focusIR May 2024 Investor Webinar: Blue Whale, Kavango, Taseko Mines & CQS Natural Resources. Catch up with the webinar here.
@BDC
Yes absolutely correct. In fact I think if AE is a success (increased flow rate/resource upgrade), and Energean exercises its option to acquire the additional 10%, then Chariot shareholders will be extremely well rewarded, completely regardless of Loukos.
Further to your point earlier about buying when the fear is highest, if Loukos does disappoint, then that could be the real opportune time to buy.
The issue with Nour is understanding what the partnership with Total actually means. The devil would be in the detail and we just aren't privy to that. I was having a call with a very clued-up person from the green energy industry earlier today, whose point of view was that Chariot could end up with a small (~5-10%) completely free carry - probably a fantastic result given the potential size of the project.
This is a good conversation to have. And why I challenge the pumpers who say things like 'we are priced for failure on all 3 pillars' which is clearly nonsense. Wanna guess what the sp would be with failure on all 3 fronts? At least 90% lower than here.
On a more positive note, the Project Nour feasibility study results are due to be presented to the Mauritanian Government in Q1. Maybe that will have some nice upside, although frankly the terms of the JV are somewhat opaque right now.
@Ajilimon
JMW interview - check around 2:45 into it - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=METPki3mdQY - states '4 well drilling campaign starting around the end of this year (2023)'
Duncan's webinar - check around 7:30 - https://stream.brrmedia.co.uk/broadcast/64bfd25bbd4f8d76ddc59eb9 - 'around the end of this year and early into 2024'
The AGM (not sure there was a recording of it) - stated 'in Q1'.
RNS 5 Feb 2024 - 'Around the end of Q1'
@ianfer you're not wrong with any of those points, but here are some of the negative differences I see:
- Interest rates higher
- Gas prices lower
- Recession on the horizon
- Anchois farm-in deal has brought in more uncertainty - it may not go ahead.
- Anchois farm-in deal a lot less attractive terms for Chariot than imagined by most. Particularly around back-costs.
- Loukos has upside, but can also be a money drain.
- Morocco taking a while to ratify the proposed partnership. Unlikely to not go through, but taking so long for a fairly simple deal that they would have been well apprised of is not a good sign, because it is not indicative of 'fast-tracking' future decisions/actions.
- Linked to above, cash-burn is $1-2M per month. Put another way, each month is costing up to 2% of the market cap of the company.
- Management has missed deadlines, and constantly over-promised and under-delivered. Missed deadlines are particularly concerning given point above. Take Loukos for example - when the money was raised, the drilling was to commence by 'end of the year', then it was 'early in the new year', now it is 'around the end of Q1'. 3 months' delay (and counting) is material.
@theold but isn’t the most up to date report the auctus one that will have been informed by Chariot. That puts each of the two drills at a 35% CoS?
I still find it odd that some posters on here seem to think raising queries or doubts or pointing out obvious issues is some sort of traitorous act.
For instance one nagging doubt I have is how we seem to be somewhat vulnerable in the ENOG deal to either them running the clock on us til FID or even them taking FID but refusing the 10% option. Chariot having a low market cap and minimal working capital would seem to benefit them significantly.
Cue the usual brigade lambasting how I’m some sort of imaginary short seller with 23 different aliases…
@thebold
No I can see how it would be extremely hard to fool you.
I think I’ll pass on your offer to continue dialogue thanks. Can’t really see the attraction of forming a considered response only to be berated and insulted by an adult version of a playground bully.
But surely even you can appreciate there are a multitude of reasons why FID may not be taken. Perhaps none of them are likely but they are real risks.
See here you are being silly again @thebold. You seem troubled with the idea of an open forum allowing a free exchange of ideas.
WhatsApp have just launched a channels feature. That allows you to do one-way broadcasts to your followers. Might be more up your street?
@BDC
Interestingly Auctus had Loukos onshore prospects at 50% CoS until their December updated note which dropped it to 35%. Given Chariot would advise them on the input assumptions for their notes, it doesn’t scream confidence to me. It could be a case of wanting to under promise and over deliver but that would be a change in policy for them!
I appreciate your thoughts around onshore potentially being the foundation of the company. My concern is if Anchois doesn’t proceed for whatever reason, is there too much hubris in mgmt/the board to rightsize operations or will they want to go after another whale?
My hopes still reside around Anchois FID being taken. Assuming Energean exercise the imbedded option then that should easily support a 40-50p sp. FID with a development plan for 200mmscfd would catapult the sp much higher I believe.
Hi BDC. Thanks for taking the time to post that - I thought I was going insane.
Re onshore - we have similar views. I hope that base case success will put a floor of c 15 p in place, and arguably amplify the excitement around Anchois. Can I just check where the 65-85% CoS comes from? Auctus says 35% in their Sum of the Parts table.
My belief is the biggest opportunity for the share to give the sort of return most bought in for is success at Anchois East and flow testing that supports 200mmscfd. I haven’t plugged that into an NPV calc yet, but that would surely take us to 100p and beyond in very short order? Do you have any view on the probability of that occurring?
Well I apologize for my slightly snide remarks - they weren’t necessary. I took you for a poster who enjoyed a bit of banter judging by your first few posts, but it’s difficult to gage that online so, again, apologies for upsetting you.
Criticising me for posting an opposing/counter balancing view of what the future may hold though is frankly silly. That’s literally the very purpose for these forums. You call them ‘seeds of doubt’ - well to point out the obvious, Chariot is an AIM-listed penny share in the offshore gas exploration business with no proven track record. Oh and they’re down 50% in the last year. But I guess any ‘seeds of doubt’ should be kept quiet lest any potential new investors were to read these messages? I think most here if they’re being honest would wish that they sought and listened to opposing views over the past couple of years, as opposed to seeking confirmation bias in an echo chamber of positivity. I know I do.
But that’s in the past now. (Almost) everything is riding on the back of the next offshore drill now. FWIW I still think the risk v reward makes this an attractive gamble at this price.
Have a good evening.
Ah I see what you’ve done there. You’re saying maybe one day in several years time onshore could achieve 25mmcf if all drills are successful and they turn all wells into producers. Auctus are saying maybe Loukos could yield 5-10mmcf in 2025.
It’s ok. We don’t need a discussion now. As painless and enjoyable as that would have been.
@whimax
@theobold
You’re both championing the potential of the onshore campaign and stating net revenues to chariot of $48-60m per year. That assumes 25mmcf/day extraction rate. But even our ultra bullish Auctus broker says only 5-10mmcf/ day in 2025. Why are you expecting such a higher rate?
@Theobold - I know you're just saying it in jest, and might not be meaning to deliberately cause offence, but could you please refrain from referring to me as Mr PLO, without the W. You might not be aware, but PLO is an acronym for a political organization that rejects the state of Israel, and by extension is offensive to me. Thanks.