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OWLS, you're comment was simply nonsense. Here it is as a reminder
"1. Don't try and time the market. 2. Don't listen to any amateur on a forum."
On the one hand you're saying there is no value in anything posted on a forum, on the other you're advising people not to time the market', that in itself is an oxymoron. You're posting advice on a forum, while simultaneously saying that any advice posted on a forum is nonsense.
Worse than the fact you're talking nonsense, you're also belittling much of the hard work being shared by some of the knowledgeable posters on this forum. I might agree, that timing the short term ups and downs of a market is very hard and very likely to lead to losses. If I do that (normally due to boredom), I make a lot of 'errors' and it's not where I make my money. I might also agree, that it's wise to know your way around bb's and markets yourself rather than make decisions based upon the advice of bb participants. If you don't understand a trade, then you should not be in it as you are very likely to end up stressed and thrown out of the trade at an inappropriate time. You need to understand it for yourself and have some conviction in it. If you don't understand, you can't have conviction, if you have no conviction you're probably going to lose money or at best it's a straight gamble
STUPMY, I think you are overthinking my comment. "Don't try and time the marker" relates to assuming when the whole market goes up or down, not individual stocks.
I figured it might be a weak comparison as I don't follow those 2 companies closely. Shell has done well. I can't remember where it was 10y ago though. I know it's been up and down.
Stupmy: regarding your comment about BP as an example of UK share performance (this post is totally off topic regarding OCDO!)
I suggest you use Shel instead, for the simple reason that BP has had a tricky history since Macondo in 2010, its Green policy, its Russian assets and, more recently a dreadful Q3 2023 result which included a US project write down. They’ve also had major CEO issues and there’s been a lot of TO speculation. There may now be some upside to the share if they’ve got their act together again. Don’t forget also that Green issues affect companies more on this side of the pond.
Yes P, I thought it might happen so happy to have dropped some (wish I'd dropped a few more in fact, but no-one can see the future so it's often about playing likely scenarios. I took a good profit on shares, good profit on leveraged positions (all closed) and rationalised what was actually a slightly large position. I'm now in a position to buy back if I think its appropriate. I'm happy with what I've done so far.
Stumpy,
The spike was just sold off or got shorted gain by 20p. We are almost where we were before the US payroll data.
Easy.
ASAP.
Takeover coming imo.
That's almost ironic pheonixy. US flies up (not seen the data, but they liked it) and OCDO flies up with it!! I closed 25% at a good profit to rationalise what was too large a position built too quickly. I'll buy back happily if we drop back to 348 or below. It's not certain we will, but if this rise is not OCDO specific (I don't think it is) then it is easily possible that this will come back down simply due to market mechanics.
Phoenixy
the S&P/Nasdaq and the Treasury yields are two completely different things and a distortion towards the movement of Big Tech makes the overall picture of the exchange , well distorted ..
Shorters and traders here .... a number of them IMO just use it as a hedge , against say other positions...and a hedge against a Yield bet
If Yields go up then that is bad for shares, in general .. recent inflation figure worried the market, yields pushed up, and here it went down ....
now we await further data.... so.. less movement in the SP here, until the data comes out ....
IMO
Pokerchips,
I don't think Ocado cares about what happens in the US...whether it's NFP or job market, Fed's interest rates, inflation whatsoever. Even if Nasdaq moves up 1000 points in 1 week, Ocado will hardly react positively but if nasdaq falls 200 points or so, it reacts by falling 3-5%. Btw, Nasdaq is up almost 700 points and S&P 500 up around 120 points since recent lows, but Ocado is still where it was 2 weeks ago if not lower.(day yet to finish|)
Thanks PC, just makes no sense to me not to consider value. As soon as you try to achieve value, you're timing.
