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Rsmithy007 and Shaun P.
I see you are both for keeping your shares and that the future still has plenty of positives.
I am exactly t he same as you and my initial reaction after seeing the massive drop on Friday was to sell. I didn't, but I'm sitting on a massive loss, but not as big as some on here. My reasons for hanging onto my shares and topping up regularly to as late as Friday morning was this BB and the positivity that fit my plan. However, I read a few more posts this morning and I've put a stop loss on for tomorrow for both my wife and I who have equal number of shares. Now I'm pondering whether I should cancel the stop loss. All this is causing me stress that I could do without. I'm erring on the side of cancelling the stop loss and not logging in tomorrow to watch the expected continued sell off! Turn away until the dust settles in the hope the bounce will come? But will it be enough?
My advise... If there's a Monday morning RNS, hold. If there's not, maintain a stop loss.
Just for some balanced views I am against stop losses. They lost my friends a lot of money in GGP a few years ago, if the market has lots of volume your sell may go through a lot lower than the stop loss. This can cause a big loss, better to sell yourself if you intend to.
But there might be an RNS at 12:30 or 4:30 or whenever !
Anything could happen tomorrow or any day thereafter.
Lets all hope for the best based on the sound foundations this company has managed to provide in such a relatively short time.
Brook.....I'm in eua, a couple of months ago after a rns saying a ex director had off loaded millions of shares the sp plunged from nearly 30p to 14.5p! The next day eua issued an rns to clarify the shares had been sold to a institution and the person concerned still geld 17 million. The sp within two days was back up to 28p....just a lesson there for everyone.
Brookr2144, my advice is, never use a stop loss on AIM. 2 reasons. First, if the price blows through your stop in a period of intense volatility, the stop will trigger the sell, but it won't set the price, so the price you get could potentially be much lower than you have indicated. Second, MMs can see where stops are, and will occasionally absolutely crater the price to take them out, before rebounding up very sharply - even inside a minute. They have all the control in such a scenario, you have none.
If you are determined to sell at a set price, you need to monitor it yourself, and make an active decision on when to sell. I would suggest you don't during the first half hour of trading as that's often the most volatile.
One final thing. Yes, MMs can go fishing for stops. But they have not dictated the very steep share price fall on Friday. This is because NCYT, in common with many AIM shares, has a large shareholder base of private investors who trade on sentiment not logic, so the fear and greed factors are amplified. Thus, rapid share price rises and falls are both overdone with much greater amplitude than those of very big companies where institutions are the main shareholders.
For what its worth, I think the selloff here is already chronically overdone,
Don't understand those that are suggesting game over? All the research suggests that COVID testing shall continue for many years, the vaccine alone shall not win the battle.
Also, Oxford Nanopore which is about to float and similar size diagnostics firms which are being taken over at valuations far in excess of our Market Cap.
I have the same dilemma and we know that this is AIM and anything can happen.
To me, the chart looks awful from a technical viewpoint - worse than the huge drops in Oct and Nov (which I held in - please don't remind me). The difference in this case is that the price closed right near the low of the day's range and, on lower timeframes (say, 3 mins), there are lower highs into support, meaning there are less buyers willing to pay higher prices. As I suspect, support will break, leading to further drops next week, I am thinking of selling out and buying back in on the bounce. However, that will crystallise a 40% loss from my top-up in Feb, coupled with a classic failure to take profits at £12.
Can any chartist make a case for talking me out of this?
I have been in this dramatic sp fall scenario many times before and the worst thing you can do is panic sell. This isn't a duster oilee company but a company involved in a worldwide pandemic with many products in the pipeline. I had some reservations about the lack of news, especially the NHS extension. I'm assuming that all the recent job vacancies are to counteract the lost contact with a further drive into the private sector.
The market is driven by sentiment +ve or -ve and will react severely to both, especially -ve. Expecting a further small dip tomorrow and an RNS not too far behind.
