Member Info for Jonnn

This is getting priced like its just about to either fail, or massive dillute its shareholders.

Growth is still there, altho not flashy, esp in the automation side of things, which i know is where the market wants to see it.

Net cash improving, ebit looking to go positive, margins expanding, slightly.

Is the concern over delays? Or the Kroger deal?

Its being priced like everything is on the line for that one Kroger deal.

Right on its 100 day sma. Gold will smash new ath's with this cpi suprise. Great opportunity.

I dunno what to say to this level of pessimism on such an exceptionally performing stock.

Except, that theres two sides to every trade brother

Down we go?!?

Zoom out, it's been a relentless march for 12 months straight and doesn't look like its stopping any time soon.

Nice sarcasm but unhelpful.

Make no mistake, banning smoking wil absolutely decimate the sector. But the fact that JDW sp hasn't budged at all on the 'news' makes me think its complete bs.

It often happens around budgets in order to soften the blow of other things, when it turns out the 'big bad' thing doesn't happen. In this case, not lowering vat thats been much called for.

Oh but we'll let you keep youir smoking areas. Oh thanks comrade!

Curious moves all round lately. I still think the likely scenario here is a delist from london and onto the nyse. Altho, if there was ever to be a buyout offer put on the table...

The Morgan Stanley downgrade looks fishy, i don't know how its legal, but its pretty standard of big funds to downgrade stocks before buying them up and then re grading. Morgan Stanley could also be the ones managing the nyse listing if(when) it were to happen.... gut instinct says it looks shifty. Discount prices for its clients maybe...

Left in the same position, i still don't own, but have been watching and waiting. Buy now to catch the falling knife, or wait for the news, most likely at the next earnings if its happening at all.

(There is zero chance there is no positive news at the next earnings call btw. Every board member will need to justify their existence somehow with the current declining SP)

Not sure if i'm looking at this as essentially a share buy back, or an infinite money glitch.... Seems like theres more going on than meets the eye.

Say for example, those directors knew that they were just about to recieve an all cash buyout offer? How best to capitalise on that situation? How about a risk free way of acquiring a ton of shares? That loan would disappear when the shares are bought.

I kind of hope this doesn't get taken over, altho its been talked about in the past, and i'm sure it would be at a significant premium.

Maybe reading too much into it. Seems shady tho right? But in a good way for shareholders on the face of it.

I've been watching this for a while waiting for that 'good time'. Usually, i'm not massively fussed, you'll never buy the bottom and sell the top unless you're very lucky. But, with this one, i'm waiting for either some good news, and large volume coming into it, or the more likely scenario, that it gets booted out of the ftse and so decides to list on the nyse.

Incidently, the uk is in a very precarious position rn with companies not interest in listing here, if shell ups ship (due to the lack of brown envelopes) then its downhill from here. Certainly a turning point.

Anyway i'm not sure what happens to existing shares when the re list elsehwere, i'm guessing its more a positive than negative, so once i work that out, i'll be buying when the slipout of the ftse, but before they re list.

So this is going either direction right? Either you lose it all, or its 10x the current valuation. The french have a fine history of propping up companies that are important to them, this could be one of those too big to fail. If that is the case, the risk is how that translates to sp, if it stays listed at all.

Interesting opportunity though

Anyone else looking at this with inflation going nowehere? Japan has to protect the yen at some point.

Someone lumped £6 mil in one atm order this morning. Being a round number, in normal trading hours, suggests a buy/add rather than a 'sell'. Obvsly can't tell for sure, it's a guess. But adds like that suggests a bottom. Which the squiggles on the chart also suggests we're in or approaching, certainly don't want it falling past the 420 range.

I think if you believe in the company at all its certainly in a sweet spot to be buying.

I'm yet to be convinced, but i like the set up.

So many conflicting stories popping up over the last few days. M&S withholding a 197m fee? Yeah sure, as you do...? Somehow the market has reacted more negatively on Ocado than M&S for that, whereas the reasons behind it should equal bearish on M&S, if theyre struggling to either find the cash to pay it, or, the reasons they've literally given, that targets weren't met. Shrug.

Getting into the nuts n bolts of it, continued strong growth is expected in their robotics arm, which lets face it, is why anyone is invested in this companny. If you wanted solid UK based, boring but steady retail, youd be in Tesco. If these expectations are met, and obvsly the all important guidance is there, then this will get bid straight back up imo.

(Im not invested and have been waiting for an opportunity just like this one, to add a chunk of pf into this company)

Maybe let it make its way back to 8's first?

