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Hi BB
No worries about today's drop in SP - Mr Market throwing his usual wobbly !
Hope it stays low for my monthly purchase next week. All in all makes little difference to me, but always nice to get lower average cost if possible. and then wait for the SP to rise after I've filled my little hand basket (not enough for a trolley LOL).
Must stop chatting and earn some dosh so I can buy a few shares next week !
Cheers & GLA - C
Strictly
Looking at last 10 years, using random start point of 4/7/2012.
PSN SP + 349% (1830 vs 524) divis 1535p (292%)
TW + 279% (121.2 vs 43.31) divis 93.52 (215%)
BDEV + 339% (478.4 vs 140.8) + divis 165.8 (118%)
BKG + 295% (4078 vs 1380) + divis 1134p (82%)
Tells me PSN has been hands down the winner with a 641% gain, with TW in 2nd place at 494% gain.
Interesting ....
But as they say past performance is no guarantee of future dah dah
Cheers - C
Upomega
I first bought PSN in 2007 when it was about 750p
Then came the 2008-09 crash when all my shares got smashed.
some have never recovered (banks) and by Feb 2009 I had a loss of 2/3 on my whole p/f.
Fast forward to 2017 when I got to 55 and cashed the p/f in - I'd got back to almost break even.
I've made dozens of mistakes, selling too low.
I lacked patience, but hopefully now can take better decisions.
I bought POLY early this year and made a right pickle of it. A few weeks ago I decided the problems there were too much and took another loss.
With PSN I think long term the SP will recover as the UK housing market will remain bouyant - our national fixation with property/prices. With POLY I am not sure how it will resurface with the Russian links - hence selling there and putting into PSN.
Prices can drop at any time on the whim of the market - so best not to get annoyed.
Those of us who constantly watch the market should probably take a chill pill and turn off our PCs for a while.
The best investors are those who leave things alone, as constant chopping and changing only enriches the dealers.
If you prefer to trade then that is a different page in the book altogether. Looking at spreadbetting and CFD providers will tell you that 70-80% of investors/punters lose money !
My next purchase is scheduled for 10th August (monthly scheme for £1.50 commission). I'm only buying £250 worth per month, so cannot compare to those with big pockets.
Good luck again
Cheers - CSDI (Crap Share Dealing Ideas LOL)
Hi upomega
I understand your views - and it will seem disappointing.
Short term movements can disproportionately affect your view - esp when things go against you.
PSN has had its strange dividend schedule for at least a decade, so that should be no surpirse.
I take the opposite view on a long term basis. It is good value when you consider it was priced at over £30 just over 12 months ago. What has caused a 40% drop in SP, when profits have remained stable.
We know we have some headwinds as I've mentioned numerous times, and everything always looks darkest at the bottom. Can it go lower ? Yes of course it can.
Short term I have no idea which way it will go, but long term I would expect a recovery.
Profits last year £966m vs £783m for 2020.
Assume we fall back to 2020 levels - the covid year - we still have earnings of around 220p per share.
At a current SP of under £19, the P/E is under 9.
With no debt, the majority of profit will be paid as a divi.
Hold for 5 years and you could accumulate approx £10 in divis.
It has paid £8.15 in divis over the last 5 years - with nil one year and only 110p for another.
There may well be other opportunities with other shares - it's all about risk and reward - with no guarantees.
For me, I wil keep adding a few shares over the enxt couple of months, having started buying in March.
Current average cost is 2088p, with my earliest purchases getting the divi, and my recent ones being too late.
I've done the same as you many times previously, and usually made matters worse by changing my mind.
For this time, I will stick with this one - my only share in a small ISA.
Good luck whichever way you choose - at the end of the day - it's about making a few quid if we can.
There will always be winners and losers, with the odds stacked against the PI.
GLA - C
MP08 - thanks for your valuable input - really appreciated.
At least we have a bit of fun on here - you wanna look at some of the other share chats - they're full of vitriol.
If you don't like us having some fun - just ignore us and don't waste your time posting
Cheers - C
The end of another turbulent month for the SP, after a drop to the low 1700s, it's recovered to close the month at 1884, a wapping 1% better than the end of June.
The headwinds are still there with rampant cost inflation, shortage of tradesmen, and looming increase in interest rates which will make mortgages more expensive, putting some propective new house buyers under more pressure. From a company pov, they seem to be keeping margins intact, although units of completion may be a little lower this year. H2 always seems to have a bigger number of completions as managment push to hit annual targets. The company has no debt so avoids paying high overdraft/lending charges and should be able to generate some new income on earned interest.
According to the HL website, the P/E ratio is a lowly 7.5 and a divdend yield of 12.5% - both highly attractive to value hunters, and dangerously high in the case of the dividend. We cannot expect a 12.5% divi to be maintained long term so something has to give. Mr Market sees trouble based on the 35% drop in SP over the last 12 months, but are we starting the slow climb back up.
