The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
@ianfer - the brokers give the chance of success for each onshore drill at 35%. So surely the 'worst case scenario' is also the most likely scenario. And this scenario would also mean cash gets depleted, and Anchois becomes the only string to the Gas bow.
I guess my definition of worst case scenario and @whimax's differs quite a lot.
@whimax I may have misunderstood your thesis then. I thought it was that a large seller was offloading and therefore that was suppressing the share price, or keeping prospective buyers away, and when that selling ceases there would be a big bounce. So I was wondering if that seller had stopped or not because the share price still seems to be struggling.
I know you think that a massive re-rate is coming any day now but I really don’t think the onshore drill will do much for the share price. Even if it comes in as chariot hopes (excluding Jimmy’s 1 TCF estimate), there’s just too little near term upside to cause much excitement, and frankly there’ll be more questions about where exactly the financing will be coming from.
I am more excited that the Energean share price is doing well. The stronger the position they are in financially come AE results, the more likely they are to go through with their option to acquire the extra 10% from us.
@whimax - any update on the large distressed seller?
2 weeks ago you said:
"Well, whadaya know!! Looks like the distressed seller has just cleared.
If anyone wants me to pass on any apologies to anyone, just let me know!!"
Is he still around, or has he cleared and there's just no interest in Chariot at the moment?
Yeah agreed GP and Ianfer. In my mind, there's really only one thing that really matters this year - and that's whether Energean exercise their option for the additional 10%. If yes, I think there's no reason we shouldn't climb to 50p or more - especially if AE results offer more upside. Obviously if they don't exercise their option then either the results were bad and they don't want to take FID (worst case scenario), or they do want to proceed to FID but don't want the extra 10% - this scenario would be problematic for Chariot I think.
I can't see onshore moving the needle much this year - the volumes are too low. Unless Jimmy turns out to be correct and they find 1 TCF down there. That might even be problematic for Energean and a buy out could be on the cards. But given that I haven't seen any real mention of this possibility outside anonymous internet forums, I'm not hanging my hat on it.
@Bankrupty - if you read through the posts here, it can be put down to one of 4 reasons:
1) It's those damn MMs
2) Someone is forcing the share price down to profit on their CFDs
3) Covalis is deliberately forcing the price down because they are about to buy us out
4) There is an anonymous large seller who was due to stop selling 2 weeks ago, but is having so much fun he is continuing to sell.
Importantly, you will note that in all 4 cases, it has nothing to do with the underlying company. And definitely nothing to do with the 4 months and counting it is taking to get the farm-in agreement signed off by Morocco, and the subsequent delays, costs and uncertainty that is causing.
Thankfully, a few members of the mythical telegram group drop by the '"Cesspit" (as thebold refers to us as) here occasionally, and feed us a few 2nd or 3rd hand rumours to keep morale up. I'm not sure what I would do without that.
Seems there has been a number of erroneous posts here lately - invisible website updates, imaginary Director buys, typos of TCF v BCF.
But I suppose it's not beyond the realm of possibilities that Chariot's next RNS is the announcement of a hydro-electric project in Bangladesh.
Still, a good week for the chariot sp. I'll take it.
I'm old enough to remember when Chariot stated that the NPV for Anchois was north of $1B, before promptly selling 45% of it for $10M and a few promises. Applying the same 2.5% RCF (Reality Conversion Factor) to this part of the business should result in net proceeds of $4.2M.
Anyone offering odds on AP and/or related parties making up a large part of the new owners?
Thanks for clarifying. Strange that there has been no mention of such a large potential discovery. I can see SDX did announce the successful LNB-1 drill but declared mid-case estimates of c 10BCF. Any idea what Chariot think as to why/how SDX overlooked such a resource?
Alright no problem. Just thought that because you took the trouble to post a supposed comment from him then you might have a view on what you were posting. Obviously not then.
And no I'm not a PRD holder, but I wish I was. They are up 5% in the last year. We are down 50%.
Don't be like that thebold. Everyone likes a bit of hopium. You must have something for us?
Genuine question about the comment you posted from Jimmy last week: is the inference that this first Loukos drill could lead to a discovery of 1.1TCF of gas in the deeper reservoir target?
I assume Fernan10's point was that there is substantial planned work. Neither a potential 3rd party farm down nor an EU grant will be quick, or maybe even possible at this early stage. In the meantime Chariot Green Hydrogen Ltd will require funding from its parent.
I see Auctus are maintaining their 'soon' rating on Energean farm-out approval. Was hoping they might have upgraded this to 'imminent'.
@GP
The only way there’d be a ‘distressed’ seller is if they were short absolutely everything. Because basically every asset in the world, other than Chariot, has been exploding upwards these last few months.
Remember 8 months ago when JMW promised 7 wells in 18 months, starting with a 4 well onshore campaign starting end of 2023? Those were happier times. It’s the hope that kills you.
@Fernan10 - more accurate and up to date than my back of the envelope calcs. Thanks for taking the time to do so.
I think ONHYM formally signing off on the farm in is what is causing the nervousness here - at least from my perspective. Not that they wont, but how long will it take.
Monday would be a nice day for an RNS.