Sapan Ghai, CCO at Sovereign Metals, discusses their superior graphite test results. Watch the video here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Agreed Surety. Let's hope Jimmy is right about the 1 TCF.
Duncan hardly even mentions the deeper prospect in his most recent webinar though. I would think if there was even an outside chance of a discovery of that size, it might have been mentioned. It's not like chariot to be overly cautious/pessimistic with their outlook.
Cavendish (Was Cenkos) have c. 71p if Energean take the option of the extra 10% and fund, with their current guidance at 58p. Stifel and Peel Hunt are at the lower end, with the lowest target at 35p. Auctus are in the middle at 50p and SP Angel seem to be increasingly bullish about M&A on high risk exploration assets.
On the 18th March, Stifel then published a short note saying the Power business in a full divestment could be worth 10p. Clearly ambitious, but interesting against the relative backdrop of a c. 35p target..
Of particular interest though is that Auctus then published a note on the 10th April referred to as 'gearing up to drill' The note relates to Loukos and Anchois, with an emphasis on Chariot prioritising Gas. No surprises.... ;-)
It was this note that I found particularly interesting though in terms of the reference to Loukos. They are quoted as saying 'there is more value there than we originally thought due to the deeper plays.' They value Gaufrette at 6p for 10 BCF unrisked a further+2p for the deeper sands and 4p unrisked for the wider Dartois area at 12 BCF. This totals 12-13p with rounding.. for 22 BCF.
The point is that if Jimmy's view is right and there is significantly more in Loukos this should seriously rocket.
DYOR
This is the thing Ianfer.
In reality, Analysts are probably the most qualified to place a valuation on any business, and, if they’ve done their DD and homework correctly, should be able to value a business using industry standards, risk and asset value. Whether they are ultimately correct or not, depends on whether the company delivers on its objectives. What an analyst can’t do is control the market or decide who sells or buys shares.
What investors tend to do, is base their “I’d be happy with a a buy out at XXp per share” on the current share price. If we were valued correctly at the moment, I suspect nobody would be happy with a 30p offer. Just because we are massively under valued by the market, doesn’t mean the analysts are wrong.
I’d go as far as to say, that assuming all goes to plan over the next few months, Malcy will probably be closest with his guesstimate.
Whimax - as the sp has already hit 20p before various issues of further progress have occurred and the "analysts" (usually optimistic) are going for around 50p (Malcy's quid is a bit dreamy at the moment) I think 25-30p is a bit realistically on the low side based on what is known (and guessed!)
Are people just picking numbers out of hat here, or is this 25-30p actually based on any kind of calculation, either post On Shore and/or AE?
Thebold Haha an offer of 25-35p "would also not even get to SH knowledge" - I think it would. imo the BOD would not be able to keep it to themselves.
"Forget about a TO full stop" "they don’t care if SP is rock bottom" - it's pretty rock bottom now which is why imo there's a good chance of a bid. If the on-shore turns out to be worth more than 8pence a share I can't see those in the know with plenty of dosh just standing by without diving in seriously. They won't be whispering in the ears of A.P. and saying "can you keep a secret? I'd like to bid 30p for your Company but don't tell anyone else!"
IMO Forget about a TO full stop, the clues were already given , the board will NOT allow it , they want to ride this gravy train for many years to come , they already refuted at least one which was not even put to SH vote. … we could see an offer of 25 -35p put tomorrow and I suggest it would also not even get to SH knowledge. So with that, they don’t care if SP is rock bottom, they won’t entertain a TO and they get far more freebie shares , the lower the SP and the VWAP.
I doubt we’ll see a takeover here, in the short to medium term at least.
The share price in the 6 months preceding the Farm Out announcement was between 14p and 18p (roughly) and AP confirmed at the conference call, following the Farm Out, that the offer made for the company was dismissed out of hand and not high enough.
I’m assuming that offer was at least slightly higher (north of 25p) than the highest price of 18p during that period.
I doubt anyone would make an offer now, ahead of the 3 drills in the next 3-4 months, and I very much doubt AP would entertain one.