For me, this is my only share in an ISA, with a plan to add a little more next month and Sept, to increase my investment from £3K towards £3.5K or £4K if possible. With a current average cost of 2088p, this should drop a few pence with my next purchase. I have a target price in mind of £25 to sell around 1/3 of my shares, and would sell the lot if we get up to £30. Loking back at the charts, we followed a similar route from over £30 to under £20 in 2018, before climbing back to over £30 by early 2020 and then covid hit us - back to below £18 - and another climb to £30 in 12 months, and then back down again to where we are now.
As they say, past performance is no guarantee of future etc, but humans are creatures of habit. I am hoping for a repeat over the next year to take us back up the worry-wall, and in the meantime will wait until next March's divi is in sight. If recession gets bigger, then will just have to sit tight on any drop, and wait longer for recovery. Somehow the UK's housing market stays resilient, with house prices painfully high for the average Joe. Will the goverment bring back more incentives to help Joe Public, which are a big part of the high prices and the company's ability to make profits.
GLA - C
Broker Ratings are best ignored.
They have their own agenda - and any "in-house" broker is bound to recommend a buy.
Some brokers have power to influence short term SP movements, but it is all "noise" at the end of the day.
On some days I've seen 3 contradictory recommendations (buy,sell and hold !) on shares I've held in the past which says it all really.
Cheers - C
Be patient all.
It's grim at the mo, but VOD has been here so many times.
It's still well above the 52 week low and still in the range 100-140.
I've not got funds to buy, but would if I could around 115, and pound cost average over a few months, with a view to sell at any 10% profit made and repeat if possible !
The chances of a return to the old £2 do not seem likely for the forseeable, so for me this would just be a trading share.
As a reminder for Dan - CSDI = Crap Share Dealing Ideas.
Therefore best just to ignore any of my ideas as my track record ain't great - to put it mildly LOL.
Still stuck with my only holidng in my little ISA with PSN.
Only down about 7% so far, after 5 little purchases + a divi reinvestment.
Looking to add a few more shares next month and the month after. Then it's time to hold on.
GLA - C
Evening peeps from the Master of Predictions !
Didn't think I would be collecting ANOTHER gold medal - the trophy room is just too small to cope.
I reckon it's good fun to keep the game going - completely harmless fun - while you all wait for the SP to climb back to previous glory of £2 +
Happy to go for another prediction 130p next Friday if anyone is bothered - esp Rob as the Chief Controller.
Please to see PSN remembering that SPs are allowed to rise as it has been on a one way (Mikey-like) Ski Slope for over 4 months since I first bought.
At least VOD seems to consolidating, preparing for the big push up the hill.
Take care & GLA - C
Hi wiscos
Yes indeed a nice little move this week. Lots of patience required for me as a LTH. Looking to keep accumulatling over the next few weeks with next monthly purchase due on 10th August. So happy for SP to be held back for now LOL.
GLA - C
I have a much smaller number of shares - have been buying since March - and am expecting to add about £200-£250 worth in august and September. This is provided the cost is not above my current average of 2088p.
Trying to pick the bottom is impossible - buying any share has an associated risk it may fall - and this is no exception.
On the balance though, this does offer good value, with a low P/E ratio and a (dangerously) high dividend.
The company distributes most of its annual profit in divis as it has a cash buffer already. While inflation may push up costs, you would expect PSN to simply add this to the selling price, as the UK housing market seems to defy gravity - at least for now.
GLA - C
Don;t know what Mp08 is moaning about.
It's good to have a bit of fun and banter. most other shares chat are full of abuse, rampers, and talk bow-locks most of the time anyway. I used to have some shares in POLY and got really fed up with war-talk proliferating the BB. Of course it is relevant, but the amount of crap posted about Putin and Russia is beyond a joke.
So keep this going please guys, and there's always other more serious threads that can be opened and commented on for those with the knowledge etc.
For long term investors what's the need to constantly chat about any share.
GLA - C
Yes indeed a long way to go.
It was 2195p the day before ex div, so in just over a month it's been on a serious ski slope.
Now to climb the worry-wall, while we are surrounded with all this doom and gloom of rising interest rates and inflation we've not see for at least 3 decades. At least interest rates are much lower than pre-financial crash, but with house prices the way they are no one can afford the old 10% mortgage interest rates.
I'm constantly astounded by the way house prices seem to defy gravity, but you know there will be a correction at some point. The demand/supply economics of our domestic housing market is pretty unique, and seems to support the pricing. At least PSN knows how to maximise profit from its units, and long may it continue. Let's see if next months H1 Results can put a stick of dynamite into the SP.
GLA - C
Dan - what has the Joint operation Commissioner got to do with VOD - only joking of course !
POLY cost me a few quid, but I did escape partly at 230p and 214p.
It could still be a great recovery play - but will take longer than anyone expected (those that dived in hoping for immediate bounce).
Rob - DLG comes to the sick bay with many of our other patients. It was at 360p when I first bought in 2018, and IMB was over £29, RDSB at £27 etc etc. VOD was a high flier at £2 too. Long term gains are hard to come by. You have to be nimble and take profits when you can with these mature companies. Finding the acorns that are going to grow is the apple of our dreams.
GLA - C