Member Info for Hydr31

Yeah I was pretty happy with those results. Not sure why the negative share price action today. I was aware of the supply chain issues…. Coronavirus/ brexit ect so not a surprise that there has been some impact on distribution costs but importantly revenue is growing and the operating loss reducing despite all that. Positive ebitda so it won’t be long before it’s making positive eps. Ambition of 1.25 billion revenue by 2025 at double digit margin. I’d estimate that at a target of 35eps by 2025. if it manages that it should support a pretty decent pe with that kind of growth.

I’ve topped up / averaged down at 33p for the following reasons.

1) fundamentals haven’t changed, it’s just got cheaper.
2) weekly rsi now oversold.
3) hourly rsi looks like it’s is showing divergence against price
4) very close to 200 day moving average so would think that a good buy point for anyone considering entering the stock.

Article this morning naming John Lewis as the worst offender against minimum wage offences.

I guess the market is concerned about the flat outlook for revenue growth. 40-50 million. To be honest I’m not too concerned about that as I was sort of expecting revenue to drop off a bit with Covid. If we manage to stay flat or even grow revenues beyond Covid then that’s brilliant.

Trying to use the staff costs (%) provided I estimate a worst case senario of 3 eps and best case of 6 eps. So today’s reaction may be over concern that eps might go backwards.

Against the current share price of 39p that’s a forward pe of somewhere between 6.5- 13. When you consider that over the last 4 years the eps has done 100% (25% per annum) one might expect the pe to support a higher figure.

This is before we Consider dividends and now we have almost 20million in cash and growing so there is very good potential for future acquisitive growth.

In my opinion we will see upgrades too expectations as the year progresses.

Don’t you just love it when the share price does what it’s told!!

I could be wrong but the SP looks to be at or around the 38% Fibonacci retracement from its recent high. Hopefully this is just a normal pull back as some take profit before the price finds some support and continues its ascent. Starting to look great value. The forthcoming fundamentals should support a much higher SP.

Been a busy few days on Twitter. Fundraising for Rev bars, chariot and more. Nice to see revenues will still be coming in at a decent rate.

Yes I rewatched that too. Always helps to remind yourself why you hold when the price isn’t going the right way. Looks like it bounced on one of the moving averages yesterday so hopefully we will have a better day today.

It’s holding up pretty well considering the whole market is down today. Would have thought it would have broken south if it was going too. Good support at 43p

I looked a few weeks back and there were only a few things on the site. Pretty impressive range now.

Is Debenhams a brand? I think of it as a retailer/platform. Somewhere you can get lots of brands under one roof. So it can never really be described as a dated brand. That’s the beauty, it can’t really go out of fashion, brands that go out of fashion stop selling and get replaced with more fashionable ones. Debenhams is iconic in the U.K. Are some of the brands dated that they sell? Maybe to one section of society, but I’d argue that they only exist if they are selling so what appeals to teens will not appeal to the more mature shoppers. So all in all I think Debenhams has more potential than Boohoo. (Which is just a brand for teenagers) it has a bigger target audience and will provide a platform for the boohoo group to service a growing customer base. I wonder if we could buy a similarly large platform in America that customers would recognise.

Current EPS forecast is 10.7. Average pe of 40 would see this at £4.28. I’m sure as the year develops and the price picks up some momentum we may well see higher pe valuation.... historically it’s reached 70 plus but let’s just say pe of 50. That would be £5.35 this year. Very plausible and very little risk at the all time low pe we are at now. BOO have made a lot of progress this year so should any of the aquisitions start delivering growth we may well see upgrades to both eps and pe valuation. Based on forward 2023 earnings of 13.7eps, this will be trading between £4.80 and £9.59 in two year time. So at £3.30 I think it represents a bargain. Worse case senario 45% growth over a year and half. Perhaps there are other shares with higher growth rates but they come with a lot more risk. So I see BOO as a good low risk stock to just buy and hold and a great stock if you can trade in and out of the highs and lows or at least add on the lows which is what I’ve done.

It was up 5 % briefly this am. Looks like it is still holding in that pennant. Volume starting to build on the hourly chart as we get closer to the 50ma. I’m pretty comfortable holding this mid term based on the expected results over summer. It will look very cheap then. Got to give it time

Eh they maintained last years guidance of 25% Rev growth.... which based on the fact that they always beat this I wouldn’t be surprised if they do it again.... someone at the ft wants to get in below £3. They’ll be lucky. But if anyone wants to sell at £3.10 I’ll be happy to buy. When this turn I think it will motor back up

The current pe is even lower than the pe valuation when the Covid collapse hit and then when we thought slavery allegation were going to take down the company. We are a stronger company and a better company now then we were before those crashes yet the valuation is the lowest it has ever been

Looking at historic values this was the first year in a while that the pe wasn’t in the mid forties on results day. Probably explains why we haven’t seen a big sell off. We are already near the bottom of the valuation. Historically speaking the current pe of 36.7 is the lowest the pe has ever been across the last 3- 4 years and for the last 3-4 years it has managed to reach >80 mid year. That mentality would justify a SP of £6.88 this year. So I think we’re being offered a bargain here . Even if we lowered expectations to a pe of 60 (which would be well below previous in year pe highs) we would see £5.16 this year. No brainier buy and hold

Like it affected it since conception? Online retail is a growth sector and has been outperforming the high street for some time because it’s cheaper and more convenient. Sure some traffic will go to shops as they open but so are bars, nightclubs and summer holidays to foreign countries, so I imagine Online retail stands to have a fantastic few months as people spend their furlough money getting ready for the party scene!! Everyone is very used to shopping on line now too, so if anything I think we will have seen an accelerator over the past year. Age groups buying on line out of necessity over lockdown whereas before they wouldn’t have considered it. Once you have the app on your phone it’s just so easy to get what you need, the first step of downloading it and changing your buyer mentality is the hard bit.

How on earth does the P/E ratio on that chart change intra-year without an update of results? As far as I’m concerned there are only two PE ratios. The current one based on last years earnings and the forward P/E ratio based on expected results. Current pe is 64.5 and the forward pe of about 35 which becomes the current pe tomorrow. The forward pe tomorrow will be be way less than 30. A bit of selling going on before results today and a lot of peeps commenting on the board who clearly would like to get in cheaper so are possibly sat on the side with cash. if the results are good I think there is going to be a rush to get back in

Hi joe

What is you max upside target? I was playing around with some numbers and trying to be conservative settled on 2.7eps as a forwards earnings target and a pe of 40 so £1.08. But then stockopedia is estimating 3.9 eps and the growth rate over the last two years would be 70 % so could easily hold a pe of 40. So potentially £1.56 not far fetched.

Taken a small position here. Came on my radar after stocklslam pi world. Quite a nice growth story so I see plenty of upside from here. Looks like we are in a bullish pendant so hopefully we might see it break out again next week.