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I’ve done quite well on BOO just holding it and topping up when it drops on these ‘news’ stories. Can be a bit scary buying when it’s tanking but then it’s all total tosh and BOO are absolutely smashing it. On for 70% growth in eps again and setting a growth platform for the future in the recent aquisitions

I mean fleas is scraping the barrel as news stories go? I thought the environment angle would be a more obvious attack to do, but maybe they want to save that one for once we’ve reached £6.

It’s strange that these stories always turn up when we are about to break out of the triangle. One starts to think it’s coordinated to try and initiate a sell off. It’s running out of room now though...

So how fast does sentiment change when the extension/ phase 2/ aquisitions are announced? We know they are coming. We know the nhs probably have stock till the end of March. All these people moaning about the share price. This is the opportunity to buy. If you hadn’t already invested on the spike you would be looking at this totally differently. Double down or go long and come back in a month.

Jackin using angels recent forecasts we are looking at approximately 207 eps for year end to be announced in April. At current price of £7.61. Pe = 3.67

Looking forward to next year SP angel forecast approx 172 eps. At current price of £7.61 = forward pe of 4.4..

Yes this is cheap as diagnostic companies generally trade on pe of 10-15 so it feels as this is being discounted heavily for the reasons that earnings are set to decline and there is some uncertainty over future earnings.

I expect as we convert new sales opportunities and aquisitions and our future revenues become more certain that the market will deploy a more appropriate PE value. This combined with upgrades to eps expectations will see the sell price boom.

I’m struggling to see why BOO is down this morning. An online tax could potentially work in BOO’s favour. It would give current juggernauts who have achieved scale a moat. Prevent any smaller entities from entering the market place. It’s a costly thing achieving scale and this is the only reason why they are so competitive. An online tax is not going to magically bring the high street back. Convenience is the winner here. BOO and ASOS will continue to take market share and a tax protects them from losing share to smaller on line competitors.

If the government do decide to apply a tax it won’t be because they want to destroy online businesses. They don’t exactly have a great record in taking positive action to save failing businesses and jobs. It will be because they too can see an opportunity for our country to profit from a sustainable tax. They will want online to grow and produce more tax revenues. Let’s face it for the government previously they could only benefit on vat sold on our high streets. Online sales go beyond borders so perhaps the tax can be a lower percent and effectively be paid by the world rather than just the U.K.. not bad if you can get the world funding our country.

It threw me for a second as I was expecting 2022 to be bigger. Particularly if a considerable amount of revenue from the U.K. contract is in 2022. But I guess if you were Graham you would want to be uber conservative.

Thanks porky. So does this put us on a forward pe 2024 of circa 10 @ £ 8.

Given there is not going to be much growth in eps can this support a pe of 20?

I guess the question is....what is not baked in to this forecast?
Extension? Phase 2 ? Aquisitions?

Can we expect upgrades as things develop.?

Right you are hartlebury... based on that usage the NHS should be running out of supply by the end of March ?

Interesting to see that despite cases reducing rapidly that testing is (total tests) increasing, although pillar 1 (pcr) seems to have about reached capacity. I wonder if phase 2 is part of the plan for opening up the world and expanding pcr testing to more locations. It would make sense to be carrying out PCR in certain locations where outbreaks are identified, at borders, perhaps at schools, universities, GP’s, government key workers, supermarkets. The lfts are not accurate enough, especially when self administered and it only takes one positive variant to slip through the gaps and we have a economic melt down again.

Well over 700k of pcr tests carried out every day at the moment in the U.K. That’s approximately £5-6 million revenue and £3-4 million operating profit. So assuming Novacyt have at least 25% market share then they will be making at least £1,000,000 a day at the moment.... that’s just in the U.K..

Because western countries have dominated vaccine orders ordering quickly and in bulk, half the world won’t be getting vaccines any time soon. It is very likely we won’t achieve global immunity for years to come. This means increased likelihood of mutations, new variants, new vaccines and off course testing is here to stay.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-crisis-vaccine-apartheid-b1798326.html?amp

Since the first coronavirus drop and subsequent spike the price volatility has been contracting. Each spike smaller than the next as those who got spiked decide to cut their losses and sell out. But now the price volatility is much reduced and the sellers have almost sold out. This looks ready to break out to me. Would be nice if we got an acquisition announcement to help it’s on its way.

