Member Info for Hydr31

Kicking myself for not selling out at £12, twice!!! Now I’m looking at the chart and thinking signs were there, double top, change in sentiment. Held through it all and then I sold out in a panic on Friday by accident after getting a quote on my phone, had a sinking thinking all weekend, and have spent the weekend thinking I should buy back but then now the chart resembles a classic stage 4 stock and with sentiment against it I think it’s probably the worst time to buy back. It could well drop further... better to sit back and watch it play out and re-enter when sentiment eventually changes back. Can’t see it going back to £7 tomorrow. We have about 130 million cash so there’s an argument to say this should be 1.5x cash circa 200 million market cap.... yes undervalued on every other metric, but then it’s been undervalued since the beginning so perhaps the market isn’t using the metrics we’d like and it’s been heavily discounting it for the uncertainty that exists in future revenues. I’m sure long term well see a suitable pe valuation form but we might be talking a few years....we need better visibility of future revenues and most importantly growth in earnings to change sentiment

A statement of intent. £ 4 billion in sales

This is why I hold. That is where we are headed. At current profitability that would yield > 20 eps. Which trading on a pe of between 35-75 would deliver a share price of £7- £15. 1-4 bags over the next few years. I mean what’s the risk? Maybe they’ll be a pandemic or something and everything will shut

Probably creating a false sense of security too. Most teachers are meant to be testing twice a week. If they never see positives, then I bet they are wondering what all the fuss is about. It plays into the rhetoric that this is all blown out of proportion and why not break the rules and get on with your life. Bloody dangerous. Government should be exposed for this as they both wasting our money and are responsible for any missed positives.

My teacher friends tell me the lft’s are useless and half the teachers and students don’t even bother now. It’s surely not a coincident that the first positive lft I have experienced was actually a dud. How bad must they really be? What a waste of tax payers money.

All sent home from nursery on Thursday following a positive LFT. Over the weekend pcr comes back negative. I thought the lft’s were only meant to be dodgy on negative results!! Literally cost me a few days work and we still have to pay for almost that again for nursery days we couldn’t use. Government should be reimbursing people for lost time and money because of their decision to buy cheap.

People power the stockopedia estimate hasn’t been upgraded all year. It doesn’t take into account either the aquisitions we made in year or the increased growth rate at half year.... we will smash that estimate and be looking at an upgrade for 22. Which is what has happened every year since 2017 when I first bought in.

There aren’t any. They’ve already got the growth. What’s more price volatility is pretty much done and volume has dropped right off. Those who wanted to sell have sold. Results due very soon, so this is going to look very undervalued. Will it looking more undervalued than it does now cause selling or buying.

Current U.K. market for legionella testing. Legislation requires testing to be carried out by UKAS accredited labs and it’s a ten day test whereby they grow and isolate the bacteria. Rapid antigen/ dna tests have been around for a while but they are seen as flawed as they don’t tell you whether the bacteria was alive or dead. In most water applications we are dosing chemicals to kill the legionella. So a pcr test doesn’t necessarily distinguish between this and could potentially deliver false negatives. Hence the need for the ten day lab test which is not ideal as if it’s positive then you have potentially being operating contaminated systems for that time. Now if they could speed up the ten day lab turnaround somehow then they would be onto a winner

Available on gov website. Showing 9 million against primer design in October and 92 million in November. This would seem to suggest that our international revenues were massive as many of us both hoped and expected!! Great news.

Worst case scenario it would be 2 % of turnover which would be the bigger number. After all many companies are happy not to make profits.

All that would happen would be a 2% price increase. It’s hardly going to make a difference. A £10 top will cost £10.20. The consumers will still buy. If online eventually represents a larger revenue stream for hmrc it really will spell the end for the high street.

Do you think Ryanair will offer discounted seats based on you sitting next to someone who didn’t have the gold standard pcr?

The amount of tests required to get back to normal is huge. I would argue that there is going to be plenty to go round for all the pcr companies. Is 90 versalabs at one airport excessive.... maybe. The Manchester airport tender suggests there will be about 4 locations with multiple booths. (10-20) I guess initially demand will be lower than normal too so 40 versalabs might fit in line with that. In busy periods and In order to meet full capacity there will need to be a mix of pcr offerings and perhaps some being done off site the night before. But I imagine the convenience of booking your slot with a preflight test on site will be sold at a premium.

Perfect for supporting air travel. Get tested in the car park as you arrive and get your results at check in.

At its peak Manchester handles almost 30million passengers a year. On average 82,000 passengers a day.

82000/900 = 91 versalabs/mpl to handle

Revenue about £650,000 per day for the tests and that’s before you add on revenue for versalab, promate ect ect.

The tests alone over 12 months represent a £230 million pound market.... and that’s just one airport. Absolutely massive. Our target market just expanded x 20. Way bigger opportunity than the NHS contracts.

Burtons selling on asos too peoplepower.

I notice they are also hiring for senior territory account managers at the moment too. They wouldn’t be doing this if it were bad news I think. What stands out to me though is it confirms there is some sales happening. 200% of target and £52million in one territory. Phew we can relax a bit.

It doesn’t say she is looking for a new role? I used to keep my cv up to date on linked in. It’s ambitious and it’s a bit like Facebook in that your linked in with all your friends and colleagues too, so whilst you want it to look good, you can’t elaborate beyond the truth too much or you’d get called out.

Midlands territory account manager. 200% of target achieved. Supporting nhs roll out or q16/32s. And winterplex. £52million expected from territory. Sounds good. How many territories do we think they are operating.

The other thing to consider is that these forecasts don’t include a lot of the additional potential revenues, phase 2, nhs extension, airport testing, potential USA revenue and overseas revenues. It’s easy to get carried away. So on the current expected revenues I see it trading between £6-10 short term based on sentiment and based on growth and delivery of contracts and acquisitions we can realise £15 and beyond

Do we think the next aquisition would be covid related? Most Covid stocks are going to be expensive. Might be good timing wise to snap something up that’s not in the limelight. Or as in the IT-IS aquisition is already part of our supply chain

So based on your assessment I would say the market is looking forward to FY23 or beyond with the current valuation. Very pessimistic to not think in that time that the company might not develop into something bigger and better, but at the same time, there is a lot of work to be done to realise even those forecasts and so we should see the pe catch-up and expand providing we keep beating the forecasted revenues and the aquisitions and contracts ect start happening.