This is a go with my gut, not crunching any numbers here like i did with Rentokil and JDW.

Solid company, they' ve weathered the storm well so far, on the face of it. High street sales undoubtedly helped by the competition falling away, kind of easy to be the busiest clothes shop on the high steet when you're the only one eh.

But i think the same reasons those other stores have fallen away will catch up with Next eventually.

They are also going on a bit of a spending spree. Theres a lot of old men in retail still, the bargain hunters, the mike ashleys. These companys are cheap for a reason. They should be saving their money for buybacks to shore up the SP through the coming years, cuz the storms not over yet.

Don't get me wrong, they won't be going bankrupt any time soon, even if their numbers are suspiciously good. But a high street retailer SP at ath's going into a recession?

A healthy correction is in order.

So earnings were great, strong growth where is matters in the U.S.

So, why the dump?

Another post saying its Disney jumping into the space, but that should, and will imo, be a positive effect on the industry.

I think it was the confirmation of a US listing, which i suppose acts like a dillution, if not technically. Long term a us listing will push the SP higher, greater liquidity and more exposure to the growing hype on us sports betting.

Not sure what else it could be, as the guidance was fine also.

Nope. Sticking to my guns on this one, always prepared to eat some sht, and was well aware when opening a short with these sort of fugazi companies the SP very rarely matches the health of the company. High risk for sure, stops are set.

However, good op to add to the short position off this trading update as eoy, try as the might, they will find it hard to hide the ebit numbers or, specifically with this company, their D/E ratio, which the market will react most to imo.

Sales up 11% when your prices have increased 15% means your sales arent up. Companies like using the LFL sale figures, cus it can mean whatever they want it to. Industry food and beverage cost inflation is at 20% btw.

"We didn't sell those pubs cuz we needed the cash to pay our debts, honest, we just thought the pubs were too close to each other"

So yes, eating a bit right now, but holding. High risk for sure, as aslong as he can keep the core shareholders happy they won't budge. But they might do when the figures don't match the rhetoric.

Also, the ftse up off the back of the banks, plus being down for 3 days, gave this an extra kick. My only decision now is to add to the short rn, or wait til eod tomor. Might miss a golden op depending on u.s core cpi.

For now i'll take the abuse.

Where to start. They are a great example of a fugazi company, they never need to be profitable, aslong as they keep attracting that investment via growth. Except, when no real growth means that investment tap gets turned off, the SP goes to zero.

Margins crushed. Trade slowing. Minimum wage up 10%. They can't pass their cost increases on fast enough. Trying to sell higher to less customers, hows that gonna go i wonder, on a model designed around the opposite. They have 30 plus sites that they can't sell, but still have to pay the debt on. Everythings hit them at once.

One plus is their accounting. They bump stuff around to try make the balance sheet not look like the steaming pile of excrement it actually is. I'm sure they will try and push their debt out, again, but i'm gonna predict that their lenders may have a few revisions to make. Every site gets a 30/40% haircut, and at the same time we will increase your rate. Hows that sound? Cash flow then becomes a problem. So, only one option, dillution.

Owned for many years. Hold.

A while back, last year i think, there were rumours of Amazon starting to expand into the Uk, Halfords were mentioned in those conversations as a potential buy out. Since then looks like Amazon have put the brakes on their supermarkets, and any other splurge into UK retail. Can't think why.... Anyway, the same conversations were had with last weeks ocado rumours, which again seem to be a duff. Likely, with Ocado, this is wishful thinking, with every uk retailer getting bundled into the 'what if amazon buys it out' basket. I also can't see any big investor putting anything on table now, esp into the retail space, when they are guaranteed a significant discount in the coming years.

IF, and a big if, Halfords can weather this retail and CRE bomb that will significantly dessimate the sector in the coming years, they will come out in an extremely strong position. As with every retailer atm, its survival of the fittest.

For now i'm happy for it to sit in the long pf, doing very little.

False. 'A quick Google search' presents differing reports. The latest of which actually stating he still has a stake in AFC.

You guys need to chill. Its an asset to make you money, don't marry it.

For transparency i've been an investor if AFC energy since 2016, rarely use these boards, the reactions here a good example why.
The reason i posted is because there seems to be differing information wether Abramovic still owns shares, indirectly or not. There's a few recent articles stating he still owns a percentage of the company, altho i was under the impression he sold much of his stake after his visa troubles years ago.

I do not know the details, which is why i'm fishing for info on here.