Boyo "Selling portions on highs, topping back up on lows and offloading if it starts to fall below set limits are essential actions, especially with speculative and volatile shares. " It might even be worth adding 'with shares on the UK markets, they have not tended to rise consistently over time. Look at BP for example, good company, strong profits. I'm thinking UK markets over lets say 5-10 years. BP was around 475 10 years ago and is now 514. If you bought and held BP on the UK market over 10 years you'd have returned about 8% (not incl divis/inflationary losses, opportunity costs). If you look at US markets there are clearly some companies doing a lot better than that e.g. Chevron at 124 10 years ago, now at 160 gives a return of almost 30%. That's a facile comparison as I don't enough about these companies, but my point holds I think. The UK markets have not been ideal for buy and hold strategies over the last 10 years. Another way of looking at it could be 'timing', if you'd been sharp enough to buy BP in Nov 2020 at 191 and hold it to now at 514, you'd have returned 170% in 3 and half years. You have to be sharp enough to do it, and everything is a no-brainer in hindsight and nothing is a no brainer off the rhs of the chart. But if you can 'time', then 'time', particularly in the UK market.
RetireGuy: Your question is about ‘buying back in’ but you also say ‘before I realise the loss’ which technically implies you still hold the shares. I’m assuming that you are in fact currently out of OCDO but haven’t yet walked away from reinvesting at the right price. You also mention ‘leverage down’ which could mean borrowing money to invest in the hope of recovering your losses. Given your past experience in controlling your investment in OCDO I don’t think you should be encouraged to compound your losses by taking on more risk, especially if that involves incurring debt. If you are only debating what to do with the last 15% then that’s somewhat simpler but even then it should firstly depend on whether you could put the remaining cash to better use. Only you will know that
If I’ve understood you correctly, it seems that if you had all the original cash back in your hand today you wouldn’t put any of it into OCDO? If that is true then it makes no sense to do so with the last 15%. However, if you still think OCDO has a genuine chance of significant recovery, have no better uses for the money and are prepared to risk further loss, then retaining some investment in OCDO may be a reasonable option. Every investment needs to be managed - to buy and forget is a bad approach. Selling portions on highs, topping back up on lows and offloading if it starts to fall below set limits are essential actions, especially with speculative and volatile shares. So you need to be prepared for that. Regarding the lowest price OCDO may achieve then, not forgetting zero, £2.40 is a possibility but that significant drop requires the sp to fall below the current support level at about 340. On that basis it may be wise to wait and see which direction the sp takes from the current level over coming weeks and whether the major short interests in it begin to unwind. It’s your cash, your choice.
I think the market today looks like it is betting that the US jobs numbers will show some weakening , taking some pressure off the 10y and 2 y yields
Depends how they want to present the numbers ...the Q1 GDP drop could mean fewer job openings etc
Stupmy
I agree with you.... timing the market ....
yes...Japan .... a professional would not seriously bad time that market, simply because it is largely connected to the changing value of the YEN ,interest rates and the role of BoJ etc ..which any professional knows ... so you certainly would never just dive in , with some kind of "time in the market" idea, within a peak bubble kind of environment, unless you are a very inexperienced private investor , I guess
It is the same with emerging markets which tend to be cyclical based on currency,lending rates and whther Dollars are flowing into them or out
Thanks Sangi, I've given it some thought and it truly is a nonsense. It's based on moderate returns on US composite markets e.g. US500. If you chart it, it looks like a no-brainer and it's undeniable that just buying and holding a tracker would have given a sensible return. However, having to skill to identify google, amazon, apple etc early and hold those would have done a lot better. Take a look at the Nikkei, if you'd bought that in 1989 then time in the market would have been very damaging to your principle indeed. It would have taken 40 yrs to get back to square one and that ignores opportunity cost and inflation (perhaps less relevant to Japan) related losses. I promise you, that if you think about it, timing the market will give you a much better return than 'time in the market', but if you can do both together with selecting the winners of the future (Buffet), then you'll probably get the best of all worlds together with some stability and safety. I just work on the timing bit and it works well for me, but I spend most of my time on the sidelines waiting for what I believe is a good opportunity. Then I comitt to it and work my positions around falls and rises to keep my entry prices in line with the SP. When it does rise, I don't have the comittment to the company itself to stay in forever, so I take my profit and drop it and wait for the next company to meet my criteria.