WBAfc, will see a revival here and with the Baggies? GLA
There is a case for talking investors out of acting on the content of a chart..
Brookr2144
Only you can make that decision as none of us know the answer, no matter what some might say.
That is why I always go back to the fundamentals of a company and try to block out the noise.
I’m holding and will now re-evaluating my goals with this company but won’t be making any firm decisions for at least a month as I would expect some sort of update by then.
Would I have sold at Fridays opening price if I knew what was coming, hell yes. Would I sell at current price knowing there’s more potential, hell no.
Maybe ask yourself would you invest in this company at the current share price for what is currently on the table? Forgot the losses for one moment and look at it as if you were about to invest for the first time.
I’m confident that we will see upward movement in the SP as think this is to low. How far up it will go I don’t know and that is what I will re-evaluate once the dust settles.
That said I also feel that over the next week or two this could drop and rise as people make their decisions or make there percentage gains.
I’m not one to sell and buy on the dips for a few percent as that doesn’t suit my way of investing.
It wouldn’t surprise me if on opening this dropped further as many will have read the news after trading closed and put in a sell order and that is one reason why I would never use a stop loss.
I have been 40% down on another investment I hold ( I jumped in at the top and it was when I was very wet behind the ears). I held my nerve and kept reviewing the fundamentals that kept telling me I was right.
I’m now 15% up and believe it has a lot further to go.
The markets are driven by sentiment and fundamentals but at some point they reach the same level. Hence why I bang on about fundamentals so much.
I don’t have money to lose but any funds invested will not have an effect on my day to day living and this is why I’m willing to take the risk. I’m trying to build a bigger pot for the future and have a diverse pot of investments.
Everyone’s circumstances are different and that is why no one but yourself can make the decision.
Good luck with any decision you make.
Hi All
My first post on NCYT as bought in a very small amount on Friday with average cost 466p - already down 10% in couple of hours . This is part of my SIPP and about 6% of my p/f.
All last year I watched as the tickwer appeared constantly on CNBC as a "top moving" share. Didn't look closely as was fully invested with other shares.
The drop on Friday caught my attnetion, when looking at CNBC at lunch time again. So plunged in at 475p with 3% of my funds, and again at 450p when I thought SP was settling.
The case for or agianst selling depends on why you are invested and your belief of recovery or not.
For me, as a new buyer - it is obvious that I will hold for the future.
For those that have bought at higher levels, ask yourself - would you buy this share today if you were not already invested.
If you can answer yes to that, then you should buy more if funds available.
If you answer no, believing the SP is heading further south, then sell up and buy back later if you wish.
Anyone who honestly believes the SP will drop (more than a tiny amount) should back their own judgement.
Conversely, if like me, you expect a recovery of SP then keep hold or buy.
I've seen so many shares that I hold fall off a cliff, and it is no fun to put it politely.
I just review the new information and reconsider by asking myself that same question. Would I buy now at current SP with the info that I now know.
Many occasions I have sold, where I believe it is the precursor of further bad news. More often that not it has prooved to be a bad choice, moreso with FTSE100 shares than AIM shares.
No one "knows" the future, so use your best judgment.
For those using charting as the basis, my experience says - charts only tell you what happened in the mirror - and never let you know whan a profit warning is coming - otherwise you would never get caught out !
Fingers crossed and GLA - CSDI (Crap Share Dealing Ideas, with smiley face)
My opinion is without an RNS tomorrow we could see 3 volatile red days before a bounce back on Thursday, so your choice as to whether you set a stop loss - I personally won't be doing so.
I believe in the company and the current figures even without the DHSC are incredibly strong and make the current Mcap laughable.
If you believe in the fundamentals but are stressed about it, I personally would switch off for this week..