Plot the MA 100. This stock is has been supported by it for some time. It sits about £8.12 currently and that appears to be where the funds are trying to Hoover up shares. PIs selling above and funds buying in at about £8 which is providing the resistance. My bet is that we continue following the MA 100 as that’s where the funds see value.

There’s a neat little graph on the government website that shows the increases in PCR testing capacity across the year. It jumps about 150,000 a day in the last week October first week of November. ( if you take £150million and divide it be the £8 test you get approx 150,000 tests a day for the 4 months) If that’s your contract start date then it’s very possibly the renewal isn’t due until the end of February start of March anyway so I wouldn’t panic.

Alternatively If that’s just the timing around when we had completed training and got the first 200 units up and running, then potentially we haven’t fully utilised the capacity yet. So extension would be reviewing this and estimating forward requirements, but if they have plenty of stock no there would be no urgent need to review it yet, that doesn’t mean they won’t and it doesn’t mean they won’t be planning to expand testing as we come out of lockdown.

Overseas growth looks like it may have been 222% in h2 that’s where the bigger opportunity is. At that growth rate we’d be doing over 200million in the first six months of 2021. That’s without adding on anything from the DHSC. In order to hit the 380 million I don’t think we need phase 2 or the extension.... and that’s why phase 2 is a blue sky valuation

Totally agree. The big headline DHSC contracts are dominating the board and the valuation and the problem is it’s very binary. We either are getting the business or we are not.

What’s very apparent is there is a hell of a lot more growth and potential in rest of world sales.

In order for countries to open up and travel to go back to normal, countries are going to want to know that there is no chance of Covid in its many forms coming back in. You can’t do this with LFT, this all started because one infected person came into the country. Countries will demand accurate PCR testing as there is no way once we have vaccinated our population that we want to invite in the economic disaster of a new resistant strain . This is why phase 2 will happen and is also why it will be replicated around the world.

How many sales people are needed to close the DHSC deal? It’s just one opportunity. I expect 90% of the sales team are focusing on growth in other areas.

The long term trend remains unbroken here. We are just back to trading at the bottom of the channel. Providing it doesn’t break and go below about £7.50 the we are still on for £10-£15 by April and potentially £17-23 by December.

I can understand the drop. Market wanted more and we wanted forward looking statements to guarantee future earnings. What we got was uncertainty around phase 1, around whether it is going to be extended and about whether phase 2 will actually happen. All of this distracting from what looks to have been some great overseas growth.

So I believe the phase 1 extension and phase 2 are no longer baked into the price. I can’t imagine this won’t be extended and I really do think the plans for the world opening up again are going to need phase 2 to happen. LFT’s can be a useful tool in the fight but there are certain times and places that it needs to be pcr.

So all of this creates a unique opportunity. I’m sure the plan will be to deliver a forward looking operational update once phase 1 is extended and the SP will adjust accordingly.

I should also add.... no director sells and no TR1 from black rock to say they have reduced their holding....Me thinks the retail investors are panicking and giving their shares to the II’s and the market makers are making some commission!! The long term trend has not broken here.

Came through this morning on research tree and reiterates £14.65. Interestingly it confirms we are only in phase 1 of the U.K. contract and are negotiating extension currently. Which means there’s likely to be a lot of the U.K. contract in 2021 and therefore a greater international growth rate in 2020 than first perceived. ;

Revenues continued to grow within the period, with H220A accounting for 77% of the year’s revenues (H120A: €72.4m; H220A: €239.2m). Novacyt continues to support the NHS as part of a contract struck in September 2020 with the UK Department for Health and Social Care (DHSC) for the supply of COVID-19 testing products for up to six months. The initial phase involved the deployment of PCR instruments, related kits and support services with a minimum value of £150m for the first 14 weeks. Novacyt is in active discussions with the DHSC to extend this phase of the contract.

Fill your boots!!

It would be great if that landed tomorrow but I’m not concerned if it doesn’t. It will come... we’ve got a great year ahead of us. Extensions, new products, overseas growth, aquisitions. Short this at your peril!

Shaun P. Can an employer or organisation decide on the type of type . ie Antigen LFT or a PCR test?

I have been tested twice in the last week at a manufacturing site. It was LFT, had to perform it myself in the car which was near impossible trying to insert a stick into your brain so I think it will result in lots of false negatives. However, There is a news article circulating from this is money suggesting there is going to be a big roll out to employers, mainly of LFT tests and that Novacyt is a major supplier. Just joining the dots but is this the Novacyt LFT that we had in development?