Ok Stupmy, you are right
No he's not really Sangi, he times the market. Do you think it's random that he's been accumulating Occidental over the last 2 or 3 years. He's doing it because he thinks it has represented value over this time frame. That is timing the market. In addition he believes POO will rise in the future, that also is timing the market. What he does is 'hold forever'. But he's better able than most to recognise a stock that's worth holding forever. I'm not vain enough to think I can do that, I certainly don't have the knowledge to pick long term winners with consistency. He does, so he holds long term. But believe me, he does not enter markets randomly. He waits until he believes that they represent value and will accrue value in the future. He times the market.
In fact the 'time in the market, not timing the market' nonsense appears to have originated in 2020 or thereabouts and believe came from a fund manager. I'd imagine not a very good one. Fund managers have to drum up money for their funds and to do that, they're happy to use soundbytes for the masses, those unable to navigate the markets themselves or those with too little time to learn it/do it. It's still a nonsense but it's a soothing one if you don't know what you're doing.
Stupmy- Buffett is pretty much the originator of the don't try to time the market idea.
He made money from learning as much as he could about a business and then sticking to his convictions.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/buffett-on-market-timing-165102647.html
I've just had a quick look at your posting history OWLS and so many of your posts are about timing the market (or not being able to do that despite admitting that you should have done) that you're last post on this board is truly laughable. In fact, I didn't see a post that held any value at all.
There's no such thing as 'not timing the market', even professionals do it. Everytime they believe a market represents value, it's being timed. the only thing that comes close to 'not timing the market' is a tracker fund. If you'd used one over the last 40 yrs it would have worked on the US500 and not worked on the Nikkei. You absolutely have to time your markets. Whether that is by fundamental understanding of a companies value at a specific time or using TA/charts or better still both. Do you really think the likes of Buffet randomly enter markets?
Also, if you use a tracker and it works let's say on the US500, you'd earn a lot less than the likes of buffet timing his entries on the likes of Apple.
1. Don't try and time the market.
2. Don't listen to any amateur on a forum.
I've been watching this for a while waiting for that 'good time'. Usually, i'm not massively fussed, you'll never buy the bottom and sell the top unless you're very lucky. But, with this one, i'm waiting for either some good news, and large volume coming into it, or the more likely scenario, that it gets booted out of the ftse and so decides to list on the nyse.
Incidently, the uk is in a very precarious position rn with companies not interest in listing here, if shell ups ship (due to the lack of brown envelopes) then its downhill from here. Certainly a turning point.
Anyway i'm not sure what happens to existing shares when the re list elsehwere, i'm guessing its more a positive than negative, so once i work that out, i'll be buying when the slipout of the ftse, but before they re list.
RG, no-one can see into the future. You have to feel your way around what is happening to this market. If you're 85% down, you've been wrong for a long time so I get that you would like the views of others, but I'm not sure it'll be helpful. Maybe you need to wait longer and try not to be speculative. I'm a bit speculative (sometimes snatch at things), but if you're sitting on a big loss, you maybe need more certainty (not that there is every certainty. Why not look for a 123 breakout from a low, i.e. low, high, higher low, higher high (that last higher high is your breakout). It's not a bad indication of a possible trend change.
"I'm sure you told us that OCDO is ‘no longer an expanding business with a static inflexible solution bathed in old tech….’"
Yes, my position is very clear (from a LTH perspective). FYI - I am down 85% now.
So, before realising this huge loss, my only hope of salvage is to leverage down at some mythical low point.
(e.g. Before people know Ocado is going stateside?)
I'll rephrase the question if I may,
When would the collected wisdom on here "pile back in". Should the decision be share price driven, or as a result of a possible event passing? (For me it is quite simple, When Ocado can deliver to my home address - it can't atm)
I'm sure you told us that OCDO is ‘no longer an expanding business with a static inflexible solution bathed in old tech….’
Have you changed your mind? Because, unless you have, there's never going to be a good time or price.