sp does go up. They have an option to purchase the warrants at 10p. The whole RF saga will cost in the region of 40 million shares and any future deal won't take this into account so if a deal is worth a £1 SP, then the initial £2.5 loan will have cost the shareholders £40 million. If by some miracle, the SP reaches £10, the total cost to shareholders is £400 million.
Yes, we want the board to succeed but the above is mostly of their own doing. The fact that Parker hasn't gone probably means he is a vital cog in negotiations of the deal we all hope they are making. That's about as positive as I can get right now.
Math Prof is correct, we will just keep giving RF shares until the £800k is paid. It's a sh*t show. Just chucking more dillution on top of dillution. We'll be at 106 million shares when all this is done. We were under 70 million before RF came along. As well as the 90% loss in value, That £2.5 million they lent us will have cost 40 million shares. You can't spin this any other way but appalling.
We don't know that is Boundless. I mean it almost certainly isn't as they already have a CHK1 compound. They did fit the bill though. Was a Privately held bio (Just done an IPO). I can't see that ICR would license the compound without some stringent causes around the development.
I still think 737 has gone to some of the original Sierra team and they will put a data package together for a combo trial to gain further funding or sell on once-in trials. We will find out soon enough or it will get handed back and we'll be at square one again.
I think we will see trading all the way to a £1. To use the language of the internet boards, every 10p is another bag for those that bought in the market. I guess we don't know what broker note Hybridan put out to its clients when recommending the offer but when\if we hit that, I think we will see quite a few sells. Any Hybridan clients here or on the Telegram group?
MM Code 400, Trade Sideways posted this morning. If you believe that sort of thing. I don't believe MM's would still use this method but there has been some good posts on Reddit where coders have track the so-called MM's codes and than tracked what the MM's did with the share price. So who knows?
Jeez, Billy, That is a holding! I guess £1 would mean a good year for you. I'm expecting good news from Oz and a partnership, especially if non-dilutive will see us nack over £1 If 737 news comes as well, we might push towards £2 or at least past the point where RF came on board.
I'm in agreement that if the SP start to rise, it won't matter. Mainly because there are 24 million new shares bought at 10p. Some of those are in sticky hands but 20p is double your money, 30p triple and so on do we will see some profit taking. We all know this is going up but the RF facility is a phycological drag and I personally don't think the sp will rise much if we keep seeing the afterhours sells. Having said that, I think we probably have more RNS due.
So RF must use the warrants to settle debt, if they don't fully settle, Sareum settle the outstanding balance on or before the maturity date? If this is the case, then RF need the SP to rise the sell the warrants before the maturity date. This way, they will make more profit.
As of March 26th the balance was still £1.1m owed. Which we will give the shares to cover. RF looked to have sold heavily in the last week, maybe the whole lot of shares we have them but that would still mean we own them £1m. My question is can we wait until the sp is higher, if not, that's upto 10 million extra shares on top of the last dilution, they will flood the market with these shares and that will suppress the price until they are gone. Or do we pay them off with the extra £800k raised from the wrap?
Probably and yes.
Unless we get a change of broker RNS, we have to assume the PH are still Sareum's joint broker. Fro all we know, they might be brokering the deal we all want. That is literally what they do.
RF will be around until the finance facility is paid off. Question is, in terms of dillution. Is it better to settle the facility with cash or more dillution via warrants. The extra £800k raised via the extended wrap cost us 9 million in extra shares into the pot. RF would have to pay for the warrants at the reduced warrant price which, I have to admit, I can't find. With my very limited accounting skill. I think it's better to settle now because we've already taken the 9 million share hit and the cash is extra to the original wrap terms. Otherwise, assuming all goes well, there will be a final dillution before the Aug 2025 end date and and depending on the warrant price, this will be in the millions of shares. If we do get a deal with a decent upfront, I'm in agreement with others here, the board should issue a share buyback. Everyone who bought low would make some profit and there would be less shares in issue. Win win.
Hybridan will have a lust of clients on their book. The placing offer will be offered to those clients at the fixed 10p a share, Hybridan will take a small fee for brokering the transaction. Some clifnrs may be HNWI, some may be small institutions, some could be share clubs etc.. But essentially most of the shares will have been allocated already, probably to retail investors.
They would go bust, simple as that. All I'm saying is look at the sar board before blaming every other player in this game. You've paid extra on top of a 90% loss in value to buy more shares and the extra shares have reduced potential future value of your shares by 30%. I'm not saying it's wrong, I just don't think it's something to celibrate. I have no emotional connection to SAR and that allows me to see all sides of the story. And if that means acknowledging that, statistically, sar only have a 10% chance of getting to market, that I will acknowledge that. If i had taken Puma advice last Aug and sold but waited. I could've bought close to a million shares in the wrap. Should the price ever reach £10. I would have built the statue myself, in that scenario.
They will be offered to anyone who wants to buy. The big RF sells last week was probably because they knew that they will struggle to sell after the shares enter the market tomorrow. hybridan might have some clients in ready to buy but IMO, they will go on the open market. And as I said 24 million share will take a few days or weeks to clear.
I don't know what you are asking, SOG. I have broken one of the all time golden rules. Never add to a losing position. I been adding since last Aug too. I sometimes think people here just want to argue. The fact is the new 24 million shares have diluted the whole pot by more than 30%. It doesn't matter that you bought more, it doesn't matter that the RF facility drove the price down or Peel Hunt or MHRA or Mm's, shorters and womble. What matters is the board are in control of this company, they make the decisions and the buck stops with them. Take the emotional connection out of the equation and you will see things differently. It is the last chance for the board to make good or the next placing will be 2p and we'll have 200 million shares in issue. Just look at VAL for an example of how this can play out.