I try to look for positives and selfishly I didn't get to do my bed and isa last week.. Monday/ Tuesday are going to be an absolute gift for that strategy IMO
Kicking myself for not selling out at £12, twice!!! Now I’m looking at the chart and thinking signs were there, double top, change in sentiment. Held through it all and then I sold out in a panic on Friday by accident after getting a quote on my phone, had a sinking thinking all weekend, and have spent the weekend thinking I should buy back but then now the chart resembles a classic stage 4 stock and with sentiment against it I think it’s probably the worst time to buy back. It could well drop further... better to sit back and watch it play out and re-enter when sentiment eventually changes back. Can’t see it going back to £7 tomorrow. We have about 130 million cash so there’s an argument to say this should be 1.5x cash circa 200 million market cap.... yes undervalued on every other metric, but then it’s been undervalued since the beginning so perhaps the market isn’t using the metrics we’d like and it’s been heavily discounting it for the uncertainty that exists in future revenues. I’m sure long term well see a suitable pe valuation form but we might be talking a few years....we need better visibility of future revenues and most importantly growth in earnings to change sentiment
I sold my SIP shares at a loss on Friday, I’ve been invested with Novacyt since October and I’ve suffered few of the ups and downs. I kept buying with the hope the value would go up on the basis of the “fundamentals”. After Friday I finally realised that investing in Novacyt is a big gamble, fundamentals are and are not there, there is potential but that doesn’t mean it will materialise. I kept my ISA shares as I already consider this a write off. My advice, if you can afford to lose the money go for it otherwise it’s not too late.
Nice decision to sell.. unfortunately I increased my holding last thing friday by 20,000 shares..
Posts like that are extremely stupid.. I thought I would join in.
Against selling. Seem to be a few wanting a cheaper entry tomorrow and buy in on the drop. Ignore the noise and do your research. https://www.powerof78.com/2021/04/11/ncyt-blackbird-investing/
Put more shares in my isa.. more into a separate barclays account. More into my sippy. Bought some for the wife. And she's married again. Bought more for everyone of my 20 numbered family. Bargain at these prices. And they are about to throw of the chains of the goverment that has been holding them back for six months.
Ramp or deramp. Truth or lies.
Luckily there is enough revenue to get us over this period of government interference. Revenues still building and heading towards 200 million cushion fridays news..that's a ramp they are only around 130 million. Still making 0.5 million a day though.
And another new job advertised today. 22 in total now being advertised.
It would be ironic if the tests earmarked for nhs england ended up in the e.u.
Joker99/Pete89 you still jealous others have made money where you can’t?
He really does seem to be obsessed about other peoples money. Very strange...
There’s a lot of people on Twatter who also aren’t invested but care very much about other peoples money.
Bump for Pete
https://www.powerof78.com/2021/04/11/ncyt-blackbird-investing/
A good read
https://www.powerof78.com/2021/04/11/ncyt-blackbird-investing/
I disagree that we all have different circumstances. Many investors close to identical if not exactly of course. Many of us the same.
But I doubt anyone else on a £78k loss but I would be “ comforted” to be in company. I err on the side of foolishness. But have been here before. I have been a pauper and lost it all. And gained. Not proud. Just taught me a bit/lot. I expect mm’s to want your shares cheap. Up to you.
I don’t believe Ncyt got here just on covid without sense..
They run a sharp business. They are building private as the govt was never to be trusted. I have dealt with DHSC in politics. Jokers in efficiency.
Each to our own
Sell in panic on mm games perhaps and live with consequences.
I agree with switch off this week and 3-4 weeks. Bound to play games to lure holders into despair. But nothing intrinsically changes. And I have lost more by selling out in the past than by holding.
Yes...if you would buy now ....there is your answer.
If not you should never have invested anyway.
No matter what tempest may await...it’s a storm and not Armageddon. Temporary.
Stick or twist.
Hold or flog and crystallize loss . Who knows it will go down further if you want to buy back. Absolutely no-one.
Take your hand and throw in your cards.
Or think think think.
I for one -grieving my loss or not-won’t be giving it away. The company is the same company which