Our latest Investing Matters Podcast episode with QuotedData's Edward Marten has just been released. Listen here.
Is that our Allmond joining Poolbeg Pharma as Chief Business Officer?! No mention of Novacyt in his blurb (https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/POLB/former-amryt-pharma-leadership-team-join-poolbeg/16202153). Very apt as he did absolutely nothing. Stock went up over 20% at one point. Interesting indeed.
The whole board should go. They've been p***ing around doing nothing for years. Little thought seems to have gone into the YGEN acquisition: 'At this early stage we need to do further work on the combined businesses to determine financial/EBITDA expectations for FY 2023 ...will be focussed on... evaluating the best ways to leverage our combined capabilities'. Shouldn't that be done before buying the d**n thing?
@Wilson
Just looked at Biosynex (ALBIO) - they do appear a growing and cash-generative company. Eurobio Scientific (ALERS) is similar.
I know you were joking but, if we were to acquire either, then that would be good business.
Just passed the January high last week.
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/testing?areaType=overview&areaName=United%20Kingdom
Should be good for our sales.
For me, the biggest disappointment from the RNS was the outlook and lack of sales outside the UK. I know that we are still expanding the sales team but I expected a higher forecast from sales in Europe and the US and private testing than 100m at year end. There is no doubt that NCYT's innovations and margins are exceptional - we just need to make the sales.
Regardless, the SP is still excessively low in my opinion and I certainly won't be selling. I initially bought on 22 Sept 2020 and the SP is 15% down from there! Interestingly, the SP of US diagnostic companies CODX and QDEL have done even worse since (both 44% down) while ALERS is 48% up. ALERS is French and perhaps why we aren't making many sales in France.
Fingers crossed for some strong trading updates and resolution of the dispute in our favour.
I like the company but it is now grossly overvalued IMO. Having sold out a while ago, I certainly would not buy in at this price. Well done to those holding.
Just come off the investor presentation which was thorough and interactive.
Calnex confirmed that they intend to pay a dividend in FY2022, and that revenues are expected to exceed FY2021, although not by much due to pullthrough of revenues into FY2021.
I took the opportunity to double my position into a full one in my portfolio.
GLA.
Just to add:
'Testing will be ramped up to meet local needs, which will include additional mobile testing units, door-to-door testing and extra polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test kits for community testing sites.'
https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/health-and-social-care-secretarys-statement-on-coronavirus-covid-19-19-may-2021
and
Third Wave Warning:
https://www.bmj.com/content/373/bmj.n923
Let's not beat around the bush - this is not good news.
However, the amount in Q1 relating to DHSC is 50% of £72.6m = £36.3m.
The number of shares is 70.626248m.
So the amount at risk is 51p/share.
Yesterday's close was 419.6p.
Current price is 370.06p.
Difference = 49p.
So, at this price, the market expects NCYT has only 2/51 = 4% chance of winning the case.
We don't know the details of the case but other diagnostic companies have also had their revenues disputed by DHSC. Who knows what NCYT's chances are, but I would suggest that they are far greater than 4%.
Let's not forget the Q4 revenues that the market has already discounted, excessively so in my view (which is why I bought back in).
Overall, I think the upside is high from here.
From a technical viewpoint, if we close above 373.2, we should be OK, in the short-term at least.
GLA
FWIW, I bought back in after some more investigation - even if margins drop, there are few other companies which come close to this level of profitability (in fact, I can't find a single one).
Hopefully, it shoots up now!
Selling off more today...
I had a buy limit order lower down but removed it after reading this:
https://forum.quidisq.com/t/best-of-the-best-botb-regulatory-threat/279
There is also the increased charges from Facebook advertising which will impact the up to now impressive margins.
Thoughts?
Sorry for those left holding the bag. I was lucky to get out in time - for once... I think most people had initially expected even more growth than Finncap was predicting, hence the shock. I agree it was very suspicious that the directors sold at £24, which is why I believe that that will be the next stop. Could be even lower the way markets are selling off.
Glad to be out at 31 quid. Market looks like it is turning. Hoping to buy back at 24 quid. GLA.