We would love to hear your thoughts about our site and services, please take our survey here.
"I'm sure you told us that OCDO is ‘no longer an expanding business with a static inflexible solution bathed in old tech….’"
Yes, my position is very clear (from a LTH perspective). FYI - I am down 85% now.
So, before realising this huge loss, my only hope of salvage is to leverage down at some mythical low point.
(e.g. Before people know Ocado is going stateside?)
I'll rephrase the question if I may,
When would the collected wisdom on here "pile back in". Should the decision be share price driven, or as a result of a possible event passing? (For me it is quite simple, When Ocado can deliver to my home address - it can't atm)
"Retireguy: Regarding your point that Ocdo solutions is a static inflexible solution bathed in old tech…..
In your view, which warehouse systems are using more advanced technologies currently?"
I have mentioned this before - A static grid system is about efficiency.
I see Ocado as being at one end of the efficiency-vs-effectiveness scale which was a fantastic idea when it started. However, ALL recent tech innovation is improving business function MORE at the effectiveness side.
https://www.netsuite.com/portal/resource/articles/financial-management/business-efficiency-vs-effectiveness.shtml
Proof of pudding? - Ocado shares have plummeted
Let it be made simple for anyone who thinks about buying into this share.
Ocado is no longer an expanding business
Ocado solutions is a static inflexible solution bathed in old tech.
Ocado is no longer gaining new customers, if anything it is LOSING them
The boss of Ocado seems more interested in milking this dying duck, than actually growing it
Ocado is loss making
Ocado doesn't issue dividends
Only an idiot would be buying this share thinking it will soon go back to £10, let alone £28
Read it and weep
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/5-stocks-fools-think-overvalued-011800434.html
Https://finbox.com/LSE:OCDO/explorer/total_debt/
Its a busted flush
Over 5 years, the debt went from £600 M to £2000, with the time shifted SP moving from 2800 to 350.
The SP peak was due to an expectation of very high growth - But its collapsed/collapsing because the reality is 3 years of very high debt and no significant growth.
Anyone who still think this company has an "amazon" future and that the "SP MUST BE GOIN UP SOON" are going to have very burnt fingers
The signal for me to pile in will be when Ocado can deliver to my address (BTW, I can get 24 hour delivery from amazon and Morrisons)
The day that happens will be the day I will invest, but I suspect it will never ever happen now
The name "dead cat bounce" is based on the notion that even a dead cat will bounce if it falls far enough and fast enough. It is an example of a sucker's rally.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
- A dead cat bounce is a short-lived and often sharp rally that occurs within a secular downtrend.
- It is a rally that is unsupported by fundamentals that is reversed by price movement to the downside.
- In technical analysis, a dead cat bounce is considered to be a continuation pattern.
- At first, the bounce may appear to be a reversal of the prevailing trend, but it is quickly followed by a continuation of the downward price move.
- Dead cat bounce patterns are usually only realized after the fact and are difficult to identify in real-time.
Catching a falling knife is another....
"...Please stop spreading needless doom and gloom without having all your facts."
Heres some facts for you to ignore
- Shareholder revolt over bonus
- M&S litigation
- Ocado spokes being shut down
- SP trending down
- Soon to drop out to 250
- Ocado tech never became profitable, and never will now that it is a legacy platform
When the money runs out and Steiner has raided loan options to survive (After taking huge dividends), this share is more likely to end up as another "Cineworld" .
This is why Ocado's share price will never get back to its heights ever again.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sq1QZB5baNw
As for M&S spat, that just proves what a dead duck the Ocado model is.
There is good reason why Morrisons have a "looser" relatinoship with Ocado.
Put it this way. I ordered some drinks off Amazon last week. The next day I got a voucher for my first shop with Morrisons.
If Morrisons had stayed with Ocado, they wouidl not be able to do that - Ocado still can't deliver to my area - What a pathetic logistics business model.
....and meanwhile, the shares keep sliding.
Boyobach gave a good answer and for me, it agress with what I am saying.
The competition have learnt to easily gang up their facilities and locations, and provide a service that can be used TODAY.
If everythign weas so rosy. the M&S Ocado fight woudl not be happeneing - get your head out of the sand and smell the roses - there is no good news here, and even if I was a multi-id ( I am not!) , these facts are still the same.
So yet again, can anyone explain why the Ocado delivery model is bettter than Amazon?
It seems NO-ONE can
Can anyone properly explain why the Ocado delivery model is better than say Amazon?
Whilst Ocado still cannot deliver to my postcode, any purchase from Amazon is delivered next day.
In the face of AI capability continuing to advance (e.g. robots), Ocado seems to be nothing more that a dead duck in the water with it's "I need a big expensive warehouse to be local" approach.
I guess "beuatiful plumage, its only sleeping" etc.
@Newdealz - a few days ago you said
"If your locked in at a loss just down some day trading to add to your stock, dont put anymore in this share is fairly easy to trade to cover the stamp duty."
Day trading is not my thing, but I agree with your advice about not buying.
Whilst I am sitting on a huge loss, I am staying in because
a) I can afford to lose it
b) It is a useful painful reminder for me to read the stats properly before buying, and to never fall for what is on first inspection, a "jam tomorrow" technical wonderland promise.
Yes, Ocado did have "leading technology" in 2014 but nothing has really changed in ten years.
if you want to see how a tech company should be run, compare how Amazon has progressed in the same time frame.
If I run out of milk, a local Aldi is 1mile away.
If I go there, I can choose exactly what I want, when I want and be back home quicker and cheaper than it would cost from Ocado.
The Aldi model is the future - Not sone ludicrously massive 3rd party warehouse 80 miles away, running at a loss because it isn't being run at capacity.
Another 5% fall for Ocado today.
Yep - regarding the solution offering that Ocado serve.
It wasn't long ago that a grid system seemed the only way to efficiently select goods - A dumb wheeled robots went to a particular co-ordinate etc. Only a restricted vision AI capnbility was needed.
The latest chips are enabling autonomous robots with more advanced vision AI. This obviates the need for an expensive static grid system to bypass a restricted vision AI capability.
I believe the money is following what an advanced Vision AI can do on the next 10 years.
For me, it explains why the SP continues to sink.
I can pop into a supermarket nearby, order online from Ocado's many competitors and Amazon deliver next day here.
It would be nice if Ocado covered where I live.
People seem to forget what Ocado's main business is - a static efficient delivery system Advanced robotics and Chatgpt have moved on.
I look at Ocado's utilization as being similar to a hotel's OCC rate and current results ain't pretty.
Its not just that the Ocado model has being bypassed by robotics and the Chatgpt hype , the management of Ocado has spectacularly failed to build
I wish I didn't think this, and bitterly regret keeping these shares. The management of Ocado are clearly inept at growing a business.
The fatal flaw in the Ocado model is the current reach of its distribution. - Ocado still has ZERO local footprint.
The only hope is for Ocado to merge with an existing retailer. ops, oh dear - Ocado can't even do that without losing deals with helping competitors
What we are seeing, is on a par with steam train technology being replaced with diesel engines. Unfortunately, Ocado ain't diesel - if they were so good , I would be able to buy from them, but I can't, which is truely pathetic really