Member Info for CSDI1962

Must say a big "thank you" to Robleo for keeping the comp going for so long.
As they say, all good things must come to an end.

As someone who only has one investment, in another share, there will be little point in me adding any comments to the VOD chat. So I will say my farewells to all VODders and wish you all every success.

Cheers - C

Hi Nomad

As you know the PSN yield is approx 12.5% today vs 6.8% for TW.
so with 34K shares of TW, at current SP approx 126p, you could generate extra £2.4K divi if the current payouts remained the same, over 12 months.
This does not take into account cost of selling TW and buying PSN with stamp duty which would eat into your possible gain.
The bigger question is, what will happen to your capital from here. Would PSN grow more than TW ?
It's not one I would like to call.
Is it worth, splitting the investment 50/50, hedging your bets, or simply leave alone.
My experience with moving shares tends to be very costly, so maybe patience is the best option.
Also note the next TW divi is for shares held in October, while PSN is not until next March.
So maybe sit on the fence, pick up the next TW divi and then review.

You cannot call this solid advice LOL, but just the mutterings of a serial underperformer.
Hence the moniker CSDI = Crap Share Dealing Ideas

Hopefully others can come up with better ideas, but at the end of the day it is your money and your choice.
I would not act on advice from anyone on here, but would listen if ideas are constructive.

ATB - C

A lot of "money-men" reach the top spots, but do not understand how business actually works.
They just see numbers.
Understanding customers is probably a greater skill.
Managing costs is normally about head counts, esp in service/utility sector.
Cheers - C

The SP has been holding just below 120 for most of this year, with slightly higher lows.
The converse is also true with slightly lower highs so we are moving to one of those periods where a breakout is imminent. Unfortunaltely I can't work out which is most likely - a break up or down.
If we drop to the low 100s that is more attractive as an entry point but more painful for existing holders.
So I'll just keep watching for now, as like Robleo, I have limited funds.

GLA - C

Where was Read before this position with VOD or is he a VOD-lifer ?
Never looked into his past

Cheers - C

Robina

My view with topping up is like Rob's.

If you can make your average cost lower per share - then that can't be a bad idea - that's if you think VOD is the best palce to put your money. If like me, you've only got one investment then little point in making separate tiny pots. I've a plan to top up my PSN shares next week as the current SP is about 11% lower than my average and 20% lower than my first purchase. Pound cost averaging.

Cheers - C

Steve

Not sure about that

PSN & BDEV hit lows on 19/3/20. TW hit a later low in September just a couple pence down from the 19/3/20.

BDEV was 349p now 485p = +39%
PSN was 1367p now 1860p = +36%
TW was 101p (on 19/3/20) now 125p = +24%

Dan - while you're in deep thought, I'll go and have a game of chess and some beer to go with that pop - as I like a Shandy or two. Looks like I will not be collecting any medals this week.

ATB - Chief Protagonistic (old) Git - C

Rob

You should have been appointed as chief peace maker.
I love Dan's wicked sense of humour, but wish he could just ignore his protagonist.
I hope Dan puts an appearance in here, with his missing guess.

Some interesting thought provoking issues on the PSN chat today as the SP taken another hit.

Take care - C

Dan - good to hear from you - we were concerned.

TBH your reply to Mikey is really not on. There was an olive branch been put out there.
Not surprising that Mikey would retalliate afterwards.

All in all pretty sad
So maybe time I disappeared from here for a while as don't need to put up with this.

C

Strictly,

It's good to have some constructive discussions to throw ideas about.

None of us should be making serious investment decisions based on this chat.

My experiences have been pretty sobering, and all of which are entirely down to my choices - hence my moniker of CSDI = Crap Share Dealing Ideas :)
No one forces us to buy or sell any share and we all should take responsibility for our own investments and the results and consequences that follow. I really dislike some of the foul mouthed banter that goes on with some posters on other shares.

Great to have a proper discussion

Cheers - C

Hi BB
No worries about today's drop in SP - Mr Market throwing his usual wobbly !
Hope it stays low for my monthly purchase next week. All in all makes little difference to me, but always nice to get lower average cost if possible. and then wait for the SP to rise after I've filled my little hand basket (not enough for a trolley LOL).
Must stop chatting and earn some dosh so I can buy a few shares next week !

Cheers & GLA - C

Strictly

Looking at last 10 years, using random start point of 4/7/2012.

PSN SP + 349% (1830 vs 524) divis 1535p (292%)

TW + 279% (121.2 vs 43.31) divis 93.52 (215%)

BDEV + 339% (478.4 vs 140.8) + divis 165.8 (118%)

BKG + 295% (4078 vs 1380) + divis 1134p (82%)

Tells me PSN has been hands down the winner with a 641% gain, with TW in 2nd place at 494% gain.
Interesting ....