@batterseafish most of the shareholders who bought from 2017 till 2023 will be in loss or barely break even
Ian
There is a space, a window of time, in which your hypothesis fits and as such it is one view of what could happen but as with all nefarious dealings, it is hard for us to see what is the wood and what are the trees.
If they are going to push out a takeover here, we should find out soon - all that hard work of dropping the price could be undone by the drill bit in the next three months.
Personally t/o or drilling - this share price should rise in the medium term imho.
Have a look at Trinity take over just announced.......
A lot of stuff makes no sense. We can guess till all our hair falls out.
Someone/Company owns 6% of a Company they think is a winner and wants to put in a bid for the lot. The sp is 18pence. A bid at 24p may not work but would send the shares to 28p making it harder to buy the lot. So they start to sell their 6% pushing the sp down. They do it in small chunks over a few months. The B.O.D. are kept abreast of their intentions maybe because this is the way to get the small investors to get rid. The sp is forced down to 8p. A t/o bid then comes at 25pence which now sounds more attractive with the shares being low. The takeover turns out to be by a consortium involving Energean, A.A. and the B.O.D. The takeover suceeds because the private investors are fewer and their patience has run out. Covalis steps aside making a nice turn on their investment which they were holding to assist in the bid. They hive off the renewable side to some company they've been liaising with to tidy up.
Surety,
If you were a hedge fund trying to make money out of the trade, then what you suggest makes a lot more sense ;-)
CFDs are banned in the US because the regulators believe they incentivise manipulation because of a lack of transparency. Make of that what you will.
BDC,
Conversely though.. I suppose you could sell the holding, to drive down the share price in order to drive a significant return on a CFD short position that you simultaneously had open.. or is that over thinking it?
IMHO
If the position
Whimax,
Your words...
"Nothing dodgy at all imo.
We have had a distressed seller and someone has negotiated a buying of all of their holding in 1 go.
I don’t see why that’s such a stretch. Also nothing to do with tax year.
TR1s in the coming days will tell who has sold and who have bought imo.
We won’t know till the TR1 comes out, but I suspect Covalis imo. They’re only ones I’m aware of with those kind of numbers."
Ianfer,
'Yes it is hard to believe but if you are so confident of a sp you would do it.'
You wouldn't sell your stock if you were confident of the SP going higher, you would fund the margin call out of working capital. Selling the stock, especially 1.5% of the entire share issuance would cause the SP to decline. The CHAR share price dropped to its lowest point just prior to Covalis announcing that it had sold 45% of its holding.
We don’t think that. Well I don’t anyway.
There were 2 sellers imo. The first one started immediately after the Farm In RNS, and the second one was Covalis, possibly as a result of the first.
I thought that was clear.
Surety,
'This doesnt quite make sense... assuming we think that Covalis triggered/accelerated the collapse in the first place, partially, by selling down... why would you do that.. and maintain an open CFD position..'
Exactly.
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Well, I have just googled it LOL. A bit different meaning in my language.
Let's see what the future brings here. I am quite confident due to buyer and upcoming news flow
Pubesz (do you know what 'pubes' means?)
I would view the possibility of a T/O bid as almost a certainty. Hostile or not.
The other point of note is that Simon Thompson has been unusually quiet.. it's almost 5 months since he last published his 'hold' advice and words to the effect of 'when the dust settles expect the heavily oversold shares to bounce'
Good conversation on this forum today, btw! This is exactly the sort of thing we should be exploring/discussing..
DYOR
This doesnt quite make sense... assuming we think that Covalis triggered/accelerated the collapse in the first place, partially, by selling down... why would you do that.. and maintain an open CFD position..
DYOR
Is it possible that Char itself is delaying any update to allow these HNW to complete their buying/selling at these levels. So that when the news lands the runway has been cleared for take off, or to look after these large interests? I know they are waiting for the Rig, and that's the official explanation for the delay, but they are still rather quiet nonetheless and so I just wondered.
** sp re-rate
Yes it is hard to believe but if you are so confident of a sp you would do it.