I could be wrong but the SP looks to be at or around the 38% Fibonacci retracement from its recent high. Hopefully this is just a normal pull back as some take profit before the price finds some support and continues its ascent. Starting to look great value. The forthcoming fundamentals should support a much higher SP.
Yes I rewatched that too. Always helps to remind yourself why you hold when the price isn’t going the right way. Looks like it bounced on one of the moving averages yesterday so hopefully we will have a better day today.
Is Debenhams a brand? I think of it as a retailer/platform. Somewhere you can get lots of brands under one roof. So it can never really be described as a dated brand. That’s the beauty, it can’t really go out of fashion, brands that go out of fashion stop selling and get replaced with more fashionable ones. Debenhams is iconic in the U.K. Are some of the brands dated that they sell? Maybe to one section of society, but I’d argue that they only exist if they are selling so what appeals to teens will not appeal to the more mature shoppers. So all in all I think Debenhams has more potential than Boohoo. (Which is just a brand for teenagers) it has a bigger target audience and will provide a platform for the boohoo group to service a growing customer base. I wonder if we could buy a similarly large platform in America that customers would recognise.
Current EPS forecast is 10.7. Average pe of 40 would see this at £4.28. I’m sure as the year develops and the price picks up some momentum we may well see higher pe valuation.... historically it’s reached 70 plus but let’s just say pe of 50. That would be £5.35 this year. Very plausible and very little risk at the all time low pe we are at now. BOO have made a lot of progress this year so should any of the aquisitions start delivering growth we may well see upgrades to both eps and pe valuation. Based on forward 2023 earnings of 13.7eps, this will be trading between £4.80 and £9.59 in two year time. So at £3.30 I think it represents a bargain. Worse case senario 45% growth over a year and half. Perhaps there are other shares with higher growth rates but they come with a lot more risk. So I see BOO as a good low risk stock to just buy and hold and a great stock if you can trade in and out of the highs and lows or at least add on the lows which is what I’ve done.
It was up 5 % briefly this am. Looks like it is still holding in that pennant. Volume starting to build on the hourly chart as we get closer to the 50ma. I’m pretty comfortable holding this mid term based on the expected results over summer. It will look very cheap then. Got to give it time
RE: DHSC Payment Analysis - Update06 May 2021 23:49
Shaun have you considered that the payments in the DCSH report may also contain VAT? If you work that out payments since September to February come to £145 million just shy of the 150 million contract? If looking at quarter 1 results it also makes more sense as the DCSH contribution becomes 39.9 million without vat which is then closer to 50% of quarter 1 revenue. If feb invoicing is not part on the contract then it would suggest we are missing 50 million from 2020 and this is possibly what is in dispute.
RE: FT: Boohoo warns of slowdown in revenue growth06 May 2021 11:48
Eh they maintained last years guidance of 25% Rev growth.... which based on the fact that they always beat this I wouldn’t be surprised if they do it again.... someone at the ft wants to get in below £3. They’ll be lucky. But if anyone wants to sell at £3.10 I’ll be happy to buy. When this turn I think it will motor back up
The current pe is even lower than the pe valuation when the Covid collapse hit and then when we thought slavery allegation were going to take down the company. We are a stronger company and a better company now then we were before those crashes yet the valuation is the lowest it has ever been
Looking at historic values this was the first year in a while that the pe wasn’t in the mid forties on results day. Probably explains why we haven’t seen a big sell off. We are already near the bottom of the valuation. Historically speaking the current pe of 36.7 is the lowest the pe has ever been across the last 3- 4 years and for the last 3-4 years it has managed to reach >80 mid year. That mentality would justify a SP of £6.88 this year. So I think we’re being offered a bargain here . Even if we lowered expectations to a pe of 60 (which would be well below previous in year pe highs) we would see £5.16 this year. No brainier buy and hold
Like it affected it since conception? Online retail is a growth sector and has been outperforming the high street for some time because it’s cheaper and more convenient. Sure some traffic will go to shops as they open but so are bars, nightclubs and summer holidays to foreign countries, so I imagine Online retail stands to have a fantastic few months as people spend their furlough money getting ready for the party scene!! Everyone is very used to shopping on line now too, so if anything I think we will have seen an accelerator over the past year. Age groups buying on line out of necessity over lockdown whereas before they wouldn’t have considered it. Once you have the app on your phone it’s just so easy to get what you need, the first step of downloading it and changing your buyer mentality is the hard bit.
How on earth does the P/E ratio on that chart change intra-year without an update of results? As far as I’m concerned there are only two PE ratios. The current one based on last years earnings and the forward P/E ratio based on expected results. Current pe is 64.5 and the forward pe of about 35 which becomes the current pe tomorrow. The forward pe tomorrow will be be way less than 30. A bit of selling going on before results today and a lot of peeps commenting on the board who clearly would like to get in cheaper so are possibly sat on the side with cash. if the results are good I think there is going to be a rush to get back in
Pedro if they have done 12 eps at the current price that would put them on a pe of 28..... that would be the lowest the pe has ever been in the last 4-5 years..
Even if they have done only 9 eps then that puts them on a pe of 38. That’s pretty low for BOO. The current ‘sky high ‘ PE is about to shrink next week. Market looks forward.... what will earnings be in 2023.
I’m not sure faux news stories are skeletons but I think most investors can see the risks. On line tax, environmental lobby, labour are all likely storylines that shorters/traders will use to knock the stock again. The key is to see that the fundamental value is growing rapidly and to buy those opportunities when it temporarily sells off. I don’t see that as a negative. I know it’s likely to happen, so take advantage of it when it does happen.
RE: The Guardian Changing It’s Tune?02 May 2021 11:04
It’s talking of expected profits of 147. If that’s after tax that would be colossal. 12 eps would put this at £4.20 - £6.00 trading between pe of 35-50. I was expecting closer to 9 eps to be honest so I’ll be delighted it we get more and with that sort of growth I think investors will take notice.
What is you max upside target? I was playing around with some numbers and trying to be conservative settled on 2.7eps as a forwards earnings target and a pe of 40 so £1.08. But then stockopedia is estimating 3.9 eps and the growth rate over the last two years would be 70 % so could easily hold a pe of 40. So potentially £1.56 not far fetched.
RE: I remember when I use to get the abuse…01 May 2021 18:35
Triangle pattern looks bullish to me. Lows have been snapping back faster than the highs are dropping. Also if you look at rsi over the last few peaks they look very slightly higher... if rsi was lower on the spikes might suggest a bearish outcome. But looks ok to me.