But as they say past performance is no guarantee of future dah dah

Cheers - C

Upomega

I first bought PSN in 2007 when it was about 750p
Then came the 2008-09 crash when all my shares got smashed.
some have never recovered (banks) and by Feb 2009 I had a loss of 2/3 on my whole p/f.
Fast forward to 2017 when I got to 55 and cashed the p/f in - I'd got back to almost break even.
I've made dozens of mistakes, selling too low.
I lacked patience, but hopefully now can take better decisions.
I bought POLY early this year and made a right pickle of it. A few weeks ago I decided the problems there were too much and took another loss.
With PSN I think long term the SP will recover as the UK housing market will remain bouyant - our national fixation with property/prices. With POLY I am not sure how it will resurface with the Russian links - hence selling there and putting into PSN.
Prices can drop at any time on the whim of the market - so best not to get annoyed.
Those of us who constantly watch the market should probably take a chill pill and turn off our PCs for a while.
The best investors are those who leave things alone, as constant chopping and changing only enriches the dealers.
If you prefer to trade then that is a different page in the book altogether. Looking at spreadbetting and CFD providers will tell you that 70-80% of investors/punters lose money !
My next purchase is scheduled for 10th August (monthly scheme for £1.50 commission). I'm only buying £250 worth per month, so cannot compare to those with big pockets.
Good luck again
Cheers - CSDI (Crap Share Dealing Ideas LOL)

Hi upomega

I understand your views - and it will seem disappointing.
Short term movements can disproportionately affect your view - esp when things go against you.

PSN has had its strange dividend schedule for at least a decade, so that should be no surpirse.
I take the opposite view on a long term basis. It is good value when you consider it was priced at over £30 just over 12 months ago. What has caused a 40% drop in SP, when profits have remained stable.
We know we have some headwinds as I've mentioned numerous times, and everything always looks darkest at the bottom. Can it go lower ? Yes of course it can.
Short term I have no idea which way it will go, but long term I would expect a recovery.
Profits last year £966m vs £783m for 2020.
Assume we fall back to 2020 levels - the covid year - we still have earnings of around 220p per share.
At a current SP of under £19, the P/E is under 9.
With no debt, the majority of profit will be paid as a divi.
Hold for 5 years and you could accumulate approx £10 in divis.
It has paid £8.15 in divis over the last 5 years - with nil one year and only 110p for another.

There may well be other opportunities with other shares - it's all about risk and reward - with no guarantees.

For me, I wil keep adding a few shares over the enxt couple of months, having started buying in March.
Current average cost is 2088p, with my earliest purchases getting the divi, and my recent ones being too late.

I've done the same as you many times previously, and usually made matters worse by changing my mind.
For this time, I will stick with this one - my only share in a small ISA.

Good luck whichever way you choose - at the end of the day - it's about making a few quid if we can.
There will always be winners and losers, with the odds stacked against the PI.

GLA - C

His last post was 27th July.
I can't see any mention of hols
Anyone shed any light, before we report him M.I.A

Trust Dan is well and just having a break

Cheers - C

MP08 - thanks for your valuable input - really appreciated.
At least we have a bit of fun on here - you wanna look at some of the other share chats - they're full of vitriol.
If you don't like us having some fun - just ignore us and don't waste your time posting
Cheers - C

Nice one WM - a coveted gold medal comes your way.
Thanks to Rob for keeping the fun and games going

Cheers - C

Cheers Rob - thought you'd like that !

So will go for 1-2-3-4 next week that is 123.4p

Thanks - C

The end of another turbulent month for the SP, after a drop to the low 1700s, it's recovered to close the month at 1884, a wapping 1% better than the end of June.
The headwinds are still there with rampant cost inflation, shortage of tradesmen, and looming increase in interest rates which will make mortgages more expensive, putting some propective new house buyers under more pressure. From a company pov, they seem to be keeping margins intact, although units of completion may be a little lower this year. H2 always seems to have a bigger number of completions as managment push to hit annual targets. The company has no debt so avoids paying high overdraft/lending charges and should be able to generate some new income on earned interest.
According to the HL website, the P/E ratio is a lowly 7.5 and a divdend yield of 12.5% - both highly attractive to value hunters, and dangerously high in the case of the dividend. We cannot expect a 12.5% divi to be maintained long term so something has to give. Mr Market sees trouble based on the 35% drop in SP over the last 12 months, but are we starting the slow climb back up.
For me, this is my only share in an ISA, with a plan to add a little more next month and Sept, to increase my investment from £3K towards £3.5K or £4K if possible. With a current average cost of 2088p, this should drop a few pence with my next purchase. I have a target price in mind of £25 to sell around 1/3 of my shares, and would sell the lot if we get up to £30. Loking back at the charts, we followed a similar route from over £30 to under £20 in 2018, before climbing back to over £30 by early 2020 and then covid hit us - back to below £18 - and another climb to £30 in 12 months, and then back down again to where we are now.
As they say, past performance is no guarantee of future etc, but humans are creatures of habit. I am hoping for a repeat over the next year to take us back up the worry-wall, and in the meantime will wait until next March's divi is in sight. If recession gets bigger, then will just have to sit tight on any drop, and wait longer for recovery. Somehow the UK's housing market stays resilient, with house prices painfully high for the average Joe. Will the goverment bring back more incentives to help Joe Public, which are a big part of the high prices and the company's ability to make profits.
GLA - C