Member Info for Hydr31

Right now, Jet2 trades at an incredibly depressed multiple of just 5.4x trailing earnings. Fairly valuing the business based on its actual trailing diluted Earnings Per Share (EPS) of 207p changes the game entirely. Merely returning to its historical, mid-cycle average of 11x or 12x earnings on this actual 207p diluted base mathematically drives the stock to 2,277p to 2,484p—putting £25 firmly within realistic reach.

This massive valuation gap becomes undeniable when you look at the company’s core fundamental indicators. Jet2 sits on an immense balance sheet featuring £3.30 billion in total cash and £2.0 billion in pure net cash. If you take the current £2.24 billion market capitalisation, add £1.30 billion in total debt (including lease liabilities), and subtract the £3.30 billion total cash pile, Jet2's actual Enterprise Value is dragged down to just £240 million. This leaves the stock trading at an EV/Sales multiple of just 0.15x to 0.20x, meaning investors are currently buying Jet2's entire operating business—its fleet, routes, and brand—for virtually nothing once the net cash on the balance sheet is taken into account.

£25 within a year. Solid company at all time lows on a PE valuation. Valued low on fear of losses due to spiking oil but in reality it’s hedged and one of the airlines that stands to benefit. Has consumer demand for a summer holiday vanished. Nope. We just haven’t booked yet. Once Hormuz deal done this is cleared for take off. Gatwick expansion is a huge new market, set for the future with future runway expansion all ready planned, streamlined costs with new fleet from day 1.

I’ve just been reading about the aquisition. SCD was a fast growing business having gone from 2million to 6million in a short time frame. The directors of SCD have earn out targets to achieve over a 4 year period. They have to achieve circa £15million ebitda over a four year period. Thats some serious revenue growth expected. Revenues would need to expand towards £75 million

Interesting it seems to be finding support at 80p. It gapped down today on the lowest volume for a week.

Chart starting to represent a bullish flag. Mpox revenue really doesn’t matter at this point. It’s undervalued based on its Yourgene revenues.

Makes the perfect scare story for traders to play on fear though, so no doubt well keep focusing on mpox being the next covid and then it fizzling out the day after.

Reality is there will be some more sales because of it, probably not going to be 100’s of million like Covid. But it should guarantee some reasonable double digit growth for the next few years. Unlike Covid, the investment case is not hanging on one big order coming in.

Very close to a golden cross. 50 dma crossing 200 dma in the next session or so, long term trend confirming should bring some investors.

Thanks Wilson…. Well that’s a lot better, revenues likely to see 100% plus growth even without monkeypox.

I’ve just been reviewing the recent annual report which showed a reduction in revenues from 21 million to 11 million. What I hadn’t picked up on before. The reduction was due to loss of covid related sales. Only 0.6 million due to covid related sales in 2023. The aquisition of Yourgene delivered 5 million sales. But only included revenues from September to December . So does that mean we can expect 20 million revenues from a full year of Yourgene? So that puts the company on 25million a year without mpox revenues. Or anything else.

You’re assuming that the increase in sales price is just because everyone’s expecting mpox to be another covid. It isn’t, that’s clear. I’m sure it’s a catalyst for the sudden turn around but NCYT isn’t even valued based on its underlying business and the cash it holds…. It has been valued as if all it could sell was covid tests. And at one point it certainly felt like it couldn’t even do that. Perhaps a realisation that NCYT has a lot of potential and multiple potential revenue streams which can lead to a growing business producing sustainable profits is the underlying reason why this was due a reversal. It only has to be delivering 20 million operating profit and share price fair value would be well over a £5 based on applying growth multiples of say 25. The market just needs to see a company capable of growing and generating revenues either through organic sales or aquisitions for it to go a lot higher. The price did nothing following the court case finishing so arguably an increase in price and change in sentiment is well overdue. IMO

Since the end of the pandemic Ncyt has been valued as a one hit wonder, its share price resembling blockbusters demise as Netflix took off. It was priced to go bust. Are we just starting to realise that covid was just the start. We are in a different world now where diagnostic testing is rapidly and readily available and now expected. Novacyt are at the front of that. They were ready with the covid test well before it was on anyone’s radar and now with monkey pox. I’m not expecting monkey pox to be the next covid, I’m not expecting lockdowns but I am expecting testing because that’s part of the way this and other diseases are contained without full vaccination programs

it’s already been in the u.k. a while…. 160 cases in 23/24 of which half were aquired in the u.k..

novacyt launched there assay end of june.

taken from gov website-

current epidemiological situation up to 29 february 2024

detection of cases of mpox infection, acquired within the uk, were confirmed in england from 6 may 2022. the outbreak has mainly been in ***, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men without documented history of travel to endemic countries.

suspected mpox samples that are positive using a mpox polymerase chain reaction (pcr) test are classified as confirmed cases. samples which are positive using an orthopox pcr test are classified as highly probable cases. orthopox is the group of viruses which includes mpox. the counts below combine both of these categories.

up to 31 december 2022 there were 3,732 confirmed and highly probable mpox cases reported in the uk. of these, 3,553 were in england, 34 were in northern ireland, 97 were in scotland and 48 were in wales.

in 2023 and 2024 (up to 29 february 2024) there have been a total of 160 cases of mpox reported in the uk. of these, 153 were in england (68 cases were presumed to have acquired mpox in the uk, 58 were acquired outside the uk and 27 are awaiting classification), 3 were in scotland (2 were an imported case acquired outside the uk and one was presumed to have acquired mpox in the uk), one was in wales (an imported case acquired outside the uk), and 3 were in northern ireland (one was presumed to have acquired mpox in the uk and 2 are awaiting classification).

Does anyone have an idea on the financial implications of these trade ins.. clearly company are seeing it as positive news that materially impact financials or they wouldn’t bother with the RNS. The first of which had some negative effect as investors were left questioning whether sales are that bad that we are having to resort to give them away to current customers. But by trade in do we actually make profit on the sale and does it upgrade the ongoing earnings potential at those sites.

Yeah my business has claimed VAT back successfully when a project didn’t go to plan and we ended up refunding something. It’s just accounting, if it didn’t happen then there was no VAT to pay and we are now in credit.

Results are pleasant surprise…. Not sure what primer design have been up too but the Yourgene revenues are welcome. Have we turned a corner

He probably just need the money for something. Why leave 10k in ? He could have sold the lot no problem. I’d also point out he never invested that money. He gained the shares as a bonus. So it’s a 100% up in his eyes. I think any drop will be temporary, it’s not like all the major directors are selling their shares but might provide a good entry point for others

He didn’t hold shares pre placing. Was basically gifted 1.1million shares. Now valued at 20k and has sold about half. Pretty nice bonus.

Labour’s ‘Fit For The Future Fund’ will provide enough funding to double the number of CT and MRI scanners in the NHS over a parliament, so patients get diagnosed earlier.

What’s the chances of Polarean entering the UK market through a partnership. That’s a hell of a sales opportunity if Labour win tomorrow

When you consider this reached almost a 300 million market cap when it reached £1.20 on just the prospect of gaining FDA approval a year ago and now it has the approval and funding, it seems very undervalued at a £20 million market cap. Especially when you consider that is basically the cash.

On the positive side they’ve obviously seen a chance for themselves to make a lot of money so looks like share price is due an uplift. Might even see a directors buy to get us to the first tranche

Well 5 x net profits, plus cash in the bank. At least £60 million I would say.

Which is around 32p a share( also happens to be about the highest price paid in the last 12 months ) some paid as high as 45p

Is Another option that there might be some equity of panmore gordon on the table as well as a cash payment?

Terrible deal if that’s true. Finncap have £25mill in the bank so they’d actually be paying £13 million for the business.

Pleasantly surprised with these. Ebitda is up 100% on previous Q1. Great start. Cash well up too even after the dividend . All In a rather tumultuous period.